I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

I-South America; Izwekazi lenguquko: I-Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 10:49

Lesi sibikezelo esingesihle sizogxila kupolitiki yaseNingizimu Melika njengoba sihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu phakathi konyaka ka-2040 no-2050. Njengoba ufunda, uzobona iNingizimu Melika edonsa kanzima ukulwa nesomiso ngenkathi izama ukuvimbela kokubili ukushoda kwezinsiza. kanye nokubuya okusabalele embusweni wobushiqela wezempi wama-1960 kuya kowo-90.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sithombe esifushane—leli kusasa lezwe laseNingizimu Melika—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni omncane. Konke osuzokufunda kusekelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela kokubili e-United States nase-United Kingdom, uchungechunge lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezihlangene nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli ezifana no-Gwynne Dyer, a. umbhali ophambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

Water

Ngeminyaka yawo-2040, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzodala ukwehla okukhulu kwemvula yonyaka kulo lonke elaseNingizimu Melika ngenxa yokwanda kwamaseli e-Hadley. Amazwe ahlaselwe kakhulu yilesomiso esiqhubekayo azohlanganisa yonke iMelika Ephakathi, kusukela eGuatemala kunqamule ePanama, nangaphesheya kwechopho elisenyakatho yeNingizimu Melika—kusuka eColumbia kuya eFrench Guiana. I-Chile, ngenxa yendawo yayo enezintaba, ingase futhi ibe nesomiso esibi kakhulu.

Amazwe azophila kangcono (uma siqhathanisa) nemvula azohlanganisa i-Ecuador, ingxenye eseningizimu ye-Columbia, iParaguay, i-Uruguay, ne-Argentina. I-Brazil ihlezi phakathi nendawo njengoba indawo yayo enkulu izoqukatha ukushintshashintsha kwemvula okukhudlwana.

Amanye amazwe asentshonalanga kakhulu njengeColumbia, iPeru, neChile, asazojabulela ingcebo yezindawo ezigcina amanzi ahlanzekile, kodwa nalezo zindawo ezigcina amanzi zizoqala ukubona ukwehla njengoba imisele yazo iqala ukoma. Kungani? Ngoba ukuncipha kwemvula ekugcineni kuzoholela emazingeni aphansi amanzi ahlanzekile ohlelweni lwe-Orinoco ne-Amazon River, ondla amanzi amaningi ahlanzekile ezwenikazi. Lokhu kwehla kuzothinta izingxenye ezimbili ezibalulekile ngokulinganayo emnothweni waseNingizimu Melika: ukudla namandla.

Ukudla

Ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kufudumeza Umhlaba kuze kufike kuma-degree Celsius amabili kuya kwamane ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040, izingxenye eziningi zaseNingizimu Melika ngeke zibe nemvula eyanele kanye namanzi okukhulisa ukudla okwanele kubantu bakhona. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezinye izitshalo eziyisisekelo ngeke zikhule kulawa mazinga okushisa aphakeme.

Ngokwesibonelo, izifundo eziqhutshwa yi-University of Reading bathola ukuthi izinhlobo ezimbili zerayisi ezitshalwa kakhulu, indawo ephansi indica kanye ne-upland japonica, zazisengozini emazingeni okushisa aphezulu. Ngokukhethekile, uma amazinga okushisa edlula ama-degree Celsius angama-35 ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza, izitshalo zizoba yinyumba, zinikeze okusanhlamvu okuncane. Amazwe amaningi asezindaweni ezishisayo lapho irayisi liwukudla okuyisisekelo okuyinhloko asevele esemaphethelweni ale ndawo yokushisa ye-Goldilocks, ngakho noma yikuphi ukufudumala okwengeziwe kungase kusho inhlekelele. Le ngozi efanayo ikhona ezitshalweni eziningi eziyisisekelo zaseNingizimu Melika njengobhontshisi, ummbila, umdumbula, nekhofi.

UWilliam Cline, umlingani omkhulu, i-Peterson Institute for International Economics, ulinganisela ukuthi ukufudumala kwesimo sezulu eNingizimu Melika kungase kubangele ukwehla kwesivuno sasemapulazini ngamaphesenti angaba ngu-20 kuya kwangu-25.

Ukuphepha kwamandla

Kungase kumangaze abantu ukwazi ukuthi amazwe amaningi aseNingizimu Melika abaholi bamandla aluhlaza. Ngokwesibonelo, iBrazil inenye yezingxube ezikhiqiza amandla aluhlaza kunawo wonke emhlabeni, ikhiqiza amandla angaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-75 ezitshalweni eziphehla ugesi ngamanzi. Kodwa njengoba isifunda siqala ukubhekana nesomiso esikhulayo nesaphakade, amandla okuphazamiseka kukagesi okubhubhisayo (kokubili ama-brownout kanye nokucima kukagesi) angase ande unyaka wonke. Lesi somiso esithatha isikhathi eside sizolimaza nesivuno somoba wezwe, okuzonyusa intengo ye-ethanol ezinqoleni zezwe ezishintsha uphethiloli (kucatshangwa ukuthi izwe alishintshile ezimotweni zikagesi ngaleso sikhathi).

Ukukhuphuka kwama-autocrats

Isikhathi eside, ukwehla kwamanzi, ukudla, kanye nokuphepha kwamandla kuyo yonke iNingizimu Melika, njengoba nje inani labantu bezwekazi likhula lisuka ezigidini ezingama-430 ngo-2018 laya cishe ezigidini ezingama-500 ngo-2040, kuyindlela yodlame noguquko emphakathini. Ohulumeni abampofu kakhulu bangase bawele esimeni sombuso esihlulekile, kuyilapho abanye bengase basebenzise amabutho abo ukuze bagcine ukuhleleka ngokusebenzisa isimo esihlala njalo somthetho wezempi. Amazwe abhekana nemiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emaphakathi, njengeBrazil ne-Argentina, angase abambelele ekufanekisweni kwentando yeningi, kodwa futhi kuzodingeka ukuthi aqinise umngcele wawo ezivikelweni zezikhukhula zababaleki besimo sezulu noma omakhelwane abasenyakatho abangenanhlanhla kodwa abangamasosha.

Esinye isimo singenzeka kuye ngokuthi amazwe aseNingizimu Melika ahlanganiswe kanjani phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili ezayo ngezikhungo ezifana ne-UNASUR nezinye. Uma amazwe aseNingizimu Melika evuma ukwabelana ngokuhlanganyela kwemithombo yamanzi yezwekazi, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okwabelwana ngakho kunethiwekhi entsha yezwekazi lonke yezokuthutha ezididiyelwe nengqalasizinda yamandla avuselelekayo, amazwe aseNingizimu Melika angase agcine ngempumelelo ukusimama ngesikhathi sokujwayela izimo zezulu zesikhathi esizayo.

Izizathu zethemba

Okokuqala, khumbula ukuthi lokho osanda kukufunda kuwukubikezela kuphela, hhayi iqiniso. Kuyisibikezelo esabhalwa ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi okuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje kanye neminyaka yowezi-2040 ukubhekana nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu (okuningi kwakho kuzovezwa esiphethweni sochungechunge). Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukuze kunciphe futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: