Climate change flooding: A looming cause of future climate refugees

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• December 3, 2021

Insight summary

Extreme rainfalls, driven by climate change-induced water cycles, have intensified globally. Displacement, resource competition, and mental health issues are among the social impacts, while businesses face losses and reputational risks. Governments need to address immediate impacts and invest in flood protection infrastructure while dealing with challenges like migration, financial strains, and overburdened emergency services. 

Climate change flooding context 

Weather scientists point to extreme, climate change-induced water cycles as the cause for the increase in intense rainfalls experienced globally during the 2010s. The water cycle is a term that describes the movement of water from rain and snowfall to moisture in the ground and its evaporation through water bodies. The cycle intensifies because rising temperatures (re climate change) allow the air to retain more moisture, stimulating rainfalls and extreme storm events. 

Rising global temperatures also cause the seas to warm and expand—this combined with heavy rain events is causing sea levels to rise, likewise increasing the chances of flooding, extreme storms, and infrastructure failure. For example, torrential rain is becoming an increasing threat to China’s vast network of dams which are critical to controlling floods in much of Southeast Asia.

There are even concerns about the safety of Three Gorges, the biggest dam in China after precipitation levels rose above flood-safe levels in 2020. On July 20, 2021, Zhengzhou city saw a year’s worth of rainfall in one day, an event that killed over three hundred people. Similarly, in November 2021, extreme rain and mudslides submerged much of Abbotsford, a town in British Columbia, Canada, into a lake, cutting off all access roads and highways to the area.

Disruptive impact 

The increased frequency and severity of floods can lead to displacement from homes, loss of property, and even loss of life. This displacement can lead to a cascade of other issues, such as increased competition for resources in areas less affected by flooding, and mental health issues related to the trauma of losing one's home and community. Moreover, the health risks associated with flooding, such as waterborne diseases and injuries, are likely to increase.

Companies with physical assets in flood-prone areas may face substantial losses, and insurance costs are likely to rise. Supply chains can be disrupted, leading to production delays and increased costs. Furthermore, businesses may face reputational risks if they are seen as unprepared for or contributing to climate change. However, there are also opportunities for businesses that can provide solutions to these challenges, such as flood defenses, water damage restoration, and climate risk consulting.

Governments also face a range of challenges and opportunities. They need to deal with the immediate impacts of flooding, such as providing emergency services and temporary housing, repairing infrastructure, and supporting affected communities. However, they have a crucial role in mitigating the long-term impacts of climate change flooding. This can involve investing in infrastructure to protect against floods, implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and supporting research into climate change and flood mitigation. Governments can also play a role in educating the public about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for them.

Implications of climate change flooding

Wider implications of climate change-induced flooding may include: 

• An increase in the number of migrants displaced by extreme weather events globally, but especially in Southeast Asia where a large percentage of the population lives in coastal cities.
• Financial strains on national and municipal governments due to increased infrastructure expenditures spent on managing natural disasters, especially in the developing world.
• A progressive overburdening of national emergency services and healthcare systems in managing the human costs of flood-related disasters.
• Increased social inequality as marginalized communities, who often have limited resources and live in flood-prone areas, bear the brunt of the impacts.
• Decreased agricultural productivity due to crop losses and soil erosion caused by flooding, leading to food shortages and increased food prices.
• Heightened political tensions and conflicts over resources, such as water and land, as competition intensifies in regions affected by climate change-induced flooding.
• Increased demand for innovative flood management technologies, such as advanced early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and efficient drainage systems.
• Disruption of livelihoods and job losses in sectors vulnerable to flooding, such as agriculture, tourism, and construction, while creating new employment opportunities in sectors related to flood resilience and adaptation.
• Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services as floodwaters damage habitats, leading to the decline of species and ecological imbalances.

Questions to consider

• How can governments fortify their infrastructure in anticipation of extreme water-based weather events?
• Are climate change-induced floods a factor significant enough to displace a substantial number of people from their homes over the coming decades?