Reshoring supply chains: Kev sib tw los tsim hauv zos

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• Tej zaum 16, 2023

Ntev tau suav tias yog ib qho loj, sib cuam tshuam kev lag luam, cov saw hlau thoob ntiaj teb tau ntsib kev cuam tshuam thiab kev tsis sib haum xeeb thaum lub sijhawm COVID-19 muaj thoob qhov txhia chaw. Qhov kev txhim kho no ua rau cov tuam txhab rov xav dua yog tias cia siab rau ob peb tus neeg muag khoom thiab cov saw hlau xa khoom yog qhov kev nqis peev zoo mus tom ntej.

Reshoring khoom chains ntsiab lus

Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam tau hais tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam ntau tshaj $ 22 trillion USD hauv 2021, ntau dua kaum npaug ntawm cov nyiaj los ntawm 1980. Kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thiab cov kev loj hlob tseem ceeb hauv thaj av tau cuam tshuam cov tuam txhab kom rov tsim kho lawv cov saw hlau los ntawm kev ntxiv cov chaw tsim khoom thiab cov neeg muag khoom hauv Mexico, Romania, Tuam Tshoj, thiab Nyab Laj, ntawm lwm lub tebchaws raug nqi.

Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog 2020 COVID-19 kev sib kis, tsis yog cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam yuav tsum rov xav txog lawv cov saw hlau, tab sis lawv kuj yuav tsum ua kom lawv nrawm dua thiab ruaj khov. Nrog rau qhov ze-shoring ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam thiab kev tswj hwm tshiab, xws li European Union (EU) cov se carbon ciam teb, nws yog qhov tseeb tias tsim cov qauv khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb yuav tsum hloov pauv.

Raws li 2022 Ernst & Young (EY) Industrial Supply Chain Survey, 45 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg teb tau hais tias lawv tau ntsib kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev xa khoom xa mus qeeb, thiab 48 feem pua ​​​​tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev tsim cov tswv yim tsis txaus lossis qeeb. Cov neeg teb feem ntau (56 feem pua) kuj pom cov khoom siv tswv yim nce nqi.

Ib cag ntawm cov kev sib tw kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, nws yuav tsum tau rov tsim kho cov saw hlau vim muaj cov xwm txheej hauv ntiaj teb, xws li xyoo 2022 kev tawm tsam Lavxias ntawm Ukraine thiab kev nce nqi hauv lwm lub tebchaws. Cov tuam txhab lag luam feem ntau tau ua cov kauj ruam los hloov lawv cov kev tswj cov khoom siv, xws li kev sib raug zoo nrog cov neeg muag khoom tam sim no thiab cov chaw tsim khoom thiab txav ntau lawm los ze zog rau qhov chaw lawv cov neeg siv khoom.

Kev cuam tshuam

Raws li EY txoj kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam, kev hloov kho cov saw hlau loj tseem tab tom pib. Kwv yees li ntawm 53 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg teb hais tias lawv tau nyob ze ntawm ntug dej lossis rov ua haujlwm qee qhov kev ua haujlwm txij li xyoo 2020, thiab 44 feem pua ​​​​xav tias yuav ua li ntawd los ntawm 2024. Thaum 57 feem pua ​​​​tau tsim cov haujlwm tshiab hauv lwm lub tebchaws txij li xyoo 2020, thiab 53 feem pua ​​​​yog npaj ua. yog li ntawm 2024.

Txhua cheeb tsam tab tom siv nws cov tswv yim decoupling. Cov tuam txhab hauv North America tau pib txav ntau lawm thiab cov neeg muag khoom nyob ze rau hauv tsev kom txo tau cov teeb meem thiab tshem tawm kev ncua. Tshwj xeeb, tsoomfwv Meskas tau nce nws cov kev txhawb nqa hauv tsev rau kev tsim khoom thiab kev tsim khoom. Lub caij no, automakers thoob plaws lub ntiaj teb tau pib nqis peev hauv lub tsheb hluav taws xob hauv tsev (EV) roj teeb tsim khoom; cov kev nqis peev ntawm lub Hoobkas no tau tsav los ntawm kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias kev xav tau yav tom ntej rau EVs yuav siab heev thiab cov khoom lag luam xav tau tsawg dua rau kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov koom nrog Tuam Tshoj thiab Russia.

Cov tuam txhab European kuj tseem rov ua lawv cov kab ntau lawm thiab tau hloov pauv cov chaw muag khoom. Txawm li cas los xij, tag nrho ntawm cov tswv yim no tseem nyuaj rau ntsuas, xav txog kev ua tsov rog ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine txij li xyoo 2022. Ukrainian cov khoom lag luam teeb meem nrog cov khoom thiab kev sib tw logistics thiab Lavxias airspace kaw cuam tshuam rau Asia-Europe cargo txoj kev tau thawb cov tuam txhab European kom hloov mus ntxiv. lawv cov khoom siv tactics.

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Reshoring supply chains

Kev cuam tshuam dav dav ntawm kev hloov pauv cov khoom siv khoom lag luam tuaj yeem suav nrog: 

• Cov tuam txhab lag luam nqis peev hauv 3D-luam thev naus laus zis los hloov cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev.
• Automotive tuam txhab uas muag xaiv los ntawm cov chaw muag khoom hauv zos thiab tsim cov roj teeb cog ze ze rau qhov chaw uas lawv lub khw nyob. Tsis tas li ntawd, lawv kuj tseem tuaj yeem hloov qee qhov kev tsim tawm ntawm Tuam Tshoj los ntawm North America, Europe, thiab lwm qhov chaw ntawm Asia.
• Cov tuam txhab tshuaj tau nthuav dav lawv cov peev txheej hauv Asmeskas, Is Nrias teb, thiab lwm lub tebchaws Esxias.
• Tuam Tshoj tsim nws cov chaw tsim khoom hauv zos kom dhau los ua tus kheej txaus, suav nrog kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb los ua tus xa khoom tseem ceeb EV.
• Cov teb chaws tsim kev lag luam hnyav heev los tsim lawv lub khoos phis tawj tsim cov chaw tsim khoom hauv tsev, uas muaj cov ntawv thov thoob plaws txhua qhov kev lag luam, suav nrog cov tub rog.

Cov lus nug los tawm tswv yim

• Yog tias koj ua haujlwm hauv cov khoom siv saw hlau, lwm cov tswv yim decoupling yog dab tsi?
• Kev txiav txim siab puas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev sib raug zoo thoob ntiaj teb? Yog muaj, ua li cas?
• Koj xav li cas qhov kev txiav txim siab no yuav cuam tshuam rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov teb chaws tsim?