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Momwe Artificial General Intelligence yoyamba idzasinthira anthu: Tsogolo lanzeru zopanga P2

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 13:08

Tamanga mapiramidi. Tinaphunzira kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi. Timamvetsetsa momwe chilengedwe chathu chinapangidwira pambuyo pa Big Bang (makamaka). Ndipo ndithudi, chitsanzo cha cliché, tayika munthu pa mwezi. Komabe, mosasamala kanthu za zopindula zonsezi, ubongo wa munthu umakhalabe wosiyana kwambiri ndi kamvedwe ka sayansi yamakono ndipo, mwachisawawa, uli chinthu chocholoŵana kwambiri m’chilengedwe chodziŵika—kapena kamvedwe kathu kameneka.

Potengera izi, siziyenera kudabwitsatu kuti sitinapange luntha lochita kupanga (AI) poyerekeza ndi anthu. An AI ngati Data (Star Trek), Rachael (Blade Runner), ndi David (Prometheus), kapena AI omwe si a humanoid monga Samantha (Her) ndi TARS (Interstellar), zonsezi ndi zitsanzo za zochitika zazikulu zotsatirazi mu chitukuko cha AI: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI, nthawi zina amatchedwanso HLMI kapena Human Level Machine Intelligence).

Mwanjira ina, vuto lomwe ofufuza a AI akukumana nalo ndilakuti: Tingapange bwanji malingaliro ochita kupanga ofanana ndi athu pomwe sitikumvetsetsa bwino momwe malingaliro athu amagwirira ntchito?

Tifufuza funsoli, pamodzi ndi momwe anthu angakhalire motsutsana ndi ma AGI amtsogolo, ndipo potsiriza, momwe anthu adzasinthire tsiku loyamba la AGI litalengezedwa padziko lonse lapansi.

Kodi Artificial General Intelligence ndi chiyani?

Pangani AI yomwe imatha kumenya osewera omwe ali pamwamba pa Chess, Jeopardy, ndi Go, mosavuta (Blue Blue, Watsonndipo AlphaGO motsatana). Pangani AI yomwe ingakupatseni mayankho ku funso lililonse, kuwonetsa zinthu zomwe mungafune kugula, kapena kuyang'anira ma taxi a rideshare - makampani onse okwera mabiliyoni ambiri amamangidwa mozungulira iwo (Google, Amazon, Uber). Ngakhale AI yomwe imatha kukuthamangitsani kuchokera mbali imodzi ya dziko kupita ku ina ... chabwino, tikugwira ntchito.

Koma funsani AI kuti awerenge buku la ana ndikumvetsetsa zomwe zili, tanthawuzo kapena makhalidwe omwe akuyesera kuphunzitsa, kapena funsani AI kuti afotokoze kusiyana pakati pa chithunzi cha mphaka ndi mbidzi, ndipo pamapeto pake mumayambitsa zambiri. zozungulira zazifupi.

Chilengedwe chakhala zaka mamiliyoni ambiri chikupanga makina apakompyuta (ubongo) omwe amapambana pakukonza, kumvetsetsa, kuphunzira, ndikuchita zinthu zatsopano komanso m'malo atsopano. Fananizani izi ndi sayansi yamakompyuta yazaka makumi awiri zapitazi yomwe imayang'ana kwambiri pakupanga zida zamakompyuta zomwe zidapangidwa kuti zigwirizane ndi ntchito zomwe zidapangidwira.

Mwa kuyankhula kwina, makompyuta a anthu ndi a generalist, pamene makompyuta opangira ndi akatswiri.

Cholinga chopanga AGI ndikupanga AI yomwe imatha kuganiza ndi kuphunzira zambiri ngati munthu, kudzera muzokumana nazo m'malo mopanga mapulogalamu achindunji.

M'dziko lenileni, izi zingatanthauze AGI yamtsogolo kuphunzira kuwerenga, kulemba, ndi kunena nthabwala, kapena kuyenda, kuthamanga ndi kukwera njinga makamaka payokha, mwa njira yake yomwe ili padziko lapansi (pogwiritsa ntchito thupi lililonse kapena Ziwalo zomvera / zida zomwe timazipatsa), komanso kudzera muzochita zake zomwe AI ena ndi anthu ena.

