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Kuulaya; Kugwa ndi kusinthika kwa dziko la Aarabu: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 12:40

Kuneneratu kosagwirizana kumeneku kudzayang'ana pa Middle East geopolitics monga momwe ikukhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, mudzawona Middle East mumkhalidwe wachiwawa. Mudzawona Middle East komwe Gulf States imagwiritsa ntchito chuma chawo chamafuta kuyesa kumanga dera lokhazikika kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndikutetezanso gulu lankhondo latsopano lankhondo mazana masauzande. Mudzawonanso ku Middle East komwe Israeli akukakamizika kukhala ankhanza kwambiri kuti ateteze akunja omwe akuguba pazipata zake.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale ku Middle East - silinafotokozedwe bwino. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani ngati Gwynne Dyer, a. wolemba wamkulu m'munda uno. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Palibe madzi. Palibe Chakudya

Middle East, pamodzi ndi mbali yaikulu ya kumpoto kwa Africa, ndi dera louma kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo mayiko ambiri amakhala ndi madzi osakwana 1,000 cubic metres pa munthu aliyense, pachaka. Umenewo ndiwo mlingo umene United Nations umautcha 'wovuta.' Yerekezerani izi ndi mayiko ambiri otukuka a ku Europe omwe amapindula ndi madzi abwino opitilira ma kiyubiki mita 5,000 pa munthu aliyense, pachaka, kapena mayiko ngati Canada omwe amakhala ndi ma cubic metres opitilira 600,000.

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, kusintha kwa nyengo kudzangowonjezera zinthu, kufooketsa mitsinje yake ya Yordano, Firate, ndi Tigris ndi kuchititsa kuti madzi ake otsala awonongeke. Madzi akafika potsika moopsa chonchi, ulimi wa makolo ndi kudyetsera ziweto m'derali zidzakhala zovuta kwambiri. Derali, mwa zolinga ndi zolinga zilizonse, lidzakhala losayenera kukhalamo anthu ambiri. Kwa mayiko ena, izi zidzatanthauza ndalama zambiri muukadaulo wapamwamba wochotsa mchere komanso umisiri waulimi, kwa ena, zidzatanthauza nkhondo.

Kusintha

Mayiko aku Middle East omwe ali ndi mwayi wabwino wosinthira kutentha ndi kuuma koopsa komwe kukubwera ndi omwe ali ndi anthu ochepa komanso omwe ali ndi ndalama zambiri kuchokera ku ndalama zamafuta, zomwe ndi Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, ndi United Arab Emirates. Mayikowa adzaika ndalama zambiri m'mitengo yochotsa mchere kuti adyetse zosowa zawo zamadzi opanda mchere.

Saudi Arabia pakali pano imapeza 50 peresenti ya madzi ake pochotsa mchere, 40 peresenti kuchokera pansi pa nthaka, ndi 10 peresenti kuchokera ku mitsinje kudzera m'mapiri ake akumwera chakumadzulo. Pofika m'zaka za m'ma 2040, madzi osungira madzi osasinthika adzakhala atatha, kusiya Saudis kuti apange kusiyana kumeneku ndi kuchotsa mchere wambiri pogwiritsa ntchito mafuta awo owopsa.

Ponena za chitetezo cha chakudya, ambiri mwa mayikowa ayika ndalama zambiri pogula minda ku Africa yonse ndi kumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia kuti azigulitsa chakudya kumayiko ena. Tsoka ilo, pofika zaka za m'ma 2040, palibe malonda ogula mindawa omwe adzalemekezedwe, chifukwa zokolola zochepa zaulimi ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu a ku Africa zidzachititsa kuti mayiko a mu Africa azitha kutumiza chakudya kunja kwa dziko popanda kupha anthu awo ndi njala. Wogulitsa kunja kwaulimi yekhayo m'derali ndi Russia, koma chakudya chake chidzakhala chokwera mtengo komanso champikisano kugula pamsika wotseguka chifukwa cha maiko omwe ali ndi njala ku Europe ndi China. M'malo mwake, dziko la Gulf States lipanga ndalama zomangira minda yayikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yoyimirira, m'nyumba komanso pansi pa nthaka.

