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ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ohulumeni kanye nesivumelwano esisha somhlaba wonke: Ukuphela Kwezimpi Zezulu P12

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 13:00

Uma ufunde uchungechunge olugcwele lwezimpi Zezulu kuze kube manje, cishe usondela esigabeni sokudangala okumaphakathi kuya kokuthuthukile. Kuhle! Kufanele uzizwe kabi. Kuyikusasa lakho futhi uma kungenziwanga lutho ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, lokho kuzokuncela ebukhosini.

Sesikushilo lokho, cabanga ngale ngxenye yochungechunge njengeProzac noma i-Paxil yakho. Nakuba ikusasa lingase libe libi, izinto ezintsha ezisetshenzwa ngososayensi, izinkampani ezizimele, nohulumeni emhlabeni wonke namuhla zisengasisindisa. Sineminyaka engu-20 eqinile yokwenza isenzo sethu sihlangane futhi kubalulekile ukuthi isakhamuzi esivamile sazi ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzosingathwa kanjani emazingeni aphezulu. Ngakho-ke ake siqonde kuyo.

Ngeke Udlule ... 450ppm

Ungase ukhumbule engxenyeni yokuqala yalolu chungechunge ukuthi umphakathi wesayensi ugxile kanjani ngenombolo 450. Njengokuphindaphinda okusheshayo, iningi lezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe ezinomthwalo wemfanelo wokuhlela umzamo womhlaba wonke mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ziyavuma ukuthi umkhawulo singavumela igesi ebamba ukushisa ( I-GHG) ukugxila okufanele kwakhiwe emkhathini wethu izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi (ppm). Lokho okungaphezulu noma ngaphansi kulingana nokukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa kwe-Celsius amabili esimweni sezulu sethu, yingakho isiteketiso saso: “umkhawulo ongu-2-degrees-Celsius.”

Kusukela ngo-February 2014, ukugxila kwe-GHG emkhathini wethu, ikakhulukazi i-carbon dioxide, bekuyi-395.4 ppm. Lokho kusho ukuthi sekusele amashumi ambalwa eminyaka ukuthi sifinyelele ku-450 ppm cap.

Uma ulufunde lonke uchungechunge kuze kube lapha, ungase ujabule ngomthelela oyoba nawo ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wethu uma sedlula umkhawulo. Sizophila emhlabeni ohluke ngokuphelele, ononya kakhulu futhi onabantu abambalwa kakhulu abaphilayo kunalokho ababekubikezele izazi zabantu.

Ake sibheke lokhu kuphakama kwe-Celsius okubili umzuzu owodwa. Ukukugwema, umhlaba kuzomele wehlise ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa ngo-50% ngo-2050 (ngokusekelwe emazingeni ka-1990) futhi cishe ngo-100% ngo-2100. E-US, lokho kumelela ukuncipha cishe ngo-90% ngo-2050, nokunciphisa okufanayo. emazweni amaningi anezimboni, okuhlanganisa iChina neNdiya.

Lezi zibalo ezinkulu zenza osopolitiki babe novalo. Ukuzuza ukuncishiswa kwalesi sikali kungase kubonise ukwehla okukhulu komnotho, okuxosha izigidi zabantu emsebenzini futhi zibe ubumpofu—hhayi impela inkundla enhle ongawina ngayo ukhetho.

Kukhona Isikhathi

Kodwa ngenxa yokuthi okuhlosiwe kukhulu, akusho ukuthi ngeke kwenzeke futhi akusho ukuthi asinaso isikhathi esanele sokufinyelela kuzo. Isimo sezulu singase sishise ngokuphawulekayo esikhathini esifushane, kodwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okuyinhlekelele kungase kuthathe amashumi eminyaka amaningi ngenxa yokuhamba kancane kwempendulo.

Khonamanjalo, uguquko oluholwa yizinkampani ezizimele luza emikhakheni eyahlukene enamandla okuguqula hhayi nje kuphela indlela esisebenzisa ngayo amandla, kodwa nendlela esiphatha ngayo umnotho wethu kanye nomphakathi wethu. Amashifu amaningi e-paradigm azodlula umhlaba phakathi neminyaka engama-30 ezayo, okuthi, ngokusekelwa okwanele komphakathi nohulumeni, kungashintsha kakhulu umlando womhlaba ube ngcono, ikakhulukazi njengoba uhlobene nemvelo.

Ngenkathi ngayinye yalezi zinguquko, ikakhulukazi ezezindlu, ezokuthutha, ukudla, amakhompyutha, namandla, zinalo lonke uchungechunge olunikelwe kukho, ngizogqamisa izingxenye zayo ngayinye ezothinta kakhulu ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Uhlelo Lokudla Lomhlaba Wonke

Kunezindlela ezine isintu esizogwema ngazo inhlekelele yesimo sezulu: ukunciphisa isidingo sethu samandla, ukukhiqiza amandla ngokusebenzisa izindlela eziqhubekayo, ezinekhabhoni ephansi, ukushintsha i-DNA ye-capitalism ukubeka inani ekukhishweni kwekhabhoni, kanye nokongiwa kwemvelo okungcono.

Ake siqale ngephuzu lokuqala: ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwethu kwamandla. Kunemikhakha emithathu emikhulu eyakha ingxenye enkulu yokusetshenziswa kwamandla emphakathini wethu: ukudla, ezokuthutha, nezindlu—indlela esidla ngayo, indlela esihamba ngayo, indlela esiphila ngayo—izinto eziyisisekelo zokuphila kwethu kwansuku zonke.

Ukudla

Ngokusho the Inhlangano Yezokudla Nezolimo yeZizwe Ezihlangene, ezolimo (ikakhulukazi imfuyo) zifaka isandla ngokuqondile nangokungaqondile kuze kufike ku-18% (amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7.1 alingana ne-CO2 elinganayo) wokukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa emhlabeni wonke. Lelo inani elibalulekile lokungcola elingancishiswa ngokuzuza ekusebenzeni kahle.

Izinto ezilula zizosakazeka phakathi kuka-2015-2030. Abalimi bazoqala ukutshala imali emapulazini ahlakaniphile, ukuhlela amapulazi aphethwe idatha enkulu, ama-drone asebenza ngokuzenzakalelayo emhlabeni kanye nomoya wokulima, ukuguqulelwa ekubeni yi-algae evuselelekayo noma kumafutha asuselwa ku-hydrogen emishini, kanye nokufakwa kwamajeneretha elanga nawomoya emhlabeni wabo. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, inhlabathi yokulima nokuncika kwayo kakhulu kumanyolo osekelwe ku-nitrogen (owenziwe ngamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi) ungumthombo omkhulu we-global nitrous oxide (igesi ebamba ukushisa). Ukusebenzisa lawo manyolo ngokuphumelelayo futhi ekugcineni ukushintshela kumanyolo osekelwe ku-algae kuzoba yinto okugxilwe kuyo kakhulu eminyakeni ezayo.

Ngayinye yalezi zindlela ezintsha izophuca amaphesenti ambalwa wamaphuzu okukhishwa kwekhabhoni yasepulazini, kanti futhi yenze amapulazi akhiqize kakhudlwana futhi enze inzuzo kubanikazi bawo. (Lezi zinhlelo ezintsha zizophinde zibe unkulunkulu kubalimi emazweni asathuthuka.) Kodwa ukuze sibambe iqhaza ekuncishisweni kwekhabhoni kwezolimo, kufanele futhi sinciphise amandle ezilwane. Yebo, ufunda lokho kahle. I-Methane ne-nitrous oxide inomphumela ocishe ube ngu-300 wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke njenge-carbon dioxide, kanti amaphesenti angu-65 okukhishwa kwe-nitrous oxide emhlabeni wonke kanye namaphesenti angu-37 okukhishwa kwe-methane avela kumquba wemfuyo.

Ngeshwa, njengoba isidingo somhlaba wonke senyama siyilokho esiyikho, ukuncishiswa kwezinombolo zemfuyo esiyidlayo cishe ngeke kwenzeke maduze. Ngenhlanhla, maphakathi nawo-2030, izimakethe zempahla yomhlaba wonke zenyama zizowa, zinciphise isidingo, ziguqule wonke umuntu zibe abantu abadla imifino, futhi zisize ngokungaqondile imvelo ngesikhathi esifanayo. 'Kungenzeka kanjani lokho?' uyabuza. Hhayi-ke, uzodinga ukufunda yethu Ikusasa Lokudla uchungechunge ukuze uthole. (Yebo, ngiyazi, ngiyazonda lapho ababhali benza kanjalo. Kodwa ngithembe, lesi sihloko sesiside ngokwanele kakade.)

Transportation

Ngo-2030, imboni yezokuthutha izobe ingabonakali uma iqhathaniswa nanamuhla. Njengamanje, izimoto zethu, amabhasi, amaloli, izitimela nezindiza zethu zikhiqiza cishe u-20% wesisi esingcolisa umoya emhlabeni. Maningi amathuba okwehlisa leyo nombolo.

Masithathe imoto yakho evamile. Cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezinhlanu zawo wonke uphethiloli wethu ohambayo uya ezimotweni. Izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zalawo mafutha zisetshenziselwa ukunqoba isisindo semoto ukuze iyiqhubele phambili. Noma yini esingayenza ukwenza izimoto zibe lula kuzokwenza izimoto zishibhe futhi zonge kakhulu kuphethiloli.

Nakhu okusendleleni: abenzi bezimoto maduze bazokwenza zonke izimoto nge-carbon fiber, into elula kakhulu futhi enamandla kune-aluminium. Lezi zimoto ezilula zizosebenza ngezinjini ezincane kodwa zenze kahle. Izimoto ezilula zizokwenza ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwamabhethri esizukulwane esilandelayo kusebenze izinjini ezivuthayo, zehlise intengo yezimoto zikagesi, futhi zizenze zingabizi ngempela ukuncintisana nezimoto ezivuthayo. Uma lokhu sekwenzekile, ukushintshela kugesi kuzoqhuma, njengoba izimoto zikagesi ziphephe kakhulu, zibiza kancane ukuzinakekela, futhi zibiza kancane ukugcwalisa uphethiloli uma ziqhathaniswa nezimoto ezisebenza ngegesi.

Inguquko efanayo engenhla izosebenza kumabhasi, amaloli, nezindiza. Kuzoshintsha umdlalo. Uma ungeza izimoto ezizishayelayo ekuxubeni nasekusebenziseni ingqalasizinda yethu yemigwaqo ngendlela ephumelelayo kulezi zinyathelo eziphawulwe ngenhla, ukukhishwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa embonini yezokuthutha kuzoncipha kakhulu. E-US kuphela, lolu shintsho luzonciphisa ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela ngemiphongolo eyizigidi ezingama-20 ngosuku ngo-2050, okwenza izwe lizimele ngokuphelele.

Izakhiwo Zokuhweba Nezindawo Zokuhlala

Ugesi nokukhiqiza ukushisa kukhiqiza cishe u-26% wesisi esingcolisa umoya emhlabeni. Izakhiwo, kuhlanganise nezindawo zethu zokusebenza nemizi yethu, zakha izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zikagesi osetshenziswayo. Namuhla, iningi lalawo mandla liyamoshwa, kodwa emashumini eminyaka azayo azobona izakhiwo zethu ziphindaphindeka kathathu noma kane amandla azo okusebenza kahle, konga amadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.4 (e-US).

Lokhu kuphumelela kuzovela kumafasitela athuthukile abamba ukushisa ebusika futhi ashiye ukukhanya kwelanga ehlobo; Izilawuli ezingcono ze-DDC zokushisisa, ukufaka umoya, nomoya osebenza kahle; izilawuli zevolumu yomoya eziguquguqukayo ezisebenzayo; i-automation yokwakha ehlakaniphile; kanye nezibani eziwongayo kanye namapulaki. Okunye okungenzeka wukuguqula izakhiwo zibe izitshalo zamandla amancane ngokuguqula amafasitela azo abe amaphaneli elanga (yup, leyo yinto manje) noma ukufaka amajeneretha wamandla okushisa komhlaba.Izakhiwo ezinjalo zingakhishwa ngokuphelele kugridi, kukhishwe indawo yazo yekhabhoni.

Sekukonke, ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ekudleni, kwezokuthutha, nasezindlini kuzohamba ibanga elide ekwehliseni izinga le-carbon footprint yethu. Ingxenye engcono kakhulu ukuthi zonke lezi zinzuzo ezisebenza kahle zizoholwa yizinkampani ezizimele. Lokho kusho ukuthi ngezinxephezelo ezanele zikahulumeni, zonke lezi zinguquko ezishiwo ngenhla zingenzeka ngokushesha kangako.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kusho nokuthi ohulumeni badinga ukutshala imali encane emandleni amasha nabizayo. Lokho kwenza ukutshalwa kwezimali ezintweni ezivuselelekayo kukhange kakhulu, okuholela ekushintshweni kancane kancane kwemithombo yamandla angcolile njengamalahle.

Ukunisela Okuvuselelekayo

Kukhona ukungqubuzana okuhlala kuqhutshwa abaphikisi bemithombo yamandla avuselelekayo abaphikisa ngokuthi njengoba okuvuselelekayo kungakwazi ukukhiqiza amandla 24/7, ngeke kuthenjwa ngokutshalwa kwezimali kwesilinganiso esikhulu. Kungakho sidinga imithombo yamandla eyisisekelo eyisisekelo njengamalahle, igesi, noma i-nuclear lapho ilanga lingashizi.

Nokho, labo chwepheshe nosopolitiki abahluleka ukukusho ukuthi amalahle, igesi, noma izikhungo zenuzi ngezinye izikhathi ziyavaleka ngenxa yezingxenye ezingalungile noma ukulungiswa. Kodwa lapho benza, abacimi ngempela izibani emadolobheni abawasebenzelayo. Lokho kungenxa yokuthi sinento ebizwa ngokuthi igridi yamandla, lapho uma isitshalo esisodwa sivaleka, amandla akwesinye isitshalo acoshe ukuntenga ngokushesha, asekele izidingo zamandla edolobha.

Yona leyo grid iyona into evuselelekayo ezosetshenziswa, ukuze kuthi lapho ilanga lingashisi, noma umoya ungashayi esifundeni esisodwa, ukulahleka kwamandla kunganxeshezelwa kwezinye izifunda lapho okuvuselelekayo kukhiqiza amandla. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amabhethri osayizi wezimboni eza ku-inthanethi maduze angagcina inani elikhulu lamandla phakathi nosuku ukuze akhishwe kusihlwa. Lawa maphuzu amabili asho ukuthi umoya nelanga zinganikeza amanani athembekile wamandla ngokulingana nemithombo yamandla eyisisekelo yomthwalo wendabuko.

