Offensive government cyberattacks: US amplifies offensive cyber operations

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• February 22, 2022

Insight summary

In response to damaging cyberattacks, the US is shifting its approach to cybersecurity, moving from a fragmented effort to a unified, proactive stance. This change could alter international relations, with countries' influence being determined by their cyber capabilities, and businesses in critical sectors may need to invest heavily in cybersecurity measures. As the digital world expands, so does the potential for disruption, leading to societal changes, job market shifts, and environmental implications.

Offensive government cyberattacks context

After cyberattacks damaged critical US infrastructure in 2021, the US is contemplating offensive cyber operations to prevent further damage. In doing so, the US is also normalizing military cyber activities and bringing its formerly separated cybersecurity responsibilities into a unified whole. This transition will have ramifications for how the US and other countries conduct cyberwarfare.

US government cybersecurity was originally a fragmented effort, with various responsibilities spread across different departments. Further, most cyberattacks were considered to be criminal activities and thus under the jurisdiction of law enforcement. However, following multiple damaging cyberattacks that have threatened critical industries and supply chains, the consensus in the US cyber community is that these attacks pose a threat to national security.

The 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) aims to streamline and unify the US’ cyber activities. The NDAA will help the government focus more effectively on cybersecurity and standardize the US’ cyber operations playbook. In light of the reassessed threat, the US is taking a more proactive, “forward defense” stance, intending to stop cyberattacks before they happen. On its part, the United Nations (UN) has recommended certain “norms of responsible state behavior in cyberspace.” These norms are intended to protect innocent citizens from potentially wide-reaching cyberattacks.

Disruptive impact

Offensive government cyberattacks could potentially reshape the landscape of international relations. As cyberattacks become a more common tool of statecraft, they could lead to a shift in the balance of power. Countries with superior cyber capabilities may gain an upper hand, while those with weaker defenses could find themselves at a disadvantage. This development could lead to a new form of digital divide on the global stage, where the power dynamics are dictated by technological prowess rather than traditional military strength.

Moreover, businesses, particularly those in critical sectors like energy, healthcare, and finance, could become prime targets. This trend could force companies to invest heavily in cybersecurity measures, diverting resources from other areas of business. Furthermore, the threat of cyberattacks could lead to increased regulation and oversight of digital infrastructure, stifling innovation and creating a more risk-averse business environment.

As our world becomes increasingly digitized, the potential for disruption grows. Attacks on critical infrastructure could lead to widespread chaos, affecting everything from the availability of essential services to public trust in government. In the long term, this could lead to a more anxious and distrustful society, where the fear of cyberattacks influences behavior and decision-making. Governments, in turn, may be forced to take more drastic measures to ensure cybersecurity, potentially leading to debates over privacy and civil liberties.

Implications of offensive government cyberattacks

Wider implications of offensive government cyberattacks may include:

• Government agencies increasingly recruiting professionals with the experience to develop their cybersecurity divisions.
• New government funding being directed into public and private organizations within critical industries to modernize their digital assets to make less vulnerable to cyber operations.
• The increased occurrence of cyberattacks impacting state and non-state actors outside of the US being reported in the press.
• The potential for job market shifts, as the demand for cybersecurity professionals could skyrocket.
• Environmental implications as cyberattacks on critical infrastructure like power grids leading to energy waste or even environmental disasters, prompting a reevaluation of how we secure and manage these resources.
• Increased distrust by citizens against government agencies/organizations.
• Increased hacking into databases owned and managed by government agencies, escalating geopolitical tensions.

Questions to consider

• What are your thoughts on the recent US turn to offensive cyber operations? 
• Do you feel that offensive cyberattacks against hackers are an effective deterrent?
• Do you believe the UN norms can restrain states from engaging in offensive cyber operations?