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Amapulazi ahlakaniphile naqondile: Ikusasa lokudla P4

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 08:13

Ngezindlela eziningi, amapulazi anamuhla asethuthuke kakhulu futhi ayinkimbinkimbi kunalawo akudala. Ngendlela efanayo, abalimi banamuhla baneminyaka elula futhi banolwazi kunalabo bakudala.

Usuku olujwayelekile lwamahora ayi-12 kuya kwayi-18 kubalimi namuhla, lubandakanya uhla lwemisebenzi eyinkimbinkimbi, ehlanganisa nokuhlolwa njalo kwamasimu ezitshalo nemfuyo; ukugcinwa njalo kwemishini nemishini yasepulazini; amahora okusebenza ashiwo imishini nemishini; ukuphatha izisebenzi zasemapulazini (kokubili izisebenzi zesikhashana nomndeni); imihlangano nongoti abahlukahlukene nabeluleki bezolimo; ukuqapha amanani ezimakethe kanye nokufaka ama-oda ngokuphakelayo, imbewu, umanyolo kanye nabaphakeli bamafutha; izingcingo zokuthengisa nabathengi bezitshalo noma imfuyo; bese uhlela usuku olulandelayo ngenkathi uzinika isikhathi sokuphumula. Khumbula ukuthi lolu wuhlu olwenziwe lula kuphela; cishe ayinayo imisebenzi eminingi ekhethekile ehlukile ezinhlotsheni zezitshalo nemfuyo umlimi ngamunye alawulayo.

Isimo sabalimi namuhla siwumphumela oqondile wezimakethe ezibeka ingcindezi enkulu emkhakheni wezolimo ukuze ukhiqize kakhudlwana. Uyabona, njengoba inani labantu emhlabeni landa kakhulu emashumini ambalwa eminyaka adlule, nesidingo sokudla sakhula kanye nakho. Lokhu kukhula kwabangela ukwakhiwa kwezinhlobo zezitshalo eziningi, ukuphathwa kwemfuyo, kanye nemishini yokulima emikhulu, eyinkimbinkimbi, nemba eqolo ngendlela emangalisayo. Lezi zindlela ezintsha, ngenkathi zivumela abalimi ukuthi bakhiqize ukudla okuningi kunanini ngaphambili emlandweni, nazo zacindezela abaningi babo esikweletini esinzima, esingenasiphelo ukuze bakwazi ukukhokhela zonke izithuthukisi.

Ngakho yebo, ukuba umlimi wesimanje akulula. Akudingekile ukuba babe ngochwepheshe kwezolimo kuphela, kodwa futhi baqhubeke bephezulu kwezitayela zakamuva kwezobuchwepheshe, ibhizinisi, kanye nezezimali ukuze nje bahlale besebenza. Umlimi wesimanje kungenzeka abe yisisebenzi esinekhono nesiguquguqukayo kunazo zonke kuzo zonke izingcweti ezikhona. Inkinga ukuthi ukuba umlimi sekuzoba nzima kakhulu esikhathini esizayo.

Ezingxoxweni zethu zangaphambilini kulolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lokudla, siyazi ukuthi inani labantu emhlabeni lizokhula ngabanye abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili ngo-2040, kuyilapho ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzonciphisa inani lendawo etholakalayo yokulima ukudla. Lokhu kusho ukuthi (yebo, ukuqagele) abalimi bazobhekana nolunye futhi umfutho wemakethe ukuze bakhiqize nakakhulu. Sizokhuluma ngomphumela omubi lokhu okuzoba nawo epulazini lomndeni elivamile maduze nje, kodwa ake siqale ngamathoyizi amasha acwebezelayo abalimi abazokwazi ukudlala ngawo kuqala!

Ukukhuphuka kwepulazi elihlakaniphile

Amapulazi esikhathi esizayo adinga ukuthi abe imishini yokukhiqiza, futhi ubuchwepheshe buzokwenza abalimi bakwazi ukufeza lokho kanye ngokuqapha nokulinganisa yonke into. Ake siqale nge Inthanethi Things-inethiwekhi yezinzwa ezixhunywe kuzo zonke izisetshenziswa, isilwane sasepulazini, nesisebenzi esihlala siqapha indawo, umsebenzi, nokusebenza kwazo (noma impilo uma kuziwa ezilwaneni nasezisebenzini). Idatha eqoqiwe ingasetshenziswa yisikhungo somyalo esimaphakathi sepulazi ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukunyakaza kanye nemisebenzi eyenziwa yiyo yonke into exhunyiwe.

Ikakhulukazi, le-inthanethi Yezinto eklanyelwe ipulazi izoxhunywa efwini, lapho idatha ingabiwa khona nezinhlobonhlobo zezinsizakalo zeselula ezigxile ezolimo kanye namafemu okubonisana. Ekugcineni, lobu buchwepheshe bungabandakanya izinhlelo zokusebenza zeselula ezithuthukisiwe ezinikeza abalimi idatha yesikhathi sangempela mayelana nokukhiqiza kwepulazi labo kanye nerekhodi laso sonke isenzo abasenzayo phakathi nosuku, ukubasiza ukuthi bagcine umbhalo onembile ukuze bahlele umsebenzi wangosuku olulandelayo. Ukwengeza, ingase futhi ifake uhlelo lokusebenza oluxhuma nedatha yesimo sezulu ukuze iphakamise izikhathi ezifanelekile zokutshala imbewu, ukufaka imfuyo endlini, noma ukuvuna izitshalo.

Ekugcineni, amafemu ochwepheshe angasiza amapulazi amakhulu ukuthi ahlaziye idatha eqoqiwe ukuze akhiqize imininingwane esezingeni eliphezulu. Lolu sizo lungabandakanya ukuqapha isimo sempilo yesikhathi sangempela saso sonke isilwane sasepulazini kanye nokuhlela abaphakeli bepulazi okuzenzakalelayo balethe ingxube yokudla okunomsoco okuyiyonayona ukuze kugcinwe lezi zilwane zijabule, ziphilile futhi zikhiqiza. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amafemu angakwazi futhi ukunquma ukwakheka kwenhlabathi yesizini yepulazi kusuka kudatha bese ephakamisa izilimo ezintsha ze-superfood kanye ne-synthetic biology (synbio) ezizotshalwa, ngokusekelwe emananini aphezulu abikezelwe ezimakethe. Ngokweqile, izinketho zokususa i-elementi yomuntu ngokuphelele zingase zivele ekuhlaziyeni kwazo, ngokufaka esikhundleni salabo abasebenza epulazini izinhlobo ezahlukene zokuzenzela—okungukuthi amarobhothi.

Ibutho lamarobhothi ezithupha eziluhlaza

Nakuba izimboni sezizishintshashintsha kakhulu emashumini ambalwa eminyaka adlule, ukulima bekuhamba kancane ukuhambisana nalo mkhuba. Lokhu ngokwengxenye kungenxa yezindleko ezinkulu zemali ezihilelekile ekuzishintsheni kanye neqiniso lokuthi amapulazi asevele ebiza ngokwanele ngaphandle kwabo bonke lobu buchwepheshe be-highfalutin'. Kodwa njengoba lobu buchwepheshe be-highfalutin 'kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemishini kuncipha ngokuzayo, futhi njengoba imali eyengeziwe yokutshalwa kwezimali ikhukhula imboni yezolimo (ukuze basebenzise ithuba lokushoda kokudla okubangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokukhula kwenani labantu), abalimi abaningi bazothola amathuba amasha okusebenza. .

Phakathi kwamathoyizi amasha abizayo abalimi abazophatha amapulazi abo ngawo kukhona ama-drones ezolimo akhethekile. Eqinisweni, amapulazi akusasa ayekwazi ukubona inqwaba (noma izixuku) zalezi zindiza ezingenayo ezindizayo zizungeza izindawo zazo nganoma isiphi isikhathi, zenza imisebenzi eminingi ehlukahlukene, njengale: ukuqapha ukwakheka komhlabathi, impilo yezitshalo, nezinhlelo zokunisela; ukulahla umanyolo owengeziwe, izibulala-zinambuzane kanye nemithi yokubulala ukhula ezindaweni ezinezinkinga ezihlonzwe ngaphambili; ukusebenza njengenja eyelusayo eqondisa imfuyo enhlanhlathayo ibuyele epulazini; ukwesabisa noma ngisho nokubulala izinhlobo zezilwane ezilambele izitshalo; kanye nokuhlinzeka ngokuvikeleka ngokugadwa okungapheli emoyeni.

Okunye okuthokozisayo wukuthi ogandaganda bakusasa bazoba yiziqu ze-PhD eziqinile uma kuqhathaniswa nogandaganda bakudala, abathembekile banamuhla. Lezi ogandaganda abahlakaniphile-okuvunyelaniswa esikhungweni sokuyala esimaphakathi sepulazi - kuzodabula amasimu epulazi ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuze kulinywe kahle inhlabathi, kutshalwe imbewu, kufafaze umanyolo, futhi kamuva kuvune izitshalo.

Izinhlobonhlobo zamanye amarobhothi amancane angase agcine egcwele kulawa mapulazi, ethatha indima eyengeziwe evame ukwenziwa izisebenzi zasemapulazini ngezikhathi ezithile, njengokukha izithelo ngazinye ezihlahleni noma emivinini. Okuxakayo, singase sibone izinyosi zamarobhothi esikhathini esizayo!

Ikusasa lepulazi lomndeni

Nakuba zonke lezi zinqubo ezintsha zizwakala zihlaba umxhwele, singathini ngekusasa labalimi abavamile, ikakhulukazi labo abangabanikazi bamapulazi emindeni? Ingabe la mapulazi—adlule ezizukulwaneni ngezizukulwane—azokwazi ukuhlala eqinile 'njengamapulazi omndeni'? Noma bazonyamalala ngegagasi lokuthengwa kwezinkampani?

Njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, amashumi eminyaka ezayo azokwethula uhlobo lwesikhwama esixubile kumlimi ojwayelekile. Ukukhula okucatshangelwayo kwamanani okudla kusho ukuthi abalimi bakusasa bangazithola sebebhukuda ngemali engukheshi, kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zezimali zokuqhuba ipulazi elikhiqizayo (ngenxa yababonisi ababizayo, imishini, kanye nembewu ye-synbio) kungakhansela leyo nzuzo, ebashiya bengengcono kunanamuhla. Ngeshwa labo, izinto zisengaba zimbi kakhulu; ngokudla kuba yimpahla eshisayo ongatshala kuyo ngasekupheleni kwawo-2030; laba balimi kungase kudingeke ukuthi balwe nezifiso zezinkampani eziqinile ukuze bagcine amapulazi abo.

Ngakho-ke uma kubhekwa umongo owethulwe ngenhla, sidinga ukuhlukanisa izindlela ezintathu okungenzeka abalimi bakusasa bazithathe ukuze basinde emhlabeni wakusasa olambele ukudla:

Okokuqala, abalimi okungenzeka ukuthi bagcine ukulawula amapulazi emindeni yabo kuzoba yilabo abanolwazi olwanele lokuhlukanisa izindlela zabo zokuthola imali. Ngokwesibonelo, ngaphandle kokukhiqiza ukudla (izitshalo nemfuyo), ukondla (ukondla imfuyo), noma amafutha ezinto eziphilayo, laba balimi—ngenxa yokwenziwa kwezinto eziphilayo—bangase futhi batshale izitshalo ezikhiqiza ngokwemvelo amapulasitiki noma imithi yemithi. Uma beseduze ngokwanele nedolobha elikhulu, bangakwazi ngisho nokwenza uhlobo oluhlukile lomkhiqizo wabo 'wasendaweni' ukuze bawuthengise ngemali ekhokhwayo (njengoba kwenza lo mndeni wabalimi kulokhu Iphrofayili ye-NPR).

Ukwengeza, ngomshini onzima wamapulazi akusasa, umlimi oyedwa angakwazi futhi uzophatha umhlaba omkhudlwana. Lokhu kuzonikeza umndeni wabalimi indawo yokunikeza izinhlobonhlobo zezinye izinkonzo ezakhiweni zabo, okuhlanganisa izindawo zokunakekela izingane, amakamu ehlobo, indawo yokulala neyokudla kwasekuseni, njll. Ezingeni elikhudlwana, abalimi bangakwazi ngisho ukuguqula (noma ukuqasha) ingxenye yomhlaba wabo ukuze bakhiqize amandla avuselelekayo ngokusebenzisa ilanga, umoya noma i-biomass, futhi bawadayisele umphakathi ozungezile.

Kodwa-ke, akubona bonke abalimi abazoba ngamabhizinisi. Iqembu lesibili labalimi lizobona umbhalo odongeni bese liphendukela kwelinye ukuze lihlale lintanta. Laba balimi (ngokuholwa ngabagqugquzeli bamapulazi) bazokwakha amaqoqo amakhulu okulima ngokuzithandela azosebenza ngendlela efanayo nenyunyana. Lawa maqoqo ngeke ahlanganise lutho nobunikazi bomhlaba obuhlangene, kodwa azohlangana nakho konke ukukhiqiza amandla okuthenga amaqoqo ukuze akhiphe izaphulelo ezinkulu ezinsizeni zokubonisana, imishini, nembewu ethuthukisiwe. Ngakho-ke, ngamafuphi, lawa maqoqo azogcina izindleko ziphansi futhi agcine amazwi omlimi ezwakala kosopolitiki, kuyilapho egcina amandla akhulayo e-Big Agri elawula.

Ekugcineni, kuzoba nalabo balimi abazonquma ukuphonsa ithawula. Lokhu kuzovama ikakhulukazi kuleyo mindeni yabalimi lapho izingane zingenaso isithakazelo sokuqhubeka nempilo yasepulazini. Ngenhlanhla, le mindeni okungenani izokhothama ngeqanda elikhulu lesidleke ngokuthengisa amapulazi abo kumafemu okutshalwa kwezimali ancintisanayo, ama-hedge funds, izimali zengcebo yobukhosi, namapulazi ezinkampani ezinkulu. Futhi kuye ngesilinganiso samathrendi achazwe ngenhla, kanye nasezingxenyeni ezidlule zalolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lokudla, leli qoqo lesithathu lingase libe likhulu kunawo wonke. Ekugcineni, ipulazi lomndeni lingaba uhlobo olusengozini ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040.

Ukukhuphuka kwepulazi eliqondile

Ngaphandle kokulima kwendabuko, kukhona uhlobo olusha kakhulu lokulima oluzovela emashumini eminyaka ezayo: ukulima okuqondile. Ngokungafani nokulima kusukela eminyakeni eyi-10,000 edlule, ukulima okuqondile kwethula umkhuba wokupakisha amapulazi amaningana phezu kwelinye. Yebo, kuzwakala lapho ekuqaleni, kodwa lawa mapulazi angase adlale indima ebalulekile ekuvikelekeni kokudla kwesibalo sabantu esikhulayo. Ake sizibhekisise.

Amapulazi aqondile aye athandwa ngumsebenzi we Dickson Despommier kanti ezinye sezivele zakhiwe emhlabeni wonke ukuhlola lo mqondo. Izibonelo zamapulazi amile zifaka okulandelayo: Nuvege eKyoto, Japan; I-Sky Greens eSingapore; I-TerraSphere eVancouver, eBritish Columbia; I-Plantagon eLinkoping, eSweden; futhi Ukuvuna Okuqondile eJackson, Wyoming.

Ipulazi eliqondile elifanele libukeka kanje: ibhilidi eliphezulu lapho iningi lephansi lizinikele ekukhuliseni izitshalo ezehlukene emibhedeni enqwabelene ngokuvundlile enye phezu kwenye. Le mibhede inikezwa ukukhanya kwe-LED okwenziwe ngokwezifiso esitshalweni (yebo, lokhu kuyinto), eduze kwamanzi afakwe izakhi ezilethwa ama-aeroponics (alungele izitshalo zezimpande), ama-hydroponics (alungele imifino namajikijolo) noma ukuchelela nge-drip (okusanhlamvu). Uma isikhule ngokugcwele, imibhede ipakishwa ku-conveyor ukuze ivunwe bese ihanjiswa ezindaweni zendawo. Ngokuqondene nesakhiwo ngokwaso, sinamandla ngokugcwele (okungukuthi i-carbon-neutral) ngenhlanganisela ye amafasitela aqoqa amandla elanga, amajeneretha e-geothermal, nama-anaerobic digesters angaphinda asebenzise imfucuza ibe amandla (kokubili okuvela esakhiweni nasemphakathini).

Kuzwakala kumnandi. Kodwa yiziphi izinzuzo zangempela zala mapulazi aqondile noma kunjalo?

Kukhona ezimbalwa ngempela—izinzuzo zihlanganisa: akukho ukugeleza kwezolimo; ukukhiqizwa kwezitshalo unyaka wonke; akukho ukulahlekelwa kwezitshalo ngenxa yezenzakalo zezulu ezinzima; sebenzisa amanzi angaphansi ngamaphesenti angama-90 kunamapulazi esintu; awekho amakhemikhali ezolimo adingekayo ezibulala-zinambuzane nezibulala ukhula; asikho isidingo sezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi; ilungisa amanzi ampunga; kudala imisebenzi yendawo; ihlinzeka ngemikhiqizo emisha kubantu abahlala emadolobheni; ingasebenzisa izakhiwo zedolobha ezilahliwe, futhi ingatshala ama-biofuels noma izidakamizwa ezithathwe esitshalweni. Kodwa akugcini lapho!

Iqhinga ngala mapulazi aqondile ukuthi ahamba phambili ekukhuleni ngangokunokwenzeka endaweni encane ngangokunokwenzeka. Ihektare elilodwa lasendlini lepulazi elimile likhiqiza kakhulu kunamahektha ayi-10 angaphandle epulazi lendabuko. Ukukusiza ukuthi ujabulele lokhu ngokuqhubekayo, i-Despommier uthi ukuthi kuzothatha amamitha-skwele angu-300 kuphela wendawo yasendlini efuywayo—ubukhulu befulethi le-studio—ukukhiqiza ukudla okwanele komuntu oyedwa (ama-calories angu-2,000 ngomuntu ngamunye, ngosuku unyaka). Lokhu kusho ukuthi ipulazi elimile elicishe libe yizitezi ezingu-30 ukuphakama ngobukhulu bebhlokhi yedolobha elilodwa lingadla kalula abantu abangaba ngu-50,000—ngokuyisisekelo, inani labantu bedolobha lonke.

Kodwa ngokungangabazeki umthelela omkhulu wamapulazi aqondile angaba nawo ukunciphisa inani lendawo yokulima esetshenziswa emhlabeni jikelele. Cabanga nje uma inqwaba yalawa mapulazi amile ayakhelwe eduze kwezindawo zasemadolobheni ukuze ondle abantu bakhona, inani lomhlaba elidingekayo ekulimeni ngokwesiko lingancishiswa. Leyo ndawo yokulima engadingeki ingabuyiselwa emvelweni futhi ngokunokwenzeka isize ukubuyisela i-ecosystem yethu eyonakele (ah, amaphupho).

Indlela engaphambili kanye necala lezimakethe

Ukufingqa, isimo okungenzeka kakhulu kule minyaka engamashumi amabili ezayo ukuthi amapulazi endabuko azohlakanipha; izophathwa kakhulu amarobhothi kunabantu, futhi izoba ngeyabantu abambalwa nabancane abalimayo. Kodwa njengoba ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuya kwesabisa ngeminyaka yawo-2040, amapulazi aqondile aphephile futhi asebenza kahle azogcina ethathe indawo yala mapulazi ahlakaniphile, athathe indima yokondla abantu bethu abaningi bakusasa.

Okokugcina, ngingathanda futhi ukusho inothi elibalulekile elingaseceleni ngaphambi kokuthi sidlulele esiphethweni sochungechunge lwekusasa Lokudla: izinkinga eziningi zanamuhla (nakusasa) zokushoda kokudla empeleni azihlangene nokuthi singalimi ukudla okwanele. Iqiniso lokuthi izingxenye eziningi zase-Afrika nase-India zihlushwa yizikhathi zendlala minyaka yonke, kuyilapho i-US ibhekene nesifo sokukhuluphala esibangelwa i-Cheeto ikhuluma kakhulu. Kalula nje, akukhona ukuthi sinenkinga yokukhulisa ukudla, kodwa kunalokho sinenkinga yokulethwa kokudla.

Isibonelo, emazweni amaningi asathuthuka, kuvame ukuba nengcebo yezinsiza namandla okulima, kodwa ukuntuleka kwengqalasizinda efana nemigwaqo, indawo yokugcina izinto yesimanje, nezinsiza zohwebo, kanye nezimakethe eziseduze. Ngenxa yalokhu, abalimi abaningi kulezi zifunda bazilimela bona kuphela ukudla okwanele, ngoba asikho isidingo sokuba nensada uma izobola ngenxa yokushoda kwezindawo zokulondoloza ezifanele, imigwaqo yokusheshisa ukuthunyelwa kwezitshalo kubathengi, nezimakethe ezizodayisa izilimo. . (Ungafunda ukubhala okuhle ngaleli phuzu lapha I-Verge.)

Kulungile bafo, senifike lapha. Manje sekuyisikhathi sokubheka ukuthi ukudla kwakho kuzobukeka kanjani emhlabeni oxakile wakusasa. Ikusasa Lokudla P5.