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ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Amandla elanga kanye nokukhuphuka kwe-inthanethi yamandla: Ikusasa Lamandla P4

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 10:00

Sikhulume ngokuwa kwe amandla angcolile. Sikhulume nge ukuphela kwamafutha. Futhi sisanda kukhuluma ngokukhuphuka kwe izimoto kagesi. Okulandelayo, sizokhuluma ngamandla aqhuba zonke lezi zimo—futhi izoshintsha umhlaba ngendlela esiwazi ngayo eminyakeni engamashumi amabili kuya kwamathathu.

Cishe amandla amahhala, angenamkhawulo, ahlanzekile, avuselelekayo.

Kuyinto enkulu. Futhi yingakho lonke lolu chungechunge luzohlanganisa lawo mathrendi nobuchwepheshe obuzoshintsha isintu sisuke ekubeni sengozini yamandla siye emhlabeni ogcwele amandla kuyilapho sikhuluma ngemiphumela lokhu okuyoba nayo emnothweni wethu, ezombusazwe zomhlaba, kanye nempilo yakho yansuku zonke. Lezi ezinye izinto ezinhle kakhulu, ngiyazi, kodwa ungakhathazeki, ngeke ngihambe ngokushesha kakhulu njengoba ngikuqondisa kukho.

Ake siqale ngendlela esobala kakhulu yamandla acishe abe mahhala, angenamkhawulo, ahlanzekile, avuselelekayo: amandla elanga.

Ilanga: kungani lizamazama futhi kungani lingenakugwenywa

Njengamanje, sonke sesiyazi ukuthi amandla elanga amayelana nani: ngokuyisisekelo sithatha amaphaneli amakhulu amunca amandla futhi siwakhomba kureactor yethu enkulukazi yesistimu sonozungezilanga (ilanga) ngenhloso yokuguqula ukukhanya kwelanga kube ugesi osebenzisekayo. Amandla amahhala, angenamkhawulo, futhi ahlanzekile. Kuzwakala kumangalisa! Pho kungani i-solar ingazange iqale emashumini eminyaka edlule ngemuva kokusungulwa kobuchwepheshe?

Hhayi-ke, ipolitiki nothando lwethu ngowoyela oshibhile eceleni, isikhubekiso esikhulu kube yizindleko. Kwakubiza kakhulu ukukhiqiza amanani amakhulu kagesi usebenzisa i-solar, ikakhulukazi uma kuqhathaniswa namalahle avuthayo noma uwoyela. Kodwa njengoba benza njalo, izinto ziyashintsha, futhi kulokhu, zibe ngcono.

Uyabona, umehluko oyinhloko phakathi kwemithombo yamandla elanga ne-carbon-based (njengamalahle namafutha) ukuthi enye iwubuchwepheshe, kanti enye iwukuba uphethiloli. Ubuchwepheshe buyathuthuka, buba ishibhile futhi bunikeze inzuzo enkulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi; kuyilapho ngamafutha ezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi, ezimweni eziningi, inani lawo liyakhuphuka, lintengantenge, liguquke, futhi ekugcineni liyehla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Lobu budlelwano budlale ngokusobala kusukela ekuqaleni kweminyaka yawo-2000. Ubuchwepheshe be-solar buye babona inani lamandla elikhiqiza kahle i-skyrocket, konke ngenkathi izindleko zabo zehla (amaphesenti angu-75 eminyakeni emihlanu edlule kuphela). Ngo-2020, amandla elanga azoncintisana namanani kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi, ngisho nangaphandle kwemixhaso. Ngo-2030, amandla elanga azobiza ingxenye encane yalokho okwenziwa ngamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi futhi asebenze ngokuphumelelayo. Khonamanjalo, uwoyela ukhuphuke ngezindleko phakathi neminyaka yawo-2000, eceleni kwezindleko (ezezimali nezemvelo) zokwakha kanye nokugcina izimboni zamandla kaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi (njengamalahle).

Uma silandela izitayela zelanga, i-futurist uRay Kurzweil ubikezele ukuthi ilanga lingahlangabezana namaphesenti angu-100 wezidingo zamandla zanamuhla ngaphansi nje kweminyaka engamashumi amabili. Kakade ukukhiqizwa kwamandla elanga sekuphindeke kabili njalo eminyakeni emibili kule minyaka engu-30 edlule. Ngokufanayo, i- I-International Energy Agency yabikezela ukuthi ilanga (ilanga) liyoba umthombo kagesi omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni ngo-2050, ngaphambi kakhulu kwazo zonke ezinye izinhlobo zezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi nezivuselelwa kabusha kuhlangene.

Singena enkathini lapho kungakhathaliseki ukuthi angakanani amandla kaphethiloli atholakalayo, amandla avuselelekayo asazoba ashibhile. Ngakho-ke lokhu kusho ukuthini emhlabeni wangempela?

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwelanga nokwamukelwa kufinyelela endaweni ebilayo

Ushintsho luzofika kancane ekuqaleni, khona-ke kungazelelwe, konke kuzohluka.

Lapho abanye abantu becabanga ngokuphehlwa kwamandla elanga, basacabanga ngezimboni zamandla elanga ezizimele lapho amakhulu, mhlawumbe izinkulungwane, zamaphaneli elanga akhapheze udengezi olukhulu logwadule endaweni ethile eqhelile yezwe. Uma sikhuluma iqiniso, ukufakwa okunjalo kuzodlala indima enkulu ekuhlanganiseni kwethu kwamandla esikhathini esizayo, ikakhulukazi ngohlobo lokuqanjwa kabusha okuzayo.

Izibonelo ezimbili ezisheshayo: Eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, sizobona ubuchwepheshe bamaseli elanga bukhulisa amandla abo ukushintsha ukukhanya kwelanga kube amandla kusuka kumaphesenti angu-25 kuya cishe kumaphesenti angu-50. Ngaleso sikhathi, abadlali abakhulu njenge-IBM bazongena emakethe nabaqoqi belanga abangase khulisa amandla amalanga ayizi-2,000.

Yize lezi zinto ezintsha zithembisa, zimele ingxenye encane yalokho uhlelo lwethu lwamandla oluzoguqukela kukho. Ikusasa lamandla limayelana nokwabiwa kwamazwe, ngentando yeningi, limayelana namandla kubantu. (Yebo, ngiyabona ukuthi lokho kwakuzwakala kuyisilima kanjani. Bhekana nakho.)

Lokhu kusho ukuthi esikhundleni sokuthi ukuphehlwa kukagesi kubekwe endaweni eyodwa phakathi kwezinsiza, ugesi omningi uzoqala ukuphehlwa lapho osetshenziswa khona: ekhaya. Ngokuzayo, i-solar izovumela abantu ukuthi bazikhiqizele ugesi wabo ngezindleko eziphansi kunokuthola lowo gesi ezinsizeni zabo zasendaweni. Eqinisweni, lokhu sekuvele kwenzeka.

E-Queensland, e-Australia, amanani kagesi ehle acishe abe nguziro ngoJulayi ka-2014. Ngokuvamile, amanani asukela ku-$40-$50 ngehora le-megawatt ngalinye, ngakho kwenzekani?

Kwenzeke ilanga. I-solar ephahleni, ukuba ncamashi. Izakhiwo ezingu-350,000 eQueensland zinamaphaneli elanga ophahleni, ndawonye akhiqiza ugesi ongu-1,100 Megawatts.

Khonamanjalo, okufanayo kuyenzeka ezifundeni ezinkulu zaseYurophu (eJalimane, eSpain, nasePortugal, ikakhulukazi), lapho izinga le-solar lendawo yokuhlala lifinyelele "i-grid parity" (izindleko ezifanayo) ngezintengo zikagesi ezijwayelekile zokuhlala ezinikwa amandla yizinsiza zendabuko. IFrance yaze yashaya umthetho ukuthi zonke izakhiwo ezintsha ezindaweni zentengiso zakhiwe ngophahla lwezitshalo noma lwelanga. Kwazi bani, mhlawumbe umthetho ofanayo ngolunye usuku uyobona amafasitela azo zonke izakhiwo nezakhiwo eziphakeme eshintshwa amaphaneli elanga akhanyayo—yebo, amafasitela panel solar!

Kodwa ngisho nangemva kwakho konke lokhu, amandla elanga aseyingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yalokhu kuguquguquka.

Amabhethri, hhayi nje emoto yakho yokudlala

Njengoba nje amaphaneli elanga athole ukuvuselelwa ekuthuthukisweni nasekutshaleni imali ngezinga elibanzi, kanjalo namabhethri. Izinhlobonhlobo zezinto ezintsha (isb. one, ezimbili, ezintathu) beza ku-inthanethi ukuze bazenze zishibhile, zibe zincane, zivumelane nemvelo, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, zibavumele ukuthi bagcine amandla amakhulu isikhathi eside. Isizathu salokhu kutshalwa kwezimali kwe-R&D sisobala: amabhethri asiza ukugcina iqoqo lamandla elanga ukuze lisetshenziswe lapho ilanga lingashisi.

Eqinisweni, kungenzeka ukuthi uzwile ngo-Tesla wenza i-splash enkulu muva nje lapho bekhipha isitatimende I-Tesla Powerwall, ibhethri lasendlini elithengekayo elingagcina kufika kumahora angu-10-kilowatt wamandla. Amabhethri afana nalawa avumela imindeni inketho yokuphuma ngokuphelele kugridi (uma kufanele futhi itshale imali ku-solar ophahleni) noma ivele ibanike amandla ayisipele ngesikhathi sokucisha kwegridi.

Ezinye izinzuzo zebhethri zomuzi wansuku zonke zihlanganisa ibhili yamandla ephansi kakhulu kuleyo mizi ekhethe ukuhlala ixhumekile kugridi yamandla yasendaweni, ikakhulukazi leyo enamanani entengo kagesi aguqukayo. Lokho kungenxa yokuthi ungakwazi ukulungisa ukusebenzisa kwakho amandla ukuze uqoqe futhi ugcine amandla phakathi nosuku lapho amanani kagesi ephansi, bese uphuma kugridi ngokukhipha amandla asendlini ebhethrini lakho ebusuku lapho amanani kagesi enyuka. Ukwenza lokhu futhi kwenza ikhaya lakho libe luhlaza kangako ngoba ukunciphisa amandla akho ebusuku kususa amandla avame ukukhiqizwa izinto zokubasa ezingcolile, njengamalahle.

Kodwa amabhethri ngeke nje abe isiguquli game for umninikhaya isilinganiso; amabhizinisi amakhulu kanye nezinsiza nazo seziqala ukufaka amabhethri awosayizi wezimboni. Eqinisweni, bamele amaphesenti angu-90 akho konke ukufakwa kwebhethri. Isizathu sabo sokusebenzisa amabhethri ngokuyinhloko siyafana nomnikazi wendlu ojwayelekile: kubavumela ukuthi baqoqe amandla emithonjeni evuselelekayo efana nelanga, umoya, kanye ne-tidal, bese bekhulula lawo mandla kusihlwa, ukuthuthukisa ukuthembeka kwegridi yamandla kule nqubo.

Yilapho sifika engxenyeni yesithathu yoguquko lwethu lwamandla.

Ukukhula kwe-inthanethi ye-Energy

Kukhona le mpikiswano elokhu iqhutshwa abaphikisi bamandla avuselelekayo abathi njengoba izinto ezivuselelekayo (ikakhulukazi ilanga) zingakwazi ukukhiqiza amandla 24/7, azikwazi ukwethembeka ngokutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu. Kungakho sidinga imithombo yamandla “egcwele” evamile njengamalahle, igesi, noma i-nuclear lapho ilanga lingashizi.

Nokho, labo chwepheshe abafanayo kanye nezazi zezombangazwe abahluleka ukukusho ukuthi amalahle, igesi, noma izikhungo zenuzi ziyavaleka ngaso sonke isikhathi ngenxa yezingxenye ezinephutha noma ukulungiswa okuhleliwe. Kodwa lapho benza, abacimi ngempela izibani emadolobheni abawasebenzelayo. Sinento ebizwa nge-national energy grid. Uma isitshalo esisodwa sicima, amandla avela esitshalweni esingumakhelwane aqala ukuntenga ngokushesha, asekele izidingo zikagesi zedolobha.

Ngokuthuthukiswa okuthile okuncane, leyo grid iyona into evuselelekayo ezosetshenziswa ukuze kuthi lapho ilanga lingashi noma umoya ungashayi esifundeni esisodwa, ukulahleka kwamandla kunganxeshezelwa kwezinye izifunda lapho okuvuselelekayo kukhiqiza ugesi. Futhi ngokusebenzisa amabhethri osayizi wezimboni okukhulunywe ngawo ngenhla, singakwazi ukugcina inani elikhulu lamandla avuselelekayo phakathi nosuku ukuze akhishwe kusihlwa. Lawa maphuzu amabili asho ukuthi umoya nelanga zingahlinzeka ngamanani athembekile wamandla ngokuhambisana nemithombo yamandla eyisisekelo eyisisekelo.

Le nethiwekhi entsha yokuhweba ngezikali zasekhaya nezimboni zamandla avuselelekayo izokwakha “i-inthanethi yamandla” yesikhathi esizayo—uhlelo oluguquguqukayo noluzilawulayo (njenge-inthanethi ngokwayo) oluvikeleke ezinhlekeleleni eziningi zemvelo nokuhlasela kwamaphekula, kuyilapho futhi lungalawuleki. ngumuntu oyedwa.

Ekupheleni kosuku, amandla avuselelekayo azokwenzeka, kodwa lokho akusho ukuthi izithakazelo ezinikezwayo ngeke zehle ngaphandle kokulwa.

I-Solar idla ukudla kwasemini kwezinsiza

Okuhlekisayo ngokwanele, ngisho noma ukushisa amalahle ogesi bekumahhala (okuyinto evamile e-Australia, enye yezinkampani zamalahle ezinkulu kakhulu emhlabeni), kusabiza imali ukunakekela nokusebenza kwesikhungo sikagesi, bese kuthuthwa ugesi waso ngaphezu kwamakhulu amakhilomitha izintambo zikagesi ukufinyelela ekhaya lakho. Yonke leyo ngqalasizinda yenza ingxenye enkulu yesikweletu sakho sikagesi. Futhi yingakho abantu abaningi baseQueensland ofunde ngabo ngenhla bakhethe ukuzibekela eceleni lezo zindleko ngokuzikhiqizela ugesi wabo emakhaya—kungcono nje inketho eshibhile.

Njengoba le nzuzo yezindleko zelanga ishesha ukuya ezindaweni ezingaphansi kwedolobha nelasemadolobheni emhlabeni jikelele, abantu abaningi bazokhetha ukuphuma kumagridi abo asendaweni ngokwengxenye noma ngokugcwele. Lokho kusho ukuthi izindleko zokunakekela ingqalasizinda yezinsiza ezikhona zizothwalwa abantu abambalwa nabambalwa, okungase kukhuphule izikweletu zikagesi zanyanga zonke nokudala isikhuthazo sezimali esikhulu nakakhulu “sokutholwa kwe-solar sekwephuzile” ukuze ekugcineni batshale imali yelanga. Lesi yisimo sokufa esizayo esigcina izinkampani zezinsizakusebenza ebusuku.

Ukubuka lesi sitimela sezimpahla sishaja indlela yazo, ezinye zezinkampani ezibuyela emuva zikhethe ukulwa nalo mkhuba kuze kube sekugcineni okuchitha igazi. Baye banxusa ukuthi bashintshe noma baqede izinqubomgomo “zemitha yensalela” ezivumela abanikazi bezindlu ukuthi bathengise amandla elanga engeziwe babuyele kugridi. Abanye basebenzela ukuthola abenzi bomthetho gunyaza izinkokhelo ezingeziwe ekufakweni kwe-solar, kuyilapho abanye besasebenza ukumisa noma ukunciphisa izidingo zamandla avuselelekayo kanye nokusebenza kahle bagunyazwe ukuhlangana.

Ngokuyisisekelo, izinkampani zezinsiza zizama ukuthola ohulumeni ukuthi baxhase ukusebenza kwazo futhi, kwezinye izimo, bashaye umthetho wokubusa kwabo phezu kwamanethiwekhi wamandla endawo. Lokho akuwona neze ubunxiwankulu. Futhi ohulumeni akufanele babe sebhizinisini lokuvikela izimboni kubuchwepheshe obusha obuphazamisayo nobusezingeni eliphezulu (okungukuthi, i-solar nezinye izinto ezivuselelekayo) ezinamandla okuzishintsha (futhi kusizakale umphakathi ukuthi uqalise).

Kodwa nakuba izindodla zemali yokunxenxa zisetshenziswa ukuzama ukunciphisa ukuthuthuka kwe-solar nezinye izinto ezivuselelekayo, imigqa yesikhathi eside imisiwe: okuvuselelekayo kwelanga kanye nokuvuselelwa kusethelwe ukudla isidlo sasemini sezinsiza. Yingakho izinkampani ezibheka phambili zithatha indlela ehlukile.

Izinsiza zomhlaba wakudala zisiza ukuhola uhlelo lwamandla omhlaba omusha

Nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukuthi abantu abaningi bazokhipha i-grid ngokuphelele-ngubani owaziyo, kwenzekani lapho indodana yakho yesikhathi esizayo ishayela i-Tesla yakho ngokudakwa iyifake ebhethrini lasendlini egaraji lakho-abantu abaningi BAZOQALA ukusebenzisa amagridi abo endawo kancane kancane eminyakeni eyishumi edlule. .

Ngokubhala odongeni, izinsiza ezimbalwa zinqume ukuba ngabaholi esikhathini esizayo inethiwekhi yamandla evuselelekayo nesatshalaliswa. Isibonelo, izinsiza eziningi zaseYurophu zitshala ingxenye yenzuzo yazo yamanje kwingqalasizinda yamandla avuselelekayo, njengelanga, umoya, kanye namagagasi. Lezi zinsiza sezizuze kakade etshalweni lwazo. Izinto ezivuselelekayo ezisabalalisiwe zisize ukwehlisa ubunzima kumagridi kagesi phakathi nezinsuku ezishisayo zasehlobo lapho isidingo sasiphezulu. Okuvuselelekayo futhi kunciphisa isidingo sezinsiza zokutshala amandla ezimbonini zamandla aphakathi nendawo ezintsha nezimba eqolo kanye nezintambo zokudlulisela.

Ezinye izinkampani ezisizayo zibheke phambili ekuguqukeni ekubeni ngabahlinzeki bamandla kuphela ziye ekubeni ngabahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamandla. I-SolarCity, isiqalisi esiklama, sixhase ngezimali, futhi sifake amasistimu kagesi welanga, isiqalile shintshela kumodeli esekwe kusevisi lapho bengabanikazi, banakekele, futhi basebenzise amabhethri asekhaya abantu.

Kulolu hlelo, amakhasimende akhokha imali yanyanga zonke ukuze afakwe amaphaneli elanga nebhethri lendlu endlini yawo—okungenzeka axhunywe kugridi yamandla omphakathi wendawo (ama-microgrid)—bese ephathwa amandla awo asekhaya yinsiza. Amakhasimende azokhokhela kuphela amandla awasebenzisayo, futhi abasebenzisi bamandla aphansi bazobona izikweletu zabo zamandla zincishiswa. Bangase benze inzuzo ngokusebenzisa amandla engeziwe akhiqizwa yimizi yabo ukuze banikeze amandla omakhelwane babo abalambele kakhulu amandla.

Lokho okushiwo amandla amahhala, angenamkhawulo, ahlanzekile ngempela

Ngo-2050, ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba kuyodingeka ishintshe ngokuphelele igridi yayo yamandla eguga kanye nezitshalo zamandla. Ukushintsha le ngqalasizinda ngezinto ezishibhile, ezihlanzekile, nezikhulisa amandla kabusha kwenza umqondo wezezimali. Ngisho noma ukufaka esikhundleni sale ngqalasizinda ngezinto ezivuselelekayo kubiza okufanayo nokufaka imithombo yamandla evamile, okuvuselelekayo kusawina. Cabanga ngalokhu: ngokungafani nemithombo yamandla evamile, ephakathi nendawo, izinto ezivuselelekayo ezisabalalisiwe aziwuthwali umthwalo ofanayo ongemuhle njengezinsongo zokuphepha kwezwe kusukela ekuhlaselweni kwamaphekula, ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli ongcolile, izindleko eziphezulu zezimali, isimo sezulu esibi kanye nemiphumela yezempilo, nokuba sengozini enkulumweni enkulu. ukucima kukagesi

Ukutshalwa kwezimali ekusebenzeni kahle kwamandla kanye nasezintweni ezivuselelekayo kungasusa izimboni emalahleni nasemafutheni, konge ohulumeni izigidigidi zamaRandi, kukhulise umnotho ngemisebenzi emisha ekufakweni kwegridi evuselelekayo nehlakaniphile, futhi kunciphise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yethu cishe ngamaphesenti angama-80.

Njengoba singena kule nkathi entsha yamandla, umbuzo okufanele siwubuze uthi: Linjani ngempela izwe elinamandla angenamkhawulo? Kuzowuthinta kanjani umnotho wethu? Isiko lethu? Indlela yethu yokuphila? Impendulo ithi: ngaphezu kwalokho okucabangayo.

Sizohlola ukuthi lo mhlaba omusha uzobukeka kanjani ekupheleni kochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lamandla, kodwa okokuqala, sidinga ukusho ezinye izinhlobo zamandla avuselelekayo nangavuseleleki ezingase zibe namandla ikusasa lethu. Okulandelayo: Okuvuselelekayo uma kuqhathaniswa ne-Thorium kanye ne-Fusion Energy Wildcards: Ikusasa Lamandla P5.