Ekugcineni, ngo-2050, ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba kuyodingeka ishintshe igridi yayo yamandla egugile kanye nezitshalo zikagesi noma kunjalo, ngakho ukufaka le ngqalasizinda ngezinto ezishibhile, ezihlanzekile, kanye nezivuselelekayo zokukhulisa amandla kwenza umqondo wezezimali. Ngisho noma ukushintsha ingqalasizinda ngezinto ezivuselelekayo kubiza okufanayo nokufaka imithombo yamandla evamile, okuvuselelekayo kuseyinketho engcono. Cabanga ngalokhu: ngokungafani nemithombo yamandla evamile, ephakathi nendawo, izinto ezivuselelekayo ezisabalalisiwe aziwuthwali umthwalo ofanayo ongemuhle njengezinsongo zokuphepha kwezwe kusukela ekuhlaselweni kwamaphekula, ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli ongcolile, izindleko eziphezulu zezimali, isimo sezulu esibi nemiphumela yezempilo, nokuba sengcupheni okubanzi. ukucima kukagesi.

Ukutshalwa kwezimali ekusebenzeni kahle kwamandla nokuvuseleleka kungasusa izimboni emalahleni namafutha ngo-2050, konge ohulumeni izigidigidi zamaRandi, kukhulise umnotho ngemisebenzi emisha ekufakweni kwegridi evuselelekayo nehlakaniphile, futhi kunciphise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yethu cishe ngama-80%. Ekupheleni kosuku, amandla avuselelekayo azokwenzeka, ngakho-ke asicindezele ohulumeni bethu ukuthi basheshise uhlelo.

Ukulahla i-Base-load

Manje, ngiyazi ukuthi ngisanda kukhuluma ngemithombo yamandla eyisisekelo eyisisekelo ekhulume kudoti, kodwa kunezinhlobo ezimbili ezintsha zemithombo yamandla angavuseleleki okufanele ukukhuluma ngayo: amandla e-thorium kanye ne-fusion. Cabanga ngalawa njengamandla enuzi esizukulwaneni esilandelayo, kodwa ahlanzekile, aphephile, futhi anamandla kakhulu.

Ama-reactors e-thorium asebenzisa i-thorium nitrate, insiza echichima ngokuphindwe kane kune-uranium. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ama-Fusion reactor, ngokuyisisekelo asebenza emanzini, noma inhlanganisela ye-hydrogen isotopes tritium ne-deuterium, ukuze abe ncamashi. Ubuchwepheshe obuzungeze ama-thorium reactors sebuvele bukhona futhi busebenza ngenkuthalo ilandelwa yiChina. Amandla e-Fusion abelokhu exhaswa kancane amashumi eminyaka, kodwa muva nje izindaba ezivela ku-Lockheed Martin kukhombisa ukuthi i-fusion reactor entsha ingase ibe ishumi leminyaka nje ukusuka.

Uma enye yale mithombo yamandla iza ku-inthanethi phakathi neshumi leminyaka elizayo, izothumela ukushaqeka ngezimakethe zamandla. I-thorium namandla e-fusion anamandla okukhiqiza amanani amakhulu wamandla ahlanzekile angahlanganiswa kalula negridi yethu yamandla ekhona. Ama-reactors e-thorium ikakhulukazi azobiza kakhulu ukwakha ubuningi. Uma i-China iphumelela ukwakha inguqulo yayo, izosheshe isho ukuphela kwazo zonke izimboni zamandla wamalahle kulo lonke elase-China—kususe ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Ngakho-ke kuyi-tossup, uma i-thorium ne-fusion ingena ezimakethe zezentengiselwano phakathi neminyaka eyi-10-15 ezayo, khona-ke cishe izodlula okuvuselelekayo njengekusasa lamandla. Noma yisiphi isikhathi esingaphezu kwalokho nokuvuselelekayo kuzophumelela. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yikuphi, amandla ashibhile futhi amaningi asekusasa lethu.

Intengo Yeqiniso kuCarbon

Uhlelo lonxiwankulu luyinto esungulwe yisintu enkulu kunazo zonke. Ingenise inkululeko lapho kwake kwaba khona ubudlwangudlwangu, ingcebo lapho ubumpofu babukhona. Kuye kwakhuphula isintu safinyelela eziqongweni ezingezona zangempela. Futhi nokho, uma iyekwa izenzela yona, ubunxiwankulu bungabhubhisa kalula nje obungadala. Iwuhlelo oludinga ukuphathwa okusebenzayo ukuqinisekisa ukuthi amandla alo ahambisana kahle nezindinganiso zempucuko eyisebenzelayo.

Futhi leyo ngenye yezinkinga ezinkulu zesikhathi sethu. Uhlelo lonxiwankulu, njengoba lusebenza namuhla, aluhambisani nezidingo kanye nezimiso zabantu okuhloswe ukuba babasebenzele. Uhlelo lonxiwankulu, ngendlela oluyiyo njengamanje, luyasehlula ngezindlela ezimbili ezibalulekile: lukhuthaza ukungalingani futhi luyehluleka ukubeka inani lezinsiza ezikhishwe eMhlabeni wethu. Ngenxa yengxoxo yethu, sizobhekana nobuthakathaka bakamuva.

Njengamanje, uhlelo lonxiwankulu alubeki nzuzo kumthelela onalo endaweni yethu. Isidlo sasemini samahhala. Uma inkampani ithola indawo yomhlaba enensiza ebalulekile, empeleni ingeyayo ukuthenga nokwenza inzuzo ngayo. Ngenhlanhla, kunendlela esingahlela kabusha ngayo kanye iDNA yohlelo lonxiwankulu ukuze empeleni lunakekele futhi lusebenzele imvelo, sibe sikhulisa umnotho futhi sihlinzekela wonke umuntu kule planethi.

Shintshanisa Izintela Eziphelelwe Isikhathi

Ngokuyisisekelo, buyisela intela yokuthengisa intela yekhabhoni bese ubuyisela intela yendawo nge-a intela yendawo esekelwe ekuminyana.

Chofoza izixhumanisi ezimbili ezingenhla uma ufuna ukufunda ngalezi zinto, kodwa iphuzu eliyisisekelo ukuthi ngokwengeza intela yekhabhoni elandisa ngokunembile ukuthi sikhipha kanjani izinsiza eMhlabeni, ukuthi siziguqula kanjani lezo zinsiza zibe imikhiqizo namasevisi awusizo, futhi ukuthi sizithutha kanjani lezo zimpahla eziwusizo emhlabeni wonke, ekugcineni sizobeka inani langempela endaweni esihlanganyela ngayo sonke. Futhi uma sibeka ukubaluleka kokuthile, kungaleso sikhathi kuphela lapho uhlelo lwethu lonxiwankulu luyosebenza ukuyinakekela.

Izihlahla nezilwandle

Ngikushiye njengephuzu lesine ukongiwa kwemvelo njengoba kuyiyona esobala kubantu abaningi.

Masibe ngokoqobo lapha. Indlela eshibhile nesebenza kahle kakhulu yokumunca isikhutha emkhathini ukutshala izihlahla eziningi futhi sikhulise amahlathi ethu. Njengamanje, ukugawulwa kwamahlathi kwenza cishe u-20% wekhabhoni ekhishwa minyaka yonke. Uma singehlisa lelo phesenti, imiphumela ingaba mikhulu. Futhi uma kubhekwa intuthuko yokukhiqiza ebalulwe esigabeni sokudla esingenhla, singatshala ukudla okwengeziwe ngaphandle kokugawula izihlahla eziningi zezindawo zokulima.

Ngaleso sikhathi, izilwandle ziwumthombo wethu wekhabhoni omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni. Ngeshwa, izilwandle zethu ziyafa kokubili ngenxa yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni eningi (okuyenza ibe ne-asidi) kanye nokudoba ngokweqile. Umkhawulo wokukhipha igesi kanye nezindawo ezinkulu ezingadobi yikhona kuphela okuwukuphela kwethemba lolwandle lwethu lokusinda ezizukulwaneni ezizayo.

Isimo Samanje Sezingxoxo Zesimo Sezulu Esiteji Somhlaba

Njengamanje, osopolitiki nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu akuhlangani ncamashi. Iqiniso lanamuhla liwukuthi ngisho nalezi zinqubo ezintsha ezishiwo ngenhla, ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi kusazosho ukwehlisa umnotho ngenhloso. Osopolitiki abenza lokho abajwayele ukuhlala emandleni.

Lokhu kukhetha phakathi kokuphathwa kwemvelo nenqubekelaphambili yezomnotho kunzima kakhulu emazweni asathuthuka. Baye babona ukuthi amazwe omhlaba wokuqala aye aceba kanjani ngenxa yemvelo, ngakho ukuwacela ukuba agweme lokho kukhula akulula. Lamazwe asathuthuka aveza ukuthi njengoba amazwe omhlaba wokuqala abangela ukugcwala kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini, kufanele kube yiwo athwala umthwalo omkhulu wokuyihlanza. Ngaleso sikhathi, amazwe omhlaba wokuqala awafuni ukwehlisa umoya okhishwayo - futhi azibeka engcupheni yezomnotho - uma ukusikeka kwawo kukhanselwe ukukhishwa kwegesi ephumayo emazweni afana neNdiya neChina. Kuyinto kancane isimo inkukhu neqanda.

Ngokusho kukaDavid Keith, uProfessor waseHarvard noMongameli weCarbon Engineering, ngokombono wosomnotho, uma usebenzisa imali eningi unciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi ezweni lakini, ugcina ususabalalisa izinzuzo zalokho kuncipha emhlabeni wonke, kodwa zonke izindleko zalokho. ukusikeka ezweni lakini. Kungakho ohulumeni bekhetha ukutshala imali ukuze bavumelane nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu esikhundleni sokunciphisa intuthu ekhishwayo, ngoba izinzuzo nokutshalwa kwezimali kuhlala emazweni abo.

Izizwe emhlabeni wonke ziyaqaphela ukuthi ukudlula umugqa obomvu we-450 kusho ubuhlungu nokungazinzi kwawo wonke umuntu phakathi neminyaka elandelayo ye-20-30. Kodwa-ke, kukhona futhi lo muzwa wokuthi awukho uphaya owanele wokuhamba, okuphoqa wonke umuntu ukuthi awudle ngokusemandleni akhe ukuze abe sesimweni esingcono kakhulu uma usuphelile. Yingakho uKyoto ehlulekile. Yingakho iCopenhagen yehluleka. Futhi yingakho umhlangano olandelayo uzobhuntsha ngaphandle uma singafakazela ukuthi umnotho okhuthaza ukuncishiswa kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ulungile, esikhundleni sokubi.

Kuzokuba Kubi Ngaphambi Kokuba Kungcono

Enye into eyenza ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kube nzima kakhulu kunanoma iyiphi inselelo isintu esike sabhekana nayo esikhathini esidlule isikhathi esisebenza ngaso. Izinguquko esizenzayo namuhla ukuze sehlise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni zizothinta izizukulwane ezizayo kakhulu.

Cabanga ngalokhu ngombono wosopolitiki: udinga ukukholisa abavoti bakhe ukuthi bavumelane nokutshalwa kwezimali okubizayo ezinhlelweni zemvelo, okungenzeka zikhokhelwe ngokwenyuka kwezintela futhi izinzuzo zazo eziyojatshulelwa yizizukulwane ezizayo kuphela. Njengoba abantu bengasho okuhlukile, abantu abaningi banenkinga yokubeka eceleni u-$20 ngesonto esikhwameni sabo somhlalaphansi, ingasaphathwa eyokuzikhathaza ngempilo yabazukulu abangakaze bababone.

Futhi kuzoba kubi kakhulu. Noma singaphumelela ukudlulela emnothweni onekhabhoni ephansi ngo-2040-50 ngokwenza konke okukhulunywe ngenhla, ukukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa esizokukhipha phakathi kwamanje nalapho kuzokhula emkhathini amashumi eminyaka. Lokhu kukhishwa kuzoholela emiphumeleni emihle yempendulo engasheshisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, okwenza ukubuyela esimweni sezulu "esivamile" sama-1990s kuthathe isikhathi eside nakakhulu-mhlawumbe kuze kube yi-2100s.

Ngokudabukisayo, abantu abazenzi izinqumo ngalezo zilinganiso zesikhathi. Noma yini engaphezu kweminyaka eyi-10 ingase ingabi khona kithi.

Ukuthi Isivumelwano Sokugcina Somhlaba Sizobukeka Kanjani

Njengoba i-Kyoto kanye ne-Copenhagen benganikeza umbono wokuthi osopolitiki bomhlaba abanalwazi mayelana nendlela yokuxazulula ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, iqiniso lihluke kakhulu. Amandla esigaba esiphezulu azi kahle ukuthi isisombululo sokugcina sizobukeka kanjani. Isixazululo sokugcina ngeke saziwe kakhulu kubavoti ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, ngakho-ke abaholi babambezela isisombululo sokugcina kuze kube yilapho isayensi kanye nezinkampani ezizimele zenza indlela yethu yokuphuma ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu noma ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kudala umonakalo omkhulu emhlabeni. ukuthi abavoti bazovuma ukuvotela izixazululo ezingathandwayo kule nkinga enkulu kakhulu.

Nasi isixazululo sokugcina ngamafuphi: Amazwe acebile nathuthuke kakhulu kwezimboni kufanele amukele ukusikeka okujulile nokwangempela ekukhiqizweni kwawo kwekhabhoni. Ukuncishiswa kufanele kujule ngokwanele ukumboza intuthu ephuma kulawo mazwe amancane asathuthuka okumele aqhubeke nokungcolisa ukuze kuphothulwe umgomo wesikhathi esifushane wokukhipha abantu bawo ebuphofini obukhulu kanye nendlala.

Phezu kwalokho, amazwe anothile kufanele ahlangane ukuze akhe Uhlelo lwe-Marshall lwekhulunyaka lama-21 umgomo walo kuzoba ukwakha isikhwama somhlaba wonke sokusheshisa ukuthuthukiswa Kwezwe Lesithathu futhi sishintshele emhlabeni ongemuva kwekhabhoni. Ingxenye yesine yalesi sikhwama izohlala emazweni athuthukile ukuze ithole uxhaso lwamasu ukuze kusheshiswe izinguquko zokongiwa kwamandla nokukhiqiza ezichazwe ekuqaleni kwalesi sihloko. Izingxenye ezintathu ezisele zalesi sikhwama zizosetshenziselwa ukudluliswa kwezobuchwepheshe kanye noxhaso lwezimali ukusiza amazwe Omhlaba Wesithathu ukuthi agxume phezu kwengqalasizinda evamile kanye nokukhiqizwa kukagesi aye kwingqalasizinda esabalalisiwe kanye nenethiwekhi yamandla ezoba eshibhile, ekwazi ukumelana nokuqina, ukukala kalula, futhi ikakhulukazi ikhabhoni. ukungathathi hlangothi.

