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ʻO nā mahiʻai akamai a me ke kūpaʻa: P4 ka wā e hiki mai ana

ʻO David Tal, mea hoʻopuka, Futurist
@KekahaNaipo
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Poalua, 09/15/2020 - 08:13

Ma nā ʻano he nui, ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī a me ka paʻakikī o nā mahiʻai o kēia lā ma mua o nā makahiki i hala. Pēlā nō, ʻoi aku ka naʻauao a me ka ʻike o ka poʻe mahiʻai o kēia wā ma mua o ka poʻe o ka wā kahiko.

He 12 a 18 mau hola maʻamau no ka poʻe mahiʻai i kēia mau lā, e pili ana i nā hana koʻikoʻi loa, me ka nānā mau ʻana i nā māla mahiʻai a me nā holoholona; mālama mau i nā lako mahiʻai a me nā mīkini; nā hola o ka hana ʻana i nā mea hana a me nā mīkini; ka mālama ʻana i nā lima mahiʻai (nā limahana hana a me ka ʻohana); nā hālāwai me nā loea mahiʻai like ʻole a me nā kūkākūkā; ka nānā 'ana i nā kumukū'ai makeke a me ke kau 'ana i nā kauoha me nā mea hānai, nā hua, nā mea ho'omomona a me nā wahie; nā kelepona kūʻai aku me nā mea kūʻai hua a holoholona; a laila e hoʻolālā i ka lā aʻe i ka wā e hoʻomaha ai. E hoʻomanaʻo he papa inoa maʻalahi kēia; e nele ana paha i nā hana kūikawā e pili ana i nā ʻano mea kanu a me nā holoholona a kēlā me kēia mahiʻai.

ʻO ka mokuʻāina o ka poʻe mahiʻai i kēia lā ka hopena pololei o nā ikaika mākeke e hoʻokau nui ana i ka ʻoihana mahiʻai e lilo i mea waiwai. ʻIke ʻoe, i ka piʻi ʻana o ka heluna kanaka o ka honua i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua piʻi pū ka makemake i ka meaʻai me ia. ʻO kēia ulu ʻana i hoʻomaka i ka hana ʻana i nā ʻano mea kanu, mālama holoholona, a me nā mīkini mahiʻai ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī, a me ka pipiʻi nui. ʻO kēia mau mea hou, ʻoiai e ʻae ana i ka poʻe mahiʻai e hoʻohua i nā meaʻai ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka wā ma mua o ka mōʻaukala, ua hoʻohuli pū i ka nui o lākou i loko o ka ʻaiʻē koʻikoʻi e hiki ai ke hoʻonui i nā mea hou aʻe.

ʻAe, ʻaʻole maʻalahi ka lilo ʻana i mea mahiʻai hou. ʻAʻole pono lākou e lilo i poʻe akamai i ka mahiʻai, akā e hoʻomau i nā ʻano hou loa o ka ʻenehana, ʻoihana, a me ke kālā no ka noho ʻana. ʻO ka mea mahiʻai o kēia wā ʻo ia wale nō ka limahana akamai loa a maʻalahi i waena o nā ʻoihana āpau ma waho. ʻO ka pilikia, ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ka lilo ʻana i mea mahiʻai i ka wā e hiki mai ana.

Mai kā mākou kūkākūkā mua ma kēia Future of Food series, ʻike mākou ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia ka heluna kanaka o ka honua e hoʻonui ʻia e ʻelua piliona kānaka ʻē aʻe i ka makahiki 2040, ʻoiai ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau e hoʻemi i ka nui o ka ʻāina i loaʻa e ulu ai ka meaʻai. ʻO kēia ke ʻano (yup, manaʻo ʻoe) e kū hou ana ka poʻe mahiʻai i kahi mākeke mākeke nui e lilo i ʻoi aku ka huahua. E kamaʻilio mākou e pili ana i ka hopena pōʻino e loaʻa i ka ʻohana maʻamau i ka wā koke, akā e hoʻomaka kākou me nā mea pāʻani hou a ka poʻe mahiʻai e pāʻani mua ai!

ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ka māla akamai

Pono nā mahiʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana e lilo i mau mīkini huahana, a ʻo ka ʻenehana e hiki ai i ka poʻe mahiʻai ke hoʻokō pono i kēlā me ka nānā ʻana a me ke ana ʻana i nā mea āpau. E hoʻomaka kākou me ka Internet o Mau—he pūnaewele o nā mea ʻike i hoʻopili ʻia i kēlā me kēia ʻāpana o nā lako, nā holoholona mahiʻai, a me ka mea hana e nānā mau i ko lākou wahi, hana, a me nā hana (a i ʻole ke olakino inā pili i nā holoholona a me nā limahana). Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka ʻikepili i hōʻiliʻili ʻia e ke kikowaena kauoha waena o ka mahiʻai e hoʻopololei i ka neʻe a me nā hana i hana ʻia e kēlā me kēia mea pili.

ʻO ka mea nui, e hoʻopili ʻia kēia Internet of Things i hoʻopili ʻia i ka mahiʻai i loko o ke ao, kahi e hiki ai ke kaʻana like i ka ʻikepili me nā ʻano lawelawe kelepona pili i ka mahiʻai a me nā ʻoihana kūkākūkā. Ma ka hopena o nā lawelawe, hiki i kēia ʻenehana ke komo i nā polokalamu kelepona holomua e hāʻawi i ka poʻe mahiʻai i ka ʻikepili manawa maoli e pili ana i ka huahana o kā lākou mahiʻai a me ka moʻolelo o kēlā me kēia hana a lākou e hana ai i ka lā, e kōkua ana iā lākou e mālama i kahi moʻolelo pololei e hoʻolālā i ka hana o ka lā aʻe. Eia hou, hiki iā ia ke hoʻokomo i kahi polokalamu e pili ana me ka ʻikepili o ka wā e hōʻike i nā manawa kūpono e kanu i ka ʻāina mahiʻai, neʻe i nā holoholona i loko o ka hale, a i ʻole e ʻohi i nā mea kanu.

Ma ka hopena kūkākūkā, hiki i nā ʻoihana loea ke kōkua i nā mahiʻai nui e kālailai i ka ʻikepili i hōʻiliʻili ʻia e hana i nā ʻike kiʻekiʻe. Hiki i kēia kōkua ke hoʻokomo i ka nānā ʻana i ke kūlana olakino manawa maoli o kēlā me kēia holoholona mahiʻai a me ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana i nā mea hānai kaʻa o ka mahiʻai e hāʻawi i ka hui ʻai meaʻai kūpono e mālama i kēia mau holoholona i ka hauʻoli, olakino a huahua. ʻO ka mea hou aʻe, hiki i nā ʻoihana ke hoʻoholo i ka hoʻokumu ʻana o ka lepo o ka mahiʻai mai ka ʻikepili a laila hōʻike i nā mea kanu superfood a me synthetic biology (synbio) e kanu, e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai maikaʻi loa i wānana ʻia ma nā mākeke. ʻO ka ʻoi loa, hiki ke koho ʻia nā koho no ka wehe ʻana i ke ʻano kanaka mai kā lākou loiloi, ma ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā lima mahiʻai me nā ʻano ʻokoʻa o ka automation—ʻo ia hoʻi nā robots.

He pūʻali o nā lopako manamana lima ʻōmaʻomaʻo

ʻOiai ua ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o nā ʻoihana i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua lohi ka mahiʻai i ka mālama ʻana i kēia ʻano. ʻO kēia kekahi ma muli o ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe e pili ana me ka automation a me ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ua lawa ke kumukūʻai o nā mahiʻai me ka ʻole o kēia ʻenehana highfalutin. Akā, ʻoiai e ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o kēia ʻenehana a me ka mīkini hana kiʻekiʻe i ka wā e hiki mai ana, a ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka nui o ke kālā hoʻopukapuka e kahe ana i ka ʻoihana mahiʻai (no ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka pōʻai ʻai o ka honua ma muli o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ke aniau a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka heluna kanaka), ʻike ka hapa nui o ka poʻe mahiʻai i nā manawa hou e hana ai. .

Ma waena o nā mea pāʻani hou e mālama ai ka poʻe mahiʻai i kā lākou mahiʻai me nā drones mahiʻai kūikawā. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, hiki i nā mahiʻai o ka lā ʻapōpō ke ʻike aku i nā kakini (a i ʻole nā hui) o kēia mau drones e lele ana a puni ko lākou mau waiwai i kēlā me kēia manawa, e hana ana i nā hana ākea, e like me: ka nānā ʻana i ka hoʻokumu ʻana i ka lepo, ke olakino o nā mea kanu, a me nā ʻōnaehana wai; ka waiho ʻana i nā mea kanu hou, nā pesticides a me nā herbicides ma nā wahi pilikia i ʻike mua ʻia; ma ke ano he ilio kahuhipa e alakai ana i na holoholona hele hewa i ka mahiai; ka hoʻoweliweli ʻana a i ʻole ke pana ʻana i nā ʻano holoholona pōloli i ka hua; a me ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka palekana ma o ka nānā ʻana i ka lewa mau.

ʻO kekahi mea hoihoi, ʻo nā trak o ka lā ʻapōpō, he mau PhD ikaika paha ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā traktor kahiko a hilinaʻi o kēia mau lā. ʻO kēia mau mea akamai-traktors—i hoʻopili ʻia i ke kikowaena kauoha waena o ka mahiʻai—e ʻokoʻa ʻo ia i nā mahina ʻai o ka mahiʻai e palau pono i ka lepo, kanu i nā ʻanoʻano, pīpī i nā mea kanu, a ma hope e ʻohi ai i nā mea kanu.

Hiki i nā ʻano robots liʻiliʻi ʻē aʻe ke hoʻopiha i kēia mau mahiʻai, me ka lawe ʻana i nā hana maʻamau e hana ʻia e nā limahana mahiʻai o ka wā, e like me ka ʻohi ʻana i nā hua mai nā kumulāʻau a i ʻole nā kumu waina. Oddly enough, ike kakou nalo lopako i ka wā e hiki mai ana!

ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka mahiʻai ʻohana

ʻOiai ʻo kēia mau mea hou a pau he mea kupanaha, he aha kā mākou e ʻōlelo ai e pili ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka poʻe mahiʻai maʻamau, ʻoi aku ka poʻe nona nā mahiʻai ʻohana? E hiki anei i kēia mau mahiʻai—i hala aku i nā hanauna—e noho paʻa ma ke ʻano he 'mahina ʻohana'? A i ʻole e nalowale lākou i kahi nalu o nā kūʻai kūʻai ʻoihana?

E like me ka mea i hōʻike mua ʻia, e hōʻike ana nā makahiki e hiki mai ana i kahi ʻano ʻeke hui ʻia no ka mea mahiʻai maʻamau. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai meaʻai, ʻo ia hoʻi, hiki i ka poʻe mahiʻai ke ʻauʻau i ke kālā, akā i ka manawa like, hiki i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kālā no ka holo ʻana i kahi mahiʻai huahua (ma muli o nā kumu aʻoaʻo pipiʻi, nā mīkini, a me nā hua synbio) hiki ke hoʻopau i kēlā mau waiwai. ʻaʻole i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēia lā. ʻO ka mea pōʻino no lākou, hiki ke ʻoi aku ka ʻino; me ka lilo ʻana o ka meaʻai i mea ʻai wela e hoʻokomo ai ma ka hopena o 2030s; hiki i kēia poʻe mahiʻai ke hakakā i nā pono ʻoihana ikaika no ka mālama ʻana i kā lākou mahiʻai.

No laila, ma muli o ka pōʻaiapili i hōʻike ʻia ma luna nei, pono mākou e uhaʻi i ʻekolu ala e hiki ai i ka poʻe mahiʻai ke hele i ka wā e hiki mai ana ke ola i ka honua pōloli meaʻai o ka lā ʻapōpō:

ʻO ka mea mua, ʻo ka poʻe mahiʻai e mālama i ka mana o kā lākou ʻohana mahiʻai, ʻo ia ka poʻe akamai e hoʻololi i kā lākou mau kahawai kālā. No ka laʻana, ma waho o ka hana ʻana i nā meaʻai (nā mea kanu a me nā holoholona), hānai (e hānai i nā holoholona), a i ʻole biofuels, hiki i kēia poʻe mahiʻai—ma muli o ka biology synthetic—hiki nō hoʻi ke ulu i nā mea kanu e hana maoli i nā plastic plastic a i ʻole nā lāʻau lapaʻau. Inā kokoke lākou i kahi kūlanakauhale nui, hiki iā lākou ke hana i kahi hōʻailona kūʻokoʻa a puni kā lākou huahana 'local' e kūʻai aku ma ke kumu kūʻai (e like me ka hana ʻana o kēia ʻohana mahiʻai i kēia mea nui. NPR profile).

Eia hou, me ka hana nui o na mahiai o ka la apopo, hiki i ka mea mahiai hookahi ke hoomalu i ka nui o ka aina. Hāʻawi kēia i ka ʻohana mahiʻai i wahi e hāʻawi ai i nā ʻano lawelawe ʻē aʻe ma ko lākou mau waiwai, e like me nā mālama lā, nā hoʻomoana kauwela, nā moena a me nā ʻaina kakahiaka, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe. hoolimalima) kahi hapa o ko lākou ʻāina e hoʻopuka i ka ikehu hou ma o ka lā, makani a i ʻole biomass, a kūʻai aku ia mau mea i kona kaiāulu a puni.

Akā naʻe, ʻaʻole e lilo nā mea mahiʻai a pau i kēia ʻoihana. E ʻike ka lua o ka hui mahiʻai i ke kākau ʻana ma ka paia a huli kekahi i kekahi e noho lana. ʻO kēia mau mahiʻai (me ke alakaʻi ʻana o nā lobbyists mahiʻai) e hoʻokumu i nā hui mahiʻai nui e hana like me kahi uniona. ʻAʻole pili kēia mau hui i ka ʻona hui ʻana i ka ʻāina, akā loaʻa nā mea āpau i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka mana kūʻai hui e ʻoki i nā uku kaumaha ma nā lawelawe kūkākūkā, nā mīkini, a me nā hua kiʻekiʻe. No laila i ka pōkole, e mālama kēia mau hui i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa a mālama i ka leo o ka mahiʻai e lohe ʻia e nā poʻe kālai'āina, ʻoiai e mālama pū ana i ka mana ulu o Big Agri.

ʻO ka hope, aia nā mea mahiʻai e hoʻoholo e hoʻolei i ke kāwele. ʻO kēia ka mea maʻamau i waena o kēlā mau ʻohana mahiʻai kahi i makemake ʻole ai nā keiki e hoʻomau i ke ola mahiʻai. ʻO ka mea pōmaikaʻi, e kūlou ana kēia mau ʻohana me kahi hua manu pūnana nui ma ke kūʻai ʻana aku i kā lākou mau mahiʻai i nā ʻoihana hoʻokūkū hoʻokūkū, nā kālā pā, nā kālā waiwai nui, a me nā mahiʻai ʻoihana nui. A ma muli o ka nui o nā ʻano i hōʻike ʻia ma luna, a ma nā ʻāpana mua o kēia moʻo Future of Food, ʻo kēia pūʻulu ʻekolu paha ka mea nui loa o lākou a pau. ʻO ka hope loa, hiki i ka mahiʻai ʻohana ke lilo i ʻano mea pōʻino ma ka hopena o 2040s.

