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Izilawuli zokuthekelisa zamazwe amaningi: Impi yokuhweba

Ukuncintisana okwandayo phakathi kwe-US ne-China kuholele egagasini elisha lokulawula ukuthekelisa okungase kubhebhethekise ukungezwani kwezwe.

About the Author:
Igama lomlobi
I-Quantumrun Foresight
August 4, 2023

Amaphuzu avelele okuqonda

I-Bureau of Industry and Security yoMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US (i-BIS) yabeka izinqubomgomo ezintsha zokulawula ukuthekelisa (2023) ukuze zikhawulele ukufinyelela kwe-China kumadivayisi athile obuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu be-semiconductor. Naphezu kokulahlekelwa kwezimali kwezinkampani zase-US, lezi zilawuli zethemba ukuthi zizokwamukelwa ngabalingani. Kodwa-ke, imithelela yesikhathi eside engaba khona ihlanganisa ukukhula komnotho okuvimbelwe emikhakheni ethile, ukwanda kwezingxabano zezombusazwe, iziyaluyalu zomphakathi ngenxa yokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi, ukunciphisa ukusakazeka kobuchwepheshe emhlabeni wonke, kanye nesidingo esikhulayo sokuqeqeshwa kabusha kwabasebenzi.

Umongo wokulawula ukuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe

Izilawuli zokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe ezithuthukiswe imifelandawonye yamazwe zisebenza ngokusemthethweni ukulawula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kobuchwepheshe obuthile ukuze kuzuze okwabiwe. Kodwa-ke, amadlelandawonye akhona akhombisa ukwehlukana okukhulayo, ikakhulukazi mayelana nomkhakha we-semiconductor waseChina. Njengoba ukuncintisana kwamasu phakathi kwe-US ne-China kudlondlobala, i-Bureau of Industry and Security yoMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US (BIS) yethule izinqubomgomo ezintsha zokulawula ukuthekelisa eziklanyelwe ukuvimbela ukufinyelela kwe-China, ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokukhiqizwa, amadivaysi athile obuchwepheshe obuphezulu asetshenziswa ku-semiconductor. I-AI, i-supercomputing, nezicelo zokuvikela.

Lesi sinyathelo sakha ushintsho olubalulekile kunqubomgomo yase-US, phambilini eyayikhululekile ekuhwebeni. Izinqubomgomo ezintsha, ezaqalwa ngo-Okthoba 2022, zivimbela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemishini yokukhiqiza i-semiconductor engenza amafemu aseShayina akwazi ukukhiqiza ama-semiconductors athuthukile angaphansi kwama-nanometer ayi-14. I-BIS inezinye izinhlelo, iphakamisa ukuthi izinkampani zisungule ezazo izilawuli zokuthumela ngaphandle kwemishini ye-semiconductor, izinto zokwakha, kanye nama-chips ukuze zethule ukuma okuhlangene ngokumelene ne-China.

Imibiko yabezindaba kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaJanuwari 2023 iphakamise ukuthi iJapan neNetherlands base bekulungele ukujoyina i-US ekubekeni imingcele yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-semiconductor eChina. NgoFebhuwari 2023, inhlangano eyinhloko yohwebo yezinkampani zaseShayina ze-semiconductor, i-China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA), yakhipha isitatimende esisemthethweni igxeka lezi zenzo. Kwathi ngoMashi 2023, uhulumeni waseDashi wathatha isinyathelo sokuqala esiwujuqu ngokumemezela imikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwezinhlelo ezithuthukisiwe zokucwiliswa kwe-ultraviolet (DUV) e-China.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Lezi zilawuli zokuthumela ngaphandle azinayo imiphumela yezezimali kulabo abazenzayo. Sekuvele kukhona ukulahlekelwa kwebhizinisi kwemishini ye-semiconductor yase-US kanye nezinkampani zezinto ezibonakalayo. Amasheya e-Applied Materials, i-KLA, kanye ne-Lam Research wonke abone ukwehla kwamaphesenti angu-18 kusukela kwethulwa lezi zilawuli. Ikakhulukazi, I-Applied Materials yehlise isibikezelo sayo sokuthengisa sekota cishe ngezigidi ezingu-USD $400, okuchaza lokhu kulungiswa emithethweni ye-BIS. Lawa mabhizinisi aveze ukuthi ukulahleka kwemali okulindelekile kungabeka engcupheni amandla awo esikhathi eside okuxhasa ucwaningo nentuthuko edingekayo ukuze aqhubeke nokuncintisana kwawo.

Naphezu kwezinselelo zomlando nokuxhumana kwezizwe ngezizwe ezilawulweni zokuthekelisa, uMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US usanethemba lokuthi ozakwabo bazosebenzisa imikhawulo efanayo. Nakuba izinkampani zaseShayina zingase zizame ukuthuthukisa izinguqulo zazo zobuchwepheshe base-US, ukuhola kobuchwepheshe okubalulekile kanye namaketanga okuhlinzeka okuyinkimbinkimbi kwenza lo msebenzi ube inselele kakhulu.

Ochwepheshe bacabanga ukuthi i-US inesandla esikhulu ekuholeni lezi zilawuli zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngokumelene neChina. Uma i-US yehluleka ukuthola ukusekelwa abanye abakhiqizi abakhulu, izilawuli zokuthumela ngaphandle zingalimaza izinkampani zase-US zingahlosile kuyilapho zivimbe kafushane nje umklamo othuthukisiwe we-chip wase-China namakhono okukhiqiza. Kodwa-ke, izenzo zabaphathi be-Biden kuze kube manje zisho ukuqonda kwalezi zingibe ezingaba khona kanye nendlela esheshayo yokuvikela ukwesekwa nokubambelela kulelisu. Nakuba ukusebenzisa leli su kungase kuhilele izinselele, ukuqaliswa kwalo ngempumelelo kungase kubonakale kunenzuzo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi futhi kusungule umbono omusha wokubambisana okuphumelelayo mayelana nokukhathazeka ngokuphepha.

Imithelela yokulawula ukuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe

Imithelela ebanzi yokulawula ukuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe ingase ihlanganise:

Iphazamise ukukhula komnotho kweminye imikhakha, ikakhulukazi leyo ethembele ekuthengisweni kwezimpahla ezilawulwayo noma ubuchwepheshe. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lezi zingqinamba zingaholela ekushintsheni kwesakhiwo emnothweni njengoba amabhizinisi ejwayela futhi ehlukahluka kwezinye imikhakha.
Ukushuba kwesimo sezepolitiki ngaphakathi nangaphandle. Ngaphakathi, imikhakha ethintwa ukulawulwa ingase ifake ingcindezi kohulumeni babo ukuthi baxoxisane ngemibandela evuna kakhudlwana. Emazweni ngamazwe, ukungaboni ngaso linye mayelana nokuphoqelela noma ukwephulwa kwesivumelwano kungase kuphazamise ubudlelwano.
Ukulahleka kwemisebenzi kanye nezinxushunxushu emphakathini, ikakhulukazi ezifundeni ezincike kakhulu kulezi zimboni. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kungase kubhebhethekise ukungalingani kwezenhlalo nezomnotho.
Izilawuli zokuthekelisa ezimpahleni zobuchwepheshe obuphambili noma ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe obubambezela ukusabalala kobuchwepheshe emhlabeni wonke, buthiya ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe emazweni athile. Kodwa-ke, kungase kugqugquzele ukuqanjwa kabusha kwasekhaya uma izinkampani zitshala imali ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukisweni ukuze zidlule ubuchwepheshe bangaphandle obulawulwayo.
Ukulawulwa kohwebo lomhlaba wonke ngezinto noma ubuchwepheshe obulimaza imvelo. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kungaholela ezinzuzweni ezinkulu zemvelo, njengokuncipha kokungcoliswa kwemvelo kanye nokulondolozwa okungcono kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo.
Ukuvinjelwa kwezikhali ezikhiqizwe ngobuningi kanye nobuchwepheshe obukabili (obunakho kokubili ukusetshenziswa kwezempi nezempi). Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izilawuli ezisebenzayo zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe zingathuthukisa ukuphepha komhlaba wonke. Kodwa-ke, uma amazwe athile ezizwa eqondiswe ngokungafanele noma ekhawulelwe, kungase kubangele ukuhlehla noma ukwanda kwemisebenzi yomshoshaphansi ukuze kweqe izilawuli.