Izintshisekelo ze-China ezinesivinini esikhulu: Ukuvula indlela yochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke olugxile e-China

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• Kwangathi 6, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Amaphrojekthi kaloliwe wesivinini esikhulu waseShayina, asekelwa kakhulu umbuso, abumba kabusha izimakethe zomhlaba nezwe, aqondisa izinzuzo zomnotho ezifundeni ezithile nababambiqhaza, futhi okungenzeka enze amazwe abambe iqhaza ancike kakhulu ekusekelweni kweShayina. I-Belt and Road Initiative (i-BRI) iwumgogodla waleli su, ithuthukisa ithonya le-geoeconomic yase-China ngoxhumano lwesitimela oluqinisiwe. Kodwa-ke, le phrojekthi yokufisa ibangele ukuphikisa kwabanye abadlali bomhlaba abafana ne-US kanye ne-EU, abacabangela izinhlelo zabo ze-supply chain ukuze balondoloze ibhalansi emandleni omnotho womhlaba.

Umongo wase-China wezithakazelo zesivinini esikhulu

Phakathi kuka-2008 no-2019, i-China yafaka amathrekhi wesitimela alinganiselwa kumakhilomitha angu-5,464—ibanga elicishe libe ibanga elixhumanisa i-New York ne-London—minyaka yonke. Ujantshi wesitimela esinesivinini esiphezulu wenze cishe ingxenye yalo mzila osanda kumiswa, kanti uhulumeni waseShayina ufuna ukusebenzisa lezi zimpahla zikaloliwe njengengxenye yesu elibanzi lomnotho wezwe. I-Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), eyayaziwa nge-One Belt, One Road, yamukelwa nguhulumeni wase-China ngo-2013 njengengxenye yesu lezwe lokuthuthukisa ingqalasizinda yomhlaba wonke futhi ihlose ukuthuthukisa ubudlelwano baseChina kwezomnotho, amasiko nezepolitiki nabalingani emhlabeni jikelele. .

Ngonyaka wezi-2020, i-BRI yahlanganisa amazwe ayi-138 futhi yayibiza isamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya we-USD $29 trillion futhi yaxhumana nabantu abacishe babe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu. I-BRI iqinisa ukuxhumana kwezitimela phakathi kweShayina nomakhelwane bayo, ngalokho ithuthukisa ithonya le-Beijing kwezomnotho kanye nokuqinisa umnotho wangaphakathi waseShayina ngokufaka umnotho wesifunda emnothweni obanzi waseShayina. 

Izwe selibheke ukwakhiwa kwezitimela ukuze kungene izimakethe ezintsha. I-China Railway Construction Corporation isayine izinkontileka zokwakha izitimela ezingama-21 phakathi kuka-2013 no-2019 ngezindleko zama-USD ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-19.3, okubalelwa cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yengqikithi yomhlaba wonke. Ngokufanayo, i-China Railway Engineering Corporation ithole izinkontileka eziyi-19 ngesikhathi esifanayo ngesamba esingu-USD $12.9 billion, okuhlanganisa ingxenye eyodwa kwezinhlanu yazo zonke izivumelwano. I-BRI kubikwa ukuthi isizuzise ezinye izifundazwe zasemakhaya kakhulu zaseChina njengoba lezi zinkampani ezihlinzeka ngempahla manje sezihamba kulezi zifunda futhi zidale izinkulungwane zemisebenzi kubasebenzi baseChina.

Kodwa-ke, abanye abagxeki baphakamise ukuthi amaphrojekthi kaloliwe agqugquzelwa uhulumeni waseChina abeka amazwe abamba izikweletu ngaphansi kwenani elikhulu lezikweletu, okungenzeka awenze ancike eChina ngokwezimali. 

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Amaphrojekthi kaloliwe waseShayina anesivinini esiphezulu afaka ukusekelwa okukhulu kombuso ezinkampanini zikaloliwe zaseShayina, okungase kuholele ekutheni amanethiwekhi kaloliwe esifunda enzelwe ukusizakala imakethe yaseChina. Le ntuthuko ingase ibe nomthelela ezinkampanini zasendaweni zikaloliwe ukuthi zivale, zitholwe, noma zijike ukuze zifeze izintshisekelo zabasebenzi bezitimela baseShayina. Ngakho-ke, amazwe abamba iqhaza angase azithole ethembela ngokwandayo ekusekelweni kwezimali kwaseShayina nengqalasizinda, okungase kuguqule kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwezimakethe zomhlaba nezwe.

Ukusabela kuthonya elikhulayo lase-China nge-Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), abanye abadlali ababalulekile njenge-US ne-EU bacabanga ukwethula izinhlelo zabo ze-supply chain. Lokhu kuphikisa kuhlose ukunciphisa umthelela we-BRI emnothweni wesifunda kanye nokugcina ukulingana emandleni omnotho womhlaba. Ngokufaka izimali ezengeziwe ezimbonini zabo zezitimela, lezi zifunda azigcini nje ngokukhuthaza ukwakhiwa kwamathuba emisebenzi emkhakheni wezitimela kodwa nasezimbonini ezisizayo ezizozuza ekuthuthukisweni kwezitimela. 

Uma sibheka phambili, kubalulekile ukubheka imithelela ebanzi yalezi ntuthuko esimweni somnotho womhlaba. Imiklamo yesitimela enesivinini esikhulu ayikona nje ezokuthutha; zimayelana nomthelela wezomnotho, amasu epolitiki yezwe, kanye nokubunjwa kabusha kobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe. Izinkampani emhlabeni jikelele kungase kudingeke ukuthi zilungise kabusha amasu azo ukuze zizulazule esimweni esithuthukayo, okungenzeka zakhe imifelandawonye emisha nobudlelwano. Ohulumeni kungase kudingeke basebenze ngokuzikhandla ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi izinqubomgomo zabo zikhuthaza ukukhula okusimeme kuyilapho bevikela izintshisekelo zezizwe zabo kulesi simo esishintshayo. 

Imithelela yezintshisakalo zesivinini esikhulu sase-China

Imithelela ebanzi yezintshisakalo zesivinini esikhulu sase-China ingabandakanya:

• Ukufakwa endaweni eyodwa kokusebenza kwezitimela ezifundeni ezithile, ukuqondisa izinzuzo eziya ezinkampanini ezithile nababambiqhaza, okungase kukhuthaze ukungalingani kwezomnotho njengoba izindawo ezithile namabhizinisi evuna izinzuzo eziningi kunezinye, okungase kubangele ukungezwani kwezenhlalo kanye nokwanda kwegebe phakathi kwezifunda ezicebile nezintula.
• Ezokuxhumana kanye nengqalasizinda yamandla avuselelekayo ihlanganiswa eduze nemizila yephrojekthi ye-BRI, yenze kube lula ukwanda kokuxhumana kanye nezixazululo zamandla ahlanzekile, ezingakhuthaza intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe kanye nezinhlelo eziluhlaza.
• Ukuthuthukiswa nokwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe obusha ngaphakathi kwemakethe yezitimela ezihamba ngesivinini esiphezulu, okungaholela ekuthuthweni kwezimpahla nabantu ngokushesha okukhulu, okungase kuguqule amamodeli ebhizinisi ngokukhuthaza izinhlelo zokulethwa okufika ngesikhathi kanye nokunciphisa ukuthembela emoyeni nasemgwaqweni. ezokuthutha.
• Ukwenziwa kwesimanjemanje kwengqalasizinda yesifunda esekelwe emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi emazweni asathuthuka navaliwe, okungavula izindlela ezintsha zohwebo nohwebo, kukhuphule izinga lokukhula komnotho kanye nokwenza ngcono izinga lokuphila kulezi zizwe.
• Izinga lokukhula komnotho elithuthukisiwe emazweni amaningi abamba iqhaza ku-BRI, okungaholela ekuthuthukisweni kwezinsizakalo zomphakathi nengqalasizinda, okungenzeka kukhuphule izinga lempilo lilonke lezakhamuzi.
• Ushintsho olungase lube khona ezimakethe zezemisebenzi nesidingo esikhulu sabasebenzi abanamakhono kwaloliwe kanye nezimboni ezihlobene nakho, okungaholela ekudaleni amathuba emisebenzi kanye namathuba emfundo nokuqeqeshwa kwezobuchwepheshe.
• Ohulumeni babuyekeza izinqubomgomo zokuqinisekisa ukulingana phakathi kokukhula komnotho nokongiwa kwemvelo, okuholela ekwakhiweni kwemithethonqubo ekhuthaza izinqubo ezisimeme ekwakhiweni nasekusebenzeni kwezitimela.
• Ukushintsha okungaba khona kwezibalo zabantu njengokuxhumana okuthuthukisiwe ngamanethiwekhi wezitimela ezihamba ngesivinini esiphezulu kungase kukhuthaze ukuthuthela emadolobheni, okuholela ekuhlanganiseni kwesibalo sabantu emadolobheni futhi okungenzeka kube nzima nengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni.
• Ukuvela kwezitimela ezihamba ngesivinini esiphezulu njengendlela ekhethwayo yokuthutha izimpahla nabantu, okungaholela ekwehleni kwezimboni zezindiza nezokuthuthwa kwemigwaqo, okungase kube nomthelela emisebenzini kanye neminotho ethembele kule mikhakha.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Yiziphi izinyathelo ezingenziwa yi-European Union namanye amazwe athuthukile ukulwa nomthelela okhulayo we-geoeconomic we-China kumaketanga okuhlinzeka?
• Uthini umbono wakho mayelana "nomgibe wezikweletu waseShayina"?