Space taxis: The slow democratization of space travel?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• April 8, 2022

Insight summary

The dawn of commercial space travel, marked by private space companies launching civilian crew members, has opened doors to a new luxury market and the potential for long-term settlement on the moon and Mars. This trend can reshape various aspects of society, from creating opportunities for high-end services to posing challenges in social inequality, environmental sustainability, legal complexities, and labor dynamics. The implications of space taxis extend beyond tourism, influencing international collaboration, governance structures, technological advancements, and demographic shifts.

Space taxi context

In 2021, private space companies like Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and SpaceX all launched commercial space flights that included civilian crew members. In particular, September 2021 saw SpaceX launch the Inspiration4, a SpaceX rocket that carried an all-civilian crew into space. The rocket took off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida in the US and spent three days in orbit before landing. These are the early days of civilian space travel.

The crew aboard the Inspiration4 rocket went through medical testing and spent six months training in simulations and zero gravity chambers, including training inside a SpaceX Dragon capsule. The launch carried people and scientific cargo for research purposes while simultaneously raising money for a research hospital. Beyond these characteristics, this orbital flight was genuinely unique for breaking through several barriers.   

Meanwhile, the mostly civilian crews of the Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic space flights required significantly less training as both of those flights lasted under an hour each. Future space tourism and civilian space travel will likely resemble these latter types of flights, both in terms of duration and passenger training requirements. As the safety metrics for these rocket flights are proven out over the long term, this form of travel will experience a surge of popularity that will prove the economic viability of commercial space flights and fund their development over the long term.

Disruptive impact

SpaceX's Inspiration4 orbited at 360 miles above the Earth's surface, 100 miles higher than the International Space Station, which orbits at 250 miles and exceeding the distances orbited by counterpart launch systems such as Virgin Galactic (50 miles) and Blue Origin (66 miles). The success of SpaceX's Inspiration4 launch has influenced other private aerospace companies to plan a trip to the International Space Station in late 2022, while some billionaires plan to take selected artists to the moon by 2023.

SpaceX was established in the same period as when NASA began to consider the possibility of commercial space travel. During the 2010s, NASA invested USD $6 billion in private companies to advance space technologies, further commercialize the space industry, and eventually enable everyday people to access space. The early 2020s saw these investments pay dividends as US space companies proved successful in dramatically reducing the costs of rocket launches, thereby making the economics of a range of new space innovations attainable to fledgling space startups.

And by the 2030s, entire ecosystems of space-related startups and industries will emerge from the low-cost launch foundations spurred by these early private space innovators. However, early and obvious use cases include commercial space tourism trips that orbit the Earth, as well as point-to-point rocket travel that can transport individuals anywhere in the world in under an hour.

Implications of space taxis

The wider implications of space taxis may include: 

• Early space tourism flights with tickets costing up to USD $500,000 and seat auctions up to USD $28 million, leading to a new luxury market that caters exclusively to the wealthy, creating opportunities for high-end services and experiences.
• The long-term settlement of the moon and Mars, leading to the establishment of new communities and societies that will require governance, infrastructure, and social systems.
• Early space rocketry companies transitioning into logistical services or platforms for an ever-increasing diversity of niche space companies that seek to transport their assets into space, leading to the creation of new business models and partnerships that will drive growth in the space industry.
• The commercialization of space travel remaining economical only to the upper classes for several more decades, leading to social inequality and potential unrest as space tourism becomes a symbol of economic disparity.
• The increased demand for space travel and the long-term settlement of other planets, leading to potential environmental challenges on Earth, such as increased energy consumption and waste production, requiring new regulations and sustainable practices.
• The development of space settlements and commercial space travel, leading to complex legal and political challenges that will require new international agreements, regulations, and governance structures to manage interstellar rights and responsibilities.
• The growth of space tourism and commercial space activities, leading to potential labor issues such as the need for specialized training, potential job displacement in traditional industries, and the creation of new employment opportunities in space-related fields.
• The increased commercial activities in space, leading to potential demographic shifts as people move to space settlements, which may impact population distribution on Earth and create new societal dynamics in space communities.

Questions to consider

• Space travel is cheaper today than at any time in history. However, what must be done to make commercial space flights even more accessible, especially for the civilian middle and upper-classes? 
• If offered the opportunity to travel into space, would you accept?