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Ikusasa lokuguga: Ikusasa Lomphakathi Wabantu P5

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 04:20

Iminyaka engamashumi amathathu ezayo kuzoba ngokokuqala ngqá emlandweni lapho abantu abadala benza ingxenye enkulu yabantu. Lena yindaba yempumelelo yangempela, ukunqoba kwesintu emzamweni wethu ohlangene wokuphila izimpilo ezinde futhi ezikhuthele kuze kube yiminyaka yethu yesiliva. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, le tsunami yabantu abadala nayo iletha izinselele ezinkulu kakhulu emphakathini wethu nasemnothweni wethu.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi sihlole imininingwane ethile, ake sichaze lezo zizukulwane ezizongena ebudaleni.

Civics: Isizukulwane esithule

Izalwe ngaphambi kuka-1945, iCivics manje isiyisizukulwane esincane kunazo zonke eMelika nasemhlabeni, esibalelwa ezigidini eziyi-12.5 kanye nezigidi eziyi-124 ngokulandelana (2016). Isizukulwane sabo yibo abalwa Ezimpini Zethu Zomhlaba, baphila ngesikhathi Sokuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho, futhi basungula uthango olumhlophe lwepikiniki, indawo engaphansi kwedolobha, indlela yokuphila yomndeni wenuzi. Bajabulela nenkathi yokuqashwa impilo yonke, izindlu ezishibhile, kanye (namuhla) nohlelo lwempesheni olukhokhelwa ngokugcwele.

Ama-Baby Boomers: Abasebenzisa imali enkulu impilo yonke

Izalwe phakathi kuka-1946 no-1964, ama-Boomers ake ayisizukulwane esikhulu kunazo zonke eMelika nasemhlabeni, namuhla alinganiselwa ezigidini ezingu-76.4 kanye nezigidigidi ezingu-1.6 ngokulandelana. Izingane zamaCivics, abakwaBoomers bakhulele emakhaya endabuko enabazali ababili futhi baphumelela emisebenzini evikelekile. Baphinde bakhula ngesikhathi soshintsho olukhulu emphakathini, kusukela ekubandlululweni nasekukhululekeni kwabesifazane kuya emithonyeni ephikisana namasiko afana ne-rock-n-roll nezidakamizwa zokungcebeleka. AbakwaBoomers bakhiqize isamba esikhulu sengcebo yomuntu siqu, ingcebo abayichitha ngokuchichimayo uma iqhathaniswa nezizukulwane ezingaphambi kwabo nangemva kwazo.

Umhlaba uba mpunga

Njengoba lezi zingeniso seziphumile endleleni, manje ake sibhekane namaqiniso: Ngawo-2020, ama-Civics amancane azongena eminyakeni yawo-90 kanti ama-Boomers amancane azongena eminyakeni yawo-70. Ngokuhlangene, lokhu kumelela ingxenye enkulu yabantu bomhlaba, cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezine nabanciphayo, abazongena eminyakeni yabo yobudala.

Ukuze sikuqonde lokhu, singabheka eJapane. Kusukela ngo-2016, oyedwa kwabane waseJapane useneminyaka engama-65 noma ngaphezulu. Lokho cishe iminyaka engu-1.6 yaseJapane yokusebenza isakhamuzi ngasinye. Ngo-2050, lelo nani lizokwehla libe yi-Japanese yeminyaka yokusebenza eyodwa isakhamuzi ngasinye. Ezizweni zanamuhla inani lazo labantu lincike ohlelweni lokuvikela umphakathi, lesi silinganiso sokuncika siphansi ngokuyingozi. Futhi lokho iJapane ebhekene nakho namuhla, zonke izizwe (ngaphandle kwe-Afrika nezingxenye ze-Asia) zizobhekana namashumi ambalwa eminyaka ambalwa.

Ibhomu yesikhathi somnotho yezibalo zabantu

Njengoba kuphawulwe ngenhla, ukukhathazeka ohulumeni abaningi ababa nakho uma kukhulunywa ngesibalo sabantu abampunga ukuthi bazoqhubeka kanjani nokuxhasa uhlelo lwePonzi olubizwa ngeSocial Security. Inani labantu abampunga liba nomthelela omubi ezinhlelweni zempesheni yabadala lapho bethola ukuthutheleka kwabamukeli abasha (okwenzeka namuhla) nalapho labo bamukeli bekhipha izimangalo ohlelweni isikhathi eside (indaba eqhubekayo encike ekuthuthukisweni kwezokwelapha ngaphakathi kohlelo lwethu lwezempilo oluphakeme. ).