ʻO ka piʻiʻana o ka mahiʻai kū

Ma waho aʻe o ka mahiʻai kuʻuna, aia kahi ʻano mahiʻai hou loa e kū mai ana i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana: ʻo ka mahiʻai kūʻokoʻa. ʻAʻole like me ka mahiʻai ʻana mai nā makahiki he 10,000 i hala iho nei, ke hoʻolauna nei ka mahiʻai kūwaho i ka hana o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i kekahi mau mahiʻai ma luna o kekahi. ʻAe, kani ʻia ma laila i ka wā mua, akā hiki i kēia mau mahiʻai ke pāʻani i ke kuleana koʻikoʻi i ka palekana meaʻai o kā mākou ulu nui. E nānā pono kākou iā lākou.

Ua hoʻolaha ʻia nā mahiʻai kū pololei e ka hana a Dickson Despommier a ke kūkulu ʻia nei kekahi a puni ka honua e hoʻāʻo i ka manaʻo. ʻO nā laʻana o nā mahiʻai kūpaʻa e like me kēia: Nuvege ma Kyoto, Iapana; Nā ʻōmaʻomaʻo lani ma Singapore; TerraSphere ma Vancouver, British Columbia; Plantagon ma Linkoping, Suedena; a ʻOhi Vertical ma Jackson, Wyoming.

ʻO ka mahiʻai kūʻokoʻa kūpono e like me kēia: kahi hale kiʻekiʻe kahi i hoʻolaʻa ʻia ai ka hapa nui o nā papahele no ka ulu ʻana i nā mea kanu like ʻole i loko o nā moena i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma luna o kekahi. Hānai ʻia kēia mau moena e nā kukui LED i hana ʻia i ka mea kanu (ʻAe, he mea kēia), ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka wai i hoʻomoʻa ʻia i ka meaʻai i hāʻawi ʻia e nā aeroponics (ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi no nā mea kanu aʻa), hydroponics (maikaʻi loa no nā mea kanu a me nā huaʻai) a i ʻole ka wai hoʻoheheʻe (no ka palaoa). I ka wā e ulu pono ai, hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā moena ma luna o kahi conveyor e ʻohi ʻia a hāʻawi ʻia i nā kikowaena heluna kūloko. ʻO ka hale ponoʻī, ua piha ka mana (ʻo ia ka carbon-neutral) e ka hui pū ʻana o nā puka makani e hōʻiliʻili i ka ikehu lā, nā mea hana hoʻomehana honua, a me nā mea hoʻoheheʻe anaerobic e hiki ke hana hou i ka ʻōpala i ka ikehu (mai ka hale a me ke kaiāulu).

He kani nani. Akā, he aha nā mea maikaʻi maoli o kēia mau mahiʻai kū?

He kakaikahi wale no—o na pomaikai penei: aole holo mahiai; ka hoʻoulu ʻana i nā mea kanu a puni ka makahiki; ʻaʻole nalowale nā hua mai nā hanana ʻino ʻino; hoʻohana i ka 90 pakeneka ka liʻiliʻi o ka wai ma mua o ka mahiʻai maʻamau; ʻaʻole pono nā mea kanu lāʻau no nā pesticides a me nā herbicides; ʻaʻole pono i nā wahie fossil; hoʻoponopono i ka wai hina; hana i nā hana kūloko; hoʻolako i nā hua hou no ka poʻe e noho ana i loko o ke kūlanakauhale; hiki ke hoʻohana i nā waiwai o ke kūlanakauhale i haʻalele ʻia, a hiki ke ulu i nā biofuels a i ʻole nā lāʻau i loaʻa i nā mea kanu. Akā ʻaʻole ʻo ia wale nō!