Imininingwane yalolu hlelo ingase yehluke—isihogo, izici zalo zingase ziholwe yizinkampani ezizimele—kodwa uhlaka lulonke lubukeka lufana nalokhu okusanda kuchazwa.

Ekupheleni kosuku, kumayelana nobulungisa. Abaholi bomhlaba kuzofanele bavumelane ukusebenzisana ukuze kunzinziswe imvelo futhi kancane kancane bayiphulukise ibuyele ezingeni lika-1990. Futhi ngokwenza kanjalo, laba baholi kuyodingeka bavumelane ngelungelo elisha lomhlaba wonke, ilungelo elisha eliyisisekelo lawo wonke umuntu emhlabeni, lapho wonke umuntu ezovunyelwa ukwabelwa kwaminyaka yonke, ukwabelwa komuntu siqu kwesisi esingcolisa umoya. Uma weqa leso sabelo, uma ungcolisa ngaphezu kwesabelo sakho esifanelekile sonyaka, ukhokha intela yekhabhoni ukuze uzibuyisele ebhalansini.

Lapho lelo lungelo lomhlaba wonke sekuvunyelwene ngalo, abantu emazweni omhlaba wokuqala bazoqala ngokushesha ukukhokha intela yekhabhoni yempilo ewubukhazikhazi, enekhabhoni ephezulu asebephila ngayo. Leyo ntela yekhabhoni izokhokha ukuze kuthuthukiswe amazwe ampofu, ukuze abantu bawo ngelinye ilanga bajabulele ukuphila ngendlela efanayo neyaseNtshonalanga.

Manje sengiyazi ukuthi ucabangani: uma wonke umuntu ephila impilo yezezimboni, lokho ngeke yini kube kukhulu ukuba imvelo ikwazi ukusekela? Okwamanje, yebo. Ukuze imvelo iqhubeke iphila uma kubhekwa umnotho wanamuhla nobuchwepheshe, iningi labantu emhlabeni lidinga ukuvaleleka ebumpofu obudlulele. Kodwa uma sisheshisa izinguquko ezizayo zokudla, ezokuthutha, izindlu, namandla, khona-ke kuyoba nokwenzeka ngenani labantu emhlabeni wonke ukuba liphile izindlela zokuphila zeWorld First—ngaphandle kokucekela phansi iplanethi. Kanti lokho akusiwo yini umgomo esiwulwelayo?

I-Ace yethu Emgodini: I-Geoengineering

Okokugcina, kunomkhakha owodwa wesayensi isintu esingase (futhi mhlawumbe) siwusebenzise esikhathini esizayo ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu esikhathini esifushane: i-geoengineering.

Incazelo yesichazamazwi.com ye-geoengineering “iwukuxhaphaza ngamabomu okukhulu kwenqubo yemvelo ethinta isimo sezulu somhlaba, ngomzamo wokulwa nemithelela yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke.” Ngokuyisisekelo, ukulawula kwayo isimo sezulu. Futhi sizoyisebenzisela ukunciphisa amazinga okushisa womhlaba okwesikhashana.

Kunezinhlobonhlobo zamaphrojekthi we-geoengineering ebhodini lokudweba—sinezindatshana ezimbalwa ezinikelwe kuleso sihloko kuphela—kodwa okwamanje, sizofingqa izinketho ezimbili ezithembisa kakhulu: i-stratospheric sulfur seed kanye nokuvundiswa kwensimbi olwandle.

I-Stratospheric Sulfur Seeding

Lapho izintaba-mlilo ezinkulu ngokukhethekile ziqhuma, zidubula izingqimba ezinkulu zomlotha wesulfure kuyi-stratosphere, ngokwemvelo nangesikhashana ehlisa izinga lokushisa lomhlaba ngephesenti elilodwa. Kanjani? Ngoba njengoba leso sibabule sizungeza i-stratosphere, sibonisa ukukhanya kwelanga okwanele ekushayeni uMhlaba ukwehlisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke. Ososayensi abafana noSolwazi Alan Robock waseRutgers University bakholelwa ukuthi abantu bangenza okufanayo. U-Robock uphakamisa ukuthi ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbalwa kanye nezindiza ezinkulu ezithwala impahla ezingaba yisishiyagalolunye ezindiza cishe kathathu ngosuku, singakwazi ukwehlisa amathani ayisigidi esibabule ku-stratosphere unyaka ngamunye ukuze kwehlise izinga lokushisa lomhlaba ngedigri elilodwa kuya kwamabili.

Ukuvundiswa Kwensimbi Yolwandle

Izilwandle zakhiwe uchungechunge lokudla olukhulu. Phansi kwalolu chungechunge lokudla kukhona i-phytoplankton (izitshalo ezincane kakhulu). Lezi zitshalo zidla amaminerali aphuma kakhulu othulini olupheshulwa ngumoya oluvela emazwenikazi. Enye yamaminerali abaluleke kakhulu insimbi.

