Mafuta apamwamba: Kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta kwakanthawi kochepa kukwera ndikufika pachimake chapakati pazaka

• Author:
• Dzina la wolemba

  Quantumrun Foresight
• August 3, 2022

Chidule cha chidziwitso

Mafuta apamwamba, omwe kale anali chenjezo la kuchepa kwa mafuta, tsopano akuwoneka ngati nthawi yomwe kufunikira kwa mafuta kudzachepa chifukwa cha mphamvu zina. Makampani akuluakulu amafuta akusintha kusinthaku pochepetsa kupanga mafuta ndicholinga chofuna kutulutsa mafuta opanda ziro, pomwe mayiko ena amawoneratu kufunikira kwamafuta mpaka 2030, kutsatiridwa ndi kuchepa. Kusintha kosiyana ndi mafuta kumabweretsa zovuta monga kukwera kwamitengo komwe kungachitike m'magawo omwe amadalira mafuta komanso kufunika kophunzitsidwa ntchito zatsopano ndi kukonzanso moyenera m'mafakitale opangira mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa.

Mlingo wamafuta ochepa

Pakugwedezeka kwamafuta mu 2007-8, ofotokozera nkhani ndi mphamvu adabwezeretsanso mawu akuti mafuta ochulukirapo kwa anthu, kuchenjeza za nthawi yomwe kufunikira kwamafuta kudzapitilira kupezeka, zomwe zikubweretsa nthawi yakusowa kwamphamvu kwanthawi zonse komanso mikangano. Kutsika kwakukulu kwachuma kwa 2008-9 kunatsimikizira mwachidule machenjezowa, kutanthauza kuti, mpaka mitengo yamafuta idakwera m'zaka za m'ma 2010, makamaka mu 2014. Masiku ano, mafuta okwera kwambiri asinthidwa kukhala tsiku lamtsogolo pamene kufunikira kwa mafuta kudzakwera kwambiri ndikulowa pansi. chifukwa cha kukwera kwa njira zina zopangira mphamvu.

Mu Disembala 2021, kampani yamafuta ndi gasi ya Anglo-Dutch Shell idati ikuyembekeza kuti mafuta ake atsika ndi 1 mpaka 2 peresenti pachaka, atakwera kwambiri mu 2019. Mu Seputembara 2018, kampaniyo idalengeza zakukonzekera kukhala kampani yotulutsa mpweya wopanda ziro pofika chaka cha 2021, kuphatikiza mpweya womwe umapangidwa kuchokera kuzinthu zomwe imatulutsa ndikugulitsa. British Petroleum ndi Total alumikizana ndi Shell ndi makampani ena amafuta ndi gasi ku Europe podzipereka pakusintha kukhala mphamvu yokhazikika. Kudzipereka uku kupangitsa kuti makampaniwa alembe mabiliyoni a madola muzinthu, zolimbikitsidwa ndi maulosi oti kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta padziko lonse lapansi sikungabwererenso ku mliri wa COVID-2050 usanachitike. Malinga ndi zomwe Shell akuganiza, mafuta a kampaniyo atha kutsika ndi 19 peresenti pofika 18 ndi 2030 peresenti pofika 45.

Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, mafuta aku China akuyembekezeka kukwera pakati pa 2022 ndi 2030 chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwamphamvu kwamakampani ndi mphamvu zamagetsi, kufika pachimake cha matani pafupifupi 780 miliyoni pachaka pofika 2030. Komabe, malinga ndi CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, kufunika kwamafuta onse zitha kutsika pambuyo pa 2030 pomwe kugwiritsa ntchito mayendedwe kutsika chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa magalimoto amagetsi. Kufuna kwamafuta kumakampani opanga mankhwala kukuyembekezeka kukhala kosasintha nthawi yonseyi.

Zosokoneza

Kuchotsedwa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa mafuta pachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi ndi njira zoperekera mafuta kukuwonetsa kusintha kwazinthu zokhazikika. M'zaka za m'ma 2030, kukhazikitsidwa kwa matekinoloje obiriwira ngati magalimoto amagetsi ndi mafuta ongowonjezedwanso, kuphatikiza ma hydrogen obiriwira, akuyembekezeka kukwera. Njira zina izi zitha kukhala zotsika mtengo kuposa mafuta, kulimbikitsa kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwakukulu ndikuthandizira kusintha kwa magwero amagetsi oyeretsa.

Kuchulukitsa kwamphamvu kwamagetsi ongowonjezedwanso kungapangitse magawo, monga ma cabling amagetsi ndi kusungirako mabatire. Kukula kumeneku kungapangitse mwayi watsopano wa ntchito ndikulimbikitsa ntchito zachuma m'maderawa. Komabe, ndikofunikira kuwonetsetsa kuti ogwira ntchito akuphunzitsidwa mokwanira ndikukonzekera kusinthaku. Kuphatikiza apo, kupanga njira zobwezeretsanso bwino komanso zotayira mabatire ndi zida zina zongowonjezwdwanso zitha kukhala zofunikira kuti zithandizire kuwononga chilengedwe.

Kumbali inayi, kuchepa kwachangu kwamafuta kumatha kukhala ndi zotsatira zosayembekezereka. Kutsika kwadzidzidzi kwamafuta kungayambitse kukwera kwamitengo, zomwe zingakhudze mabizinesi omwe amadalira mafuta, makamaka pazantchito ndi ulimi. Izi zitha kupangitsa kuti mitengo yonyamula katundu ndi zinthu zaulimi ziwonjezeke, zomwe zitha kupangitsa kuti pakhale njala yapadziko lonse lapansi komanso zokwera mtengo zogulira kunja. Choncho, kusintha kokonzekera bwino komanso pang'onopang'ono kuchoka ku mafuta ndikofunikira kuti tipeze nthawi yopangira mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu komanso kusintha mabizinesi kuti agwirizane ndi mphamvu zatsopano.

Zotsatira za mafuta ochulukirapo

Zotsatira zakukula kwa kupanga mafuta komwe kukulowa pakuchepa zingaphatikizepo:

• Kuchepetsa kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe ndi nyengo chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa mpweya wa carbon.
• Maiko omwe amadalira mafuta ndi gasi omwe amatumizidwa kunja akukumana ndi kuchepa kwakukulu kwa ndalama zomwe amapeza, zomwe zingathe kukankhira mayikowa m'mavuto azachuma komanso kusakhazikika pazandale.
• Maiko omwe ali ndi mphamvu zambiri zokolola mphamvu zadzuwa (mwachitsanzo, Morocco ndi Australia) atha kukhala ogulitsa magetsi obiriwira mu mphamvu ya solar ndi green hydrogen.
• Mayiko otukuka akuchotsa chuma chawo kuchoka ku mayiko omwe akutumiza mphamvu kunja. Muzochitika zina, izi zingayambitse nkhondo zochepa pa malonda a magetsi; muzochitika zotsutsana, izi zingapangitse kuti mayiko azitha kumenyana nkhondo pamalingaliro ndi ufulu wa anthu.
• Mabiliyoni m'zithandizo zamagetsi aboma zomwe zimaperekedwa pakuchotsa kaboni ndikutumizidwa kuzinthu zamagetsi zobiriwira kapena mapulogalamu azachitukuko.
• Kuwonjezeka kwa zomangamanga zamagetsi a dzuwa ndi mphepo m'madera omwe angatheke komanso kusintha ma gridi a dziko kuti athandize magetsiwa.

Mafunso oyenera kuwaganizira

• Kodi maboma aletse kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta m'magawo ena, kapena kodi kusintha kwa msika waulere kupita ku mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso kuloledwa kupita patsogolo mwachilengedwe, kapena china chake pakati?
• Kodi kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta kungakhudze bwanji ndale zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi zachuma?