Imvamisa, akukho kulezi zici ezimbili okungaba yinkinga, kodwa izibalo zabantu zanamuhla zidala isiphepho esihle kakhulu.

Okokuqala, amazwe amaningi aseNtshonalanga axhasa ngezimali izinhlelo zawo zempesheni ngokusebenzisa imodeli ye-pay-as-you-go (okungukuthi i-Ponzi scheme) esebenza kuphela lapho uxhaso olusha lufakwa ohlelweni ngomnotho okhulayo kanye nenzuzo entsha yentela evela kusizinda sesakhamuzi esikhulayo. Ngeshwa, njengoba singena emhlabeni onemisebenzi embalwa (kuchazwe kweyethu Ikusasa Lomsebenzi series) futhi njengoba inani labantu lincipha ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba othuthukile (kuchazwe esahlukweni esandulele), le modeli ye-pay-as-you-go izoqala ukuphelelwa uphethiloli, okungenzeka iwe ngaphansi kwesisindo sayo.

Nalesi simo asiyona imfihlo. Ukuphumelela kwezinhlelo zethu zempesheni kuyindaba yokukhuluma eqhubekayo phakathi nomjikelezo omusha wokhetho. Lokhu kudala ugqozi kubadala ukuthi basheshe bathathe umhlalaphansi ukuze baqale ukuqoqa amasheke empesheni kuyilapho uhlelo luhlala luxhaswe ngokugcwele—ngaleyo ndlela kusheshisa usuku lapho lezi zinhlelo ziphazamiseka khona.

Ngokuxhasa ngezimali izinhlelo zethu zempesheni, kunohlu lwezinye izinselelo ezibangelwa ukumpunga ngokushesha kwabantu. Lokhu kubandakanya:

Abasebenzi abanciphayo bangase babangele ukwehla kwamandla emali emiholweni kuleyo mikhakha ephuza ukusebenzisa ikhompyutha nemishini ezenzakalelayo;
Izintela ezinyusiwe ezizukulwaneni ezincane ukuze kuxhaswe izinzuzo zempesheni, okungase kudaleke isithebe sezizukulwane ezisencane ukuba zisebenze;
Ubukhulu bukahulumeni ngokuhlanganisa imali yokunakekelwa kwezempilo kanye nempesheni;
Umnotho ohamba kancane, njengezizukulwane ezicebe kakhulu (i-Civics kanye nama-Boomers), ziqala ukuchitha isikhathi esiningi ukuze zixhase iminyaka yazo yomhlalaphansi eyandisayo;
Ukwehliswa kokutshalwa kwezimali emnothweni omkhulu njengoba izikhwama zempesheni ezizimele zihoxa ekuxhaseni ukulingana kwamabhizinisi azimele kanye namadili okuthola imali ukuze kuxhaswe ukuhoxiswa kwempesheni kwamalungu azo; futhi
Ukwehla kwamandla emali isikhathi eside uma amazwe amancane ephoqeleka ukuthi aphrinte imali ukuze abhekane nezinhlelo zawo zempesheni eziwohlokayo.

Isinyathelo sikahulumeni ngokumelene negagasi labantu

Uma kubhekwa zonke lezi zimo ezingezinhle, ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke sebevele benza ucwaningo futhi bazama amaqhinga anhlobonhlobo okubambezela noma ukugwema okubi kakhulu kwaleli bhomu labantu.

Iminyaka yokuthatha umhlalaphansi. Isinyathelo sokuqala ohulumeni abaningi abazosiqasha wukwandisa iminyaka yomhlalaphansi. Lokhu kuzobambezela igagasi lezicelo zempesheni ngeminyaka embalwa, kuyenze ilawuleke. Ngaphandle kwalokho, amazwe amancane angase akhethe ukuyichitha ngokuphelele iminyaka yokuthatha umhlalaphansi ukuze anikeze abantu abadala amandla okulawula lapho bekhetha ukuthatha umhlalaphansi nokuthi bahlala isikhathi esingakanani emsebenzini. Le ndlela izothandwa kakhulu njengoba isilinganiso sokuphila komuntu siqala ukudlula iminyaka eyi-150, njengoba kuxoxiwe ngakho esahlukweni esilandelayo.