Manje, iziqalo ezizinze eCalifornia, ezizinze eCalifornia, i-Climos kanye nePlanktos zizame ukulahla uthuli lwensimbi oluyimpushana ezindaweni eziningi ekujuleni kolwandle ukuze zivuse izimbali ze-phytoplankton. Ucwaningo lubonisa ukuthi ikhilogremu eyodwa yensimbi eyimpushane ingakhiqiza cishe amakhilogremu ayi-100,000 e-phytoplankton. Lawa ma-phytoplankton abe esemunca amanani amakhulu ekhabhoni njengoba ekhula. Ngokuyisisekelo, noma yiliphi inani lalesi sitshalo elingadliwe yiketango lokudla (okudala inani labantu elidingeka kakhulu lempilo yasolwandle ngendlela) lizowela phansi olwandle, lidonsele phansi ama-mega tonnes ekhabhoni nalo.

Lokho kuzwakala kukuhle, usho. Kodwa kungani lezo zinhlelo ezimbili zokuqalisa zaqhuma?

I-Geoengineering isayensi entsha uma kuqhathaniswa ethola uxhaso kancane futhi engathandwa kakhulu phakathi kososayensi besimo sezulu. Kungani? Ngoba ososayensi bakholelwa (futhi kufanele) ukuthi uma umhlaba usebenzisa amasu e-geoengineering alula futhi aphansi ukugcina isimo sezulu sizinzile esikhundleni somsebenzi onzima ohilelekile ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yethu, khona-ke ohulumeni bomhlaba bangakhetha ukusebenzisa i-geoengineering unomphela.

Ukube bekuyiqiniso ukuthi besingasebenzisa i-geoengineering ukuze sixazulule unomphela izinkinga zethu zesimo sezulu, empeleni ohulumeni bebezokwenza lokho kanye. Ngeshwa, ukusebenzisa i-geoengineering ukuxazulula ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kufana nokwelapha umlutha we-heroin ngokumnika i-heroin eyengeziwe—okuqinisekile kungase kumenze azizwe engcono esikhathini esifushane, kodwa ekugcineni ukulutheka kuzombulala.

Uma sigcina izinga lokushisa lizinzile ngokuzenzela kuyilapho sivumela ukugxiliswa kwe-carbon dioxide ukuthi kukhule, ikhabhoni eyandayo izosibekela izilwandle zethu, izenze zibe ne-asidi. Uma izilwandle ziba ne-asidi kakhulu, zonke izinto eziphilayo ezisolwandle zizofa, umcimbi wokuqothulwa kwekhulu lama-21. Leyo yinto sonke esingathanda ukuyigwema.

Ekugcineni, i-geoengineering kufanele isetshenziswe njengesinyathelo sokugcina kuphela iminyaka engaba ngu-5-10, isikhathi esanele sokuthi umhlaba uthathe izinyathelo eziphuthumayo uma kwenzeka sidlule kumaki angu-450ppm.

Ukuthatha Konke

Ngemva kokufunda uhlu lwezingubo ezitholakalayo kohulumeni ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ungase ulingeke ukuba ucabange ukuthi lolu daba aluyona into enkulu kangako. Ngezinyathelo ezifanele nemali eningi, singenza umehluko futhi sinqobe le nselele yomhlaba wonke. Futhi uqinisile, besingakwenza. Kodwa kuphela uma sithatha isinyathelo ngokushesha kunokuba kamuva.

Ukulutheka kuba nzima ukuyeka uma usunakho. Kungashiwo okufanayo mayelana nokulutheka kwethu ekungcoliseni i-biosphere yethu ngekhabhoni. Uma sizibekela isikhathi eside ukukhahlela lo mkhuba, kuzoba nzima nakakhulu ukululama. Njalo eshumini leminyaka ohulumeni bomhlaba bayekela ukwenza imizamo yangempela nenamandla yokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu namuhla kungasho amashumi ambalwa eminyaka kanye nezigidigidi zamaRandi ngaphezulu ukuguqula imiphumela yako esikhathini esizayo. Futhi uma ufunde uchungechunge lwezihloko ezandulele lesi sihloko—kungaba izindaba noma izibikezelo zezwe—uyazi-ke ukuthi le miphumela izoba mubi kangakanani esintwini.

Akumele siphendukele ku-geoengineering ukuze silungise umhlaba wethu. Akufanele silinde kuze kube isigidigidi sabantu sibulawa indlala nezingxabano ezinodlame ngaphambi kokuba sithathe isinyathelo. Izenzo ezincane namuhla zingagwema izinhlekelele kanye nokukhetha okubi kwekusasa.

Yingakho i-weas umphakathi ingakwazi ukuzithela ngabandayo ngalolu daba. Kuyisibopho sethu sonke ukuthatha isinyathelo. Lokho kusho ukuthatha izinyathelo ezincane ukunaka kakhulu umthelela onawo endaweni yakho. Lokho kusho ukuvumela izwi lakho lizwakale. Futhi lokho kusho ukuzifundisa ukuthi okuncane kakhulu ungenza umehluko omkhulu kakhulu ekuguqukeni kwesimo sezulu. Ngenhlanhla, isitolimende sokugcina salolu chungechunge siyindawo enhle yokufunda ukuthi ungakwenza kanjani lokho: