5G geopolitics: When telecommunications become a weapon

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 8, 2022

Insight summary

5G technology is reshaping global communication and economies, promising faster data sharing and supporting advanced applications like the Internet of Things (IoT) and extended reality (XR). This rapid development has led to a geopolitical tug-of-war, notably between the US and China, with concerns over national security and technological dominance influencing global 5G adoption and policy-making. Emerging economies face tough choices, balancing cost-effective solutions with geopolitical alliances.

5G geopolitics context

5G networks can provide high bandwidth and lower latency to their users, allowing applications and communications to connect and share data in near real-time. The integration of 5G networks may enable novel functions for the Internet of Things (IoT), edge computing, and extended reality. Overall, these 5G networks will be the driving forces behind the Fourth Industrial Revolution—a transformational impact on national economies. 

During the initial deployment of 5G in 2019, the US launched a worldwide effort to prevent Chinese firms, notably Huawei, from supplying the infrastructure. Although Huawei possessed technical capabilities and stability, the US argued that Chinese technology would be a national security risk for those reliant on it. The US claimed that the 5G network might be used as a tool for Chinese espionage and sabotaging Western critical infrastructures. As a result, 5G and Chinese suppliers were considered a security risk.

In 2019, the US banned Huawei in its domestic market and issued an ultimatum to countries that plan to integrate 5G technology into their infrastructure networks. In 2021, the US added ZTE to the list of prohibited Chinese firms. A year later, Huawei and ZTE attempted to regain entry during the Biden administration, but the US was determined to compete with China in this sector. Several European nations have also restricted Huawei equipment, led by Germany who started investigating the company in March 2023.

Disruptive impact

A 2018 Eurasia Group whitepaper on 5G geopolitics claims that a split between China’s and America’s 5G ecosystems creates a problematic situation for emerging economies compelled to pick between a lower-cost alternative and their support for the US. This situation may be a difficult choice for countries that depend on Chinese financing through the Belt and Road Initiative or other infrastructure projects. 

Moreover, the struggle for foreign influence over evolving 5G and 6G networks in developing regions, particularly Africa and Latin America, is increasing. For many developing nations, such as the Philippines, Huawei is the most cost-effective option for rolling out 5G services. Notably, 5G networks are highly customized; therefore, changing providers midway through implementation or expansion is difficult and costly because the system would need to be replaced. Consequently, it may not be feasible if countries want to switch providers. 

Although Huawei has not been caught red-handed spying on private citizens through its network, the possibility remains a valid and great concern in the Philippines. Some of Huawei’s critics point to Chinese law, which suggests that Beijing would be able to request and gain access to private user data and other sensitive information from company executives. 

Implications of 5G geopolitics

Wider implications of 5G geopolitics may include: 

• Other developed nations siding with the US by implementing “5G Clean Path” systems that don’t interact with any China-made networks or technology.
• Intense competition between US and China for developing and deploying next-gen 6G networks, which can better support virtual and augmented reality platforms.
• Increased pressure from the US and China, including sanctions and boycotts, for countries that support their rival’s 5G technologies.
• Increased investments in network cybersecurity that can prevent surveillance and data manipulation. 
• Developing nations caught in the US and China’s crossfires, resulting in political tensions worldwide.
• The establishment of dedicated 5G technology zones in strategic locations, fostering localized tech innovation hubs and attracting global investments.
• Enhanced focus on 5G skill development and training programs, leading to a surge in specialized job creation in both developed and developing countries.
• Governments revising foreign investment policies, aiming to secure their 5G infrastructure and supply chains from external influences.

Questions to consider

• How might these tensions further develop as technology develops?
• What are the other harmful effects of this technological cold war?