Offensive government hacking: A new kind of digital warfare

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 15, 2023

Insight summary

Governments are increasingly employing offensive hacking measures to counter cybercrimes like malware distribution and exploitation of vulnerabilities. While effective in combating threats such as terrorism, these strategies raise ethical and legal concerns, risking civil liberties and individual privacy. Economic implications include eroding digital trust and increased business security costs, along with an emerging 'cyber arms race' that could stimulate job growth in specialized sectors but exacerbate international tensions. This shift towards offensive cyber tactics reveals a complex landscape, balancing national security needs against potential infringements on civil liberties, economic impacts, and diplomatic relations.

Offensive government hacking context

Attempts to weaken encryption, whether through policy, legislation, or informal means, potentially compromise the security of technological devices for all users. Government agents can copy, delete, or damage data and, in extreme cases, create and distribute malware to investigate potential cybercrimes. These tactics have been seen globally, leading to decreased security. 

Various forms of these government-led security breaches include state-sponsored malware, typically used by authoritarian states to suppress dissent, stockpiling or exploiting vulnerabilities for investigative or offensive purposes, promoting crypto backdoors to undermine encryption, and malicious hacking. While these strategies may sometimes serve law enforcement and intelligence agencies' objectives, they often inadvertently jeopardize the security and privacy of innocent users. 

Governments have been shifting to more offensive strategies to combat cybercrimes. Singapore's Defense Ministry is actively recruiting ethical hackers and cybersecurity professionals to identify critical weaknesses in its government and infrastructure networks. In the US, domestic law enforcement agencies have been actively infiltrating digital domains, such as reclaiming cryptocurrencies for ransomware victims, with the 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack being a notable example.

Meanwhile, in response to a 2022 Medibank data breach that revealed the personal information of millions, the Australian government has declared a proactive stance against cybercriminals. The Minister for Cyber Security announced the formation of a task force with the mandate to "hack the hackers." 

Disruptive impact

Offensive government hacking can serve as a powerful tool in maintaining national security. By infiltrating and disrupting malicious networks, governments can prevent or mitigate threats, such as those related to terrorism or organized crime. In an increasingly interconnected world, such strategies can become integral components of a country's defense mechanisms, which are increasingly shifting online.

However, offensive hacking also poses significant risks to civil liberties and personal privacy. State-sponsored hacking efforts can extend beyond their original targets, inadvertently impacting third parties. Furthermore, there's a risk that these capabilities could be abused, leading to unwarranted surveillance and intrusion into the lives of ordinary citizens. As a result, it's crucial to establish comprehensive legal and ethical frameworks to govern these activities, ensuring that they're conducted responsibly, transparently, and subject to appropriate oversight.

Finally, offensive government hacking has economic implications. The discovery of government-sponsored hacking can undermine trust in digital infrastructure and services. If consumers or businesses lose faith in the security of their data, it could impact the growth and innovation of the digital economy. State-backed hacking can also lead to an arms race in cyber capabilities, with nations investing heavily in offensive and defensive cyber technologies. This trend could stimulate job growth in AI and machine learning, ethical hacking, and cybersecurity encryption solutions.

Implications of offensive government hacking 

Wider implications of offensive government hacking  may include: 

• Governments designating specific agencies to combat cybercrimes and develop strategies to protect essential infrastructures.
• The rise of a "surveillance state" atmosphere, making citizens feel unsafe and causing widespread governmental mistrust.
• Businesses bearing increased costs associated with upgraded security measures to protect their data from not only criminals but also government intrusion. 
• Diplomatic tensions if these actions could be perceived as an act of aggression, leading to potential strains in international relationships.
• An escalating 'cyber arms race' between countries and even between government agencies and criminal entities, leading to a proliferation of more advanced and potentially destructive cyber weapons.
• Normalization of the hacking culture in society, with long-term implications for societal attitudes towards privacy, security, and what is considered legal digital activities.
• Hacking powers being abused for political gains. Unchecked, these tactics could be used to suppress dissent, control information, or manipulate public opinion, which could have long-term implications for the state of democracy in a country.

Questions to consider

• What of your government's offensive hacks are you aware of? 
• How else might these state-sponsored hacking activities affect ordinary citizens?