Quantumrun

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Raws li kev lag luam e-lag luam tuag, nyem thiab mortar siv nws qhov chaw: Yav tom ntej ntawm khw muag khoom P3

David Tal, Publisher, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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Xov, 09/14/2020 - 10:04

Thoob plaws lub sijhawm xyoo 2010, ntau txhiab tus neeg sau xov xwm thev naus laus zis tau kwv yees tias yuav muaj kev puas tsuaj ntawm cov khw muag khoom cib-thiab-mortar ntawm tes ntawm kev lag luam e-lag luam loj hlob uas tau nce tawm ntawm Silicon Valley, New York, thiab Tuam Tshoj. Thiab rau ntau lub xyoo 2010, cov lej tau tawm qhov no tawm nrog cov chaw lag luam e-lag luam tau tawg hauv cov nyiaj tau los, thaum lub cib-thiab-mortar chains kaw qhov chaw tom qab qhov chaw.

Tab sis raws li xyoo 2010s kos rau ze, cov kab sib txawv no tau pib poob rau hauv qhov hnyav ntawm lawv tus kheej hype.

Dab tsi tshwm sim? Zoo, rau ib qho, cov tuam txhab los ntshav thiab cov khib nyiab tau paub txog cov digital thiab pib nqis peev ntau hauv lawv cov kev lag luam e-lag luam, nce kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam digital. Lub caij no, cov lag luam e-lag luam loj xws li Amazon cornered puas tau loj dua chunks ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv ntsug, ntxiv rau kev nyiam kev xa khoom dawb, yog li ua rau nws kim dua rau e-commerce upstarts nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam. Thiab cov neeg siv khoom hauv online, feem ntau, pib poob kev txaus siab hauv kev lag luam e-lag luam fads xws li flash muag websites (Groupon) thiab rau qhov tsawg dua, qhov chaw tso npe.

Muab cov kev hloov tshiab no, tus qauv tshiab rau cov khw muag khoom zoo li cas hauv xyoo 2020?

Cib thiab Mortar hloov mus rau hauv Click thiab Mortar

Nyob nruab nrab ntawm 2020 thiab 2030, cov khw muag khoom yuav ua tiav hauv kev kho cov neeg siv khoom ntau kom ua rau feem ntau ntawm lawv cov kev yuav khoom txhua hnub hauv online. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias feem ntau cov neeg nyob hauv lub ntiaj teb tsim kho yuav tsum tsis txhob yuav khoom ntawm tus kheej thiab yuav tsuas yog lub cev yuav "xav tau."

Koj pom qhov no tam sim no nrog cov neeg khaws nyiaj hauv khw muag khoom qee zaus muab koj daim coupon online stapled rau pem hauv ntej ntawm koj daim ntawv txais nyiaj lossis muab 10% luv nqi rau koj yog tias koj sau npe rau lawv tsab ntawv xov xwm. Tsis ntev, cov khw muag khoom 'kev mob taub hau dhau los ntawm kev ua yeeb yam yuav hloov pauv thaum lawv paub tab lawv cov e-lag luam platforms thiab nquag txhawb cov neeg yuav khoom kom yuav lawv cov khoom hauv online thaum nyob hauv khw (piav qhia hauv tshooj ob ntawm no series). Qhov tseeb, cov kev tshawb fawb pom tau tias muaj ntau dua ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom ua lub cev yuav khoom ntau dua lawv cuam tshuam nrog thiab tshawb fawb lub khw cov ntsiab lus hauv online.

Txog thaum nruab nrab xyoo 2020, cov khw muag khoom siab tshaj plaws yuav pib tshaj tawm thawj zaug online nkaus xwb Dub Friday thiab tom qab Christmas muag khoom. Thaum cov txiaj ntsig kev muag khoom thawj zaug yuav sib xyaw, qhov loj heev ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tshiab cov ntaub ntawv thiab cov ntaub ntawv yuav khoom yuav ua pov thawj tias yog lub pob zeb kub rau kev lag luam mus sij hawm ntev thiab kev muag khoom. Thaum lub ntsiab lus no tshwm sim, cib thiab mortar khw muag khoom yuav ua rau lawv qhov kev hloov pauv zaum kawg los ntawm kev ua tus neeg muag khoom cov nyiaj txiag rov qab mus rau nws cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb.

Qhov tseem ceeb, tag nrho cov khw muag khoom loj tshaj plaws yuav dhau los ua lag luam e-lag luam ua ntej (cov nyiaj tau los-ntseeg) tab sis yuav khaws ib feem ntawm lawv cov khw muag khoom qhib feem ntau rau kev lag luam thiab kev koom tes rau cov neeg siv khoom. Tab sis cov lus nug tseem tshuav, vim li cas ho tsis tshem cov khw muag khoom tag nrho?

Ua tus muag khoom hauv online nkaus xwb txhais tau tias:

* Kev txo qis ntawm cov nqi ruaj khov-tsawg cib thiab mortar qhov chaw txhais tau tias them nqi xauj tsev tsawg dua, them nyiaj, kev tuav pov hwm, kev tsim kho lub caij nyoog, thiab lwm yam.;

* Ib qho ntxiv ntawm cov khoom nws tuaj yeem muag hauv online, tawm tsam qhov txwv ntawm cov khoom muag hauv khw muag khoom square footage;

* Cov neeg siv khoom tsis txwv lub pas dej;

* Kev sau ntau ntawm cov neeg siv khoom cov ntaub ntawv uas tuaj yeem siv los ua lag luam zoo thiab muag cov neeg siv khoom ntau dua;

*Thiab siv lub neej yav tom ntej lub warehouse tag nrho automated thiab parcel shipping infrastructure tej zaum yuav pheej yig dua logistically.

Tam sim no, thaum cov ntsiab lus no txhua yam zoo thiab zoo, thaum kawg ntawm hnub, peb tsis yog neeg hlau. Kev yuav khoom tseem yog lub sijhawm ua si raug cai. Nws yog kev sib raug zoo. Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, nyob ntawm qhov loj me, kev sib raug zoo (xav tias cov khoom zam), thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom, cov neeg feem ntau nyiam saib thiab cuam tshuam nrog qhov lawv yuav yuav ua ntej lawv yuav. Cov neeg siv khoom muaj kev ntseeg ntau dua rau cov hom lag luam uas muaj lub khw muag khoom lawv tuaj yeem tuaj xyuas thiab cuam tshuam nrog.

Rau cov laj thawj no thiab ntau dua, yav dhau los ua lag luam online nkaus xwb, nyiam Warby Parker thiab Amazon, tau qhib lawv tus kheej cib thiab mortar khw, thiab yog nrhiav kev vam meej nrog lawv. Cov khw muag khoom cib thiab mortar muab cov khoom lag luam rau tib neeg lub cev, ib txoj hauv kev los kov thiab hnov lub hom phiaj hauv txoj kev uas tsis muaj lub vev xaib tuaj yeem muab tau. Tsis tas li ntawd, nyob ntawm seb koj nyob qhov twg thiab seb koj cov sijhawm ua haujlwm tsis tuaj yeem pom, cov chaw hauv lub cev no ua lub chaw yooj yim los khaws cov khoom koj yuav hauv online.

Vim tias qhov sib txawv no, koj qhov kev paub dhau los hauv lub khw muag khoom hauv xyoo 2020 yuav txawv dua li niaj hnub no. Tsis txhob tsom mus rau tsuas yog muag koj cov khoom lag luam, cov khw muag khoom yuav tsom rau kev muag koj lub npe thiab ntawm kev paub txog kev sib raug zoo uas koj muaj hauv lawv lub khw.

Lub khw décors yuav tsim tau zoo dua thiab kim dua. Cov khoom yuav raug nthuav tawm ntau dua. Cov qauv thiab lwm yam dawb swag yuav raug xa tawm ntau dua. Cov kev ua ub no hauv khw thiab pab pawg cov lus qhia ncaj qha txhawb nqa lub khw muag khoom, nws cov kab lis kev cai, thiab qhov xwm ntawm nws cov khoom yuav yog qhov qub. Thiab raws li rau cov neeg sawv cev ntawm cov neeg siv khoom (cov neeg sawv cev hauv khw), lawv yuav raug txiav txim sib npaug ntawm kev muag khoom lawv tsim, nrog rau cov naj npawb ntawm cov khoom lag luam zoo hauv khw thiab kev xa xov app hais txog lawv tsim.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, qhov sib txawv nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej yuav pom kev poob nyiaj ntawm cov lag luam e-lag luam ntshiab thiab ntshiab cib thiab mortar hom. Nyob rau hauv lawv qhov chaw, peb yuav pom qhov nce ntawm 'nias thiab mortar' hom, cov no yog cov tuam txhab hybrid uas yuav ua tiav qhov sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam e-lag luam thiab cov khw muag khoom hauv tib neeg.

