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I-Russia, umbuso ubuyela emuva: I-Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 12:42

Lesi sibikezelo esihle ngokumangazayo sizogxila kupolitiki yezwe laseRussia njengoba kuhlobana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu phakathi konyaka ka-2040 no-2050. Njengoba ufunda uqhubeke, uzobona iRussia ezuze ngokulinganayo ngesimo sezulu esishisayo—isebenzisa indawo yayo ukuze ivikele iYurophu. kanye namazwekazi ase-Asia kusukela endlaleni ngokuphelele, futhi ukuze aphinde athole isikhundla sokuba amandla amakhulu omhlaba kule nqubo.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sithombe esifushane—leli kusasa lezwe laseRussia—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni. Konke osuzokufunda kusekelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela kokubili e-United States nase-United Kingdom, uchungechunge lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezihlangene nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli ezifana no-Gwynne Dyer, a. umbhali ophambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

I-Russia iyanda

Ngokungafani neningi lomhlaba, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzokwenza iRussia ibe ngumnqobi ophelele ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040. Isizathu salo mbono omuhle kungenxa yokuthi lokho okuyi-tundra ewudedangendlale, ebanda kakhulu namuhla izoshintsha ibe indawo enkulukazi yomhlaba wonke elinywayo, ngenxa yesimo sezulu esisanda kumiswa esizoncibilikisa ingxenye enkulu yezwe. IRussia iphinde ithokozele ezinye zezitolo ezicebe kakhulu zamanzi ahlanzekile emhlabeni, futhi ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, izojabulela imvula engaphezu kweyake yaqoshwa. Wonke la manzi—ngaphezu kweqiniso lokuthi izinsuku zawo zokulima zingahlala amahora ayishumi nesithupha noma ngaphezulu ezindaweni eziphakeme—kusho ukuthi iRussia izojabulela uguquko lwezolimo.

Ngobulungiswa, iCanada kanye namazwe aseScandinavia nawo azojabulela izinzuzo zokulima ezifanayo. Kepha njengoba inzuzo yaseCanada ingaphansi kokulawulwa kweMelika ngokungaqondile kanye namazwe aseScandinavia azabalaza ukuthi angaminzi ekukhuphukeni kwezinga eliphezulu lolwandle, yiRussia kuphela ezoba namandla okuzimela, amandla ezempi, kanye nekhono lezwe lokusebenzisa insalela yokudla kwayo ukukhulisa amandla ayo emhlabeni. .

Ukudlala amandla

Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040, ingxenye enkulu ye-Southern Europe, yonke i-Middle East, kanye nezindawo ezinkulu zaseShayina zizobona amapulazi abo akhiqiza kakhulu oma abe izingwadule ezingenamsebenzi ezingenamsebenzi. Kuzoba nemizamo yokutshala ukudla emapulazini amakhulu aqonde ngqo phezulu nangaphakathi, kanye nokwenza unjiniyela izitshalo ezimelana nesomiso, kodwa asikho isiqinisekiso sokuthi lezi zindlela ezintsha zizokwenza ngcono ukulahlekelwa kokukhiqizwa kokudla emhlabeni wonke.

Ngena eRussia. Njengoba nje isebenzisa inqolobane yayo yegesi yemvelo ukuze ixhase isabelomali sayo sikazwelonke futhi igcine izinga lethonya komakhelwane bayo baseYurophu, izwe lizosebenzisa nensalela yalo yokudla yesikhathi esizayo ngendlela efanayo. Isizathu siwukuthi kuzoba nezinhlobonhlobo zezinye izindlela esikhundleni segesi yemvelo emashumini eminyaka azayo, kodwa ngeke kube khona izindlela eziningi ezingasetshenziswa esikhundleni sokulima ngezinga lezimboni ezidinga indawo enkulu yokulima.

Konke lokhu ngeke kwenzeke ngokuphazima kweso, we-couuse-ikakhulukazi ngemuva kwesikhala samandla esishiywe nguPutin ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020-kodwa njengoba izimo zokulima ziqala ukuba zimbi ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020, okusele kweRussia entsha kuzothengisa kancane noma kuqashiswe. kusuka ezindaweni ezinkulu zomhlaba ongathuthukisiwe ezinhlanganweni zamazwe ngamazwe zokulima (Big Agri). Umgomo walokhu kudayiswa kuzoba ukuheha izigidigidi zamaRandi zokutshalwa kwezimali kwamazwe ngamazwe ukuze kwakhiwe ingqalasizinda yezolimo, ngaleyo ndlela kwandiswe insalela yokudla yaseRussia namandla okuxoxisana ngomakhelwane bayo emashumini eminyaka ezayo.

Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040, lolu hlelo luzothola izinzuzo. Njengoba amazwe ambalwa kangaka athumela ukudla kwamanye amazwe, iRussia izoba namandla acishe abe yi-monopoly amanani ezimakethe zomhlaba jikelele zempahla yokudla. I-Russia izobe isisebenzisa le ngcebo esanda kutholwa yokuthekelisa ukudla ukuze ithuthukise ingqalasizinda yayo nezempi ngokushesha, ukuze iqinisekise ukwethembeka kumasathelayithi ayo angaphambili eSoviet, futhi ithenge impahla yezwe ecindezelekile komakhelwane bayo besifunda. Ngokwenza kanjalo, iRussia izophinde ithole isikhundla sayo samandla amakhulu futhi iqinisekise ukubusa kwezepolitiki isikhathi eside phezu kweYurophu naseMpumalanga Ephakathi, iphushele i-US eceleni kwezwe. Kodwa-ke, iRussia izoqhubeka nokubhekana nenselelo ye-geopolitical empumalanga.

Abalingani beSilk Road

Entshonalanga, iRussia izoba nedlanzana lamazwe athembekile, angaphambili aseSoviet asebenza njengezivimbeli ngokumelene nababaleki besimo sezulu baseYurophu naseNyakatho Afrika. Eningizimu, iRussia izojabulela ngisho nezithiyo ezengeziwe, kuhlanganise nezithiyo ezinkulu zemvelo njengezintaba zaseCaucasus, amazwe amaningi angaphambili ayengamaSoviet (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, neKyrgyzstan), kanye nozakwabo ongathathi hlangothi eMongolia. Empumalanga, nokho, iRussia yabelana ngomngcele omkhulu neChina, ongavinjwa nhlobo yinoma yimuphi umgoqo wemvelo.

Lo mngcele ungase ube usongo olukhulu njengoba iChina ingakaze ibone ngokugcwele izimangalo zaseRussia phezu kwemingcele yayo yangaphambili yomlando. Futhi ngeminyaka yawo-2040, inani labantu baseShayina lizokhula libe ngaphezu kwabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.4 (iphesenti elikhulu labo elizobe selizothatha umhlalaphansi), kuyilapho libhekene nokumpintshana okubangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu emandleni okulima ezwe. Njengoba ibhekene nenani labantu elandayo futhi elilambile, iChina izophendulela iso elinomona ezindaweni zokulima zaseRussia ezisempumalanga ukuze igweme eminye imibhikisho kanye nezibhelu ezingase zisongele amandla kahulumeni.

Kulesi simo, iRussia izoba nezinto ezimbili ongakhetha kuzo: Hlanganisa amasosha ayo ngasemngceleni weRussia-China futhi okungenzeka kuqubule ingxabano nelinye lamabutho amahlanu aphambili emhlabeni kanye namandla enuzi, noma ingasebenzisana namaShayina ngokwezokuxhumana ngokuwaqashisa ingxenye ethile. endaweni yaseRussia.

I-Russia cishe izokhetha inketho yokugcina ngezizathu eziningi. Okokuqala, umfelandawonye ne-China uzosebenza njenge-counterweight ngokumelene ne-US geopolitical dominance, futhi uqinise isimo sayo sokwakhiwa kabusha kwamandla amakhulu. Ukwengeza, iRussia ingazuza kulwazi lwaseChina lokwakha amaphrojekthi wengqalasizinda emikhulu, ikakhulukazi njengoba ingqalasizinda egugile ibilokhu ingenye yobuthakathaka obukhulu baseRussia.

Futhi ekugcineni, inani labantu baseRussia okwamanje liphansi kakhulu. Noma ngabe izigidi zabantu abavela kwamanye amazwe baseRussia bebuyela ezweni besuka emazweni ayengamaSoviet, ngeminyaka yawo-2040 lisazodinga izigidi ezengeziwe ukuze ligcwalise umhlabathi walo omkhulu futhi lakhe umnotho ozinzile. Ngakho-ke, ngokuvumela ababaleki baseShayina ukuba bafuduke futhi bahlale ezifundazweni ezisempumalanga yeRussia ezingenabantu abambalwa, leli zwe ngeke ligcine ngokuthola abasebenzi abaningi emkhakheni walo wezolimo kodwa futhi libhekane nokukhathazeka kwalo kwabantu okuhlala isikhathi eside—ikakhulukazi uma liphumelela ukubashintsha. zibe izakhamizi zaseRussia ezihlala njalo nezithembekile.

Ukubuka okude

Nakuba iRussia izosebenzisa kabi amandla ayo amasha, ukuthunyelwa kwayo kokudla kwamanye amazwe kuyoba okubalulekile kubantu baseYurophu, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, nase-Asia abasengozini yendlala. I-Russia izozuza kakhulu njengoba imali engenayo yokuthumela ukudla ngaphandle kokunxephezela imali engenayo elahlekile ngesikhathi umhlaba usushintshela kumandla avuselelekayo (uguquko oluzokwenza buthaka ibhizinisi layo lokuthekelisa igesi), kodwa ukuba khona kwayo kuzoba ngenye yezindlela ezimbalwa zokuzinzisa ukuwa okuphelele kwezifundazwe kuwo wonke amazwekazi. Sekushiwo lokho, omakhelwane bayo kuzofanele basebenzise ingcindezi encane abanayo ukuze baxwayise iRussia ngokugxambukela ezinhlelweni ezizayo zokulungisa isimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke—njengoba iRussia izoba nazo zonke izizathu zokugcina umhlaba ufudumele ngangokunokwenzeka.

Izizathu zethemba

Okokuqala, khumbula ukuthi lokho osanda kukufunda kuwukubikezela kuphela, hhayi iqiniso. Kuphinde kube isibikezelo esilotshwe ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi okuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje nama-2040s ukubhekana nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu (okuningi kwakho kuzovezwa esiphethweni sochungechunge). Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukuze kunciphe futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: