Urban rising heat: Sizzling streets

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• September 26, 2024

Insight summary

Rising urban temperatures, driven by the heat island effect, have increased public health risks and infrastructure challenges. Efforts to combat this include advanced heat mapping, green infrastructure, and energy-efficient cooling technologies. As extreme heat worsens, organizations may face growing pressure to adapt, with shifts in urban design, labor practices, and environmental policies becoming essential.

Urban rising heat context

Urban heat is a growing issue in cities worldwide, driven primarily by the urban heat island effect, where cities experience higher temperatures than their rural surroundings. This phenomenon occurs due to the extensive use of heat-absorbing materials like asphalt and concrete, combined with reduced green spaces that would naturally cool the air. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that large cities can experience annual mean air temperatures up to 3°C higher than surrounding areas, with even greater differences at night. A notable example is the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, where urban areas saw significant infrastructure damage, including buckled roads and overheated bridges. 

Developments have focused on both monitoring and mitigating the effects of urban heat islands. Traditional ground-based temperature monitoring has been enhanced by satellite technology, allowing for more detailed mapping of urban heat variations. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Urban Heat Mapping Campaigns use distributed monitor networks to track temperature and humidity across cities to aid in resilience planning. Cities are taking proactive measures, with initiatives like planting trees, installing cool roofs, and using reflective pavements. 

The consequences of urban heat islands significantly affect public health and energy systems. Heat islands worsen extreme heat events, disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities, such as low-income populations and historically redlined areas. A 2023 study across 93 European cities estimated that heat islands contribute to around 6,700 premature deaths annually. Meanwhile, it's estimated that 10 percent of urban households in the US lack access to air conditioning, and an even larger proportion struggles with paying their energy bills.

Disruptive impact

Households could face higher energy costs as they rely more on air conditioning, especially in hotter regions. People without access to cooling systems may experience heightened health risks during heat waves. More cities may promote the use of cool roofs or encourage planting more trees, leading to lifestyle adjustments such as seeking shaded areas during peak heat hours. Individuals may also reconsider living in densely built urban areas, prioritizing places with better cooling infrastructure or access to green spaces.

Companies may invest in energy-efficient technologies to reduce cooling costs and keep their facilities functional during extreme heat events. For example, real estate developers may focus on constructing buildings with sustainable designs, including reflective materials or green roofs, to attract environmentally conscious consumers. In addition, retailers might see demand for cooling products, such as air conditioning units and energy-efficient appliances, rise significantly in hotter regions. Finally, businesses in outdoor industries, such as agriculture or construction, may need to adjust their work schedules to avoid peak heat hours and prevent productivity losses.

Meanwhile, governments may face pressure to develop policies addressing urban heat and its long-term effects. Investments in green infrastructure, like tree planting and creating more parks, may become critical to cooling cities and protecting public health. Policymakers may also consider zoning changes that mandate heat-reducing building materials or impose limits on the density of development in urban cores. Funding for energy assistance programs could increase to ensure that vulnerable populations can maintain cooling during extreme weather conditions.

Implications of urban rising heat

Wider implications of urban rising heat may include: 

• The expansion of urban cooling centers leading to greater access to public health services during extreme heat events.
• New zoning regulations requiring green roofs and reflective materials, leading to a shift in urban design standards.
• Increased demand for energy-efficient cooling systems driving the growth of eco-friendly technology startups.
• A rise in urban-to-rural migration as people seek more livable environments, altering demographic patterns and rural development.
• The construction industry adopting heat-reducing materials in buildings, leading to changes in supply chains and material sourcing.
• Governments incentivizing green infrastructure projects, resulting in more public funding for urban reforestation and water management.
• Labor laws adjusting to protect outdoor workers from extreme heat, leading to shorter workdays or alternative scheduling.
• Higher energy costs during extreme heat leading to a greater emphasis on renewable energy sources in both residential and commercial sectors.
• Political pressure on local governments to address rising heat, leading to new environmental justice initiatives focused on vulnerable communities.
• Technological advances in heat-resistant materials and wearable cooling devices leading to the commercialization of personal cooling products.

Questions to consider

• How could rising urban temperatures impact how you plan your daily activities or commute in the future?
• What changes could your neighborhood make to create cooler, more livable outdoor spaces?