Quantumrun

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South America; Continent of Revolution: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 10:49

Kuneneratu kosagwirizana kumeneku kudzayang'ana kwambiri ku South America geopolitics malinga ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, muwona South America yomwe ikulimbana ndi chilala pamene ikuyesera kuteteza kusowa kwazinthu zonse. ndi kubwerera kofalikira ku maulamuliro ankhanza ankhondo a 1960s mpaka 90s.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale ku South America - silinachotsedwepo. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani ngati Gwynne Dyer, a. wolemba wamkulu m'munda uno. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Water

Pofika m'zaka za m'ma 2040, kusintha kwa nyengo kudzachititsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa mvula yapachaka ku South America chifukwa cha kukula kwa maselo a Hadley. Mayiko omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi chilala chomwe chikuchitikachi ndi Central America, kuyambira ku Guatemala mpaka ku Panama, komanso kudera lakumpoto kwa South America, kuyambira ku Columbia mpaka ku French Guiana. Chile, chifukwa cha mapiri ake, imathanso kukumana ndi chilala choopsa.

Mayiko omwe azidzayenda bwino kwambiri (kunena pang'ono) pankhani ya mvula aphatikiza Ecuador, theka lakumwera kwa Columbia, Paraguay, Uruguay, ndi Argentina. Dziko la Brazil lili pakatikati chifukwa gawo lake lalikulu lidzakhala ndi kusinthasintha kwa mvula.

Mayiko ena akumadzulo monga Columbia, Peru, ndi Chile, akadasangalalabe ndi nkhokwe zambiri zamadzi amchere, koma ngakhale maderawo ayamba kuwona kuchepa pamene mitsinje yawo iyamba kuuma. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa chakuti mvula ikagwa pang’onopang’ono idzachititsa kuti madzi a m’mphepete mwa nyanja a Orinoco ndi Amazon achepe, amene amadyetsa madzi ambiri opanda mchere m’kontinentiyi. Kutsika kumeneku kudzakhudza magawo awiri ofunika kwambiri azachuma aku South America: chakudya ndi mphamvu.

Food

Ndi kusintha kwa nyengo kutenthetsa dziko lapansi mpaka madigiri awiri kapena anayi pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, madera ambiri a ku South America sadzakhala ndi mvula yokwanira komanso madzi kuti azilima chakudya chokwanira cha anthu ake. Pamwamba pa izo, mbewu zina zomwe sizimakula sizingamere pa kutentha kokweraku.

Mwachitsanzo, maphunziro oyendetsedwa ndi University of Reading anapeza kuti mitundu iwiri ya mpunga yomwe imabzalidwa kwambiri, ya m’zigwa imasonyeza ndi upland japonica, anali pachiwopsezo cha kutentha kwambiri. Makamaka, ngati kutentha kupitirira madigiri 35 Celsius pa nthawi ya maluwa, zomerazo zimakhala zopanda kanthu, zomwe sizimapereka mbewu zochepa. Mayiko ambiri a m’madera otentha kumene mpunga uli chakudya chachikulu kwambiri, ali m’mphepete mwa chigawo cha kutentha kwa Goldilocks, choncho kutentha kwina kulikonse kungabweretse tsoka. Kuopsa komweku kulinso ku mbewu zambiri za ku South America monga nyemba, chimanga, chinangwa, ndi khofi.

William Cline, yemwe ndi mkulu wa bungwe la Peterson Institute for International Economics, ananena kuti kutenthedwa kwa nyengo ku South America kungachititse kuti zokolola za m’mafamu zichepe ndi 20 mpaka 25 peresenti.

Chitetezo cha mphamvu

Zingadabwe anthu kudziwa kuti mayiko ambiri ku South America ndi atsogoleri mu mphamvu zobiriwira. Mwachitsanzo, dziko la Brazil lili ndi limodzi mwa mayiko amene ali ndi mphamvu zobiriwira kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zimapanga mphamvu zoposa 75 peresenti kuchokera ku zomera zopangira magetsi amadzi. Koma pamene chigawochi chikuyamba kukumana ndi chilala chowonjezereka komanso chokhalitsa, kuthekera kwa kusokoneza mphamvu kwamphamvu (zonse za bulauni ndi kuzimitsidwa kwa magetsi) zikhoza kuwonjezeka chaka chonse. Chilala chotalikirachi chingawonongenso zokolola za nzimbe za dzikolo, zomwe zidzakweza mtengo wa ethanol kwa magalimoto amtundu wa flex-fuel (poganiza kuti dzikolo silidzasinthira ku magalimoto amagetsi panthawiyo).

Kuwonjezeka kwa autocrats

Kwa nthawi yayitali, kuchepa kwa madzi, chakudya, ndi chitetezo champhamvu ku South America, monga momwe chiwerengero cha anthu akukontinenti chikukwera kuchoka pa 430 miliyoni mu 2018 kufika pafupifupi 500 miliyoni pofika 2040, ndi njira yobweretsera zipolowe ndi zipolowe. Maboma osauka kwambiri atha kugwera m'malo olephera, pomwe ena angagwiritse ntchito magulu awo ankhondo kuti akhazikitse bata pogwiritsa ntchito malamulo okhazikika ankhondo. Maiko omwe akukumana ndi kusintha kwanyengo, monga Brazil ndi Argentina, atha kukhalabe ndi demokalase, koma akuyeneranso kukulitsa chitetezo chawo kumalire ndi kusefukira kwa anthu othawa kwawo chifukwa cha nyengo kapena oyandikana nawo omwe ali ndi mwayi koma ankhondo akumpoto.

Zochitika zina ndizotheka kutengera momwe maiko aku South America akuphatikizana pazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi kudzera m'mabungwe monga UNASUR ndi ena. Ngati mayiko aku South America avomereza kugawana nawo zopezeka m'madzi aku continent, komanso kugawana nawo ndalama panjira yophatikizira zoyendera ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa zapadziko lonse lapansi, mayiko aku South America atha kukhalabe okhazikika panthawi yosinthira nyengo yamtsogolo.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Choyamba, kumbukirani kuti zomwe mwawerengazi ndi kulosera chabe, osati zenizeni. Ndizolosera zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingatheke ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa 2040s kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo (zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane mndandanda). Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa: