I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ikusasa lebhizinisi elikhulu ngemuva kwezimoto ezizishayelayo: Ikusasa Lezokuthutha P2

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

Msombuluko, 09/14/2020 - 08:47

Unyaka ngu-2021. Ushayela wehla ngomgwaqo omkhulu ohambeni lwakho lwansuku zonke. Usondela emotweni eshayela ngenkani ngesivinini esiphezulu. Unquma ukuphasisa lo mshayeli ogcina umthetho ngokweqile, ngaphandle uma wenza kanjalo, uthola ukuthi akekho esihlalweni esingaphambili.

Njengoba sifundile ku ingxenye yokuqala ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lezokuthutha, izimoto ezizishayelayo zizotholakala esidlangalaleni eminyakeni embalwa nje. Kodwa ngenxa yezingxenye zazo, cishe zizobiza kakhulu kumthengi ojwayelekile. Ingabe lokhu kuphawula izimoto ezizishayelayo njengento entsha efile emanzini? Ubani ozothenga lezi zinto?

Ukukhuphuka koguquko lokwabelana ngezimoto

Izindatshana eziningi ezimayelana nezimoto ezizimele (ama-AV) ziyehluleka ukusho ukuthi imakethe yokuqala eqondiwe yalezi zimoto ngeke kube umthengi ojwayelekile—kuzoba ibhizinisi elikhulu. Ikakhulukazi, izinsizakalo zokwabelana ngamatekisi nezemoto. Kungani? Ake sibheke ithuba lezimoto ezizishayelayo ezimele enye yezinsizakalo ezinkulu zamatekisi/ukugibela emhlabeni: i-Uber.

Ngokusho kwe-Uber (futhi cishe yonke isevisi yamatekisi laphaya), enye yezindleko ezinkulu (amaphesenti angama-75) ehambisana nokusebenzisa umsebenzi wabo iholo lomshayeli. Susa umshayeli futhi izindleko zokuthatha i-Uber zizoba ngaphansi kokuba nemoto cishe kuzo zonke izimo. Ukube ama-AV nawo bekungawogesi (as Izibikezelo ze-Quantumrun zibikezela), izindleko ezincishisiwe zikaphethiloli zingadonsela intengo yokugibela i-Uber iye phansi ibe amapeni ngekhilomitha.

Njengoba amanani entengo ephansi, kuvela umjikelezo omuhle lapho abantu beqala ukusebenzisa i-Uber ngaphezu kwezimoto zabo ukuze bonge imali (ekugcineni badayise izimoto zabo ngemva kwezinyanga ezimbalwa). Abantu abaningi abasebenzisa i-Uber AVs kusho isidingo esikhulu sesevisi; isidingo esikhulu sikhuthaza ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu okuvela kwa-Uber ukuze kukhishwe iqoqo elikhulu lama-AV emgwaqeni. Le nqubo izoqhubeka iminyaka eminingi size sifinyelele lapho iningi lezimoto ezisemadolobheni zizilawula ngokugcwele futhi ziphethwe yi-Uber nezinye izimbangi.

Lowo umklomelo omkhulu: ubunikazi obuningi bezinto zokuhamba zomuntu siqu kuwo wonke amadolobha namadolobhana emhlabeni wonke, noma kuphi lapho kuvunyelwe khona izinsizakalo zamatekisi nezokwabelana ngezimoto.

Ingabe lokhu kubi? Ingabe lokhu akulungile? Ingabe kufanele ngabe siphakamisa izimfoloko zethu ngokumelene nalolu hlelo oluyinhloko lokubusa umhlaba? Hhayi impela. Ake sibheke ngokujulile isimo samanje sobunikazi bezimoto ukuze siqonde ukuthi kungani lolu shintsho lwezokuthutha lungeyona into embi kangako.

Isiphetho esijabulisayo sobunikazi bemoto

Uma ubheka ubunikazi bemoto ngendlela eqondile, kubonakala sengathi idili. Ngokwesibonelo, ngokusho ucwaningo lukaMorgan Stanley, imoto evamile ishayelwa amaphesenti amane kuphela esikhathi. Ungabeka impikiswano yokuthi izinto eziningi esizithengayo azivamile ukusetshenziswa usuku lonke—ngikumema ukuthi ngelinye ilanga ubone ungqimba lothuli luqoqana phezu kweqoqo lami lama-dumbbell—kodwa ngokungafani nezinto eziningi esizithengayo, azikwenzi lokho. t imele ingxenye yesibili enkulu yemali engenayo yonyaka, ngemva nje kwezinkokhelo zethu zerenti noma zindlu.

Imoto yakho iyancipha inani uma uyithenga, futhi ngaphandle kokuthi uthenge imoto yohlobo oluphambili, inani layo lizoqhubeka nokwehla unyaka nonyaka. Ngokuphambene, izindleko zakho zokunakekela zizokhuphuka unyaka nonyaka. Futhi masingaqali ngomshwalense wezimoto noma izindleko zokupaka (kanye nesikhathi esichithwe sifuna indawo yokupaka).

Sekukonke, izindleko zobunikazi ezimaphakathi zemoto yabagibeli base-US cishe $ 9,000 njalo ngonyaka. Kungadingeka ukonga malini ukuze ulahle imoto yakho? Ngokusho kukaProffered CEO Zack Kanter, “Sekonga kakhulu ukusebenzisa isevisi yokwabelana ngokugibela uma uhlala edolobheni futhi ushayela ngaphansi kwamamayela angu-10,000 ngonyaka.” Ngamatekisi azishayelayo kanye nezinsizakalo zokwabelana ngabagibeli, ungase ube nokufinyelela okugcwele emotweni noma nini lapho ukudinga, ngaphandle kokukhathazeka ngomshwalense noma ukupaka.

Ezingeni elikhulu, lapho abantu abaningi besebenzisa lezi zinsizakalo zokugibela ezizenzakalelayo namatekisi, izimoto ezimbalwa ezizoba khona zizoshayela emigwaqweni yethu emikhulu noma amabhulokhi azungezayo afuna ukupaka ngokungapheli—ukuncipha kwezimoto kusho ukuthi ithrafikhi encane, izikhathi zokuhamba ngokushesha, kanye nokungcola okuncane kwendawo yethu. (ikakhulukazi uma lawa ma-AV eba wonke ngogesi). Okungcono nakakhulu, ama-AV amaningi emgwaqeni asho izingozi ezimbalwa zomgwaqo jikelele, okonga imali yomphakathi kanye nezimpilo. Futhi uma kuziwa kubantu asebekhulile noma abantu abakhubazekile, lezi zimoto zithuthukisa ukuzimela kwazo kanye nokuhamba jikelele. Lezi zihloko nokunye kuzoxoxwa ngakho kulesi sihloko ingxenye yokugcina ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lezokuthutha.

Ubani oyobusa esikhundleni esiphakeme ezimpini ezizayo zabagibeli?

Uma kubhekwa amandla aluhlaza ezimoto ezizishayelayo kanye nethuba elikhulu lemali engenayo ezimelela amatekisi nezinsizakalo zokwabelana ngabagibeli (bona ngenhla), akunzima ukucabanga ikusasa elihlanganisa idili elihle le-Game-of-Thrones elingenabungane. -isitayela sokuncintisana phakathi kwalezo zinkampani ezibanga ukukhonya kulo mkhakha osafufusa.

Futhi obani lezi zinkampani, lezi zinja eziphezulu ezifuna ukuba nesipiliyoni sakho sokushayela esizayo? Ake sehlise uhlu:

Umbangi wokuqala nosobala ophambili akekho omunye ngaphandle kwe-Uber. Inomkhawulo wemakethe wamabhiliyoni angu-18, isipiliyoni seminyaka yethula izinsiza zamatekisi kanye nokugibela abagibeli ezimakethe ezintsha, inama-algorithms ayinkimbinkimbi okuphatha izimoto zayo, igama elisunguliwe, kanye nenhloso eshiwo yokushintsha abashayeli bayo ngezimoto ezizishayelayo. Kodwa nakuba i-Uber ingase ibe nesiqalo ebhizinisini lesikhathi esizayo lokwabelana ngomshayeli, ihlushwa ubungozi obubili: Incike ku-Google ngamamephu ayo futhi izoncika kumkhiqizi wezimoto ekuthengeni kwayo esikhathini esizayo izimoto ezizisebenzelayo.

Uma sikhuluma nge-Google, kungase kube imbangi eqinile ye-Uber. Ingumholi ekuthuthukisweni kwezimoto ezizishayelayo, iphethe insizakalo ehamba phambili yokudweba imephu emhlabeni, futhi inemakethe enyakatho yezigidigidi ezingama-350 zamaRandi, bekungeke kube nzima ku-Google ukuthenga uxhaxha lwamatekisi angashayeli bese ihlukumeza ukungena ibhizinisi—eqinisweni, linesizathu esihle kakhulu sokwenza kanjalo: Izikhangiso.

I-Google ilawula ibhizinisi lezikhangiso eziku-inthanethi elinenzuzo kakhulu emhlabeni—elincike kakhulu ekunikezeni izikhangiso zasendaweni eduze kwemiphumela yenjini yakho yosesho. Isimo esihlakaniphile esivezwe umlobi Ben Eddy ibona ikusasa lapho i-Google ithenga khona izimoto zikagesi ezizishayelayo ezikushayela edolobheni kuyilapho ikunikeza izikhangiso zasendaweni ngesibonisi semoto. Uma ukhetha ukubuka lezi zikhangiso, ukugibela kwakho kungase kwehliswe kakhulu, uma kungenjalo mahhala. Isimo esinjalo singakhulisa kakhulu ikhono le-Google lokuphakela izikhangiso kuzithameli ezithunjiwe, kuyilapho sinqoba nezinsizakalo eziqhudelanayo ezifana ne-Uber, ochwepheshe bayo bokunikeza izikhangiso ngeke bafane nobe-Google.

Lezi yizindaba ezinhle ku-Google, kodwa ukwakha imikhiqizo yemvelo akukaze kube yisudi yakho eqinile—ingasaphathwa eyakha izimoto. I-Google cishe izoncika kubathengisi bangaphandle uma kuziwa ekuthengeni izimoto zayo futhi ibahlomise ngamagiya adingekayo ukuze zikwazi ukuzimela.

Ngaleso sikhathi, uTesla usengene kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwe-AV. Ngenkathi sekwephuzile emdlalweni ngemuva kwe-Google, u-Tesla usezuze isisekelo esikhulu ngokwenza kusebenze izici ezizimele ezilinganiselwe eqoqweni lakhe lezimoto zamanje. Futhi njengoba abanikazi be-Tesla basebenzisa lezi zici ezizimele ngaphansi kwezimo zomhlaba wangempela, u-Tesla uyakwazi ukulanda le datha ukuze azuze izigidi zamamayela okushayela ukuhlolwa kwe-AV ekuthuthukisweni kwesofthiwe ye-AV. Ingxube phakathi kweSilicon Valley nomenzi wezimoto ovamile, uTesla unethuba elinamandla lokuwina ucezu olukhulu lwemakethe ye-AVE kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.

Bese kuba khona u-Apple. Ngokungafani ne-Google, ikhono eliwumgogodla le-Apple lilele ekwakheni imikhiqizo ebonakalayo engagcini nje ngokusebenziseka kodwa futhi eklanywe kahle. Amakhasimende ayo, ngobubanzi, nawo avame ukuceba, okuvumela i-Apple ukuthi ikhokhise iprimiyamu kunoma yimuphi umkhiqizo ewukhiphayo. Yingakho i-Apple manje ihlezi esifubeni sempi esingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-590 engasisebenzisa ukungena emdlalweni wokwabelana ngokugibela kalula njenge-Google.

Kusukela ngo-2015, kwasabalala amahlebezi okuthi i-Apple izophuma ne-AV yayo ukuze iqhudelane noTesla ngaphansi kwe-Project Titan moniker, kodwa izithiyo zakamuva bonisa ukuthi leli phupho lingase lingalokothi libe ngokoqobo. Yize ingase ibambisane nabanye abakhiqizi bezimoto ngokuzayo, i-Apple kungenzeka ingasakwazi ukuba semjahweni wezimoto njengoba abahlaziyi bakuqala bebenethemba.

Futhi-ke sinabakhiqizi bezimoto abanjengoGM noToyota. Uma sibheka, uma ukugibela amahhashi kuqala futhi kunciphisa isidingo sokuthi ingxenye enkulu yabantu ibe nezimoto, kungasho ukuphela kwebhizinisi labo. Futhi nakuba kungaba nengqondo ukuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto bazame ukunxenxa ngokumelene nethrendi ye-AV, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwakamuva okwenziwe ngabakhi be-auto kuziqalo zobuchwepheshe kubonisa okuphambene nalokho.

Ekugcineni, abakhiqizi bezimoto abasinda enkathini ye-AV yibo abehlisela phansi ngempumelelo futhi bazisungulele kabusha ngokwethula izinsiza ezihlukene zokwabelana ngamahhashi abo. Futhi ngenkathi sekwephuzile ukufika emncintiswaneni, ulwazi lwabo kanye nekhono labo lokukhiqiza izimoto ngezinga eliphezulu kuzobavumela ukuthi bakhiphe i-Silicon Valley ngokwakha izimoto ezizishayelayo ngokushesha kunanoma iyiphi enye insizakalo yokugibela—okungabavumela ukuthi babambe izimakethe ezinkulu (amadolobha) ngaphambilini. I-Google noma i-Uber ingazifaka.

Konke okushiwo, ngenkathi bonke laba baqhudelana benza amacala aphoqayo ukuthi kungani bengagcina bephumelele i-Game of Thrones ezishayelayo, isimo okungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi eyodwa noma ngaphezulu yalezi zinkampani zizosebenzisana ukuze ziphumelele kulo msebenzi omkhulu.

Khumbula, abantu bajwayele ukuzishayela. Abantu bayakujabulela ukushayela. Abantu bayasola ngamarobhothi aphethe ukuphepha kwawo. Futhi kunezimoto ezingezona eze-AV ezingaphezu kwesigidigidi emgwaqeni emhlabeni jikelele. Ukushintsha imikhuba yomphakathi kanye nokuthatha imakethe enkulu kangaka kungase kube inselele enkulu kakhulu kunoma iyiphi inkampani eyodwa ukuzilawula iyodwa.

Uguquko alugcini nje ezimotweni ezizishayelayo

Uma ufunda kuze kube manje, uzoxolelwa ngokucabanga ukuthi lolu guquko lwezokuthutha lukhawulelwe kuma-AV asiza abantu ukuthi basuke endaweni A baye ku-B ngeshibhile nangempumelelo kakhudlwana. Kodwa empeleni, lokho kuyingxenye yendaba kuphela. Ukushayela ama-robo-chauffeurs kuhle futhi kuhle (ikakhulukazi ngemva kobusuku obunzima bokuphuza), kodwa kuthiwani ngazo zonke ezinye izindlela esihamba ngazo? Kuthiwani ngekusasa lezokuthutha zomphakathi? Kuthiwani ngezitimela? Izikebhe? Futhi ngisho izindiza? Konke lokho nokunye kuzodingidwa engxenyeni yesithathu yochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lezokuthutha.