Fitting chav thiab nias thiab mortar yav tom ntej

Oddly txaus, los ntawm nruab nrab-2020s, cov chav haum yuav dhau los ua lub cim ntawm kev nyem thiab mortar khw muag khoom kiv puag ncig.

Rau cov khoom lag luam zam, tshwj xeeb, cov chav haum yuav nce zuj zus los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm lub khw tsim thiab cov peev txheej. Lawv yuav loj hlob loj, ntau luxurious thiab muaj ntau yam technology ntim rau hauv lawv. Qhov no qhia txog qhov kev txaus siab uas muaj ntau qhov kev txiav txim siab ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom tau tshwm sim hauv chav fitting. Nws yog qhov muag muag tshwm sim, yog li vim li cas ho tsis rov xav txog nws tus neeg muag khoom nyiam?

Ua ntej, xaiv cov khw muag khoom yuav ua kom zoo dua lawv cov chav haum nrog lub hom phiaj kom tau txais txhua tus neeg yuav khoom uas taug kev hauv lawv lub khw kom nkag mus rau chav haum. Qhov no yuav suav nrog ntxiv browseable khoom screen qhov twg cov neeg siv khoom tuaj yeem xaiv cov khaub ncaws thiab qhov ntau thiab tsawg uas lawv xav sim. Ib tus neeg ua haujlwm yuav xaiv cov khaub ncaws uas tau xaiv thiab tom qab ntawd xa ntawv mus rau tus neeg yuav khoom thaum lawv chav fittings npaj txhij nrog lawv cov khaub ncaws zoo zoo rau lawv sim.

Lwm cov khw muag khoom yuav tsom rau qhov social nam ntawm kev yuav khoom. Cov poj niam tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyiam mus kav khw hauv pab pawg, xaiv ntau yam khaub ncaws los sim, thiab (nyob ntawm seb tus nqi ntawm cov khaub ncaws) tuaj yeem siv sijhawm ntev li ob teev hauv chav fitting. Qhov ntawd yog ntau lub sij hawm siv nyob rau hauv lub khw, yog li cov hom yuav ua rau damn paub tseeb tias nws tau siv los txhawb lub hom nyob rau hauv lub teeb pom kev zoo - xav plush couches, khoom kim heev wallpaper keeb kwm yav dhau rau instagraming outfits, thiab tej zaum refreshments.

Lwm chav fittings kuj tseem muaj cov phab ntsa mounted ntsiav tshuaj uas tso saib cov khoom muag hauv khw, tso cai rau cov neeg yuav khoom tuaj yeem xauj khaub ncaws ntau dua, thiab nrog tus kais ntawm lub vijtsam, ceeb toom rau cov neeg sawv cev hauv khw kom coj lawv cov khaub ncaws ntau dua los sim yam tsis tau tawm hauv chav haum. Thiab ntawm chav kawm, cov ntsiav tshuaj no tseem yuav ua rau kev yuav khoom tam sim ntawm cov khaub ncaws, tsis yog tus neeg yuav khoom yuav tsum tau mus ncig thiab tos hauv kab ntawm tus neeg khaws nyiaj tom qab sim cov khaub ncaws.

Lub khw yuav tsis ploj mus sai sai

Raws li tau hais ua ntej, pundits thoob plaws hauv thaum ntxov 2010s kwv yees lub caij nplooj zeeg ntawm khw khw, nrog rau lub caij nplooj zeeg ntawm cib thiab mortar chains. Thiab thaum nws muaj tseeb tias ntau lub khw muag khoom tau kaw thoob plaws hauv North America, qhov tseeb yog tias lub khw yuav nyob ntawm no, txawm li cas los xij e-lag luam loj npaum li cas. Thiab qhov ntawd yuav tsum tsis txhob tuaj raws li kev xav tsis thoob. Hauv ntau lub nroog thiab cov zej zog, lub khw yog lub hauv paus hauv zej zog, thiab ntau txoj hauv kev, lawv yog cov chaw hauv zej zog ntiag tug.

Thiab raws li cov khw muag khoom pib tsom mus rau lawv lub khw muag khoom ntawm kev muag cov khoom lag luam, cov khw muag khoom xav tau tshaj plaws yuav txhawb nqa qhov kev hloov pauv los ntawm kev muab cov kev paub zoo tshaj plaws uas txhawb nqa cov kev paub txog kev lag luam tau tsim hauv cov khw muag khoom thiab cov khw noj mov uas tuav nws. Cov kev paub txog macro no suav nrog cov piv txwv xws li cov khw muag khoom ua kom zoo nkauj thaum hnub so, tsis pub leej twg paub lossis them nyiaj rau "tus kheej" social media-shareable pawg tshwm sim, thiab tso chaw rau pej xeem rau cov xwm txheej hauv zej zog ntawm nws thaj chaw - xav tias kev lag luam ua liaj ua teb, kos duab kos duab, doggy yoga, thiab lwm yam.

Cov khw kuj tseem yuav siv cov khw muag khoom app hais hauv tshooj ib ntawm no series uas yuav cia cov khw muag khoom paub txog koj cov keeb kwm kev yuav khoom thiab tus cwj pwm. Txawm li cas los xij, cov khw yuav siv cov apps no txhawm rau txheeb xyuas qhov koj mus ntsib ntau npaum li cas thiab cov khw lossis cov khw noj mov twg koj mus ntsib ntau tshaj. Qhov thib ob koj taug kev mus rau yav tom ntej "smart mall," koj yuav tau txais kev ceeb toom ntawm koj lub xov tooj lossis tsom iav qhov tseeb txog cov khw muag khoom tshiab tshaj plaws, cov xwm txheej hauv khw, thiab kev muag khoom tshwj xeeb uas yuav txaus siab rau koj.

Nyob rau theem sab nraud, los ntawm 2030s, xaiv cov khw yuav muaj lawv cov phab ntsa thiab cov plag tsev laced nrog cov duab digital uas yuav khiav kev sib tham sib tshaj tawm (lossis cov lus qhia hauv khw) thiab yuav ua raws (lossis qhia) koj txhua qhov chaw koj taug kev hauv khw. Yog li pib lub hnub nyoog ntawm trackable, online ad remarketing nkag mus rau hauv lub ntiaj teb offline.

Cov khoom kim heev lo rau cib thiab mortar

Ntau npaum li cov qauv sau tseg saum toj no tuaj yeem hais txog kev sib koom ua ke ntau dua ntawm kev lag luam hauv khw thiab kev lag luam e-lag luam, qee cov khw muag khoom yuav xaiv tawm tsam cov nplej. Tshwj xeeb, rau cov khw muag khoom high-end - cov chaw uas tus nqi ntawm qhov kev sib tham nruab nrab ntawm kev yuav khoom yog tsawg kawg yog $ 10,000 - kev ua lag luam uas lawv txhawb nqa yuav tsis hloov ntau npaum li cas.

Cov khw muag khoom kim heev thiab cov khw muag khoom tsis ua rau lawv cov billions ntawm kom muaj nuj nqis xws li H&M's lossis Zara's ntawm lub ntiaj teb. Lawv ua lawv cov nyiaj raws li qhov zoo ntawm cov kev xav thiab kev ua neej uas lawv muab rau cov neeg siv khoom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo uas yuav lawv cov khoom kim heev.

Tseeb, lawv yuav siv high-end tech los taug qab cov kev yuav khoom ntawm lawv cov neeg siv khoom thiab tos txais cov neeg yuav khoom nrog cov kev pabcuam tus kheej (raws li tau teev tseg hauv tshooj ib ntawm cov koob no), tab sis poob $ 50,000 ntawm lub hnab tes tsis yog qhov kev txiav txim siab koj ua hauv online, nws yog qhov kev txiav txim siab khoom kim heev khw muag khoom zoo tshaj plaws hauv tus neeg. Qhov tseeb, ib txoj kev tshawb fawb los ntawm Euromonitor sau tseg tias 94 feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov khoom kim heev hauv ntiaj teb no tseem muaj nyob hauv khw.

Vim li no, e-lag luam yuav tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb rau sab saum toj, feem ntau tshwj xeeb hom. High-end khoom kim heev yog ua lag luam loj los ntawm kev ua tib zoo xaiv cov kev txhawb nqa thiab cov lus ntawm lub qhov ncauj ntawm cov chav kawm sab saud. Thiab nco ntsoov, cov nplua nuj super tsis tshua yuav hauv online, lawv muaj cov tsim qauv thiab cov khw muag khoom tuaj rau lawv.

Qhov thib plaub thiab zaum kawg ntawm lub khw muag khoom yav tom ntej no yuav tsom mus rau kev coj noj coj ua ntawm cov neeg siv khoom ntawm xyoo 2030 thiab 2060. Peb ua tib zoo saib ntawm kev sib raug zoo, kev lag luam, thiab kev siv thev naus laus zis uas yuav ua rau peb lub neej tom ntej kev yuav khoom.