Ndalama zolemetsa izi pochotsa mchere komanso minda yoyimirira mwina kungokwanira kudyetsa nzika za Gulf State ndikupewa ziwawa zazikulu zapakhomo ndi zipolowe. Zikaphatikizidwa ndi zomwe boma likuchita, monga kuwongolera kuchuluka kwa anthu komanso mizinda yokhazikika, mayiko a Gulf atha kukhala ndi moyo wokhazikika. Ndipo m'nthawi yake, popeza kusinthaku kungawononge ndalama zonse zomwe zasungidwa kuchokera kuzaka zotukuka zamitengo yokwera yamafuta. Ndi kupambana kumeneku komwe kudzawapangitsanso kukhala chandamale.

Zolinga zankhondo

Tsoka ilo, zomwe tafotokozazi zikuwonetsa kuti Gulf States ipitiliza kusangalala ndi ndalama za US komanso chitetezo chankhondo. Komabe, pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, mayiko ambiri otukuka adzakhala atasintha kupita ku njira zotsika mtengo zoyendera magetsi ndi mphamvu zowonjezera, zomwe zidzawononge kufunikira kwa mafuta padziko lonse lapansi ndikuchotsa kudalira kulikonse kwamafuta aku Middle East.

Sikuti kugwa kwapang'onopang'ono kumeneku kudzakankhira mtengo wamafuta pang'onopang'ono, kuwononga ndalama kuchokera ku bajeti za Middle East, komanso kudzachepetsanso mtengo wa derali pamaso pa US. Pofika zaka za m'ma 2040, anthu aku America adzakhala akulimbana ndi mavuto awo - mphepo yamkuntho ya Katrina, chilala, zokolola zochepa zaulimi, Cold War ndi China, komanso vuto lalikulu la othawa kwawo m'madera akumwera - kotero kuwononga mabiliyoni ambiri kudera lina. zomwe sizilinso zofunika zachitetezo cha dziko sizidzaloledwa ndi anthu.

Popanda thandizo lankhondo laku US, mayiko a Gulf adzasiyidwa kuti adziteteze ku mayiko olephera a Syria ndi Iraq kumpoto ndi Yemen kumwera. Podzafika zaka za m’ma 2040, maikowa adzakhala akulamuliridwa ndi magulu a zigawenga omwe azidzalamulira anthu a ludzu, anjala, ndi okwiya a miyandamiyanda amene amayembekezera kuti aziwapatsa madzi ndi chakudya chimene akufunikira. Anthu akulu komanso osagwirizanawa atulutsa gulu lankhondo lalikulu la achinyamata a jihadists, onse omwe adzalembetse kuti amenyera chakudya ndi madzi omwe mabanja awo amafunikira kuti apulumuke. Maso awo adzayang'ana ku Gulf States yofooka poyamba asanayang'ane ku Ulaya.

Ponena za Iran, mdani wachilengedwe wa Shia ku mayiko a Sunni Gulf, atha kukhala osalowerera ndale, osafuna kulimbikitsa magulu ankhondo, kapena kuthandizira mayiko a Sunni omwe akhala akugwira ntchito kwa nthawi yaitali motsutsana ndi zofuna zawo. Kuphatikiza apo, kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta kudzawononga chuma cha Iran, zomwe zingayambitse zipolowe zapakhomo komanso kusintha kwina kwa Iran. Itha kugwiritsa ntchito zida zake zamtsogolo zanyukiliya kuti zithandizire (blackmail) kuchokera kumayiko ena kuti zithandizire kuthetsa kusamvana kwawo.

Thamanga kapena kuwonongeka

Chifukwa cha chilala komanso kuperewera kwa chakudya, anthu mamiliyoni ambiri ochokera kudera lonse la Middle East angochoka m'derali kupita kumalo obiriwira. Anthu olemera ndi apamwamba apakati adzakhala oyamba kuchoka, akuyembekeza kuthawa kusakhazikika kwa dera, kutenga nawo nzeru ndi ndalama zomwe zimafunikira kuti derali lithetse vuto la nyengo.

Otsalira omwe sangakwanitse kugula tikiti ya ndege (ie ambiri mwa anthu aku Middle East), adzayesa kuthawa ngati othawa kwawo kumodzi mwa njira ziwiri. Ena adzalowera ku Gulf States omwe akhala atapereka ndalama zambiri pakusintha kwanyengo. Ena athawira ku Europe, kuti angopeza magulu ankhondo omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku Europe kuchokera ku Turkey komanso dziko lamtsogolo la Kurdistan litatsekereza njira yawo yonse yopulumukira.

Chowonadi chosaneneka chomwe ambiri Kumadzulo anganyalanyaze kwambiri ndikuti derali lidzakumana ndi kugwa kwa anthu ngati chakudya chachikulu ndi chithandizo cha madzi sichingawafikire kuchokera kumayiko ena.

Israel

Poganiza kuti mgwirizano wamtendere sunavomerezedwe kale pakati pa Israeli ndi Palestine, pofika kumapeto kwa 2040s, mgwirizano wamtendere udzakhala wosatheka. Kusakhazikika kwachigawo kudzakakamiza Israeli kupanga malo otetezedwa ndi mayiko ogwirizana kuti ateteze mkati mwake. Ndi zigawenga za Jihadi zomwe zimayang'anira malire ake aku Lebanon ndi Syria kumpoto, zigawenga zaku Iraq zikulowa mumtsinje wa Yordano womwe uli wofooka mbali ya kum'mawa kwake, ndipo gulu lankhondo la Aigupto lofooka kumwera kwake kulola zigawenga kudutsa Sinai, Israeli imva ngati dziko lawo. kumbuyo kuli pakhoma pomwe zigawenga zachisilamu zikutseka mbali zonse.

Akunja awa pachipata adzakumbutsa za Nkhondo Yachiarabu ndi Israeli ya 1948 mu Israeli yonse. Omenyera ufulu waku Israeli omwe sanathawepo kale mdziko muno ku US mawu awo adzayimitsidwa ndi mapiko akumanja omwe akufuna kuti asitikali achuluke komanso kulowererapo ku Middle East. Ndipo sakhala akulakwitsa, Israeli adzakumana ndi ziwopsezo zazikulu zomwe zilipo kuyambira pomwe idakhazikitsidwa.

Kuti ateteze Dziko Lopatulika, Israeli adzalimbitsa chitetezo chake cha chakudya ndi madzi kudzera m'mabizinesi akuluakulu ochotsa mchere komanso ulimi wochita kupanga m'nyumba, potero kupeŵa nkhondo yeniyeni ndi Yordano pakuyenda pang'ono kwa Mtsinje wa Yordano. Pambuyo pake idzagwirizana mwachinsinsi ndi Yordani kuti athandize asilikali ake kuthana ndi zigawenga zochokera kumalire a Syria ndi Iraq. Idzapititsa asilikali ake kumpoto kupita ku Lebanoni ndi Syria kuti apange malo otetezeka a kumpoto, komanso kutenganso Sinai ngati Egypt ingagwe. Ndi thandizo lankhondo laku US, Israeli ikhazikitsanso gulu lalikulu la ndege zowuluka (zikwi zamphamvu) kuti zigonjetse zigawenga zomwe zikupitilira dera lonselo.

Ponseponse, Middle East idzakhala dera lomwe likuyenda mwachiwawa. Mamembala ake aliyense adzapeza njira zake, kumenyana ndi zigawenga za jihadi komanso kusakhazikika kwapakhomo kuti pakhale mgwirizano wokhazikika wa anthu awo.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Choyamba, kumbukirani kuti zomwe mwawerengazi ndi kulosera chabe, osati zenizeni. Ndilonso zoneneratu zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingathe ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa 2040s kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo (zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwe mu mndandanda womaliza). Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa: