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ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ingqalasizinda 3.0, yakha kabusha amadolobha amakhulu akusasa: Ikusasa Lamadolobha P6

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 08:56

Abantu abangu-200,000 bafudukela emadolobheni nsuku zonke emhlabeni jikelele. Cishe 70 amaphesenti omhlaba azohlala emadolobheni ngo-2050, acishe abe ngamaphesenti angama-90 eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu.

Inkinga?

Amadolobha ethu ayengaklanyelwe ukuthwala ukuthutheleka kwabantu okusheshayo manje abahlala ngaphakathi kwamakhodi endawo yabo. Ingqalasizinda esemqoka ingxenye enkulu yamadolobha ethu athembele kuyo ukweseka inani labantu abakhulayo yakhiwa eminyakeni engama-50 kuya kweyi-100 edlule. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amadolobha ethu akhelwe isimo sezulu esihluke ngokuphelele futhi esingalungiswanga kahle ngenxa yezehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu ezenzeka namuhla, futhi lokho kuzoqhubeka ukwenzeka emashumini eminyaka ezayo njengoba ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kukhula.

Sekukonke, ukuze amadolobha ethu—amakhaya ethu—aqhubeke futhi akhule aze afike engxenyeni yekhulunyaka ezayo, adinga ukwakhiwa kabusha abe namandla futhi ngokuqhubekayo. Phakathi nalesi sahluko sokugcina sochungechunge lwethu lwe-Future of Cities, sizohlola izindlela namathrendi aqhuba ukuzalwa kabusha kwamadolobha ethu.

Ingqalasizinda iyawohloka nxazonke zethu

EDolobheni laseNew York (izibalo zika-2015), kunezikole ezingaphezu kuka-200 ezakhiwa ngaphambi kweminyaka yawo-1920 kanye namamayela angaphezu kuka-1,000 wamapayipi amanzi kanye namabhuloho angu-160 aneminyaka engaphezu kweyi-100 ubudala. Kulawo mabhuloho, ucwaningo lwango-2012 lwathola ukuthi angama-47 womabili ayentula ngokwesakhiwo futhi aphuka kakhulu. Isistimu yokusayinda yesitimela esingaphansi komhlaba yase-NY idlula iminyaka engu-50 yokuphila kwayo ewusizo. Uma konke lokhu kubola kukhona kwelinye lamadolobha acebe kakhulu emhlabeni, yini ongayicabanga ngesimo sokulungisa edolobheni lakho?

Ngokuvamile, ingqalasizinda etholakala emadolobheni amaningi namuhla yakhelwe ikhulu lama-20; manje inselelo ilele ekutheni sizokwenza kanjani ukulungisa noma ukufaka esikhundleni sale ngqalasizinda ekhulwini lama-21. Lokhu ngeke kube yinto elula. Uhlu lokulungiswa okudingekayo ukuze kufinyelelwe lo mgomo lude. Uma sibheka, amaphesenti angama-75 engqalasizinda ezobe isikhona ngo-2050 ayisekho namuhla.

Futhi akukhona nje emazweni athuthukile lapho ingqalasizinda ishoda khona; umuntu angaphikisa ngokuthi isidingo sicindezela nakakhulu amazwe asathuthuka. Imigwaqo, imigwaqo emikhulu, ujantshi wejubane eliphezulu, ezokuxhumana, amapayipi amanzi kanye nezinhlelo zokukhuculula indle, ezinye izifunda e-Afrika nase-Asia ziyayidinga imisebenzi.

Ngokombiko othile umbiko yi-Navigant Research, ngonyaka wezi-2013, isitokwe somhlaba wonke sokwakha safinyelela ku-138.2 billion m2, lapho ama-73% ayesezakhiwo zokuhlala. Lesi sibalo sizokhula sifinyelele ku-171.3 billion m2 eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo, sikhule ngezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka elingaphezudlwana nje kwamaphesenti amabili—okuningi kwalokhu kukhula kuzokwenzeka eShayina lapho kunezelwa khona izigidigidi ezi-2 m2 zezakhiwo zokuhlala nezohwebo minyaka yonke.

Sekukonke, amaphesenti angama-65 okukhula kwezokwakha emhlabeni wonke kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo kuzokwenzeka ezimakethe ezisafufusa, okungenani kutshalwe imali eyizigidi eziyisigidi esingu-$1 ngonyaka ukuze kuvalwe igebe namazwe athuthukile.

Amathuluzi amasha okwakha kabusha nokushintsha ingqalasizinda

Njengezakhiwo, ingqalasizinda yethu yesikhathi esizayo izozuza kakhulu emasu okwakha achazwe okokuqala isahluko sesithathu yalolu chungechunge. Lezi zindlela ezintsha zihlanganisa ukusetshenziswa kwe:

Izingxenye zokwakha ezithuthukisiwe ezivumela abasebenzi bokwakha ukuthi bakhe izakhiwo njengokusebenzisa izingcezu ze-Lego.
Izisebenzi zokwakha zamarobhothi ezengeza (futhi kwezinye izimo zithathe indawo) umsebenzi wezisebenzi zokwakha, ezithuthukisa ukuphepha kwendawo yokusebenza, isivinini sokwakha, ukunemba, kanye nekhwalithi iyonke.
Amaphrinta e-3D esikali sokwakha azosebenzisa inqubo yokukhiqiza okungeziwe ukuze akhe amakhaya anosayizi wempilo namabhilidi ngokuthela usimende ungqimba ngalunye ngendlela elawulwa kahle.
I-aleatory architecture—indlela yokwakha yesikhathi esizayo—evumela abaklami bezakhiwo ukuba bagxile ekwakhiweni nasekubunjweni komkhiqizo wokugcina wokwakha bese benza amarobhothi athululele isakhiwo esebenzisa izinto zokwakha eziklanywe ngokwezifiso.

Ngasohlangothini lwezinto zokwakha, izinto ezintsha zizobandakanya ukuthuthuka kokhonkolo webanga lokwakha namapulasitiki anezakhiwo ezihlukile. Izindlela ezintsha ezinjalo zihlanganisa ukhonkolo omusha wemigwaqo ngendlela emangalisayo, okuvumela amanzi ukuba adlule kuwo ukuze kugwenywe izikhukhula noma izimo ezishelelayo zomgwaqo. Esinye isibonelo ukhonkolo ukuthi can zelaphe emifantwini ebangelwa imvelo noma ukuzamazama komhlaba.

Sizoyixhasa kanjani yonke le ngqalasizinda entsha?

Kuyacaca ukuthi sidinga ukulungisa bese sishintsha ingqalasizinda yethu. Sinenhlanhla ukuthi eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo sizobona ukwethulwa kwezinhlobonhlobo zamathuluzi okwakha amasha nezinto zokwakha. Kodwa ohulumeni bazoyikhokhela kanjani yonke le ngqalasizinda entsha? Futhi uma kubhekwa isimo sezepolitiki esikhona njengamanje, esihlukanisiwe, ohulumeni bazozedlulisa kanjani izabelomali ezinkulu ezidingekayo ukuze kulungiswe ukusilela emuva kwengqalasizinda yethu?

Ngokuvamile, ukuthola imali akuyona inkinga. Ohulumeni bangaphrinta imali ngokuthanda kwabo uma bebona ukuthi izohlomulisa abavoti abanele. Kungalesi sizathu imiklamo yengqalasizinda ephuma kanye nje isiphenduke osopolitiki besanqante abalengela phambi kwabavoti ngaphambi kwemikhankaso eminingi yokhetho. Abasesikhundleni kanye nalabo abaphonse inselelo bavame ukuncintisana ngokuthi ubani ozokhokhela amabhuloho amasha, imigwaqo emikhulu, izikole, nezinhlelo zesitimela esihamba ngaphansi komhlaba, ezikhathini eziningi bakushaya indiva okushiwo ukulungiswa okulula kwengqalasizinda ekhona. (Njengomthetho, ukwakha ingqalasizinda entsha kuheha amavoti amaningi kunokulungisa ingqalasizinda ekhona noma ingqalasizinda engabonakali, njengamapayipi endle namapayipi amanzi.)

Lesi simo esikhona yingakho okuwukuphela kwendlela yokuthuthukisa ngokuphelele ukushoda kwengqalasizinda kazwelonke kuwukukhulisa izinga lokuqwashisa umphakathi ngalolu daba kanye nomfutho womphakathi (intukuthelo nezimfoloko) ukwenza okuthile ngakho. Kodwa kuze kube lokho kwenzeka, le nqubo yokuvuselela izohlala incithakalo kuze kube sekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2020—yilapho kuzovela khona izitayela zangaphandle eziningi, okuqhubekisela phambili isidingo sokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda ngendlela enkulu.

Okokuqala, ohulumeni kuwo wonke umhlaba othuthukile bazoqala ukuzwa amazinga aqophayo okuntuleka kwemisebenzi, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhula kwemishini ezenzakalelayo. Njengoba kuchaziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lomsebenzi uchungechunge, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa obuthuthukile kanye namarobhothi azothatha indawo yomsebenzi wabantu emikhakheni ehlukahlukene nezimboni.

Okwesibili, izimo zesimo sezulu ezikhulayo kanye nezigigaba zizokwenzeka ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, njengoba kuchaziwe kwethi yethu Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu uchungechunge. Futhi njengoba sizodingida kabanzi ngezansi, isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu sizodala ingqalasizinda yethu ekhona ukuthi yehluleke ngesivinini esikhulu kunalokho omasipala abaningi abasilungiselele.

Ukuze kubhekwane nalezi zinselelo ezimbaxambili, ohulumeni abaphelelwe yithemba ekugcineni bazophendukela esu elizanyiwe neliyiqiniso lokwenza umsebenzi—ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda—ngezikhwama ezinkulu zemali. Kuye ngezwe, le mali ingase ivele ngokukhokhiswa intela entsha, amabhondi kahulumeni amasha, izinhlelo ezintsha zezimali (okuchazwe kamuva) futhi ngokwandayo isuka ebudlelwaneni bomphakathi nezizimele. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi izindleko zinjani, ohulumeni bazozikhokha—kokubili ukuze kunqandwe izinxushunxushu zomphakathi ezibangelwa ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi okwandile nokwakhela isizukulwane esilandelayo ingqalasizinda evikela isimo sezulu.

Eqinisweni, ngeminyaka yawo-2030, njengoba iminyaka yokusebenza okuzenzakalelayo ikhula ngesivinini, amaphrojekthi engqalasizinda amakhulu angase amele enye yezinhlelo zokugcina ezinkulu ezixhaswe nguhulumeni ezingadala amakhulu ezinkulungwane zemisebenzi engathengeki ngesikhathi esifushane.

Ukuvikela isimo sezulu amadolobha ethu

Ngawo-2040, izimo zesimo sezulu esibi nezigigaba zizogcizelela ingqalasizinda yedolobha lethu emikhawulweni yayo. Izifunda ezihlushwa ukushisa okwedlulele zingase zibone ukugqwala okukhulu kwemigwaqo yazo, ukwanda kwesiminyaminya sezimoto ngenxa yokuphelelwa ngamandla kwamasondo, ukubhodloka okuyingozi kojantshi besitimela, kanye nezimiso zikagesi ezigcwele izifudumezi-moya eziqhumayo.

Izifunda ezithola imvula emaphakathi zingase zibe nokwanda komsebenzi wesiphepho nesiphepho. Izimvula ezinamandla zizodala amapayipi endle agcwele ngokweqile okuholela ezigidini zezigidi emonakalweni wezikhukhula. Ebusika, lezi zindawo zazikwazi ukubona ukukhithika kweqhwa okungazelelwe nokukhulu okulinganiswa ngamamitha ukuya kumamitha.

Futhi kulezo zikhungo ezinabantu abaningi ezihlala ngasogwini noma ezindaweni eziphansi, njengendawo yase-Chesapeake Bay e-US noma iningi leningizimu ye-Bangladesh noma amadolobha afana ne-Shanghai ne-Bangkok, lezi zindawo zingahlangabezana neziphepho ezinamandla. Futhi uma amazinga olwandle enyuka ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe, kungase kubangele nokufuduka okukhulu kwababaleki besimo sezulu besuka kulezi zindawo ezithintekile phakathi nezwe.

Ngaphandle kwazo zonke lezi zimo zosuku lwembubhiso, kuyafaneleka ukuqaphela ukuthi amadolobha ethu nengqalasizinda ingxenye yawo yimbangela yakho konke lokhu.

Ikusasa ingqalasizinda eluhlaza

Amaphesenti angama-47 egesi engcolisa umoya emhlabeni wonke aphuma ezakhiweni zethu nengqalasizinda; futhi adla amaphesenti angu-49 amandla omhlaba. Okuningi kwalokhu kukhishwa kwegesi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla kuwukungcola okungagwemeka ngokuphelele okukhona ngenxa yokushoda kwezimali zokwakha izakhiwo ezibanzi kanye nokulungiswa kwengqalasizinda. Zikhona futhi ngenxa yokungasebenzi kahle kwesakhiwo kusukela kumazinga okwakha aphelelwe yisikhathi ayevamile ngeminyaka yawo-1920-50s, lapho kwakhiwa iningi lezakhiwo zethu ezikhona kanye nengqalasizinda.

Nokho, lesi simo samanje sinika ithuba. A umbiko yiNational Renewable Energy Laboratory kahulumeni wase-US ibale ukuthi uma isitokwe sezwe sezakhiwo silungiswa kabusha kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe bamuva nje bonga ugesi kanye namakhodi okwakha, kunganciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okwakha ngamaphesenti angama-60. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma ama-solar panel kanye amafasitela elanga zenezelwa kulezi zakhiwo ukuze zikwazi ukukhiqiza amandla azo amaningi noma wonke, ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwamandla kunganyuka kube ngamaphesenti angu-88. Khonamanjalo, ucwaningo olwenziwa yi-United Nations Environment Programme luthole ukuthi izinhlelo ezifanayo, uma zenziwa emhlabeni wonke, zinganciphisa amazinga okukhishwa kwegesi futhi zizuze ukonga amandla ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-30.

Yiqiniso, akukho kulokhu okungabiza. Ukuqalisa ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda edingekayo ukuze kufinyelelwe lezi zinhloso zokunciphisa amandla kuzobiza cishe amatriliyoni ama-4 amadola eminyakeni engama-40 e-US kuphela (amabhiliyoni ayi-100 ngonyaka). Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukonga amandla esikhathi eside kusuka kulokhu kutshalwa kwezimali kuzolingana namatrillion ayi-6.5 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-165 ngonyaka). Uma sicabanga ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kuxhaswa ngemali yokonga ugesi esikhathini esizayo, lokhu kuvuselelwa kwengqalasizinda kumelela imbuyiselo emangalisayo ekutshalweni kwezimali.

Eqinisweni, lolu hlobo lwezimali, olubizwa Izivumelwano Zokonga Ngokuhlanganyela, lapho okokusebenza kufakwa khona bese kukhokhwa umsebenzisi wokugcina ngokonga amandla akhiqizwa imishini eshiwo, yikho okushayela i-solar boom yokuhlala endaweni enkulu yeNyakatho Melika naseYurophu. Izinkampani ezifana ne-Ameresco, i-SunPower Corp., kanye ne-Elon Musk esebenzisana ne-SolarCity basebenzise lezi zivumelwano zezimali ukuze basize izinkulungwane zabanikazi bezindlu ezizimele baphume kugridi futhi behlise izikweletu zabo zikagesi. Ngokunjalo, I-Green Mortgages iyithuluzi lokuxhasa ngezimali elifanayo elivumela amabhange nezinye izinkampani ezibolekisayo ukuthi zinikeze amanani enzalo aphansi kumabhizinisi nabanikazi bezindlu abafaka amaphaneli elanga.

Izigidigidi ukwenza izigidigidi ezengeziwe

Emhlabeni jikelele, ukushoda kwengqalasizinda yethu yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-$15-20 trillion ngo-2030. Kodwa njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, lokhu kushoda kubonisa ithuba elikhulu njengoba ukuvala lesi sikhala kungadala imisebenzi emisha efika ezigidini eziyi-100 futhi ikhiqize ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisithupha ngonyaka emisebenzini yezomnotho emisha.

Kungakho ohulumeni abakhuthele ababuyisela kabusha izakhiwo ezikhona futhi bashintshe ingqalasizinda egugile bengeke nje babeke imakethe yabo yezemisebenzi namadolobha ukuthi athuthuke ekhulwini lama-21 kodwa bazokwenza lokho besebenzisa amandla amancane kakhulu futhi banikele ngokukhishwa kwekhabhoni okumbalwa kakhulu endaweni yethu. Sekukonke, ukutshala izimali kwingqalasizinda kuwukuwina kuwo wonke amaphuzu, kodwa kuzodinga ukusebenzelana nomphakathi okubalulekile kanye nentando yezombusazwe ukuze kwenzeke.