I-5G geopolitics: Lapho ezokuxhumana ziba yisikhali

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• November 8, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Ubuchwepheshe be-5G bubumba kabusha ukuxhumana nomhlaba wonke kanye nezomnotho, buthembisa ukwabelana ngedatha okusheshayo nokusekela izinhlelo zokusebenza ezithuthukisiwe njenge-inthanethi Yezinto (IoT) kanye neqiniso elinwetshiwe (XR). Le ntuthuko esheshayo iholele ekudonsekeni kwezwe, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwe-US ne-China, nokukhathazeka ngokuvikeleka kwezwe kanye nokubusa kobuchwepheshe okunomthelela ekwamukelweni kwe-5G yomhlaba wonke nokwenziwa kwenqubomgomo. Izomnotho ezisafufusa zibhekene nokukhetha okunzima, ukulinganisa izixazululo ezingabizi kakhulu nemifelandawonye yezwe.

5G umongo we-geopolitics

Amanethiwekhi e-5G anganikeza umkhawulokudonsa ophezulu kanye nokubambezeleka okuphansi kubasebenzisi bawo, okuvumela izinhlelo zokusebenza nokuxhumana ukuxhuma nokwabelana ngedatha eduze nesikhathi sangempela. Ukuhlanganiswa kwamanethiwekhi e-5G kungase kunikeze amandla imisebenzi yenoveli ye-Inthanethi Yezinto (IoT), i-edge computing, kanye neqiniso elinwetshiwe. Sekukonke, lawa manethiwekhi e-5G azoba amandla aqhuba i-Fourth Industrial Revolution—umthelela wenguquko emnothweni kazwelonke. 

Ngesikhathi sokuthunyelwa kokuqala kwe-5G ngo-2019, i-US yethula umzamo womhlaba wonke wokuvimbela amafemu aseShayina, ikakhulukazi iHuawei, ekuhlinzekeni ngengqalasizinda. Yize iHuawei inamakhono ezobuchwepheshe nokuzinza, i-US yaphikisa ngokuthi ubuchwepheshe baseShayina bungaba yingozi yezokuphepha kuzwelonke kulabo abathembele kubo. I-US yathi inethiwekhi ye-5G ingasetshenziswa njengethuluzi lobunhloli baseShayina kanye nokucekela phansi ingqalasizinda ebalulekile yaseNtshonalanga. Ngenxa yalokho, abahlinzeki be-5G nabamaShayina babhekwa njengengozi yezokuphepha.

Ngo-2019, i-US yavala i-Huawei emakethe yasekhaya futhi yakhipha isimemezelo emazweni ahlela ukuhlanganisa ubuchwepheshe be-5G kumanethiwekhi abo engqalasizinda. Ngo-2021, i-US yengeze i-ZTE ohlwini lwamafemu aseShayina anqatshelwe. Ngemva konyaka, uHuawei kanye ne-ZTE bazama ukuphinde bangene ngesikhathi sokuphatha i-Biden, kodwa i-US yayizimisele ukuncintisana neChina kulo mkhakha. Amazwe amaningana aseYurophu nawo abeke imingcele imishini yeHuawei, eholwa yiJalimane eyaqala ukuphenya inkampani ngoMashi 2023.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Iphepha elimhlophe le-Eurasia Group lango-2018 ku-5G geopolitics lithi ukuhlukana phakathi kwe-5G yase-China ne-America's ecosystem kudala isimo esiyinkinga kumnotho osafufusa ophoqeleke ukuthi akhethe phakathi kokunye okunezindleko eziphansi kanye nokwesekwa kwawo kwe-US. Lesi simo singase sibe ukukhetha okunzima emazweni ancike ekuxhasweni kwe-China ngezimali nge-Belt and Road Initiative noma amanye amaphrojekthi wengqalasizinda. 

Ngaphezu kwalokho, umzabalazo wethonya langaphandle mayelana nokuvela kwamanethiwekhi e-5G kanye ne-6G ezifundeni ezisathuthuka, ikakhulukazi e-Afrika naseLatin America, uyakhula. Emazweni amaningi asathuthuka, njengePhilippines, iHuawei iyindlela engabizi kakhulu yokukhipha izinsiza ze-5G. Ngokuphawulekayo, amanethiwekhi e-5G enziwe ngokwezifiso kakhulu; ngakho-ke, ukushintsha abahlinzeki phakathi nokuqaliswa noma ukunwetshwa kunzima futhi kuyabiza ngoba isistimu izodinga ukushintshwa. Ngenxa yalokho, kungase kungenzeki uma amazwe efuna ukushintsha abahlinzeki. 

Yize uHuawei engakaze abanjwe oqotsheni ehlola izakhamizi ezizimele ngenethiwekhi yakhe, kungenzeka kusewukukhathazeka okusemthethweni nokukhulu ePhilippines. Abanye babagxeki bakaHuawei bakhomba umthetho waseShayina, ophakamisa ukuthi iBeijing izokwazi ukucela futhi ithole ukufinyelela kudatha yabasebenzisi bangasese nolunye ulwazi olubucayi oluvela kubaphathi benkampani. 

Imithelela ye-5G geopolitics

Imithelela ebanzi ye-5G geopolitics ingase ihlanganise: 

• Amanye amazwe athuthukile ahambisana ne-US ngokusebenzisa izinhlelo ze-“5G Clean Path” ezingahlangani nanoma imaphi amanethiwekhi noma ubuchwepheshe enziwe e-China.
• Ukuncintisana okukhulu phakathi kwe-US ne-China ekuthuthukiseni nasekukhipheni amanethiwekhi esizukulwane esilandelayo se-6G, angasekela kangcono izinkundla zangempela nezingathandwa kwabathelisi esikubona.
• Ingcindezi eyengeziwe evela e-US nase-China, okuhlanganisa unswinyo kanye nokuduba, emazweni asekela ubuchwepheshe be-5G yezimbangi zawo.
• Ukwenyuswa kokutshalwa kwezimali kunethiwekhi yokuphepha kwe-inthanethi okungavimbela ukubhekwa kanye nokukhohlisa kwedatha. 
• Amazwe asathuthuka abanjwe ukulwa kwe-US kanye ne-China, okubangele ukungezwani kwezombusazwe emhlabeni jikelele.
• Ukusungulwa kwezindawo zobuchwepheshe ezizinikele ze-5G ezindaweni ezinamasu, okukhuthaza izindawo zokuqamba ezintsha zobuchwepheshe zasendaweni kanye nokuheha ukutshalwa kwezimali komhlaba wonke.
• Ukugxila okuthuthukisiwe ezinhlelweni zokuthuthukiswa kwamakhono e-5G nezinhlelo zokuqeqesha, okuholela ekwandeni kokwakhiwa kwemisebenzi okukhethekile emazweni athuthukile nasathuthuka.
• Ohulumeni ababuyekeza izinqubomgomo zokutshalwa kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe, okuhloswe ngazo ukuvikela ingqalasizinda yabo ye-5G kanye namaketanga okuhlinzeka kumathonya angaphandle.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Lokhu kungezwani kungathuthuka kanjani njengoba ubuchwepheshe buthuthuka?
• Yimiphi eminye imiphumela eyingozi yale mpi ebandayo yobuchwepheshe?