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Emaphakathi Mpumalanga; Ukuwa kanye nokuqiniswa kwezwe lama-Arab: I-Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 12:40

Lesi sibikezelo esingesihle sizogxila kupolitiki yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi njengoba sihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu phakathi konyaka ka-2040 no-2050. Njengoba uqhubeka ufunda, uzobona iMpumalanga Ephakathi isesimweni esinodlame. Uzobona i-Middle East lapho i-Gulf States isebenzisa ingcebo kawoyela ukuze izame ukwakha isifunda esimeme kakhulu emhlabeni, kuyilapho ivikela ibutho lezempi elisha elibalelwa emakhulwini ezinkulungwane. Uzobona neMpumalanga Ephakathi lapho u-Israyeli ephoqeleka ukuba abe yinguqulo yakhe enolaka kakhulu ukuze avikele amaqaba ahamba emasangweni ayo.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sithombe esifinyeziwe—leli kusasa lezwe laseMpumalanga Ephakathi—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni omncane. Konke osuzokufunda kusekelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela kokubili e-United States nase-United Kingdom, uchungechunge lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezihlangene nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli ezifana no-Gwynne Dyer, a. umbhali ophambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

Awekho amanzi. Akukho Ukudla

IMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye nengxenye enkulu yeNyakatho Afrika, iyisifunda esomile kakhulu emhlabeni, amazwe amaningi aphila ngamanzi ahlanzekile angaphansi kuka-1,000 kumuntu ngamunye, ngonyaka. Lelo izinga iZizwe Ezihlangene elibhekisela kulo 'njengelibucayi.' Qhathanisa lokho namazwe amaningi ase-Europe athuthukile azuza emanzini angaphezu kuka-5,000 cubic metres wamanzi ahlanzekile ngomuntu ngamunye, ngonyaka, noma amazwe afana neCanada aphethe ngaphezu kwama-cubic metres angu-600,000.

Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2040, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzomane kwenze izinto zibe zimbi nakakhulu, zibunise imifula yayo iJordani, i-Ewufrathe, kanye neTigris ibe manzi futhi kuphoqe ukuqedwa kwemithombo yamanzi esele. Njengoba amanzi efinyelela emazingeni aphansi ngendlela eyingozi, ukulima kwendabuko kanye namadlelo esifundeni kuzoba okucishe kungenzeki. Lesi sifunda sizoba, ngazo zonke izinhloso nezinhloso, singafanelekile ukuhlala abantu abaningi. Kwamanye amazwe, lokhu kuzosho ukutshalwa kwezimali okubanzi ekususweni kukasawoti emanzini okuthuthukile kanye nobuchwepheshe bokulima bokwenziwa, kwamanye, kuzosho impi.

Ukuzijwayeza

Amazwe aseMpumalanga Ephakathi anethuba elingcono kakhulu lokuzivumelanisa nokushisa nokoma okubabazekayo okuzayo yilawo anesibalo esincane sabantu kanye nezimali ezinkulu kakhulu ezivela emalini engenayo kawoyela, okuyiSaudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, kanye ne-United Arab Emirates. Lezi zizwe zizotshala imali eningi ezitshalweni ezikhipha usawoti emanzini ukuze zondle izidingo zazo zamanzi ahlanzekile.

Njengamanje iSaudi Arabia ithola amaphesenti angu-50 amanzi ayo ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini, amaphesenti angu-40 emanzini angaphansi komhlaba, namaphesenti ayishumi emifuleni ngezintaba eziseNingizimu-ntshonalanga. Ngawo-10s, lawo ma-aquifer angavuseleleki azobe engasekho, okushiya amaSaudis enze lowo mehluko ngokukhipha usawoti emanzini okunikwa amandla uwoyela wawo ophela ngendlela eyingozi.

Mayelana nokuvikeleka kokudla, iningi lalezi zizwe litshale imali eningi ekuthengeni amapulazi e-Afrika yonkana naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuze kuthunyelwe ukudla ekhaya. Ngeshwa, ngeminyaka yawo-2040, akukho neyodwa yalezi zivumelwano zokuthengwa kwamapulazi ezohlonishwa, njengoba isivuno esiphansi sokulima kanye nenani elikhulu labantu base-Afrika kuzokwenza kube nzima ukuthi amazwe ase-Afrika akhiphe ukudla ngaphandle kwezwe ngaphandle kokulamba abantu bawo. Okuwukuphela komthengisi omkhulu wezolimo esifundeni kuzoba yiRussia, kepha ukudla kwayo kuzoba yimpahla ebizayo futhi enokuncintisana ukuthenga ezimakethe ezivulekile ngenxa yamazwe alambile ngokulinganayo eYurophu naseChina. Kunalokho, i-Gulf States izotshala imali ekwakheni amapulazi okwenziwa amile, angaphakathi nangaphansi komhlaba amakhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni.

Lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali okunzima ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini nasemapulazini amile mhlawumbe anele nje ukondla izakhamizi zaseGulf State futhi kugwenywe izibhelu nezibhelu zasekhaya ezinkulu. Uma kuhlanganiswa nezinhlelo zikahulumeni ezingase zibe khona, njengokulawulwa kwenani labantu kanye namadolobha asezingeni eliphezulu asimeme, i-Gulf States ingathola ukuphila okusimeme kakhulu. Futhi ngesikhathi esifanele, njengoba lolu shintsho luzobiza isamba semali egciniwe elondoloziwe kusukela eminyakeni yokuchuma yamanani aphezulu kawoyela. Yile mpumelelo ezokwenza ukuthi nabo babe yisisulu.

Okuhloswe ngempi

Ngeshwa, isimo esinethemba elilinganiselwe esichazwe ngenhla sithatha ukuthi i-Gulf States izoqhubeka nokujabulela ukutshalwa kwezimali okuqhubekayo kwe-US nokuvikelwa kwezempi. Kodwa-ke, ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2040, amazwe amaningi athuthukile azobe eseshintshele kwezinye izindlela zokuthutha ezisebenza ngogesi ezishibhile namandla avuselelekayo, okucekele phansi isidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke futhi kususe noma yikuphi ukuncika kuwoyela waseMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi lokhu kwehla kohlangothi lwesidingo kuzocindezela intengo kawoyela ibe umsila, kuqede imali engenayo evela kwisabelomali saseMpumalanga Ephakathi, kodwa futhi kuzokwehlisa inani lesifunda emehlweni e-US. Ngama-2040s, abantu baseMelika bazobe sebebhekene nezinkinga zabo-iziphepho ezijwayelekile ezifana neKatrina, isomiso, isivuno esiphansi sokulima, iMpi Yomshoshaphansi ekhulayo neChina, kanye nenkinga enkulu yababaleki emngceleni wabo oseningizimu - ngakho-ke bachitha izigidigidi esifundeni. lokho akusabalulekile kwezokuphepha kwezwe ngeke kubekezelelwe umphakathi.

Ngokusekelwa okuncane kwezempi yase-US, i-Gulf States izosala ukuthi izivikele ezifundeni ezihlulekile zaseSyria nase-Iraq enyakatho neYemen eningizimu. Ngeminyaka yawo-2040, lezi zifundazwe zizobe sezibuswa amanethiwekhi amaqembu alwayo azolawula izigidi zabantu ezomile, ezilambile, nezithukuthele ezilindele ukuthi zinikeze amanzi nokudla ezikudingayo. Lezi zakhamuzi ezinkulu nezihlukene zizokhiqiza ibutho elikhulu lezempi lama-jihadist amancane, bonke ababhalisela ukulwela ukudla namanzi imindeni yabo ewadingayo ukuze iphile. Amehlo abo azobheka emazweni aseGulf abuthakathaka kuqala ngaphambi kokugxila eYurophu.

Ngokuqondene ne-Iran, isitha semvelo samaShia emazweni aseSunni Gulf, kungenzeka bahlale bengathathi hlangothi, bengafuni ukuqinisa amabutho aphikisayo, noma basekele izifundazwe zamaSunni osekuyisikhathi eside zisebenza ngokumelene nezithakazelo zabo zesifunda. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla kwentengo kawoyela kuzolimaza umnotho wase-Iran, okungase kuholele ekubhebhethekeni kwezibhelu zasekhaya kanye nolunye uguquko lwase-Iran. Ingase isebenzise izikhali zayo ze-nuclear zesikhathi esizayo ku-broker (blackmail) usizo oluvela emphakathini wamazwe ngamazwe ukusiza ukuxazulula ukungezwani kwayo kwasekhaya.

Gijima noma uphahlazeke

Ngenxa yesomiso esisabalele kanye nokuntuleka kokudla, izigidi zabantu abavela kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi zizovele zisishiye lesi sifunda ziye emadlelweni aluhlaza. Abacebile nabaphezulu abaphakathi bazoba ngabokuqala ukuhamba, benethemba lokubalekela ukuntengantenga kwesifunda, behamba nezinsiza zobuhlakani nezezezimali ezidingekayo ukuze isifunda sinqobe ubunzima besimo sezulu.

Labo abasele ngemuva abangakwazi ukuthenga ithikithi lendiza (okungukuthi iningi labantu baseMpumalanga Ephakathi), bazozama ukubaleka njengababaleki ngendlela eyodwa kwezimbili. Abanye bazobhekisa amabombo eGulf States abazobe betshale imali eningi kwingqalasizinda yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Abanye bazobalekela e-Europe, bathole amabutho axhaswe yi-Europe asuka eTurkey kanye nezwe elizayo lase-Kurdistan livimbe yonke indlela yabo yokuphunyuka.

Iqiniso elingashiwongo abaningi emazweni aseNtshonalanga abazolishaya indiva kakhulu elokuthi lesi sifunda sizobhekana nokuwohloka kwesibalo sabantu uma ngabe usizo olukhulu lokudla namanzi lungafinyeleli kubo luvela emphakathini wamazwe ngamazwe.

Israel

Uma sicabanga ukuthi isivumelwano sokuthula besingakavunyelwana ngaso phakathi kwama-Israel namaPalestine, ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2040, isivumelwano sokuthula ngeke siphumelele. Ukungaqini kahle kwesifunda kuzophoqa i-Israel ukuthi yakhe indawo evikelekile kanye nezifunda ezihlangene ukuze kuvikelwe ingqikithi yayo yangaphakathi. Njengoba abashokobezi beJihadi belawula amazwe asemngceleni wayo iLebanon neSyria enyakatho, amasosha ase-Iraq angena eJordani ebuthaka ohlangothini olusempumalanga, kanye nebutho lezempi laseGibhithe elibuthaka eningizimu yalo livumela amasosha ukuba adlulele ngaphesheya kweSinayi, u-Israyeli uzozizwa enjengeyakhe. ingemuva ibhekene nodonga namasosha amaSulumane avale izinhlangothi.

Lawa maqaba asesangweni azovusa izinkumbulo zeMpi yama-Arab-Israel yango-1948 kuyo yonke imithombo yezindaba yakwa-Israel. Abakhululi benkululeko bakwa-Israel abangakalibaqi izwe ukuyohlala e-US bazozwakalisa amazwi abo ngophiko lwangakwesokudla olufuna ukwanda okukhulu kwezempi nokungenelela eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Futhi ngeke babe nephutha, u-Israyeli uzobhekana nenye yezinsongo ezinkulu ezikhona kusukela ekusungulweni kwakhe.

Ukuze kuvikelwe iZwe Elingcwele, u-Israyeli uzoqinisekisa ukuvikeleka kokudla namanzi ngokutshala izimali ezinkulu ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini nasekulimeni okwenziwa endlini, ngaleyo ndlela agweme impi eqondile neJordani phezu kokuncipha kokugeleza koMfula iJordani. Ngemuva kwalokho izosebenzisana ngasese neJordani ukuze isize amasosha ayo ekulweni nezidlamlilo emngceleni waseSyria nase-Iraq. Izoqhubekisela phambili amasosha ayo enyakatho eLebanon naseSyria ukuze kwakhe indawo ephephile esenyakatho, futhi iphinde ithathe iSinayi uma kwenzeka iGibhithe iwe. Ngokusekelwa kwezempi yase-US, i-Israel izophinde yethule inqwaba yama-drones asemoyeni (izinkulungwane ezinamandla) ukushaya izinhloso zezempi eziqhubekayo esifundeni sonke.

Sekukonke, i-Middle East izoba yisifunda esisesimweni esinodlame sokuguquguquka. Amalungu ayo ngamunye azothola izindlela zawo, elwa nezidlamlilo zamajihadi kanye nokungazinzi kwasekhaya kubheke ekulinganeni okusha okusimeme kwabantu bawo.

Izizathu zethemba

Okokuqala, khumbula ukuthi lokho osanda kukufunda kuwukubikezela kuphela, hhayi iqiniso. Kuphinde kube isibikezelo esilotshwe ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi okuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje nama-2040s ukubhekana nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu (okuningi kwakho kuzovezwa esiphethweni sochungechunge). Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukuze kunciphe futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: