Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Southeast Asia; Kugwa kwa akambuku: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 12:46

Kuneneratu kosagwirizana kumeneku kudzayang'ana kwambiri ku Southeast Asia geopolitics pamene ikukhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerenga, muwona Southeast Asia yomwe ili ndi njala, mphepo yamkuntho yamphamvu, ndi kukwera kwa maulamuliro aulamuliro kudera lonselo. Pakadali pano, muwonanso Japan ndi South Korea (omwe tikuwonjezera pano pazifukwa zomwe tafotokoza pambuyo pake) akupeza phindu lapadera kuchokera kukusintha kwanyengo, bola ngati akuwongolera mwanzeru maubwenzi awo opikisana ndi China ndi North Korea.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale ku Southeast Asia - silinachotsedwepo. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani, kuphatikiza Gwynne Dyer, wolemba wamkulu pankhaniyi. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Kumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia amamira pansi pa nyanja

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwatenthetsa derali mpaka maiko akumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia akuyenera kulimbana ndi chilengedwe panjira zingapo.

Mvula ndi chakudya

Podzafika kumapeto kwa zaka za m’ma 2040, mbali yaikulu ya kum’mwera chakum’maŵa kwa Asia—makamaka Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, ndi Vietnam—adzachepetsedwa kwambiri m’kati mwa mtsinje wa Mekong. Ili ndi vuto poganizira kuti mtsinje wa Mekong umadyetsa mayiko ambiri osungirako ulimi ndi madzi opanda mchere.

N’chifukwa chiyani zimenezi zingachitike? Chifukwa mtsinje wa Mekong umadyetsedwa makamaka ndi kumapiri a Himalaya ndi kumapiri a Tibetan. M'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, kusintha kwa nyengo kudzasintha pang'onopang'ono pamadzi oundana akale omwe amakhala pamwamba pa mapiriwa. Poyamba, kutentha kwadzaoneni kudzachititsa kusefukira kwa madzi kwa m'chilimwe kwa zaka zambiri pamene madzi oundana ndi matalala a chipale chofeŵa amasungunuka m'mitsinje, kufalikira kumayiko ozungulira.

Koma tsiku likadzafika (chakumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040) pamene mapiri a Himalaya adzaphwanyidwa ndi madzi oundana, mtsinje wa Mekong udzasanduka mthunzi wa momwe unalili kale. Kuwonjezera pa izi, nyengo yotentha idzasokoneza momwe mvula imagwa m'madera, ndipo posakhalitsa derali likukumana ndi chilala choopsa.

Komabe, mayiko monga Malaysia, Indonesia, ndi Philippines sadzakhala ndi kusintha kwa mvula ndipo madera ena akhoza kukhala ndi chinyontho. Koma mosasamala kanthu za kuchuluka kwa mvula yomwe maiko onsewa amapeza (monga momwe tafotokozera m’mawu athu oyambirira a kusintha kwa nyengo), nyengo yofunda m’derali idzawonongabe kwambiri milingo yake yonse yopangira chakudya.

Izi ndizofunikira chifukwa dera la Kumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia limalima mpunga ndi chimanga chochuluka padziko lonse lapansi. Kuwonjezeka kwa madigiri 30 Celsius kungachititse kuti zokolola zitsike mpaka XNUMX peresenti kapena kupitirira apo, zomwe zingawononge mphamvu ya dera lodzidyetsa lokha komanso kuthekera kwake kutumiza mpunga ndi chimanga kumisika yapadziko lonse (zimene zimapangitsa kuti mitengo ikhale yotsika mtengo yazakudya zazikuluzikuluzi. padziko lonse lapansi).

Kumbukirani, mosiyana ndi m'mbuyomu, ulimi wamakono umakonda kudalira mitundu yochepa ya zomera kuti ikule pamakampani. Takhala tikuweta mbewu, kaya zaka masauzande ambiri kapena kuswana ndi manja kapena zaka zambiri zakusintha ma genetic ndipo chifukwa chake zimatha kumera ndikukula kutentha kukakhala "Goldilocks bwino."

Mwachitsanzo, maphunziro oyendetsedwa ndi University of Reading anapeza kuti mitundu iwiri ya mpunga yomwe imabzalidwa kwambiri, ya m’zigwa imasonyeza ndi upland japonica, zinali zosatetezeka kwambiri chifukwa cha kutentha kwapamwamba. Makamaka, ngati kutentha kupitirira madigiri 35 Celsius pa nthawi ya maluwa, zomerazo zimakhala zopanda kanthu, zomwe sizimapereka mbewu zochepa. Mayiko ambiri a m’madera otentha kumene mpunga uli chakudya chachikulu kwambiri, ali m’mphepete mwa chigawo cha kutentha kwa Goldilocks, choncho kutentha kwina kulikonse kungabweretse tsoka.

Mkuntho

Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia kumakumana kale ndi mvula yamkuntho yamvula chaka chilichonse chaka chilichonse, yoipa kwambiri kuposa ina. Koma pamene nyengo ikuwomba, zochitika zanyengozi zimakula kwambiri. Gawo limodzi lililonse la kutentha kwanyengo limafanana ndi mvula yochulukirapo 15 peresenti mumlengalenga, kutanthauza kuti mphepo zamkunthozi zidzayendetsedwa ndi madzi ochulukirapo (kutanthauza kuti azikulirakulira) zikafika pamtunda. Kuwomba kwapachaka kwa mphepo zamkuntho zomwe zikuchulukirachulukirazi kudzasokoneza ndalama za maboma am'madera kuti amangenso mipanda yolimba ya nyengo, komanso zitha kuchititsa kuti mamiliyoni ambiri othawa kwawo omwe athawa kwawo athawire mkati mwa mayikowa, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale mutu wosiyanasiyana.

Mizinda yakumira

Kutentha kumatanthawuza kuti madzi oundana ambiri ochokera ku Greenland ndi Antarctic amasungunuka m'nyanja. Izi, kuphatikiza mfundo yakuti nyanja yotentha imafufuma (ie madzi ofunda amakula, pamene madzi ozizira amaundana ndi ayezi), zikutanthauza kuti madzi a m'nyanja adzakwera kwambiri. Kuwonjezeka kumeneku kuyika mizinda yomwe ili ndi anthu ambiri ku Southeast Asia pachiwopsezo, popeza ambiri aiwo ali pamtunda kapena pansi pa nyanja ya 2015.

Choncho musadabwe kuti tsiku lina mudzamva pa nkhani yakuti mphepo yamkuntho yamphamvu kwambiri inakokera madzi a m’nyanja okwana kwa kanthaŵi kapena kumiza mzindawo. Bangkok, mwachitsanzo, akhoza kukhala pansi pa madzi mamita awiri pofika chaka cha 2030 pasakhale zotchinga za kusefukira kwa madzi kuti zitetezedwe. Zochitika ngati izi zitha kupangitsa kuti anthu ambiri othawa kwawo asamuke kuti maboma azisamalira.

Kusamvana

Choncho tiyeni tiyike zosakaniza pamwamba pamodzi. Tili ndi anthu omwe akuchulukirachulukira-podzafika 2040, padzakhala anthu 750 miliyoni okhala ku Southeast Asia (633 miliyoni pofika 2015). Tidzakhala ndi chakudya chochepa chochokera ku zokolola zomwe zalephera chifukwa cha nyengo. Tidzakhala ndi mamiliyoni a anthu othawa kwawo omwe athawa kwawo kuchokera ku mvula yamkuntho yomwe ikuchulukirachulukira komanso kusefukira kwamadzi m'mizinda yotsika kwambiri kuposa nyanja. Ndipo tidzakhala ndi maboma omwe ndalama zawo zimakhala zolephereka chifukwa cholipira chaka chilichonse chithandizo chothandizira pakagwa masoka, makamaka pamene amasonkhanitsa ndalama zochepa kuchokera ku msonkho wochepa wa anthu omwe athawa kwawo komanso chakudya chotumizidwa kunja.

Mutha kuona kumene izi zikupita: Tidzakhala ndi anthu mamiliyoni ambiri anjala ndi othedwa nzeru omwe ali ndi zifukwa zomveka zokwiyira chifukwa maboma awo alibe thandizo. Chilengedwechi chimawonjezera mwayi wa mayiko omwe alephera chifukwa cha zigawenga zodziwika bwino, komanso kukwera kwa maboma adzidzidzi omwe amayendetsedwa ndi asitikali kudera lonselo.

Japan, chigawo chakum'mawa

Japan mwachiwonekere si gawo lakumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia, koma ikufinyidwa muno popeza sikokwanira kuti dziko lino livomereze nkhani yakeyake. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa dziko la Japan lidzadalitsidwa ndi nyengo yomwe idzakhalabe yabwino mpaka m'ma 2040, chifukwa cha malo ake apadera. M'malo mwake, kusintha kwanyengo kumatha kupindulitsa Japan chifukwa cha nyengo yokulirapo komanso mvula yambiri. Ndipo popeza ili dziko lachitatu pachuma chambiri padziko lonse lapansi, Japan ingakwanitse mosavuta kupanga zotchinga zambiri za kusefukira kwa madzi kuti ateteze mizinda yake yakudoko.

Koma poyang’anizana ndi kuipiraipira kwa nyengo ya dziko, dziko la Japan likhoza kutenga njira ziŵiri: Njira yabwino ingakhale kukhala wodzipatula, kudzipatula ku mavuto a dziko lozungulira ilo. Mwinanso, angagwiritse ntchito kusintha kwa nyengo ngati mwayi wopititsa patsogolo mphamvu zake zachigawo pogwiritsa ntchito chuma chake chokhazikika komanso mafakitale kuti athandize oyandikana nawo kuthana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, makamaka pogwiritsa ntchito ndalama zolepheretsa kusefukira kwa madzi ndi ntchito yomanganso.

Ngati Japan ikadachita izi, ndizochitika zomwe zingamupangitse mpikisano wachindunji ndi China, yemwe angawone zoyesererazi ngati chiwopsezo chochepa ku ulamuliro wawo wachigawo. Izi zitha kukakamiza Japan kuti ipangenso mphamvu zake zankhondo (makamaka gulu lake lankhondo) kuti litetezere kwa mnansi wake wofuna kutchuka. Ngakhale kuti palibe mbali iliyonse yomwe ingathe kumenya nkhondo yanthawi zonse, kusintha kwa nyengo m'derali kudzakhala kovutirapo, popeza maulamulirowa amapikisana kuti ayanjidwe ndi zothandizira kuchokera kumadera omwe akukhudzidwa ndi nyengo yaku Southeast Asia.

South ndi North Korea

Ma Korea akufinyidwa muno pazifukwa zofanana ndi za Japan. South Korea igawana zabwino zonse monga Japan pankhani ya kusintha kwa nyengo. Kusiyana kokha ndiko kuti kuseri kwa malire ake akumpoto kuli mnansi wosakhazikika wokhala ndi zida za nyukiliya.

Ngati dziko la North Korea silingathe kuchitapo kanthu kuti lidyetse ndi kuteteza anthu ake ku kusintha kwa nyengo pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, ndiye kuti (chifukwa cha bata) South Korea ikhoza kulowererapo ndi chakudya chopanda malire. Zingakhale zokonzeka kuchita izi chifukwa mosiyana ndi Japan, South Korea sidzatha kulimbikitsa asilikali ake motsutsana ndi China ndi Japan. Komanso, sizikudziwika ngati South Korea idzatha kudalira chitetezo kuchokera ku US, omwe akukumana nawo. nkhani zake zanyengo.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Choyamba, kumbukirani kuti zomwe mwawerengazi ndi kulosera chabe, osati zenizeni. Ndilonso zoneneratu zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingathe ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa 2040s kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo (zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwe mu mndandanda womaliza). Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa: