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Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokushoda kokudla ngeminyaka yawo-2040: Ikusasa Lokudla P1

ISIKWELETU SOMTHETHO: Quantumrun

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokushoda kokudla ngeminyaka yawo-2040: Ikusasa Lokudla P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
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Uma kuziwa ezitshalweni nasezilwaneni esizidlayo, imithombo yezindaba yethu ivame ukugxila endleleni eyenziwe ngayo, kubiza malini, noma ukuthi ilungiswa kanjani kusetshenziswa. izendlalelo eziningi ze-bacon kanye nezingubo ezingadingekile ze-deep fry batter. Nokho, akuvamile ukuthi abezindaba bethu bakhulume ngokutholakala kwangempela kokudla. Kubantu abaningi, lokho kuyinkinga Yezwe Lesithathu.

Ngokudabukisayo, lokho ngeke kube njalo ngama-2040s. Ngaleso sikhathi, ukushoda kokudla kuzoba yinkinga enkulu emhlabeni wonke, okuzoba nomthelela omkhulu ekudleni kwethu.

(“Eesh, David, uzwakala njenge Malthusian. Thola umuntu obambekayo!” isho nina nonke osomnotho bokudla enifunda lokhu. Ngiphendula ngithi, “Cha, ngingumuntu othanda u-Malthusian kuphela, abanye bami bathanda inyama eshisekayo mayelana nokudla kwakhe okuthosiwe okujulile kwekusasa. Futhi, nginike isikweletu futhi ufunde kuze kube sekupheleni.)

Lolu chungechunge olunezingxenye ezinhlanu olumayelana nokudla luzohlola uchungechunge lwezihloko ezihlobene nokuthi sizozigcina kanjani izisu zethu zigcwele emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Ingxenye yokuqala (ngezansi) izohlola ibhomu lesikhathi esizayo lokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nomthelela wako ekuhlinzekeni kokudla emhlabeni wonke; engxenyeni yesibili, sizokhuluma ngokuthi ukugcwala ngokweqile kuzoholela kanjani ku-“Meat Shock of 2035” nokuthi kungani sonke sizoba ngabadla imifino ngenxa yako; engxenyeni yesithathu, sizoxoxa ngama-GMO nama-superfoods; kulandelwa ukulunguza ngaphakathi kwamapulazi ahlakaniphile, aqondile, nangaphansi kwengxenye yesine; ekugcineni, engxenyeni yesihlanu, sizodalula ikusasa lokudla komuntu—ukusikisela: izitshalo, izimbungulu, inyama ye-in-vitro, nokudla kokwenziwa.

Ngakho-ke ake siqale izinto ngethrendi ezololonga kakhulu lolu chungechunge: ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyeza

Uma ungezwanga, sesivele sibhale uchungechunge oluyingqophamlando kulo Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu, ngakho-ke ngeke sishaye isikhathi esiningi sichaza isihloko lapha. Ngenhloso yengxoxo yethu, sizogxila kulawa maphuzu abalulekile alandelayo:

Okokuqala, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungokoqobo futhi sisendleleni yokubona isimo sezulu sikhula ngokushisa kwama-degree Celsius amabili ngo-2040s (noma mhlawumbe maduze nje). Amadigri amabili lapha ayisilinganiso, okusho ukuthi ezinye izindawo zizoshisa kakhulu kunamadigri amabili nje.

Kukho konke ukuphakama kwedigri elilodwa lokufudumala kwesimo sezulu, inani eliphelele lokuhwamuka lizokhuphuka cishe ngamaphesenti angu-15. Lokhu kuzoba nomthelela omubi enanini lemvula ezindaweni eziningi zokulima, kanye nasemazingeni amanzi emifuleni namachibi amanzi ahlanzekile emhlabeni jikelele.

Izitshalo ziyi-divas enjalo

Kulungile, umhlaba uya ukufudumala futhi ukoma, kodwa kungani lokho kuyinto enkulu kangaka uma kuziwa ekudleni?

Nokho, ukulima kwesimanje kuvame ukuthembela ezinhlobonhlobo zezitshalo ezimbalwa uma kuqhathaniswa ukuze zikhule ngezinga lezezimboni—izitshalo zasekhaya ezikhiqizwa phakathi nezinkulungwane zeminyaka zokuzalaniswa ngezandla noma inqwaba yeminyaka yokuguqulwa kwezakhi zofuzo. Inkinga ukuthi izitshalo eziningi zingakhula kuphela endaweni ethile lapho izinga lokushisa lilungile. Kungakho ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyingozi kakhulu: kuzophusha eziningi zalezi zitshalo zasekhaya ngaphandle kwezindawo ezikhulayo ezithandwayo, kukhuphule ubungozi bokuhluleka kwezitshalo okukhulu emhlabeni jikelele.

Ngokwesibonelo, izifundo eziqhutshwa yi-University of Reading ithole ukuthi i-lowland indica kanye ne-upland japonica, izinhlobo ezimbili zerayisi ezitshalwa kakhulu, zazisengozini kakhulu emazingeni okushisa aphezulu. Ngokukhethekile, uma izinga lokushisa lingaphezu kuka-35 degrees Celsius ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza kwazo, izitshalo zizoba yinyumba, zinikeze okusanhlamvu okuncane. Amazwe amaningi asezindaweni ezishisayo nase-Asia lapho irayisi liwukudla okuyisisekelo okuyinhloko kakade esemaphethelweni ale ndawo yokushisa ye-Goldilocks, ngakho noma yikuphi ukufudumala okwengeziwe kungase kusho inhlekelele.

Esinye isibonelo sihlanganisa ukolweni omuhle, wakudala. Ucwaningo luthole ukuthi kuwo wonke amadigri Celsius akhuphuka izinga lokushisa, ukukhiqizwa kukakolweni kuzokwehla amaphesenti ayisithupha emhlabeni jikelele.

Ukwengeza, ngo-2050 ingxenye yendawo kwakudingeka itshale izinhlobo ezimbili zekhofi ezivelele kakhulu—i-Arabica (coffea arabica) ne-Robusta (i-coffea canephora)—izokhula. ayisafaneleki zokulima. Kumilutha kabhontshisi onsundu laphaya, cabanga umhlaba ongenakho ikhofi, noma ikhofi elibiza ngokuphindwe kane kunalokho elikwenzayo manje.

Bese kuba khona iwayini. A isifundo esinempikiswano uveze ukuthi ngo-2050, izifunda ezinkulu ezikhiqiza iwayini ngeke zisakwazi ukusekela i-viticulture (ukutshalwa kwezihlahla zomvini). Eqinisweni, singalindela ukulahlekelwa ngamaphesenti angama-25 kuya kwangu-75 omhlaba okhiqiza iwayini wamanje. RIP Amawayini aseFrance. RIP Napa Valley.

Imithelela yesifunda yomhlaba oshisayo

Ngike ngasho ngaphambili ukuthi ama-degree Celcius amabili okufudumala kwesimo sezulu kuyisilinganiso nje, ukuthi ezinye izindawo zizoshisa kakhulu kunamadigri amabili nje kuphela. Ngeshwa, izifunda ezizohlushwa kakhulu amazinga okushisa aphezulu futhi yilezo lapho sitshala khona ukudla kwethu okuningi—ikakhulukazi amazwe aphakathi koMhlaba. Ama-longitudes angu-30-45.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, amazwe asathuthuka nawo azoba phakathi kwamazwe athinteke kakhulu kulokhu kufudumala. NgokukaWilliam Cline, isikhulu esiphezulu e-Peterson Institute for International Economics, ukunyuka ngama-degree Celcius amabili kuya kwamane kungaholela ekulahlekeni kokuvunwa kokudla okungamaphesenti angaba ngu-20-25 e-Afrika naseLatin America, kanye namaphesenti angu-30 noma ngaphezulu eNdiya. .

Sekukonke, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungabangela 18% yehle ekukhiqizweni kokudla emhlabeni ngo-2050, njengoba nje nomphakathi womhlaba wonke udinga ukukhiqiza okungenani amaphesenti angama-50 Okuningi ukudla ngo-2050 (ngokweWorld Bank) kunalokho esikwenzayo namuhla. Khumbula ukuthi njengamanje sisebenzisa amaphesenti angu-80 omhlaba olimekayo—olingana neNingizimu Melika—futhi kuzodingeka silime insimu elingana neBrazil ukuze sondle bonke abanye abantu bethu besikhathi esizayo— ngingabi nalo namuhla nasesikhathini esizayo.

I-geopolitics ekhuthazwa ukudla nokungazinzi

Kwenzeka into ehlekisayo lapho kwenzeka ukushoda kokudla noma ukwenyuka kwentengo okwedlulele: abantu bavame ukuba nemizwelo futhi abanye baba ngabantu abangenasimilo. Into yokuqala eyenzekayo ngemva kwalokho ngokuvamile ihlanganisa ukugijimela ezimakethe zegrosa lapho abantu bethenga khona futhi baqoqe yonke imikhiqizo yokudla etholakalayo. Ngemuva kwalokho, kunezimo ezimbili ezihlukene ezidlalayo:

Emazweni athuthukile, abavoti bavusa intukuthelo futhi uhulumeni uyangenelela ukuze anikeze usizo lokudla ngokulinganisa kuze kube yilapho ukudla okuthengwa ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe kubuyisela izinto kwesijwayelekile. Khonamanjalo, emazweni asathuthuka, lapho uhulumeni engenazo izinsiza zokuthenga noma ukukhiqizela abantu bakhe ukudla okwengeziwe, abavoti baqala ukubhikisha, bese beqala ukuxova. Uma ukuntuleka kokudla kuqhubeka isikhathi esingaphezu kwesonto noma amabili, i- imibhikisho nezibhelu zingabulala.

Ukuqubuka kwalolu hlobo kubangela usongo olukhulu ekulondekeni komhlaba wonke, njengoba kuyizizalela zokungazinzi okungasakazekela emazweni angomakhelwane lapho ukudla kulawulwa kangcono khona. Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kungazinzi kokudla emhlabeni wonke kuzoholela ekushintsheni kokulingana kwamandla omhlaba.

Isibonelo, njengoba uguquko lwesimo sezulu luqhubeka, ngeke kube nabalahlekelwayo kuphela; kuzoba nabaphumelele abambalwa. Ikakhulukazi, iCanada, iRussia, kanye namazwe ambalwa aseScandinavia empeleni azozuza ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu, njengoba ama-tundra awo aseqandisiwe azoncibilika ukuze akhulule izifunda ezinkulu zokulima. Manje sizokwenza umcabango ohlanyayo wokuthi i-Canada kanye nezifunda zaseScandinavia ngeke zibe izikhulu zezempi nezombusazwe nganoma yisiphi isikhathi kuleli khulu leminyaka, ngakho-ke lokho kushiya iRussia nekhadi elinamandla okufanele ilidlale.

Cabanga ngakho ngombono waseRussia. Yizwe elikhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni. Izoba ngenye yezindawo ezimbalwa zezwe ezizokwandisa umkhiqizo wayo wezolimo lapho nje omakhelwane bayo abazungezile eYurophu, e-Afrika, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, nase-Asia behlushwa ukuswelakala kokudla okubangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Inamasosha kanye nezikhali zenuzi ukuze ivikele ukudla kwayo okuningi. Futhi ngemuva kokuthi umhlaba usushintshe ngokuphelele ezimotweni zikagesi ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2030 - ukwehlisa imali etholwayo kawoyela yezwe - iRussia izobe ilangazelela ukuxhaphaza noma iyiphi imali esanda kutholwa etholakalayo. Uma kubulawa kahle, lokhu kungaba yithuba lekhulu leminyaka laseRussia lokuthola kabusha isikhundla salo njengombuso onamandla womhlaba, njengoba nakuba singaphila ngaphandle kukawoyela, asikwazi ukuphila ngaphandle kokudla.

Yiqiniso, iRussia ngeke ikwazi ukugibela ama-roughshod emhlabeni wonke. Zonke izifunda ezinkulu zomhlaba nazo zizodlala izandla zazo ezihlukile ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu esisha emhlabeni. Kodwa ukucabanga ukuthi yonke le siphithiphithi ibangelwa okuthile okuyisisekelo njengokudla!

(Inothi eseceleni: ungafunda futhi umbono wethu onemininingwane eminingi we IsiRashiya, i-geopolitics yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.)

Ibhomu labantu elizayo

Kepha njengoba nje ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzodlala indima enkulu esikhathini esizayo sokudla, kuzoba nokunye ukuthambekela kokuzamazama komhlaba okulinganayo: isibalo sabantu esikhula emhlabeni wonke. Ngo-2040, inani labantu emhlabeni lizokhula libe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye. Kodwa akulona kakhulu inani lemilomo elambile ezoba yinkinga; kuyimvelo yezifiso zabo. Futhi yileso isihloko ingxenye yesibili yalolu chungechunge ngekusasa lokudla!