Space Force: The new frontier for an arms race?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• April 26, 2023

The US Space Force, established as an independent branch of the US military in 2019, aims to protect American interests in space and ensure stability in the domain. The creation of this organization has been seen as a response to increasing concerns about the militarization of space and potential threats to American satellites and other space-based assets. However, some experts worry that the establishment of the Space Force could trigger an arms race, leading to a more dangerous security environment.

Space Force context

Long before it became one of the main rallying points of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign (complete with merchandise), the idea of setting up a separate military branch focusing on managing satellites for ground combat strategy and defense had already been conceptualized in the 1990s. In 2001, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld revisited the idea, and eventually, the Senate gave its bipartisan support. In December 2019, the Space Force was signed into law. 

There are many misconceptions about the Space Force. Some people confuse it with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which mainly focuses on space research, and the Space Command, which does recruit staff from the Space Force but also from across all military branches. Ultimately, the main goal of the 16,000-strong Space Force personnel (called guardians) is to manage more than 2,500 active satellites.

This organization focuses on space operations, allowing the US to maintain its strategic advantage in the domain. With the growing importance of satellites to military operations, having a separate branch of the military dedicated to space operations will allow the US to respond effectively to emerging threats. Additionally, the Space Force is well-positioned to take advantage of technological innovations and advancements in space technology. 

Disruptive impact

The Joe Biden administration (US) has already expressed continued support for the Space Force (2021) and recognizes its significance in modern defense. One primary purpose of the Space Force is to alert US bases globally (within seconds) of any missile launch attack through the sea, air, or land. It can also track or disable any space debris (including rocket boosters and other space junk) that might hinder future spacecraft launches. GPS technologies used in nearly all industries, such as banking and manufacturing, relies heavily on these satellites.

However, the US is not the only country interested in establishing a space command system. China and Russia, two other nations aggressively releasing new satellites, have been getting creative in their newer, more disruptive models. Examples are China’s kidnapper satellites equipped with arms that can snatch satellites out of orbit and Russia’s kamikaze versions that can ram and destroy other satellites. According to Chief of Space Operations John Raymond, the protocol is always to reach out and dispel any tension diplomatically rather than engage in space war. However, he reiterated that the ultimate goal of the Space Force is to “protect and defend.” 

As of 2022, only the US and China have independent Space Forces. Meanwhile, Russia, France, Iran, and Spain have joint Air and Space Forces. And several dozen countries collaborate in joint and multinational space commands. 

Implications of the Space Force

Wider implications of the Space Force may include:

• More nations participating in satellite launches, which can result in enhanced cooperation for commercial, climate monitoring, and humanitarian initiatives. 
• An inter-governmental and cross-organizational council being formed to regulate, monitor, and enforce “rules” in space.
• A space arms race that can result in more orbital junk and debris, prompting new multinational discussions on space safety and sustainability.
• The deployment of military assets and personnel in space increasing the risk of conflict.
• The development of new space technologies and infrastructure that can be adopted by the private sector to create new opportunities for innovation and job growth.
• The establishment of new training programs specifically for space asset management and operations.

Questions to consider

• Do you think a national Space Force is necessary?
• How might governments come together to take advantage of space technology and cooperation?