Endemic COVID-19: Is the virus poised to become the next seasonal flu?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 3, 2021

The nonstop evolution of the COVID-19 virus has prompted a global rethinking of our approach to the disease. This shift envisions a future where COVID-19 becomes endemic, similar to the seasonal flu, influencing various sectors from healthcare to business and travel. Consequently, societies are preparing for significant changes, such as revamping healthcare infrastructures, developing new business models, and instituting stricter international travel protocols.

Endemic COVID-19 context

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific and medical community have worked tirelessly to develop and administer vaccines with the aim of establishing herd immunity against the virus. However, some developments have put a strain on these efforts due to the emergence of new and more resilient viral variants. Variants such as Alpha and Beta have shown increased transmissibility, but it was the Delta variant, the most contagious of them all, that has primarily driven the third and fourth waves of infections worldwide. 

The challenges posed by COVID-19 do not stop at Delta; the virus continues to mutate and evolve. A new variant named Lambda has been identified and has garnered global attention due to its potential resistance to vaccines. Researchers from Japan have raised concerns about this variant's ability to escape the immunity provided by current vaccines, making it a potential threat to global health. 

This complex dynamic has led to a shift in the global understanding of the future of the virus. High-ranking scientists, including senior researchers from the World Health Organization (WHO), have started to acknowledge a sobering reality. The original expectation of eradicating the virus completely through the achievement of herd immunity is gradually being replaced by a more pragmatic realization. The experts now think that the virus might not be fully eliminated, but rather, it may continue to adapt and eventually become endemic, behaving much like the seasonal influenza that returns every winter. 

Disruptive impact

The long-term strategy being developed by nations such as Singapore implies significant changes in societal attitudes and health protocols. For example, the shift from a focus on mass testing and contact tracing to monitoring severe illnesses requires a stronger healthcare infrastructure to manage potential outbreaks effectively. This pivot includes bolstering intensive care capacities and implementing comprehensive vaccination programs, which may need to include annual booster shots. 

For businesses, this new paradigm presents both challenges and opportunities. Remote work has become the norm due to the pandemic, but as conditions improve, many workers may be able to commute and return to office settings, reinstating a sense of normalcy. However, businesses would need to adapt to ensure the safety of their employees, possibly incorporating regular health checks, vaccinations, and hybrid working models. 

International travel, a sector severely hit by the pandemic, may also see a revival but in a new form. Vaccination certificates and pre-departure tests might become standard requirements, akin to visas or passports, affecting both leisure and business travel. Governments might consider allowing travel to countries that have the virus under control, making global partnerships and travel decisions more strategic. Tourism and travel sectors would need to build a robust and responsive system to handle these changes. Overall, the expectation is for a world where COVID-19 is a part of life, not an interruption to it.

Implications of endemic COVID-19

Wider implications of an endemic COVID-19 may include:

• The development of more remote healthcare services, including do-it-yourself test kits and easily accessible treatments and medicines.
• An uptick in business for the travel and hospitality industry, provided that more and more countries are able to manage the virus effectively.
• Pharmaceutical companies having to develop updated vaccines annually that are effective against new COVID variant and increase their production.
• Enhanced digitalization across various sectors, particularly in education and healthcare, leading to a broad transformation in the way services are delivered.
• Changes in city planning and urban development, with increased importance placed on open spaces and less densely populated living conditions to limit virus spread.
• The potential for increased investment in biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors leading to accelerated medical breakthroughs.
• The rise in telework shifting the real estate market, with a decrease in demand for commercial properties and an increase in demand for residential properties equipped for remote work.
• New legislation to protect the rights and health of remote workers, leading to changes in labor laws and norms surrounding work-from-home practices.
• Greater emphasis on self-sufficiency in terms of food and essential goods leading to an increased focus on local production and a reduction in global supply chain dependency, potentially enhancing national security but also affecting international trade dynamics.
• The increased production of medical waste, including masks and vaccination equipment, posing serious environmental challenges and requiring more sustainable waste management practices.

Questions to comment on

• How do you plan to adapt to a potential world with an endemic COVID virus?
• How do you think traveling would change long term as a result of an endemic COVID virus?