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Ukungalingani kwengcebo eyedlulele kubonisa ukuntengantenga komnotho womhlaba: Ikusasa lomnotho P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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ULwesithathu, 09/16/2020 - 06:03

Ngo-2014, ingcebo ehlangene yabantu abangu-80 abacebe kakhulu emhlabeni kuyalingana ingcebo yabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.6 (noma cishe ingxenye yohlanga lwesintu). Futhi ngo-2019, osozigidi kulindeleke ukuthi balawule cishe ingxenye yengcebo yomuntu siqu emhlabeni, ngokusho kweBoston Consulting Group's. Umbiko Wengcebo Yomhlaba ka-2015.

Leli zinga lokungalingani kwengcebo phakathi kwezizwe ngazinye lisezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu emlandweni wesintu. Noma ukusebenzisa igama elithi uthando ochwepheshe abaningi, ukungalingani kwengcebo yanamuhla akukaze kwenzeke.

Ukuze uthole umuzwa ongcono wokuthungatha ukuthi igebe lomcebo litsheke kangakanani, bheka ukubonwa okuchazwe kule vidiyo emfushane engezansi:

Ngaphandle kwemizwa evamile yokungalungi lokhu kungalingani kwengcebo kungase kukwenze uzizwe, umthelela wangempela kanye nosongo oludalwa yileli qiniso elivelayo likhulu kakhulu kunalokho osopolitiki abangancamela ukukukholelwa. Ukuze siqonde ukuthi kungani, ake siqale sihlole ezinye zezimbangela ezisilethe kuleli zinga.

Izimbangela zokungalingani kweholo

Uma sibheka sijula kulo mhosha wengcebo owandayo, sithola ukuthi asikho isizathu esisodwa sokusola. Esikhundleni salokho, yinqwaba yezinto eziye zaguga ngokuhlanganyela ekuthenjisweni kwemisebenzi eholela kahle kubantu abaningi, futhi ekugcineni, ukusebenza kwe-American Dream uqobo. Ngengxoxo yethu lapha, ake sihlukanise ngokushesha ezinye zalezi zici:

Ukuhweba kwamahhala: Phakathi neminyaka yawo-1990 nasekuqaleni kwawo-2000, izivumelwano zohwebo lwamahhala—njenge-NAFTA, i-ASEAN, futhi, ngokungangabazeki, i-European Union—zaba yintandokazi phakathi kongqongqoshe abaningi bezezimali emhlabeni. Futhi ephepheni, lokhu kukhula kokuthandwa kuqondakala ngokuphelele. Ukuhwebelana kwamahhala kunciphisa kakhulu izindleko kubathumeli bezwe bangaphandle ukuze bathengise izimpahla zabo kanye nezinsizakalo emazweni ngamazwe. Okubi wukuthi iphinde iveze amabhizinisi esizwe emiqhudelwaneni yamazwe ngamazwe.

Izinkampani zasekhaya ebezingasebenzi kahle noma ezingemuva kwezobuchwepheshe (njengalezo ezisemazweni asathuthuka) noma izinkampani eziqashe inani elikhulu lezisebenzi ezihola kakhulu (njengalezo ezisemazweni athuthukile) zizithole zingakwazi ukuqedela ezimakethe zomhlaba ezisanda kuvulwa. Kusukela ezingeni elikhulu, inqobo nje uma isizwe singenisa amabhizinisi amaningi kanye nemali engenayo kunaleyo elahlekelwe yizinkampani zasekhaya ezihlulekile, khona-ke ukuhweba mahhala kwaba inzuzo enkulu.

Inkinga ukuthi ezingeni elincane, amazwe athuthukile abone iningi lemboni yawo yokukhiqiza iwa ngenxa yokuncintisana namanye amazwe. Futhi ngenkathi inani labantu abangasebenzi likhula, inzuzo yezinkampani ezinkulu zesizwe (izinkampani ezazizinkulu futhi eziyinkimbinkimbi ngokwanele ukuba ziqhudelane futhi ziwine esigabeni samazwe ngamazwe) zaziphezulu kakhulu. Njengokulindelekile, lezi zinkampani zasebenzisa ingxenye yengcebo yazo ukuze zinxenxe abezombangazwe ukuba balondoloze noma bandise izivumelwano zohwebo lwamahhala, naphezu kokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi eholela kahle kwenye ingxenye yomphakathi.

Outsourcing. Ngenkathi sisodabeni lohwebo lwamahhala, akwenzeki singasasho ukukhishwa kwemisebenzi. Njengoba uhwebo lwamahhala lukhulula izimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe, intuthuko kwezokuthutha kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamakhonteyina kwenze izinkampani ezivela emazweni athuthukile ukuba zithuthele isizinda sazo sokukhiqiza emazweni asathuthuka lapho ezabasebenzi ishibhile khona futhi imithetho yezabasebenzi iseduze nokungekho. Lokhu kuthutha kwenze izigidigidi zokonga izindleko zezinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe ezinkulu kakhulu emhlabeni, kodwa ngezindleko zawo wonke umuntu.

Futhi, ngokombono omkhulu, ukukhishwa kwemisebenzi kwaba usizo kubathengi emazweni athuthukile, njengoba kwehlisa izindleko zayo yonke into. Kubantu besigaba esiphakathi, lokhu kwanciphisa izindleko zabo zokuphila, okwathi okungenani kwadambisa umunyu wokulahlekelwa imisebenzi yabo eholela kakhulu.

Ukuzenzekelayo. Esahlukweni sesithathu salolu chungechunge, sihlola ukuthi kanjani i-automation ukukhishwa kwalesi sizukulwane. Ngesivinini esilokhu sikhula, amasistimu obuhlakani bokwenziwa nemishini eyinkimbinkimbi iqeda imisebenzi eminingi phambilini obekuyisizinda esikhethekile sabantu. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi imisebenzi yamakholomu aluhlaza njengokwakha izitini noma imisebenzi yamakhola amhlophe njengokuhweba ngamasheya, izinkampani kuyo yonke ibhodi zithola izindlela ezintsha zokusebenzisa imishini yesimanje emsebenzini.

Futhi njengoba sizohlola esahlukweni sesine, lokhu kuthambekela kuthinta izisebenzi emazweni asathuthuka, njengoba nje kwenzeka emazweni athuthukile—futhi kunemiphumela emibi kakhulu.

Ukuncipha kwenyunyana. Njengoba abaqashi bebhekene nokukhula kokukhiqiza ngedola ngalinye elichithiwe, okokuqala ngenxa yokukhishwa kwemisebenzi futhi manje ku-automation, abasebenzi, ngokuvamile, banamandla amancane kakhulu kunalawo ababenawo ezimakethe.

E-US, ukukhiqizwa kwazo zonke izinhlobo sekuchithiwe futhi nakho, isisekelo sayo esikhulu samalungu enyunyana. Qaphela ukuthi ngeminyaka yawo-1930, umsebenzi oyedwa kwabathathu e-US wayeyingxenye yenyunyana. Lezi zinyunyana zivikele amalungelo abasebenzi futhi zasebenzisa amandla azo okuxoxisana ngokuhlanganyela ukukhulisa amaholo adingekayo ukuze kwakhiwe isigaba esiphakathi esishabalalayo namuhla. Kusukela ngo-2016, ubulungu bezinyunyana behlele kubasebenzi oyedwa kwabayishumi abanezimpawu ezimbalwa zokuphindaphinda.

Ukukhuphuka kochwepheshe. I-flip side ye-automation ukuthi ngenkathi i-AI kanye namarobhothi enciphisa amandla okuxoxisana kanye nenani lokuvulwa kwemisebenzi kubasebenzi abanamakhono aphansi, izisebenzi ezinamakhono aphezulu, ezifunde kakhulu i-AI engakwazi (okwamanje) ukuzifaka esikhundleni zingaxoxisana ngamaholo amakhulu kakhulu kunawo. kungenzeka ngaphambili. Isibonelo, abasebenzi emkhakheni wezezimali kanye nobunjiniyela besoftware bangafuna amaholo afinyelele ezibalweni eziyisithupha. Ukukhula kwamaholo alesi sigaba sochwepheshe kanye nalabo abawaphethe kunomthelela omkhulu ekukhuleni kwezibalo zokungalingani kwengcebo.

Ukwehla kwamandla emali kudla iholo elincane. Esinye isici ukuthi iholo elincane liye lahlala linenkani emazweni amaningi athuthukile kule minyaka engamashumi amathathu edlule, njengoba uhulumeni egunyaza ukwenyusa ngokuvamile elandela kakhulu izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, lokho kwehla kwamandla emali kuye kwadla inani langempela lomholo omncane, okwenza kwaba nzima nakakhulu ngalabo abasezingeni eliphansi ukuba bangene esigabeni esiphakathi.

Izintela ezivuna abacebile. Kungase kube nzima ukukucabanga manje, kodwa ngeminyaka yawo-1950, izinga lentela labahola kakhulu eMelika enyakatho ngamaphesenti angama-70. Lesi silinganiso sentela sehlile kusukela lapho ngokuncishiswa okumangazayo okwenzeka ekuqaleni kwawo-2000, okuhlanganisa nokuncishiswa okukhulu kwentela yendawo yase-US. Ngenxa yalokho, iphesenti elilodwa lakhulisa ingcebo yalo ngokukhula ngokusuka emalini yebhizinisi, imali engenayo yemali, kanye nenzuzo yemali, konke ngesikhathi bedlulisela enye yale ngcebo izizukulwane ngezizukulwane.

Rise wokusebenza kanzima. Okokugcina, nakuba imisebenzi eholela kahle esezingeni eliphakathi ingase yehle, imisebenzi eholela kancane, yetoho iyanda, ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wezinkonzo. Ngaphandle komholo ophansi, le misebenzi yesevisi enamakhono aphansi ayinikezi eduze nezinzuzo ezifanayo ezinikezwa yimisebenzi yesikhathi esigcwele. Futhi isimo esintekenteke sale misebenzi sikwenza kube nzima kakhulu ukonga nokukhuphula izinga lomnotho. Okubi nakakhulu, njengoba izigidi zabantu ziphoqeleka kulo "umnotho we-gig" eminyakeni ezayo, kuzodala ukubeka ingcindezi eyengeziwe emaholo avele avela kule misebenzi yesikhashana.

Sekukonke, izici ezichazwe ngenhla zingachazwa kabanzi njengezitayela ezithuthukiswa ngesandla esingabonakali sobunxiwankulu. Ohulumeni nezinkampani bamane bathuthukisa izinqubomgomo ezithuthukisa izintshisekelo zabo zebhizinisi futhi zandise amandla abo okwenza inzuzo. Inkinga ukuthi njengoba igebe lokungalingani kweholo likhula, imifantu ebucayi iqala ukuvuleka endaweni yethu yezenhlalo, ibhibha njengesilonda esivulekile.

Umthelela wezomnotho wokungalingani kwemali engenayo

Kusukela ku-WWII kuze kube sekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-1970, ingxenye ngayinye yesihlanu (quintile) yokusabalalisa imali engenayo phakathi kwabantu base-US yakhula ndawonye ngendlela elinganayo. Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kweminyaka yawo-1970s (ngaphandle kwesikhashana phakathi neminyaka kaClinton), ukusatshalaliswa kwemali engenayo phakathi kwezigaba ezahlukahlukene zabantu baseMelika kwakhula ngokwehlukana kakhulu. Eqinisweni, ingxenye eyodwa kwezimbili yemindeni yabona a Ukukhula ngamaphesenti angama-278 emalini yabo yangempela engenayo yentela phakathi kuka-1979 kuya ku-2007, kuyilapho ama-60% aphakathi abone ukwanda okungaphansi kwamaphesenti angama-40.

Manje, inselelo ngayo yonke le mali engenayo egxile ezandleni zabambalwa kakhulu ukuthi kunciphisa ukusetshenziswa okuvamile emnothweni wonkana futhi kuwenza ube ntekenteke kakhulu kuwo wonke amazwe. Kunezizathu ezimbalwa zokuthi kungani lokhu kwenzeka:

Okokuqala, nakuba abacebile bengase bachithe imali eningi ezintweni ezisetshenziswayo (okungukuthi, izimpahla zokudayisa, ukudla, izinsiza, njll), abathengi ngaphezu komuntu ojwayelekile. Ukuze uthole isibonelo esenziwe lula kakhulu, u-$1,000 uhlukaniswa ngokulinganayo phakathi kwabantu abayi-10 kungase kubangele ukuthi amapheya angu-10 amajini athengwe ngo-$100 lilinye noma u-$1,000 womsebenzi wezomnotho. Khonamanjalo, umuntu oyedwa ocebile onaleyo $1,000 efanayo akadingi amapheya amajini ayi-10, angase afune ukuthenga amathathu kakhulu; futhi noma ngabe ijini ngalinye lalawo majini libiza u-$200 esikhundleni sika-$100, lokho kusazofika ku-$600 womsebenzi wezomnotho uma kuqhathaniswa no-$1,000.

Kusukela kuleli phuzu, kufanele sicabangele ukuthi njengoba ingcebo encane futhi encane yabiwa phakathi kwabantu, abantu abancane bazoba nemali eyanele yokuyisebenzisa ekusetshenzisweni okuvamile. Lokhu kwehliswa kokusetshenziswa kwemali kunciphisa umsebenzi wezomnotho ezingeni elikhulu.

Yiqiniso, kunesisekelo esithile abantu okudingeka basisebenzise ukuze baphile. Uma iholo labantu liwela ngaphansi kwalesi sisekelo, abantu ngeke besakwazi ukongela ikusasa, futhi kuzophoqa abantu besigaba esimaphakathi (kanye nabampofu abakwazi ukuthola isikweletu) ukuthi baboleke ngaphezu kwamandla abo ukuze bazame ukunakekela izidingo zabo eziyisisekelo zokusebenzisa imali. .

Ingozi ukuthi uma izimali zabantu abasezingeni eliphakathi sezifinyelele kuleli qophelo, noma yikuphi ukuwohloka komnotho okungazelelwe kungaba yingozi enkulu. Abantu ngeke babe nemali yokulondoloza abazobuyela kuyo uma belahlekelwa imisebenzi, futhi amabhange ngeke aboleke imali mahhala kulabo abadinga ukukhokha irenti. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuwohloka okuncane komnotho obekungaba umzabalazo omnene emashumini amabili noma amathathu edlule kungase kubangele inkinga enkulu namuhla (cue flashback to 2008-9).

Umthelela womphakathi wokungalingani kwemali engenayo

Nakuba imiphumela yezomnotho yokungalingani kweholo ingase isabise, umphumela olimazayo ongaba nawo emphakathini ungase ube mubi kakhulu. Isibonelo salokhu ukuncipha kokuhamba kwemali engenayo.

Njengoba isibalo kanye nezinga lemisebenzi lincipha, ukuhamba kwemali kuncipha nakho, okwenza kube nzima kubantu ngabanye kanye nezingane zabo ukweqa isikhungo sezomnotho nesomphakathi abazalelwa kuso. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kunamandla okuqinisa uhlaka lwenhlalo emphakathini, lapho abacebile befana nezicukuthwane zasendulo zaseYurophu, nalapho amathuba empilo yabantu enqunywa kakhulu ifa labo kunamathalente abo noma impumelelo yabo yobungcweti.

