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Sihlangabezana nesistimu yokunakekelwa kwezempilo yakusasa: Ikusasa Lezempilo P6

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 05:31

Emashumini amabili eminyaka, ukufinyelela ekunakekelweni kwezempilo okungcono kakhulu kuzoba yinto yonke, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uhola malini noma uhlalaphi. Okuxakayo ukuthi isidingo sakho sokuvakashela izibhedlela, ngisho nokuhlangana nodokotela nhlobo, sizokwehla kuleyo minyaka engamashumi amabili.

Uyemukelwa ekusaseni lokunakekelwa kwezempilo okunwetshiwe.

Ukunakekelwa kwezempilo okusabalalisiwe

Uhlelo lwanamuhla lokunakekelwa kwezempilo lubonakala kakhulu ngoxhaxha lwamakhemisi, imitholampilo, nezibhedlela ezinikezela ngemithi kanye nokwelashwa okulinganayo ukuze kubhekwane nezinkinga zempilo ezikhona zomphakathi ongazi ngempilo yawo futhi ongenalwazi mayelana nazo. indlela yokuzinakekela ngempumelelo. (Whew, lokho kwakuwumusho ongaqondakali.)

Qhathanisa leyo sistimu nalokho esiphokophele kukho njengamanje: inethiwekhi ehlukaniselwe izinhlelo zokusebenza, amawebhusayithi, amakhemisi emitholampilo, nezibhedlela ezihlinzeka ngemithi yomuntu siqu kanye nokwelashwa ukuze kuvinjelwe izinkinga zempilo zomphakathi omatasatasa ngempilo yawo futhi abafundile. mayelana nendlela yokuzinakekela ngempumelelo.

Lokhu kuguquguquka kokuzamazama komhlaba, okunikwe amandla ubuchwepheshe ekulethweni kokunakekelwa kwezempilo kusekelwe phezu kwezimiso ezinhlanu ezibandakanya:

Ukunikeza abantu amandla ngamathuluzi okulandelela idatha yabo yezempilo;
Ukuvumela odokotela bemindeni ukuthi benze umsebenzi wokunakekela impilo esikhundleni sokwelapha labo asebegula;
Ukugqugquzela ukubonisana kwezempilo, ngaphandle kwezingqinamba zendawo;
Ukuhudula izindleko kanye nesikhathi sokuxilongwa okuphelele kuze kufike kumasenti namaminithi; futhi
Ukunikeza ukwelashwa okwenziwe ngendlela oyifisayo kwabagulayo noma abalimele ukuze ubabuyisele ngokushesha empilweni ngezinkinga ezincane zesikhathi eside.

Ndawonye, lezi zinguquko zizonciphisa kakhulu izindleko kulo lonke uhlelo lokunakekelwa kwezempilo futhi zithuthukise ukusebenza kwazo konke. Ukuze siqonde kangcono ukuthi lokhu kuzosebenza kanjani, ake siqale ngokuthi ngelinye ilanga sizobaxilonga kanjani abagulayo.

Ukuxilongwa njalo nokubikezela

Lapho uzalwa (futhi kamuva, ngaphambi kokuzalwa), igazi lakho lizothathwa isampula, lixhunywe kusilandeleli sofuzo, bese sihlaziywa ukuze kukhishwe noma yiziphi izinkinga zempilo ezingaba khona i-DNA yakho ekwenza uhlokele kuzo. Njengoba kuchaziwe ku isahluko sesithathu, odokotela bezingane bakusasa bazobe sebebala “ibalazwe lokunakekelwa kwezempilo” leminyaka yakho elandelayo engama-20-50, lichaza ngokuqondile imigomo yangokwezifiso, ukwelapha ngezakhi zofuzo kanye nokuhlinzwa okuyodingeka ukuthathe ngezikhathi ezithile zokuphila kwakho ukuze ugweme izinkinga ezinkulu zempilo kamuva—futhi. , konke kusekelwe ku-DNA yakho eyingqayizivele.

Njengoba ukhula, amafoni, bese kuba izinto ezigqokwayo, bese izimila ohamba nazo zizoqala ukuqapha impilo yakho njalo. Eqinisweni, abakhiqizi banamuhla be-smartphone abahamba phambili, njenge-Apple, i-Samsung, ne-Huawei, bayaqhubeka nokuphuma nezinzwa ze-MEMS ezithuthuke kakhulu ezikala i-biometrics njengokushaya kwenhliziyo yakho, izinga lokushisa, amazinga omsebenzi nokunye. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, lawo ma-implants esiwashilo azohlaziya igazi lakho ukuze athole amazinga obuthi, amagciwane, namagciwane angase aphakamise izinsimbi.

Yonke leyo datha yezempilo izobe isikwabelwa ngohlelo lwakho lokusebenza lwezempilo lomuntu siqu, isevisi yokubhaliselwe yokuqapha ezempilo eku-inthanethi, noma inethiwekhi yendawo yokunakekelwa kwezempilo, ukuze sikwazise ngokugula okuzayo ngaphambi kokuthi uzwe noma yiziphi izimpawu. Futhi, kunjalo, lezi zinsizakalo zizohlinzeka ngemithi etholakala ngaphandle kwekhawunta kanye nezincomo zokunakekelwa komuntu siqu ukuze kunqandwe ukugula ngaphambi kokuthi kuqale ngokugcwele.

(Eceleni, uma wonke umuntu abelana ngedatha yakhe yezempilo nezinsizakalo ezifana nalezi, sizokwazi ukubona futhi siqukathe ubhubhane kanye nokuqubuka kobhubhane kusenesikhathi.)

Kulezo zifo lawa ma-smartphones nezinhlelo zokusebenza azikwazi ukuxilonga ngokugcwele, uzokwaziswa ukuthi uvakashele indawo yangakini ekhemisi-umtholampilo.

Lapha, umhlengikazi uzothatha i-swab yamathe akho, a iphinifa legazi lakho, ukuqubuka kokuqubuka kwakho (kanye nokunye ukuhlola okumbalwa kuye ngezimpawu zakho, okuhlanganisa nama-x-reyi), bese ukuphakela konke kukhompuyutha enkulu yasendlini yasekhemisi. I Uhlelo lwe-artificial intelligence (AI) luzohlaziya imiphumela yamasampuli akho e-bio ngemizuzu, uyiqhathanise naleyo yezigidi zezinye iziguli kumarekhodi ayo, ukuze uhlole isimo sakho ngesilinganiso sokunemba esingu-90percentt.

Le AI izobe ikunikeza umuthi ojwayelekile noma owenziwe ngezifiso wesimo sakho, wabelane ngokuxilongwa (I-ICD) idatha enohlelo lwakho lokusebenza lwezempilo noma isevisi, bese uyala usokhemisi oyirobhothi wekhemisi-mtholampilo ukuthi alungiselele i-oda lomuthi ngokushesha futhi ngaphandle kwephutha lomuntu. Umhlengikazi uyobe esekunikeza incwadi kadokotela ukuze ube sendleleni yakho yokujabula.

Udokotela okhona yonke indawo

Isimo esingenhla sinika umbono wokuthi odokotela abangabantu bazophelelwa yisikhathi ... hhayi okwamanje. Emashumini amathathu eminyaka ezayo, odokotela abangabantu bazodingeka kancane futhi basetshenziselwe izimo zezokwelapha ezicindezela kakhulu noma ezikude.

Isibonelo, yonke imitholampilo yekhemisi echazwe ngenhla izophathwa udokotela. Futhi kulabo abangenayo abangakwazi ukuhlolwa kalula noma ngokugcwele yi-AI yezokwelapha yasendlini, udokotela uzongenela ukuze abuyekeze isiguli. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kulabo asebekhulile abahamba ngezinyawo abangakhululekile ukwamukela ukuxilongwa kwezokwelapha kanye nencwadi kadokotela evela ku-AI, udokotela uzongena lapho futhi (ngenkathi ekhuluma ngokunyenya i-AI ukuze athole umbono wesibili kunjalo)

Khonamanjalo, kulabo bantu abavilapha kakhulu, abamatasa noma ababuthaka ukuba bavakashele ikhemisi-mtholampilo, kanye nalabo abahlala ezindaweni ezikude, odokotela abavela kunethiwekhi yezempilo yesifunda bazobe bekhona ukuze basize nalezi ziguli. Isevisi esobala iwukunikeza ukuvakashelwa kodokotela bangaphakathi (osekuvele kutholakala ezindaweni eziningi ezithuthukile), kodwa maduzane futhi nodokotela obonakalayo ovakashela lapho ukhuluma nodokotela ngesevisi efana ne-Skype. Futhi uma amasampula e-bio edingeka, ikakhulukazi kulabo abahlala ezindaweni ezikude lapho umgwaqo ungangeni kahle, ingandiza indiza yezokwelapha ukuze ilethe futhi ibuyise ikhithi yokuhlola ezokwelashwa.

Njengamanje, cishe amaphesenti angama-70 eziguli azikwazi ukufinyelela kudokotela ngosuku olufanayo. Ngaleso sikhathi, iningi lezicelo zokunakekelwa kwezempilo zivela kubantu abadinga usizo lokubhekana nezifo ezilula, ukuqubuka, nezinye izimo ezincane. Lokho kuholela ekutheni amagumbi ezimo eziphuthumayo avale ngokungenasidingo iziguli ezingase zilethwe kalula yizinsizakalo zezempilo ezisezingeni eliphansi.

Ngenxa yalokhu kungasebenzi kahle kwesistimu, okukhathaza ngempela ngokugula akuguli nhlobo—kudingeka ulinde ukuze uthole ukunakekelwa kanye nezeluleko zezempilo ozidingayo ukuze ube ngcono.

Kungakho uma sesisungule uhlelo lokunakekelwa kwezempilo olusebenzayo oluchazwe ngenhla, abantu ngeke nje bathole ukunakekelwa abakudingayo ngokushesha, kodwa amagumbi ezimo eziphuthumayo ekugcineni azokhululwa ukuze agxile kulokho abeklanyelwe kona.

Ukunakekelwa kwezimo eziphuthumayo kuyashesha

Umsebenzi wezimo eziphuthumayo (EMT) uwukuthola umuntu ocindezelekile, aqinise isimo sakhe, futhi amyise esibhedlela ngesikhathi ukuze athole usizo lwezempilo aludingayo. Nakuba ilula ngombono, kungase kucindezele kakhulu futhi kube nzima ekusebenzeni.

Okokuqala, kuye ngokuthi isiminyaminya, kungathatha phakathi kwemizuzu emi-5-10 ukuthi i-ambulensi ifike ngesikhathi ukusiza ofonayo. Futhi uma umuntu othintekile ehlushwa isifo senhliziyo noma inxeba lokudutshulwa, imizuzu engu-5-10 kungase kube ukulinda okude kakhulu. Kungakho ama-drones (njengesibonelo esivezwe kuvidiyo engezansi) azothunyelwa ngaphambi kwe-ambulensi ukuze inikeze ukunakekelwa kusenesikhathi ezimeni eziphuthumayo ezikhethiwe.

Kungenjalo, ekuqaleni kwawo-2040, ama-ambulensi amaningi azoba iguqulelwe kuma-quadcopter ukunikeza izikhathi zokuphendula ngokushesha ngokugwema ithrafikhi ngokuphelele, kanye nokufinyelela izindawo ezikude kakhulu.

Lapho sebengaphakathi kwi-ambulensi, kugxilwa ekuqiniseni isimo sesiguli isikhathi eside ngokwanele baze bafike esibhedlela esiseduze. Njengamanje, lokhu ngokuvamile kwenziwa nge-cocktail yezidakamizwa ezikhuthazayo noma ezizolile ukuze kulinganiswe izinga lokushaya kwenhliziyo nokugeleza kwegazi ezithweni, kanye nokusebenzisa i-defibrillator ukuqalisa kabusha inhliziyo ngokuphelele.

Kodwa phakathi kwamacala anzima kakhulu ukuzinzisa amanxeba okucwiywa, ngokuvamile ngendlela yokudubula noma ukugwazwa. Kulezi zimo, ukhiye ukumisa ukopha kwangaphakathi nangaphandle. Nalapha futhi intuthuko yesikhathi esizayo emithini yezimo eziphuthumayo izofika ukuze isindise usuku. Esokuqala sisesimweni sika-a ijeli yezokwelapha okungase kumise khona manjalo ukopha okubuhlungu, okufana nokuhlanganisa ngokuphephile i-supergluing ekuvaleni kwesilonda. Okwesibili ukusungulwa okuzayo kwe igazi lokwenziwa (2019) engagcinwa kuma-ambulensi ukuze ajove isisulu sengozi esinokulahlekelwa igazi eliningi kakade.

Izibhedlela ezilwa namagciwane kanye nomakhi

Ngesikhathi isiguli sifika esibhedlela kulolu hlelo lwezempilo lwesikhathi esizayo, kungenzeka ukuthi sigule kakhulu, selashelwe ukulimala okubuhlungu, noma silungiselelwa ukuhlinzwa okujwayelekile. Uma kubhekwa ngelinye iso, lokhu kuphinde kusho ukuthi abantu abaningi bangavakashela esibhedlela izikhathi ezimbalwa nje empilweni yabo yonke.

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yisiphi isizathu sokuvakasha, enye yezimbangela ezinkulu zezinkinga nokufa kwabantu esibhedlela ngenxa yalokho okubizwa ngokuthi izifo ezitholwa esibhedlela (i-HAIs). A cwaningo bathole ukuthi ngo-2011, iziguli ezingu-722,000 zathola i-HAI ezibhedlela zase-US, okuholela ekufeni kwabantu abangu-75,000. Ukuze kubhekwane nalesi sibalo esishaqisayo, izibhedlela zakusasa zizoba nempahla yazo yezokwelapha, amathuluzi nezindawo ezingaphezulu esikhundleni sazo noma zigcotshwe ngezinto ezilwa namagciwane noma amakhemikhali. A elula isibonelo Lokhu kungaba ukufaka esikhundleni noma ukumboza imibhede yesibhedlela ngethusi ukuze kubulawe ngaso leso sikhathi noma yimaphi amagciwane ahlangana nawo.

Khonamanjalo, izibhedlela zizoshintsha ukuze zikwazi ukuzimela, nokufinyelela okugcwele ezinkethweni zokunakekelwa okukhethekile.

Isibonelo, ukuhlinzeka ngokwelashwa kokwelashwa ngofuzo namuhla ngokuyinhloko kuyisizinda sezibhedlela ezimbalwa kuphela ezikwazi ukufinyelela uxhaso olukhulu nochwepheshe abangcono kakhulu bocwaningo. Ngokuzayo, zonke izibhedlela zizofaka okungenani uphiko/umnyango owodwa osebenza ngokukhethekile ekuhleleni izakhi zofuzo nokuhlela, okwazi ukukhiqiza ukwelashwa komuntu siqu kanye ne-stem cell ezigulini ezikudingayo.

Lezi zibhedlela zizophinde zibe nomnyango ozinikele ngokuphelele kumaphrinta e-3D ebanga lezokwelapha. Lokhu kuzovumela ukukhiqizwa kwangaphakathi kwempahla yezokwelapha ephrintiwe ye-3D, okokusebenza kwezokwelapha nensimbi, ipulasitiki, nezifakelo zomuntu zikagesi. Ukusebenzisa amaphrinta amakhemikhali, izibhedlela zizokwazi futhi ukukhiqiza amaphilisi kadokotela aklanywe ngokwezifiso, kuyilapho ama-bioprinters e-3D azokhiqiza izitho ezisebenza ngokugcwele nezitho zomzimba zisebenzisa amaseli esiqu akhiqizwa emnyangweni oseduze.

Le minyango emisha izonciphisa kakhulu isikhathi esidingekayo soku-oda izinsiza ezinjalo ezikhungweni zokwelapha ezimaphakathi, ngaleyo ndlela yandise amazinga okusinda kweziguli futhi yehlise nesikhathi sazo sokunakekelwa.

Odokotela abahlinza amarobhothi

Osekuvele kutholakala ezibhedlela eziningi zesimanje, amasistimu okuhlinza amarobhothi (bona ividiyo ngezansi) azoba inkambiso yomhlaba wonke ngasekupheleni konyaka ka-2020. Esikhundleni sokuhlinzwa okuhlaselayo okudinga udokotela ohlinzayo ukuthi enze izimbobo ezinkulu ukuze zingene ngaphakathi kuwe, lezi zingalo zamarobhothi zidinga kuphela i-3-4 eyodwa isentimitha ububanzi ukuze zivumele udokotela ukuthi ahlinze ngosizo lwevidiyo futhi (ngokushesha) imaging engokoqobo ebonakalayo.

Ngawo-2030s, lezi zinhlelo zokuhlinza zamarobhothi zizobe sezithuthuke ngokwanele ukuthi zisebenze ngokuzimele ekuhlinzeni okuvamile, okushiya udokotela ohlinzayo ebambe iqhaza lokuqondisa. Kodwa ngeminyaka yawo-2040, uhlobo olusha ngokuphelele lokuhlinzwa luzoba olujwayelekile.

Odokotela abahlinzayo baseNanobot

Kuchazwe ngokugcwele ku isahluko sesine yalolu chungechunge, i-nanotechnology izodlala indima enkulu kwezokwelapha emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Lawa ma-nano-robots, amancane ngokwanele ukuba angabhukuda ngaphakathi kwegazi lakho, azosetshenziselwa ukuletha imithi eqondiwe kanye bulala amangqamuzana omdlavuza ngasekupheleni kuka-2020. Kodwa ngasekuqaleni kwawo-2040, ochwepheshe be-nanobot basesibhedlela, ababambisene nodokotela abahlinzayo abakhethekile, bazothatha indawo yokuhlinzwa okuncane ngomjovo ogcwele izigidigidi zama-nanobot ahlelwe ngaphambilini ajovelwe endaweni ehlosiwe yomzimba wakho.

Lawa ma-nanobots azobe esesakazeka emzimbeni wakho efuna izicubu ezilimele. Uma sebetholakele, babe sebesebenzisa ama-enzyme ukusika amangqamuzana ezicubu ezilimele kude nezicubu ezinempilo. Amaseli omzimba anempilo azobe esekhuthazwa ukuthi alahle amangqamuzana alimele abese evuselela izicubu ezizungeze umgodi odalwe ngokulahlwa kwalokho.

(Ngiyazi, le ngxenye izwakala ngokweqile i-Sci-Fi njengamanje, kodwa emashumini ambalwa eminyaka, Ukuziphilisa kuka-Wolverine ikhono lizotholakala kubo bonke.)

Futhi njengokwelashwa kwezakhi zofuzo kanye neminyango yokunyathelisa ye-3D echazwe ngenhla, izibhedlela nazo ngelinye ilanga zizoba nomnyango ozinikele wokukhiqiza i-nanobot ngokwezifiso, okuzokwenza lokhu “kuhlinzwa kumjovo” kutholakale kubo bonke.

Uma kusetshenziswa ngendlela efanele, uhlelo lokunakekelwa kwezempilo olusabalalisiwe luzoqinisekisa ukuthi awuguli kakhulu ngenxa yezizathu ezingagwemeka. Kodwa ukuze lolo hlelo lusebenze, luzoncika ekubambisaneni kwalo nomphakathi wonkana, nasekugqugquzeleni ukulawula komuntu siqu nokuzibophezela phezu kwempilo yomuntu.