Zomwe zimafunika kuti mupange luntha lochita kupanga

Ngakhale kuli kovuta mwaukadaulo, kupanga AGI kuyenera kukhala kotheka. Ngati zowona, pali chinthu chokhazikika m'malamulo afizikiki - kuwerengera konsekonse - komwe kumanena kuti chilichonse chomwe chinthu chowoneka chingachite, kompyuta yamphamvu yokwanira, yogwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zonse, iyenera kukhala yokhoza kukopera / kutsanzira.

Ndipo komabe, ndizovuta.

Mwamwayi, pali ofufuza anzeru a AI pankhaniyi (osatchulapo ndalama zambiri zamakampani, aboma komanso zankhondo zomwe zimawathandiza), ndipo mpaka pano, apeza zinthu zitatu zofunika kwambiri zomwe akuwona kuti ndizofunikira kuti athetse. AGI m'dziko lathu.

Deta yaikulu. Njira yodziwika bwino yachitukuko cha AI imaphatikizapo njira yotchedwa kuphunzira mozama-mtundu wina wa makina ophunzirira makina omwe amagwira ntchito pochotsa deta yambiri, kusokoneza deta mu netiweki ya neuroni yofananira (yotengera ubongo wa munthu), ndiyeno. gwiritsani ntchito zomwe zapezazo kupanga zidziwitso zake. Kuti mumve zambiri za kuphunzira mozama, werengani izi.

Mwachitsanzo, mu 2017, Google idadyetsa AI ake zikwizikwi za zithunzi za amphaka zomwe njira yake yophunzirira mwakuya idagwiritsa ntchito kuphunzira osati kungozindikira mphaka, koma kusiyanitsa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya amphaka. Posakhalitsa, adalengeza kutulutsidwa kwatsopano kwa Google Lens, pulogalamu yatsopano yofufuzira yomwe imalola ogwiritsa ntchito kujambula chithunzi cha chirichonse ndipo Google sichidzangokuuzani zomwe ziri, koma ikupereka zofunikira zokhudzana ndi zochitika zomwe zikufotokozera-zothandiza poyenda ndipo mukufuna kuphunzira zambiri za malo okopa alendo. Koma apanso, Google Lens sikanatheka popanda mabiliyoni a zithunzi zomwe zalembedwa mu injini yake yosakira zithunzi.

Ndipo komabe, deta yayikuluyi komanso kuphunzira mozama sikunakwanire kubweretsa AGI.

Ma aligorivimu abwino. Pazaka khumi zapitazi, wothandizana ndi Google komanso mtsogoleri mu AI space, DeepMind, adapanga chipwirikiti pophatikiza mphamvu za kuphunzira mozama ndi kulimbikitsa kuphunzira-njira yophunzirira makina yomwe cholinga chake ndi kuphunzitsa AI momwe angachitire zinthu m'malo atsopano kuti akwaniritse. cholinga chokhazikika.

Chifukwa cha njira yosakanizidwa iyi, DeepMind's premiere AI, AlphaGo, sanangodziphunzitsa momwe angasewere AlphaGo potsitsa malamulo ndikuphunzira njira za osewera amunthu, koma atasewera motsutsana ndi nthawi mamiliyoni ambiri ndiye adakwanitsa kumenya osewera abwino kwambiri a AlphaGo. kugwiritsa ntchito mayendedwe ndi njira zomwe sizinawonekerepo pamasewerawa.

Momwemonso, kuyesa kwa pulogalamu ya DeepMind's Atari kumaphatikizapo kupatsa AI kamera kuti iwone mawonekedwe amasewera, kuyipanga ndikutha kuyitanitsa madongosolo amasewera (monga mabatani osangalatsa), ndikuyipatsa cholinga chimodzi kuti iwonjezere kuchuluka kwake. Chotsatira? Patangopita masiku ochepa, idadziphunzitsa momwe imasewerera komanso kuchita bwino masewera angapo apamwamba kwambiri.

Koma ngakhale kuti kupambana koyambirira kumeneku kuli kosangalatsa, pali zovuta zina zofunika kuzithetsa.

Choyamba, ofufuza a AI akugwira ntchito yophunzitsa AI chinyengo chotchedwa 'chunking' chomwe ubongo waumunthu ndi nyama umachita bwino kwambiri. Mwachidule, mukaganiza zopita kukagula zinthu, mumatha kuona m'maganizo mwanu cholinga chanu chomaliza (kugula mapeyala) ndi ndondomeko yovuta ya momwe mungachitire (kuchoka panyumba, kupita ku golosale, kugula. mapeyala, bwerera kunyumba). Chimene simuchita ndikukonzekera mpweya uliwonse, sitepe iliyonse, zomwe zingatheke popita kumeneko. M'malo mwake, muli ndi lingaliro (chunk) m'maganizo mwanu komwe mukufuna kupita ndikusintha ulendo wanu ku chilichonse chomwe chikubwera.

Zomwe zimamveka kwa inu, lusoli ndi limodzi mwamaubwino omwe ubongo wamunthu uli nawobe kuposa AI-ndiko kusinthika kukhala ndi cholinga ndikuchikwaniritsa popanda kudziwa chilichonse pasadakhale komanso ngakhale pali chopinga chilichonse kapena kusintha kwa chilengedwe. akhoza kukumana. Luso limeneli lingathandize ma AGI kuphunzira bwino, popanda kufunikira kwa deta yaikulu yomwe tatchula pamwambapa.

Vuto lina ndikutha osati kungowerenga buku koma kumvetsa tanthauzo lake kapena nkhani kumbuyo kwake. Kwa nthawi yayitali, cholinga pano ndi chakuti AI iwerenge nkhani ya m'nyuzipepala ndikutha kuyankha molondola mafunso angapo okhudza zomwe imawerenga, monga kulemba lipoti la buku. Kuthekera kumeneku kudzasintha AI kuchoka pa chowerengera chomwe chimaphwanya manambala kukhala chinthu chomwe chimasokoneza tanthauzo.

Ponseponse, kupita patsogolo kopitilira muyeso wodziphunzira womwe ungatsanzire ubongo wamunthu udzakhala ndi gawo lalikulu popanga AGI, koma pambali pa ntchitoyi, gulu la AI likufunikanso zida zabwinoko.

Bwino hardware. Pogwiritsa ntchito njira zomwe zafotokozedwa pamwambapa, AGI itheka pokhapokha titakulitsa mphamvu zamakompyuta zomwe zilipo kuti tiyendetse.

Pankhani yake, tikadatenga luso laubongo wamunthu kuganiza ndikuzisintha kukhala mawu owerengera, ndiye kuti kuyerekeza kwamphamvu kwamalingaliro amunthu ndikofanana ndi 1,000 petaflops ('Flop' imayimira ntchito zoyandama pamlingo uliwonse. chachiwiri ndikuyesa liwiro la kuwerengera).

Poyerekeza, pofika kumapeto kwa 2018, makompyuta apamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, aku Japan AI Bridging Cloud adzang'ung'uza 130 petaflops, kutali kwambiri ndi exaflop imodzi.

Monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu akuluakulu mutu wathu Tsogolo Lamakompyuta mndandanda, onse aku US ndi China akugwira ntchito kuti apange makina awo apamwamba kwambiri pofika chaka cha 2022, koma ngakhale atachita bwino, izi sizingakhale zokwanira.

Makompyuta apamwambawa amagwira ntchito pamagetsi khumi ndi awiri amphamvu, amatenga malo okwana mazana angapo, ndipo amawononga mamiliyoni mazana angapo kuti amange. Ubongo wamunthu umagwiritsa ntchito ma watts 20 okha amphamvu, kulowa mkati mwa chigaza pafupifupi 50 cm mozungulira, ndipo pali mabiliyoni asanu ndi awiri a ife (2018). Mwanjira ina, ngati tikufuna kupanga ma AGI kukhala ofala ngati anthu, tifunika kuphunzira momwe tingawapangire mwachuma.

Kuti izi zitheke, ofufuza a AI ayamba kuganizira zopatsa mphamvu ma AI amtsogolo ndi makompyuta a quantum. Kufotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane mu makompyuta a quantum mutu m'nkhani yathu ya Tsogolo la Makompyuta, makompyutawa amagwira ntchito mosiyana kwambiri ndi makompyuta omwe takhala tikumanga kwa zaka makumi angapo zapitazi. Ikakonzedwa bwino pofika zaka za m'ma 2030, kompyuta imodzi yokhayo idzatulutsa makompyuta onse apamwamba omwe akugwira ntchito mu 2018, padziko lonse lapansi, kuphatikiza. Adzakhalanso ang'onoang'ono kwambiri ndikugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa kwambiri kuposa makompyuta apamwamba.

Kodi luntha lochita kupanga lingakhale bwanji loposa munthu?

Tiyeni tiyerekeze kuti vuto lililonse lomwe latchulidwa pamwambapa limaganiziridwa, kuti ofufuza a AI amapeza bwino popanga AGI yoyamba. Kodi malingaliro a AGI adzakhala bwanji osiyana ndi athu?

Kuti tiyankhe funso ili, tiyenera kugawa malingaliro a AGI m'magulu atatu, omwe amakhala mkati mwa thupi la robot (Deta kuchokera ku Star ulendo), omwe ali ndi mawonekedwe akuthupi koma olumikizidwa opanda zingwe ku intaneti/mtambo (Agent Smith kuchokera The masanjidwewo) ndi omwe alibe mawonekedwe omwe amakhala pakompyuta kapena pa intaneti (Samantha kuchokera masewera).

Kuyamba, ma AGI mkati mwa thupi la robotic lodzipatula pa intaneti adzapikisana ndi malingaliro aumunthu, koma ndi zabwino zina:

Memory: Kutengera kapangidwe ka mawonekedwe a robotic a AGI, kukumbukira kwawo kwakanthawi kochepa komanso kukumbukira chidziwitso chofunikira kudzakhala kopambana anthu. Koma kumapeto kwa tsikulo, pali malire a kuchuluka kwa malo osungiramo zinthu zomwe mungathe kunyamula mu robot, poganiza kuti timawapanga kuti aziwoneka ngati anthu. Pazifukwa izi, kukumbukira kwanthawi yayitali kwa ma AGI kudzachita mofanana ndi anthu, kuyiwala zambiri ndi kukumbukira zomwe zimaonedwa kuti sizofunikira pakugwira ntchito kwamtsogolo (kuti amasule 'disk space').
Liwiro: Kuchita kwa ma neuron mkati mwaubongo wamunthu kumafika pafupifupi 200 hertz, pomwe ma microprocessors amakono amathamanga pamlingo wa gigahertz, kotero kuti nthawi mamiliyoni ambiri kuposa ma neuron. Izi zikutanthauza kuti poyerekeza ndi anthu, ma AGI amtsogolo adzakonza zambiri ndikupanga zisankho mwachangu kuposa anthu. Dziwani, izi sizikutanthauza kuti AGI iyi ipanga zisankho zanzeru kapena zolondola kuposa anthu, kungoti athe kuzindikira mwachangu.
Kachitidwe kake: Mwachidule, ubongo wa munthu umatopa ngati ugwira ntchito kwa nthawi yaitali popanda kupuma kapena kugona, ndipo ukatero, kukumbukira kwake ndi luso lake la kuphunzira ndi kulingalira zimasokonezeka. Pakadali pano, kwa ma AGI, poganiza kuti amachajitsidwa (magetsi) pafupipafupi, sadzakhala ndi kufooka kumeneko.
Kupititsa patsogolo: Kwa munthu, kuphunzira chizolowezi chatsopano kungatenge milungu ingapo, kuphunzira luso latsopano kungatenge miyezi yambiri, ndipo kuphunzira ntchito yatsopano kungatenge zaka. Kwa AGI, adzakhala ndi luso lophunzira zonse (monga anthu) komanso kukweza deta mwachindunji, mofanana ndi momwe mumasinthira nthawi zonse OS ya kompyuta yanu. Zosinthazi zitha kugwira ntchito pakukweza chidziwitso (maluso atsopano) kapena kukweza magwiridwe antchito ku mawonekedwe akuthupi a AGI.

Kenako, tiyeni tiwone ma AGI omwe ali ndi mawonekedwe akuthupi, komanso olumikizidwa opanda zingwe ku intaneti/mtambo. Kusiyana komwe tikuwona ndi mulingo uwu tikayerekeza ndi ma AGI osalumikizana ndi awa:

Memory: Ma AGI awa adzakhala ndi zabwino zonse kwakanthawi kochepa zomwe kalasi ya AGI yapitayo ili nayo, kupatula kuti adzapindulanso ndi kukumbukira kwanthawi yayitali popeza atha kuyika zokumbukirazo pamtambo kuti azitha kuzifikira pakafunika. Zachidziwikire, kukumbukira uku sikungapezeke m'malo olumikizidwa pang'ono, koma izi sizikhala zodetsa nkhawa kwambiri m'ma 2020 ndi 2030 pomwe ambiri padziko lapansi abwera pa intaneti. Werengani zambiri mu mutu woyamba zathu Tsogolo la intaneti zino.
Liwiro: Kutengera mtundu wa chopinga chomwe AGI iyi ikukumana nacho, amatha kupeza mphamvu yayikulu yapakompyuta yamtambo kuti iwathandize kuthetsa.
Kachitidwe: Palibe kusiyana poyerekeza ndi ma AGI osalumikizidwa.
Kukwezeka: Kusiyana kokha komwe kulipo pakati pa AGI iyi pokhudzana ndi kukweza ndikuti amatha kupeza zokweza munthawi yeniyeni, popanda zingwe, m'malo mongoyendera ndikulumikiza malo osungira.
Zogwirizana: Anthu adakhala zamoyo zotsogola padziko lapansi osati chifukwa choti tinali nyama yayikulu kapena yamphamvu kwambiri, koma chifukwa tidaphunzira momwe tingalankhulire ndi kugwirira ntchito limodzi m'njira zosiyanasiyana kuti tikwaniritse zolinga zonse, kuyambira kusaka Woolly Mammoth mpaka kumanga International Space Station. Gulu la ma AGI lingatenge mgwirizanowu kupita pamlingo wina. Poganizira zabwino zonse zachidziwitso zomwe zatchulidwa pamwambapa ndikuphatikiza izi ndi kuthekera kolumikizana popanda zingwe, pamaso panu komanso kudutsa mitunda yayitali, gulu lamtsogolo la AGI/mng'oma limatha kuchita bwino kwambiri kuposa gulu la anthu.

Pomaliza, mtundu womaliza wa AGI ndi mtundu wopanda mawonekedwe akuthupi, womwe umagwira ntchito mkati mwa kompyuta, ndipo uli ndi mwayi wopeza mphamvu zonse zamakompyuta ndi zida zapaintaneti zomwe opanga ake amapereka. M'mawonetsero a sayansi ndi m'mabuku, ma AGI awa nthawi zambiri amatenga mawonekedwe a akatswiri othandizira/abwenzi kapena makina opangira ma spunky a mlengalenga. Koma poyerekeza ndi magulu ena awiri a AGI, AI iyi idzasiyana motere;

Liwiro: Zopanda malire (kapena, mpaka malire a hardware yomwe imatha kufika).
Memory: Zopanda malire
Kagwiridwe: Kuchulukira kopanga zisankho chifukwa cha mwayi wopezeka m'malo opangira ma supercomputing.
Kukwezeka: Mtheradi, mu nthawi yeniyeni, komanso ndi kusankha kopanda malire kwa kukweza kwachidziwitso. Zachidziwikire, popeza gulu la AGI ili liribe mawonekedwe a loboti, sizidzafunikanso kukweza kwakuthupi pokhapokha ngati zosinthazo zili pamakompyuta apamwamba omwe amagwira ntchito.
Zogwirizana: Mofanana ndi gulu la AGI lapitalo, AGI yopanda thupi iyi idzagwirizana bwino ndi anzake a AGI. Komabe, kupatsidwa mwayi wopeza mphamvu zamakompyuta zopanda malire komanso mwayi wopeza zinthu zapaintaneti, ma AGI awa nthawi zambiri amatenga maudindo a utsogoleri mu gulu lonse la AGI.

Ndi liti pamene anthu adzapanga luntha loyamba lochita kupanga?

Palibe tsiku lokhazikitsidwa pomwe gulu lofufuza za AI likukhulupirira kuti apanga AGI yovomerezeka. Komabe, a Kafukufuku wa 2013 mwa ofufuza 550 apamwamba kwambiri a AI padziko lonse lapansi, otsogozedwa ndi akatswiri ofufuza a AI Nick Bostrom ndi Vincent C. Müller, adawerengera malingaliro osiyanasiyana mpaka zaka zitatu zomwe zingatheke:

Chaka chabwino chapakati (10% mwayi): 2022
Chaka chowona chapakati (50% chotheka): 2040
Chaka chapakati chopanda chiyembekezo (90% chotheka): 2075

Kuti maulosi amenewa ali olondola bwanji zilibe kanthu. Chofunikira ndichakuti ambiri mwa ofufuza a AI amakhulupirira kuti tidzapanga AGI m'moyo wathu komanso koyambirira kwa zaka za zana lino.

Momwe kupanga luntha lochita kupanga lidzasinthira umunthu

Timasanthula mwatsatanetsatane za AI yatsopanoyi m'mutu womaliza wa mndandanda uno. Izi zati, m'mutu uno, tinena kuti kupangidwa kwa AGI kudzakhala kofanana kwambiri ndi momwe anthu angachitire ngati anthu apeza moyo ku Mars.

Gulu lina silingamvetse tanthauzo lake ndipo limapitiriza kuganiza kuti asayansi akupanga zambiri pakupanga kompyuta ina yamphamvu kwambiri.

Msasa wina, womwe mwina uli ndi a Luddites ndi anthu okonda zachipembedzo, adzawopa AGI iyi, poganiza kuti ndi yonyansa kuti iyesera kupha anthu ngati mawonekedwe a SkyNet. Msasawu udzalimbikitsa anthu kuchotsa/kuwononga ma AGI mumitundu yawo yonse.

Pa mbali ya flip, kampu yachitatu idzawona chilengedwe ichi ngati chochitika chauzimu chamakono. Munjira zonse zofunika, AGI iyi idzakhala mtundu watsopano wamoyo, womwe umaganiza mosiyana ndi momwe timaganizira komanso zomwe zolinga zake ndizosiyana ndi zathu. Kulengedwa kwa AGI kudzalengezedwa, anthu sadzakhalanso akugawana Dziko Lapansi ndi nyama zokha, komanso pamodzi ndi gulu latsopano la zolengedwa zopanga zomwe nzeru zawo zimakhala zofanana kapena zapamwamba kuposa zathu.

Msasa wachinayi udzaphatikizapo zokonda zamalonda zomwe zidzafufuze momwe angagwiritsire ntchito ma AGI kuti athetse zosowa zosiyanasiyana zamalonda, monga kudzaza mipata mumsika wogwira ntchito ndi kufulumizitsa chitukuko cha katundu ndi ntchito zatsopano.

Kenako, tili ndi nthumwi zochokera m'maboma onse omwe adzipunthwa ndikuyesera kumvetsetsa momwe angayendetsere ma AGI. Uwu ndi mulingo womwe mikangano yonse yokhudzana ndi chikhalidwe ndi nzeru idzafika pachimake, makamaka ngati atenge ma AGI ngati katundu kapena ngati anthu.

Ndipo potsiriza, msasa wotsiriza udzakhala asilikali ndi mabungwe a chitetezo cha dziko. Zowonadi, pali mwayi wabwino kuti kulengeza kwapoyera kwa AGI yoyamba kuchedwetsedwe ndi miyezi mpaka zaka chifukwa cha msasawu wokha. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa kupangidwa kwa AGI, posachedwa kudzetsa kupangidwa kwa artificial superintelligence (ASI), yomwe idzayimira chiwopsezo chachikulu chazandale komanso mwayi woposa kupangidwa kwa bomba la nyukiliya.

Pachifukwa ichi, mitu yotsatirayi idzayang'ana kwambiri pamutu wa ASIs komanso ngati umunthu udzakhalapo pambuyo pa kupangidwa kwake.

(Njira yodabwitsa kwambiri yomaliza mutu? Mukubetcha.)