Uma kubhekwa ngisho nesikhathi, lokhu kuhlukana komphakathi kungase kube okuphathekayo lapho abacebile beqhelelana nabampofu ngemuva kwemiphakathi engenamasango kanye nabezokuphepha ezizimele. Lokhu-ke kungaholela ekwehlukaneni ngokwengqondo lapho abacebile beqala ukuzwa uzwela nokuqonda okuncane ngabampofu, abanye bekholelwa ukuthi bangcono ngokwemvelo kunabo. Kusukela kamuva, lesi senzakalo sakamuva sesibonakala ngokwesiko ngokwenyuka kwegama elibi elithi 'ilungelo.' Leli gama lisebenza ekutheni izingane ezikhuliswe imindeni ehola kakhulu zikwazi kanjani ukufinyelela okwengeziwe esikoleni esingcono kanye namanethiwekhi omphakathi akhethekile azivumela ukuthi ziphumelele kamuva ekuphileni.

Kodwa ake sijule.

Njengoba izinga lokungasebenzi kanye nezinga lokungasebenzi likhula phakathi kwabakaki abahola kancane:

Uzokwenzani umphakathi ngezigidi zabesilisa nabesifazane abasasebenza abazithola bebalulekile emsebenzini?
Sizopholisa kanjani zonke izandla ezingasebenzi futhi eziphelelwe ithemba ezingase zigqugquzeleke ukuba ziphendukele emisebenzini engafanele ukuze bathole imali futhi bazihloniphe?
Abazali nezingane zabo esezikhulile bayoyithola kanjani imfundo yangemva kwesekondari—ithuluzi elibalulekile lokuhlala benokuncintisana emakethe yezemisebenzi yanamuhla?

Ngokombono ongokomlando, izinga eliphezulu lobumpofu liholela ekwandeni kwamazinga okushiya isikole, izinga lokukhulelwa kwentsha, ngisho nokukhuluphala ngokweqile. Okubi nakakhulu, ngezikhathi zokucindezeleka kwezomnotho, abantu babuyela emuzweni wokucwasa ngokwezizwe, lapho bethola khona ukusekelwa abantu 'abanjengabo.' Lokhu kungasho ukudonselana nomndeni, amasiko, ezenkolo, noma amabhondi enhlangano (isib. izinyunyana noma amaqembu ezigelekeqe) ngezindleko zawo wonke umuntu.

Ukuze uqonde ukuthi kungani lobu buhlanga buyingozi kangaka, into ebalulekile okufanele ikhunjulwe ukuthi ukungalingani, okuhlanganisa ukungalingani kwemali engenayo, kuyingxenye yemvelo yokuphila, futhi kwezinye izimo kunenzuzo ukukhuthaza ukukhula nokuncintisana okunempilo phakathi kwabantu nezinkampani. Kodwa-ke, ukwamukelwa komphakathi kokungalingani kuqala ukuwa lapho abantu beqala ukuphelelwa ithemba ngekhono labo lokuncintisana ngokufanele, ekhonweni labo lokukhuphuka ileli lempumelelo eduze komakhelwane wabo. Ngaphandle kwesanqante sokuhamba komphakathi (imali engenayo), abantu baqala ukuzwa sengathi ama-chips ahlanganiswe ngokumelene nabo, ukuthi uhlelo luqinisiwe, ukuthi kukhona abantu abasebenza ngokuzikhandla ngokumelene nezithakazelo zabo. Ngokomlando, lezi zinhlobo zemizwa ziholela emigwaqweni emnyama kakhulu.

Ukuwa kwezepolitiki kokungalingani kwemali engenayo

Ngokombono wezepolitiki, inkohlakalo engakhiqizwa ukungalingani kwengcebo ibhalwe kahle emlandweni. Lapho ingcebo igxila ezandleni zabambalwa kakhulu, labo abambalwa ekugcineni bathola amandla angaphezu kwamaqembu ezombusazwe. Osopolitiki baphendukela kwabacebile ukuze bathole uxhaso, kanti abacebile baphendukela kosopolitiki ukuze bathole umusa.

Ngokusobala, lokhu kusebenzelana kwangemuva akulungile, akunasimilo, futhi ezimeni eziningi, akukho emthethweni. Kodwa ngokuvamile, umphakathi uye wakubekezelela lokhu kuxhawulana okuyimfihlo nohlobo lokunganaki okuphoxekile. Nokho, izihlabathi zibonakala zinyakaza ngaphansi kwezinyawo zethu.

Njengoba kuphawuliwe esigabeni esandulele, izikhathi zokuntenga komnotho okudlulele kanye nokuhamba kancane kweholo kungaholela abavoti ukuba bazizwe besengozini futhi beyizisulu.

Yilapho i-populism iqhubeka khona imashi.

Lapho bebhekene nokuncipha kwamathuba omnotho kubantu abaningi, lezo zixuku zizofuna izixazululo ezinqala zokubhekana nesimo esinzima sezomnotho—bazovotela abangenele ukhetho lwezepolitiki abathembisa izinyathelo ezisheshayo, ezikhathini eziningi ezinezixazululo ezeqisayo.

Isibonelo se-kneejerk izazi-mlando eziningi ezisisebenzisayo lapho zichaza lawa maslayidi angama-cyclical abe yi-populism ukukhuphuka kobuNazi. Ngemva kweMpi Yezwe II, Amabutho Ahlangene abeka ubunzima obukhulu bezomnotho kubantu baseJalimane ukuze akhiphe izinxephezelo zawo wonke umonakalo owadalwa phakathi nempi. Ngeshwa, ukubuyiselwa okunzima kuzoshiya iningi lamaJalimane ebuphofini obudlulele, okungenzeka kube nezizukulwane ngezizukulwane-lokho kwaze kwavela usopolitiki (uHitler) ethembisa ukuqeda konke ukulungiswa, ukwakha kabusha ukuziqhenya kwamaJalimane, futhi akhe kabusha iJalimane ngokwayo. Sonke siyazi ukuthi lokho kwenzeka kanjani.

Inselele esibhekene nayo namuhla (2017) ukuthi izimo eziningi zezomnotho amaJalimane aphoqeleka ukuba azibekezelele ngemva kweWWI manje kancane kancane zizwakala emazweni amaningi emhlabeni jikelele. Njengomphumela walokho, sibona ukuvela kabusha komhlaba kosopolitiki abangosaziwayo namaqembu akhethwa ukuthi athathe izintambo kulo lonke elaseYurophu, e-Asia, kanye, yebo, naseMelika. Nakuba kungekho noyedwa kulaba baholi bosuku lwanamuhla osondelene kabi njengoHitler kanye neqembu lamaNazi, bonke bayazuza ngokuphakamisa izisombululo ezidlulele ezindabeni eziyinkimbinkimbi, ezihlelekile abantu abaningi abafisa ukuzilungisa.

Ngeshwa, izizathu ezishiwo ngaphambilini zokungalingani kweholo zizoba zimbi kakhulu emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi i-populism ilapha ukuhlala. Okubi nakakhulu, kusho ukuthi uhlelo lwethu lwezomnotho lwangomuso lumiselwe ukuphazanyiswa osopolitiki abazothatha izinqumo ezicasulwe yintukuthelo yomphakathi kunobuhlakani bezomnotho.

… Ngasohlangothini olukhanyayo, okungenani zonke lezi zindaba ezimbi zizokwenza lonke lolu chungechunge lwekusasa Lomnotho lube mnandi kakhulu. Izixhumanisi ezahlukweni ezilandelayo zingezansi. Jabulela!