Ukuqasha kabusha abadala. Lokhu kusiletha ephuzwini lesibili lapho ohulumeni bezokhuthaza izinkampani ezizimele ukuthi ziqashe kabusha abantu abadala emsebenzini wabo (okungenzeka bafezwe ngezibonelelo nezibonelelo zentela). Leli su selivele lithola impumelelo enkulu e-Japan, lapho abanye abaqashi khona beqasha abasebenzi babo asebethathe umhlalaphansi njengezisebenzi zetoho (nakuba behola kancane). Umthombo owengeziwe wemali engenayo unciphisa isidingo sabadala sosizo lukahulumeni.

Impesheni yangasese. Esikhathini esifushane, uhulumeni uzophinde andise izinxephezelo noma ashaye imithetho ekhuthaza iminikelo emikhulu yezinkampani ezizimele ezindlekweni zempesheni nezokunakekelwa kwempilo.

Imali engenayo yentela. Ukwenyuka kwezintela, esikhathini esiseduze, ukuze kukhokhelwe impesheni yabadala kuyinto engenakugwenywa. Lona umthwalo izizukulwane ezincane okuyodingeka ziwuthwale, kodwa ozothanjiswa ngenxa yokuncipha kwezindleko zokuphila (kuchazwe ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lomsebenzi).

Ingeniso Eyisisekelo. The Imali Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke (I-UBI, futhi, ichazwe ngokuningiliziwe ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lomsebenzi) iyimali engenayo enikezwa zonke izakhamuzi ngazinye futhi ngaphandle kwemibandela, okungukuthi ngaphandle kokuhlolwa kwendlela noma imfuneko yomsebenzi. Nguhulumeni okunika imali yamahhala nyanga zonke, njengempesheni yabadala kodwa yawo wonke umuntu.

Ukulungisa kabusha uhlelo lwezomnotho ukuze kufakwe i-UBI exhaswa ngokugcwele kuzonikeza abantu abadala ithemba emalini yabo engenayo futhi ngenxa yalokho kubakhuthaze ukuthi basebenzise ngendlela efanayo neminyaka yabo yokusebenza, esikhundleni sokuqongelela imali yabo ukuze bazivikele ekuwohlokeni komnotho okuzayo. Lokhu kuzoqinisekisa ukuthi ingxenye enkulu yabantu iyaqhubeka nokufaka isandla emnothweni osekelwe ekusetshenzisweni.

Ukuvuselela ukunakekelwa kwasebekhulile

Ngokwezinga eliphelele, ohulumeni bazophinde bafune ukwehlisa izindleko zomphakathi esezigugile ngezindlela ezimbili: okokuqala, ngokwenza kabusha ukunakekelwa kwabadala ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuzimela kwezakhamuzi esezikhulile bese ngokwenza ngcono impilo yomzimba yabadala.

Ukuqala ngephuzu lokuqala, ohulumeni abaningi emhlabeni jikelele abahlomele ukubhekana nenqwaba yabantu abadala abadinga ukunakekelwa kwesikhathi eside nokuqondene nomuntu uqobo. Izizwe eziningi azinawo abasebenzi abadingekayo, kanye nendawo etholakalayo yamakhaya asebekhulile.

Kungakho ohulumeni besekela izinhlelo ezisiza ukusabalalisa ukunakekelwa kwabadala futhi zivumele abadala ukuthi baguge ezindaweni lapho benethezeke khona kakhulu: amakhaya abo.

Izindlu eziphezulu ziyathuthuka ukufaka izinketho ezifana ukuphila ngokuzimela, ukuhlala ndawonye, ukunakekelwa kwasekhaya futhi ukunakekelwa kwenkumbulo, izinketho ezizongena kancane kancane esikhundleni sekhaya labahlengikazi elivamile, eliya ngokuya libiza, elilingana-wonke. Ngokufanayo, imindeni evela emasikweni nasezizweni ezithile iya ngokuya yamukela indawo yokuhlala yezizwe ngezizwe, lapho abantu abadala bethuthela ezindlini zezingane zabo noma abazukulu (noma okuphambene nalokho).

Ngenhlanhla, ubuchwepheshe obusha buzosiza lolu shintsho lokunakekelwa kwasekhaya ngezindlela ezihlukahlukene.

wearables. Izinto ezigqokwayo nezifakwayo zokuqapha impilo zizoqala ukunikezwa abantu abadala ngodokotela bazo. Lawa madivayisi azohlala eqapha isimo sebhayoloji (futhi ekugcineni esengokwengqondo) sabagqoki babo abadala, babelane ngaleyo datha namalungu abo omndeni amancane kanye nabaphathi bezokwelapha abakude. Lokhu kuzoqinisekisa ukuthi bangakwazi ukubhekana ngqo nanoma yikuphi ukwehla okubonakalayo kwempilo ephezulu.

Amakhaya ahlakaniphile anikwe amandla nge-AI. Nakuba okugqokekayo okukhulunywe ngenhla kuzokwabelana ngedatha yezempilo ephezulu nomndeni nezisebenzi zezempilo, lawa madivayisi azoqala ukwabelana ngaleyo datha nabantu abadala emakhaya abahlala kuwo. Lawa makhaya ahlakaniphile azonikwa amandla isistimu yokuhlakanipha yokwenziwa esekelwe emafini eqapha abantu abadala njengoba bezulazula. amakhaya abo. Kwabadala, lokhu kungase kubukeke njengokuvuleka kweminyango futhi izibani zisebenze ngokuzenzakalelayo njengoba bengena emagumbini; ikhishi elizenzakalelayo elilungiselela ukudla okunempilo; umsizi womuntu siqu ovulwe ngezwi, onikwe amandla kuwebhu; ngisho nocingo oluzenzakalelayo oluya kwabezimo eziphuthumayo uma ngabe umuntu omdala eba nengozi ekhaya.

Ama-Exoskeletons. Ngokufanayo nezikebhe nama-scooters aphezulu, insiza enkulu elandelayo yokuhamba izoba izingubo ezithambile. Akufanele kudidaniswe nama-exoskeleton aklanyelwe ukunikeza izisebenzi ezisanda kuzalwa nezakha amandla angaphezu kwawomuntu, lezi zingubo zokugqoka izingubo zikagesi ezigqokwa ngaphezulu noma ngaphansi kwezingubo zokusekela ukunyakaza kwabantu abadala ukubasiza baphile ukuphila okumatasa, kwansuku zonke (bheka isibonelo one futhi ezimbili).

Ukunakekelwa kwezempilo kwabantu abadala

Emhlabeni wonke, ukunakekelwa kwezempilo kuqeda amaphesenti akhula njalo esabelomali sikahulumeni. Futhi ngokusho kwe- OECD, abantu abadala bathatha okungenani amaphesenti angu-40-50 emali esetshenziswa ekunakekelweni kwezempilo, izikhathi ezintathu kuya kweziyisihlanu kunezabantu abadala. Okubi nakakhulu, ngo-2030, ochwepheshe abane- I-Nuffield Trust iphrojekthi yokwenyuka ngamaphesenti angama-32 kwasebekhulile abakhubazeke okulingene noma okunzima, ngokwengezwe ngamaphesenti angama-32 kuya kwangama-50 abantu abadala abahlushwa yizimo ezingamahlalakhona njengesifo senhliziyo, isifo samathambo, isifo sikashukela, unhlangothi, nokuwohloka komqondo.

Ngenhlanhla, isayensi yezokwelapha yenza intuthuko enkulu emandleni ethu okuphila ukuphila okumatasa kuze kube yiminyaka yethu yobudala. Uma kubhekwa kabanzi esahlukweni esilandelayo, lezi zindlela ezintsha zihlanganisa izidakamizwa nemithi yofuzo egcina amathambo ethu eminyene, imisipha yethu iqinile, nezingqondo zethu zibukhali.

Ngokufanayo, isayensi yezokwelapha nayo isivumela ukuba siphile isikhathi eside. Emazweni athuthukile, isilinganiso seminyaka yethu yokuphila sesivele senyuke sisuka ku-~35 ngo-1820 saya ku-80 ngo-2003—lokhu kuzoqhubeka nokukhula. Nakuba kungase kuphuze kakhulu kuma-Boomers and Civics, Millennials kanye nezizukulwane eziwalandelayo zingalubona kahle usuku lapho u-100 eba ama-40 amasha. ogogo nomkhulu, namadlozi benza.

Futhi lokho kusiletha esihlokweni sesahluko sethu esilandelayo: Kuthiwani uma bekungadingeki ukuba siguge nhlobo? Kuyosho ukuthini lapho isayensi yezokwelapha ivumela abantu ukuba baguge bangagugi? Umphakathi wethu uzozilungisa kanjani?