Space sustainability: New international agreement addresses space junk, aims for space sustainability

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• March 20, 2022

Insight summary

The surge in satellite launches, coupled with the lingering presence of defunct objects in orbit, has led to a concerning accumulation of space debris, threatening future space activities. In response, the Space Sustainability Rating (SSR) system has been developed to encourage responsible practices in space exploration, with implications for spacecraft operators, governments, and the commercial space industry. This significant step aims to minimize the risk of collisions, foster competitive sustainability, and align space activities with global sustainability goals, potentially shaping the future of space governance and industry practices.

Space sustainability context

A steady stream of satellites, rockets, and cargo ships have been and are still being launched into the Earth’s orbit. Many of these objects remain in orbit even when they malfunction, break or are no longer in use. As a result, millions of pieces of space junk circulate our planet, traveling at tens of thousands of miles per hour, increasing the risk of collisions with orbiting space vehicles and future satellites to be launched.

Declining launch costs, an evolution in satellite and rocket size and sophistication, and an increase in applications for space-based infrastructure have led to a rise in satellite launches, many of them by new space companies and nations that were not involved in space exploration prior to 2000. The commercial space industry, in particular, is planning to increase the number of active satellites to 30-40,000, far beyond the 4,000 already in orbit. This rapid growth is in preparation for the space sector’s expanding role in telecommunications, remote sensing, space science, space manufacturing and national security.

Ultimately, with increasing numbers of satellites being launched every year contributes to the long-term risk of catastrophe often referred to as the Kessler syndrome, a theoretical scenario where the density of space infrastructure and debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade effect where each collision generates ever more space debris, thereby further increasing the likelihood of collisions. Over time, enough debris may orbit the Earth that it could make future space launches dangerous and could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges economically impractical for generations.

Disruptive impact 

The development of the Space Sustainability Rating (SSR) system marks a significant step in managing the challenges of space exploration and utilization. By introducing a certification process, the SSR encourages spacecraft operators, launch service providers, and satellite manufacturers to adopt responsible practices. This trend can enhance the long-term viability of space missions by reducing the risk of collisions and minimizing space debris.

The SSR system also has the potential to influence the way space-related businesses operate. By setting clear standards for sustainability, it may lead to a shift in industry practices, where companies prioritize responsible space operations. This could foster a competitive environment where businesses strive to achieve higher levels of certification, leading to the development of new technologies and methods to enhance sustainability. In turn, this may lead to more efficient use of resources and a reduction in costs, benefiting both the industry and consumers.

For governments, the SSR offers a framework to regulate and oversee space activities in a way that aligns with global sustainability goals. By adopting and enforcing these standards, governments can ensure that space exploration and commercial activities are conducted responsibly. This trend may also foster international collaboration, as countries work together to develop and adhere to shared standards. Such cooperation can lead to a more harmonized approach to space governance.

Implications of space sustainability

Wider implications of space sustainability may include:

• Further developing international standards and regulatory bodies to oversee space debris reduction, leading to safeguarded current and future space missions.
• The need for spacecraft operators, launch service providers, and satellite manufacturers to prove that their planned missions are sustainable before they are allowed to undertake a mission, leading to a more responsible approach to space exploration.
• A new basis for operators to compete on for contracts; they may change their practices and compete on sustainability to secure contracts, leading to a shift in industry priorities.
• The establishment of a universal rating system for space missions, leading to a standardized global approach that ensures consistency and fairness in the evaluation of sustainability practices.
• The creation of new job opportunities in space sustainability research, monitoring, and compliance.
• The potential increase in the cost of space missions due to the implementation of sustainability measures, leading to a reevaluation of budgeting and funding strategies by governments and private entities.
• The fostering of new technological advancements focused on sustainability, leading to the development of tools and methods that minimize environmental impact both in space and on Earth.
• The potential for the SSR system to become a model for other industries, leading to a broader application of sustainability ratings and certifications across various sectors.
• A shift in consumer perception and demand towards supporting space companies that adhere to sustainability standards, leading to a more conscious and responsible approach to space-related products and services.
• The possibility of political tensions arising from differing interpretations or compliance with international sustainability standards, leading to a need for diplomatic negotiations and agreements to ensure harmonized implementation.

Questions to consider

• What would happen if space sustainability initiatives were not created and acted upon?
• Should there be an international agreement to remove a certain number of space debris from orbit each year?