Information warfare: The battle for people’s opinions

• Author:
• Author name

  Quantumrun Foresight
• October 28, 2022

Insight summary

Information warfare has become increasingly significant for global governments and military organizations. This tactic has many motivations, including controlling conflict narratives or influencing public opinions. The long-term implications of this trend may include increased cold war between countries and artificial intelligence (AI) being used to create deepfake content.

Information warfare context

Information warfare has a primary goal of manipulating people’s sentiments and worldviews. State-run information operations are deliberate attempts to sway someone’s behavior or thoughts by utilizing the country’s resources (military, economic, diplomatic, and informational). These methods can include creating false organizations within an opponent’s political system to sow doubts or produce media content designed to influence the attitudes of a population.

Another tactic is smearing political dissidents to discredit them. According to media and research company Freedom House, in 2017, information operations played a role in shaping elections in at least 18 countries. The increasing use of sophisticated communications to manipulate public opinion has become a matter of national security.

Information warfare may worsen as more people acquire access to the Internet. According to the World Economic Forum’s “The Global Risks Report 2020,” over 50 percent of the 7.7 billion global population is online, with one million logging onto the Internet for the first time daily. In addition, two-thirds of the worldwide population has a smartphone.

This development provides many opportunities for information warfare agents to flood content with misleading or incomplete data. Some argue that employing Internet tools for disinformation campaigns is a novel type of “hybrid warfare.” The distinction between traditional warfare tactics like bombs and missiles is supplemented with non-physical methods used to target thoughts and emotions. This type of reduced physicality in war requires a unique level of strategizing and technological investments.

Disruptive impact

China's approach to disseminating pro-Chinese narratives and countering American perspectives exemplifies how digital platforms can be leveraged for geopolitical influence. This trend in information warfare not only affects diplomatic relations but also shapes public opinion globally. The resulting tension and distrust between nations, as seen in the mutual accusations of disinformation between China and the US, indicate a need for more transparent and reliable channels of international communication.

In a similar vein, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further underscored the role of social media in modern conflicts. Platforms like TikTok, which experienced a dramatic surge in viewership related to the Ukraine crisis, have become critical in both disseminating information and influencing public perception. The real-time sharing of videos showcasing Ukrainian defense strategies exemplifies how social media can provide immediate insights into unfolding events, bypassing traditional news sources. However, the decision of TikTok to restrict Russian content raises questions about the impartiality and ethical responsibilities of social media platforms in conflict situations.

These instances of information warfare suggest that organizations may need to adapt to a landscape where digital platforms play a pivotal role in shaping geopolitical narratives. For individuals, this means developing critical thinking skills to discern credible information. Companies, especially in the tech sector, may need to navigate complex ethical and political landscapes when managing content. Meanwhile, governments might explore the development of regulations and international agreements to ensure fair use of digital platforms in international relations. 

Implications of information warfare

Wider implications of information warfare may include: 

• A rise in global friction over the spread of disinformation and misleading information in international conflicts. This may lead to an increase in cold wars between countries. 
• An increase in political elections worldwide being heavily influenced by information warfare agents spreading fake news and deepfake content.
• Artificial intelligence and machine learning increasingly used to create deepfake articles and videos targeted at opposing political parties and nation-states.
• Some governments establishing anti-disinformation agencies. However, some nations may continue using information warfare for their interests.
• Agencies and organizations creating education campaigns against fake news/misinformation for the public, including officially incorporating programs into schools and universities.
• Businesses adopting more stringent cybersecurity measures to protect against information warfare, leading to increased operational costs and changes in digital strategies.
• Consumers becoming more skeptical of online content, driving demand for verified and trustworthy information sources.
• Enhanced international collaborations among governments for cyber defense initiatives, leading to new global cybersecurity standards and treaties.

Questions to consider

• What are some examples of information campaigns you have recently experienced?
• How do you protect yourself from information warfare?