ʻO ka hoʻopunipuni me kēia mau mahiʻai kūpaʻa, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ulu ʻana e like me ka hiki i loko o kahi liʻiliʻi. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o hoʻokahi ʻeka i loko o kahi mahiʻai kūpaʻa ma mua o 10 mau ʻeka waho o kahi mahiʻai kuʻuna. No ke kōkua ʻana iā ʻoe e mahalo i kēia, Despommier Hui Pūʻia he 300 kapuai kuea wale no o ka hale mahiai i loko o ka hale—e like me ka nui o ke keena studio—no ka hoohua ana i ka ai na ke kanaka hookahi (2,000 calories no ke kanaka, no ka la no ka makahiki). ʻO ia ke ʻano o kahi mahiʻai kū i luna ma kahi o 30 mau moʻolelo kiʻekiʻe i ka nui o hoʻokahi poloka kūlanakauhale hiki ke hānai maʻalahi i 50,000 mau kānaka-ʻo ka heluna kanaka o kahi kūlanakauhale holoʻokoʻa.

Akā hiki ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻia ʻo ka hopena nui loa e hiki i nā mahiʻai kūwaho ke hōʻemi i ka nui o nā ʻāina mahiʻai i hoʻohana ʻia a puni ka honua. E noʻonoʻo inā ua kūkulu ʻia ka nui o kēia mau mahiʻai kū a puni i nā kikowaena kūlanakauhale e hānai i ko lākou heluna kanaka, e hoʻemi ʻia ka nui o ka ʻāina no ka mahiʻai kuʻuna. Hiki ke hoʻihoʻi ʻia kēlā ʻāina mahiʻai pono ʻole i ke ʻano maoli a kōkua paha i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i kā mākou kaiaola pōʻino (ah, moeʻuhane).

ʻO ke ala i mua a me ka hihia no nā mākeke

ʻO ka hōʻuluʻulu ʻana, ʻo ke ʻano kūpono loa no nā makahiki ʻelua e hiki mai ana ʻo ia ka ʻoi aku ka naʻauao o nā mahiʻai kuʻuna; e mālama ʻia e nā lopako ma mua o nā kānaka, a nona nā ʻohana mahiʻai liʻiliʻi a liʻiliʻi. Akā, ʻoiai e makaʻu ana ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau i nā makahiki 2040, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā mahiʻai kūpaʻa palekana a ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi e pani i kēia mau mahiʻai akamai, e lawe ana i ka hana o ka hānai ʻana i kā mākou heluna nui e hiki mai ana.

ʻO ka hope, makemake au e haʻi aku i kahi ʻaoʻao koʻikoʻi ma mua o ko mākou neʻe ʻana i ka hope o ka Future of Food series hope: ʻo ka hapa nui o nā pilikia ʻai i kēia lā (a me ka lā ʻapōpō) ʻaʻohe mea pili me mākou ʻaʻole lawa ka ʻai. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ka nui o nā ʻāpana o ʻApelika a me India e loaʻa ana i nā manawa pōloli makahiki, ʻoiai ʻo ka US e pili ana i kahi maʻi obesity Cheeto-fueled e ʻōlelo nui. ʻO ka ʻōlelo maʻalahi, ʻaʻole ia he pilikia ko mākou ulu ʻana i ka meaʻai, akā he pilikia hāʻawi meaʻai.

No ka laʻana ma nā ʻāina e ulu nei, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kumu waiwai a me ka hiki ke mahiʻai, akā ʻaʻole ka nele o nā ʻōnaehana ma ke ʻano o nā alanui, ka mālama ʻana i kēia manawa, a me nā lawelawe kālepa, a me nā mākeke kokoke. Ma muli o kēia, nui ka poʻe mahiʻai ma kēia mau ʻāina e ulu wale i ka meaʻai no lākou iho, no ka mea, ʻaʻohe kumu o ka loaʻa ʻana o ke koena inā e popopo lākou no ka nele o nā hale mālama kūpono, nā alanui e hoʻouna koke i nā mea kanu i nā mea kūʻai aku, a me nā mākeke e kūʻai aku i nā mea kanu. . (Hiki iā ʻoe ke heluhelu i kahi kākau nui e pili ana i kēia wahi ma ka Verge.)

ʻAe, e nā kāne, ua hana ʻoukou i kēia mamao. ʻO kēia ka manawa hope e nānā i ke ʻano o kāu ʻai i ka honua wacky o ka lā ʻapōpō. ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka meaʻai P5.