Post-COVID bikes: A giant step towards democratizing transportation

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• December 2, 2021

Insight summary

The COVID-19 pandemic sparked an unexpected boom in the bicycle industry as people sought safe and healthy alternatives to public transit. This surge in demand brought both opportunities and challenges for manufacturers, and prompted cities worldwide to rethink their infrastructure to accommodate more cyclists. As we move forward, the rise of cycling is set to reshape urban planning, stimulate economic growth, and promote a more sustainable and equitable mode of transportation.

Post-COVID bikes context

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the bicycle industry witnessed a surge in growth that was, quite frankly, unparalleled in its history. This growth was a direct consequence of the lockdown measures that were implemented worldwide to curb the spread of the virus. Essential workers, who were still required to report to their workplaces, found themselves in a predicament. They needed to commute, but the prospect of using public transit, a potential hotbed for the virus, was less than appealing.

Bicycles emerged as a practical and safe alternative. Not only did they provide a means for social distancing, but they also offered a way for people to stay active and fit during a time when gyms and public parks were off-limits. Furthermore, the reduction in road traffic due to lockdowns made bicycling a safer option, which encouraged more people to adopt this mode of transport. The increased adoption of cycling as a hobby also played a role in driving the demand for bicycles.

Research company Research and Markets has projected that the industry will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.1 percent, rising from USD $43.7 billion in 2020 to USD $140.5 billion by 2027. As the world recovers from the pandemic, it is likely that bicycles will continue to become a popular mode of transport. Global governments are also increasing their investments to support cycling infrastructure, particularly in car-centric cities.

Disruptive impact

The surge in demand for bicycles has presented bike manufacturers with a unique set of challenges and opportunities. The increase in sales and prices has been a boon for the industry. However, the pandemic has also led to a slowdown in production due to reduced workforces and the implementation of safety measures such as social distancing. However, the industry remains optimistic. By 2023, bike companies expect production lines to return to normal, which will provide consumers with more options.

However, the growth of the bicycle industry is not just about manufacturing. It also requires a corresponding expansion in infrastructure. Cities like Paris, Milan, and Bogota have been proactive in expanding their bicycle lanes, but progress has been slower in other regions, including Canada and the US. The challenge lies not just in creating more bike-friendly roads in bustling metropolitan areas and gentrified neighborhoods, but also in ensuring that these facilities are available in low-income areas.

The expansion of bicycle lanes in all areas, especially those where residents live far from their workplaces, is crucial for the post-pandemic bike usage trend to truly become a catalyst for equitable transportation. By ensuring that everyone, regardless of their income or location, has access to safe and convenient bicycle lanes, we can democratize transportation. This not only benefits individuals who rely on bicycles for their daily commute, but also companies that can tap into a wider pool of talent.

Implications of post-COVID bikes

Wider implications of post-COVID bikes may include:

• More bicycle lanes that prioritize cyclists instead of cars on major city roads.
• A growing cycling culture that promotes a sustainable and healthy lifestyle.
• Less pollution and vehicle traffic as more people ditch their cars for their bikes.
• A shift in urban planning priorities, with cities investing more in bike-friendly infrastructure, which could reshape the way our urban environments are designed and utilized.
• Economic growth in regions where bicycle manufacturing and related industries are prominent.
• Policies that encourage cycling and discourage the use of carbon-emitting vehicles.
• People choosing to live closer to bike-friendly cities or areas, leading to a potential redistribution of populations and changes in housing markets.
• Technological advancements in the bicycle industry, leading to the creation of new products and services that enhance the cycling experience.
• An increased need for skilled workers in bicycle manufacturing, maintenance, and infrastructure development.

Questions to consider

• If there were more bicycle lanes, would you consider leaving your car behind and riding a bike instead?
• How do you think urban planning might change due to the rising popularity of post-pandemic bikes?