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ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Yini ezothatha indawo yobungxiwankulu bendabuko: Ikusasa lomnotho P8

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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ULwesithathu, 09/16/2020 - 03:52

Okuningi kwalokho ozokufunda kuzozwakala kungenakwenzeka uma kubhekwa isimo sezepolitiki sanamuhla. Isizathu siwukuthi ukwedlula izahluko ezedlule kulolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lomnotho, lesi sahluko sokugcina sikhuluma ngokungaziwa, inkathi emlandweni wesintu ongakaze ube khona, inkathi abaningi bethu esiyobhekana nayo ekuphileni kwethu.

Lesi sahluko sihlola ukuthi uhlelo lonxiwankulu sonke esithembele kulo luzoguquka kanjani lube yipharadigm entsha. Sizokhuluma ngamathrendi azokwenza lolu shintsho lugwemeke. Futhi sizokhuluma ngezinga eliphakeme lomcebo lesi simiso esisha esizolethela isintu.

Ushintsho olusheshayo luholela ekuntengantengeni kokuzamazama komhlaba kanye nokuntengantenga komnotho womhlaba

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi singene kuleli kusasa elinethemba, kubalulekile ukuthi siqonde isikhathi esimnyama, esiseduze esizayo esizodlula kuso sonke phakathi kuka-2020 kuya ku-2040. Ukuze senze lokhu, ake siqhubekisele phambili ukuphindaphinda okufingqiwe kakhulu kwalokho esikufundile kulokhu. uchungechunge kuze kube manje.

Kule minyaka engu-20 ezayo, inani elikhulu labantu abaneminyaka yobudala yokusebenza lizongena empeshenini.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, imakethe izobona intuthuko enkulu ezinhlelweni zamarobhothi nezobuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI) unyaka nonyaka.
Lokhu kushoda kwabasebenzi esikhathini esizayo kuzophinde kube nomthelela kulokhu kuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe okumashayo njengoba kuzophoqa imakethe ukuthi itshale imali kubuchwepheshe obusha, okonga abasebenzi kanye nesofthiwe ezokwenza izinkampani zikhiqize kakhudlwana, konke lokhu kunciphisa inani eliphelele labasebenzi abadinga ukusebenza ( noma kungenzeka kakhulu, ngokungaqashi abasebenzi abasha/abazobashintshayo ngemva kokuthatha umhlalaphansi kwabasebenzi abakhona).
Uma isisunguliwe, inguqulo entsha ngayinye yalezi zindlela zobuchwepheshe zokonga izohlunga kuzo zonke izimboni, ixoshe izigidi zabasebenzi. Futhi nakuba lokhu kuntuleka kwemisebenzi kwezobuchwepheshe kungeyona into entsha, ijubane elisheshayo lokuthuthuka kwerobhothi ne-AI okwenza lolu shintsho kube nzima ukuzijwayeza.
Okuxakayo ukuthi uma imali eyanele isitshalwe kumarobhothi kanye ne-AI, sizophinde sibone insalela yemisebenzi yabantu, noma ngabe sibheka ubukhulu obuncane beminyaka yokusebenza. Lokhu kunengqondo uma kubhekwa izigidi zabantu ubuchwepheshe obuzophoqa ukuthi bangasebenzi futhi bangasebenzi.
Insalela yemisebenzi yabantu emakethe isho ukuthi abantu abaningi bazoqhudelana ngemisebenzi embalwa; lokhu kwenza kube lula kubaqashi ukucindezela amaholo noma ukumisa amaholo. Esikhathini esedlule, izimo ezinjalo bezizosebenza futhi ukumisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kube ubuchwepheshe obusha njengoba umsebenzi wabantu oshibhile wawuhlala ushibhile kunokubiza emishinini yasefekthri. Kodwa emhlabeni wethu omusha onesibindi, izinga amarobhothi ne-AI athuthukayo lisho ukuthi azoshibha futhi akhiqize kakhudlwana kunezisebenzi ezingabantu, ngisho noma kuthiwa abantu basebenzela mahhala.
Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-2030, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye namazinga aphansi okuqashwa ayoba amahlalakhona. Amaholo azokwehla kuzo zonke izimboni. Futhi ukuhlukaniswa kwengcebo phakathi kwabacebile nabampofu kuzokhula kakhulu.
Ukusetshenziswa (ukuchitha) kuzoncipha. Kuzoqhuma amabhamuza esikweletu. Umnotho uzoba yiqhwa. Abavoti bazocasuka.

I-Populism iyanda

Ezikhathini zokucindezeleka kwezomnotho nokungaqiniseki, abavoti badonsela kubaholi abanamandla, abathonyayo abangathembisa izimpendulo ezilula nezisombululo ezilula emizabalazweni yabo. Nakuba kungalungile, umlando ubonise ukuthi lokhu ukusabela okungokwemvelo okuboniswa ngabavoti uma besabela ikusasa labo elihlangene. Sizofaka imininingwane yalokhu kanye nokunye okuhlobene nohulumeni ochungechungeni lwethu oluzayo Lwekusasa Likahulumeni, kodwa ngenxa yengxoxo yethu lapha, kubalulekile ukuqaphela lokhu okulandelayo:

Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020, abakwa- Izinkulungwane zeminyaka futhi Isizukulwane X izoqala esikhundleni sesizukulwane esikhulayo kuwo wonke amazinga kahulumeni, emhlabeni jikelele—lokhu kusho ukuthatha izikhundla zobuholi emsebenzini womphakathi nokuthatha izindima ezikhethiwe zehhovisi kumazinga kamasipala, wesifundazwe/wesifundazwe, kanye nasezingeni likahulumeni.
Njengoba kuchaziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lenani Labantu uchungechunge, lokhu kuthathwa kwezombusazwe akunakugwenywa ngokombono wezibalo zabantu. Izalwe phakathi kuka-1980 no-2000, iMillennials manje iyisizukulwane esikhulu kunazo zonke eMelika nasemhlabeni, ibalwa ngaphezudlwana kwezigidi eziyi-100 e-US kanye nezigidigidi eziyi-1.7 emhlabeni jikelele (2016). Futhi ngo-2018—lapho bonke sebefinyelela iminyaka yokuvota—bazoba isizinda sokuvota esikhulu kakhulu ukuba singazitshwa, ikakhulukazi uma amavoti abo ehlanganiswe namancane, kodwa asenamandla okuvota akwa-Gen X.
Okubaluleke nakakhulu, izifundo babonise ukuthi womabili lawa maqembu esizukulwane akhululekile ngokudlulele ekuthambekeni kwawo kwezepolitiki futhi womabili adidekile futhi ayangabaza isimo samanje uma kukhulunywa ngendlela uhulumeni nomnotho ophathwa ngayo.
Eminyakeni eyinkulungwane, ikakhulukazi, umshikashika wabo othathe amashumi eminyaka ukuthola izinga elifanayo lomsebenzi nezinga lomcebo njengabazali babo, ikakhulukazi lapho bebhekene nezikweletu ezibolekiwe zabafundi kanye nomnotho ongazinzile (2008-9), uzobavumela ukuthi shaya imithetho kahulumeni kanye nezinhlelo ezinobusoshiyali noma ukulingana ngokwemvelo.

Kusukela ngo-2016, sibone abaholi bobuzwe vele bengena eNingizimu Melika, e-Europe, nakamuva kakhulu eNyakatho Melika, lapho (okungangabazeki) abantu ababili ababedume kakhulu okhethweni lukamongameli lwango-2016—uDonald Trump kanye noBernie Sanders—bangenele ukhetho olungenamahloni. amapulatifomu, nakuba avela ezinhlakeni zezombusazwe eziphikisanayo. Lo mkhuba wepolitiki awuyi ndawo. Futhi njengoba abaholi abangosaziwayo ngokwemvelo besebenzisa izinqubomgomo 'ezidumile' kubantu, nakanjani bazongena ezimisweni ezibandakanya ukusetshenziswa kwemali eyengeziwe ekudaleni amathuba emisebenzi (ingqalasizinda) noma ezinhlelweni zezenhlalakahle noma kokubili.

Idili Entsha

Kulungile, ngakho-ke sinekusasa lapho abaholi bobucwebe bezokhethwa njalo ngabavoti abathanda inkululeko ngesikhathi lapho ubuchwepheshe buthuthuka ngokushesha kangangokuthi buqeda imisebenzi/imisebenzi eminingi kunokudala kwayo, futhi ekugcineni kubhebhetheke ukuhlukana phakathi kwabacebile nabampofu. .

Uma leli qoqo lezici lingaholeli ezinguqukweni ezinkulu zesikhungo ezinhlelweni zethu zikahulumeni nezomnotho, uma sikhuluma iqiniso, angazi ukuthi kuzokwenzekani.

Okulandelayo wushintsho oluya enkathini yenala eqala cishe maphakathi nawo-2040. Lesi sikhathi esizayo sihlanganisa izihloko eziningi ezihlukene, futhi yileso esizoxoxa ngaso ngokujulile ochungechungeni lwethu oluzayo Lwekusasa Likahulumeni Nekusasa Lezezimali. Kodwa futhi, esimweni salolu chungechunge, singasho ukuthi le nkathi entsha yezomnotho izoqala ngokusungulwa kwezinhlelo ezintsha zezenhlalakahle.

Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2030, enye yezinhlelo okungenzeka ukuthi iningi lohulumeni bakusasa bazoyisungula kuzoba wuhlelo. Imali Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke (UBI), imali ekhokhwa nyanga zonke kuzo zonke izakhamizi nyanga zonke. Inani elinikeziwe lizohlukahluka kuye ngamazwe, kodwa lizohlala limboza izidingo eziyisisekelo zabantu zokuziphilisa nokuziphakela. Ohulumeni abaningi bazokhipha le mali ngesihle, kuyilapho abambalwa bezama ukuyibophela ezimisweni ezithile ezihlobene nomsebenzi. Ekugcineni, i-UBI (kanye nezinye izinguqulo ezihlukahlukene ezingaqhudelana nayo) izodala isisekelo esisha/isitezi semali engenayo ukuze abantu baphile ngaphandle kokwesaba indlala noma ukuswela ngokuphelele.

Kuleli qophelo, ukuxhasa ngezimali i-UBI kuzolawuleka amazwe amaningi athuthukile (njengoba kuxoxwe ngawo esahlukweni sesihlanu), ngisho nensada yokuxhasa i-UBI enesizotha emazweni asathuthuka. Lolu sizo lwe-UBI futhi ngeke lugwemeke njengoba ukunikeza lolu sizo kuzobiza kakhulu kunokuvumela amazwe asathuthuka ukuthi awe bese kuba nezigidi zababaleki abaphelelwe ithemba bezomnotho abagcwala imingcele beya emazweni athuthukile-ukunambitheka kwalokhu kwabonakala ngesikhathi sokufuduka kweSyria bebheke eYurophu. eduze nokuqala kwempi yombango yaseSyria (2011-).

Kodwa ungalenzi iphutha, lezi zinhlelo ezintsha zezenhlalakahle zizoba ukwabiwa kabusha kwemali engenayo ngesilinganiso esingakaze sibonwe kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1950s kanye nama-60s—isikhathi lapho abacebile babekhokhiswa intela enzima (amaphesenti angama-70 kuya kwangama-90), abantu banikezwa imfundo eshibhile kanye nezikweletu zezindlu, futhi ngenxa yalokho, kwasungulwa isigaba esiphakathi futhi umnotho wakhula kakhulu.

Ngokufanayo, lezi zinhlelo zezenhlalakahle zesikhathi esizayo zizosiza ukudala kabusha isigaba esiphakathi ngokunikeza wonke umuntu imali eyanele yokuphila nokusebenzisa inyanga ngayinye, imali eyanele yokuthatha isikhathi sokuhamba. ubuyele esikoleni futhi uziqeqeshele imisebenzi yesikhathi esizayo, imali eyanele yokwenza eminye imisebenzi noma ukukhokhela ukusebenza amahora ancishisiwe ukuze unakekele abasha, abagulayo nasebekhulile. Lezi zinhlelo zizonciphisa izinga lokungalingani kweholo phakathi kwabesilisa nabesifazane, kanye naphakathi kwabacebile nabampofu, njengoba izinga lempilo wonke umuntu elijabulelayo lizovumelana kancane kancane. Okokugcina, lezi zinhlelo zizovusa kabusha umnotho osekelwe ekusetshenzisweni lapho zonke izakhamuzi zichitha ngaphandle kokwesaba ukuthi zizoke ziphelelwe yimali (kuze kube iphuzu).

Empeleni, sizosebenzisa izinqubomgomo zesocialist ukulungisa capitalism ngokwanele ukugcina injini yabo iduma.

Ukungena enkathini yenala

Kusukela ekuqaleni kwezomnotho wesimanje, uhlelo lwethu luye lwasebenza ekususeni iqiniso lokushoda njalo kwezinsiza. Akukaze kube nezimpahla nezinsiza ezanele ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zawo wonke umuntu, ngakho-ke sidale uhlelo lwezomnotho oluvumela abantu ukuthi bahwebe ngempumelelo izinsiza ababenazo ukuze bathole izinsiza ababezidinga ukuze basondeze umphakathi eduze, kodwa ungalokothi ufinyelele, isimo esigcwele lapho. zonke izidingo ziyahlangatshezwa.

Kodwa-ke, uguquko lwezobuchwepheshe kanye nesayensi luzohlinzeka emashumini eminyaka ezayo azosishintshela okokuqala egatsheni lezomnotho elibizwa ngokuthi. umnotho wangemva kokushoda. Lona umnotho ocatshangelwayo lapho izimpahla eziningi nezinsiza kukhiqizwa ngobuningi ngokusetshenziswa kwabantu okuncane okudingekayo, okwenza lezi zimpahla namasevisi kutholakale kuzo zonke izakhamuzi mahhala noma ezishibhile kakhulu.

Ngokuyisisekelo, lolu uhlobo lomnotho abalingisi abavela ku-Star Trek neminye imibukiso ye-sci-fi yesikhathi esizayo esebenza ngaphakathi.

Kuze kube manje, umzamo omncane kakhulu owenziwe wokucwaninga imininingwane yokuthi umnotho wangemva kokushoda uzosebenza kanjani ngokweqiniso. Lokhu kunengqondo uma kubhekwa ukuthi lolu hlobo lomnotho lwalungakaze lube khona esikhathini esidlule futhi cishe luzoqhubeka lungenakwenzeka emashumini ambalwa eminyaka ambalwa.

Kodwa uma sicabanga ukuthi umnotho wangemva kokushoda uba yinto evamile ekuqaleni kwawo-2050, kunemiphumela eminingana eba yinto engenakugwenywa:

Ezingeni likazwelonke, indlela esikala ngayo impilo yezomnotho izosuka ekulinganiseni isamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya (GDP) siye endleleni esisebenzisa ngayo amandla nezinsiza.
Ezingeni lomuntu ngamunye, ekugcineni sizoba nempendulo yokuthi kwenzekani lapho ingcebo isikhululeka. Ngokuyisisekelo, lapho izidingo eziyisisekelo zawo wonke umuntu zihlangatshezwa, ingcebo yezezimali noma ukuqoqwa kwemali kancane kancane kuyoncipha emphakathini. Esikhundleni salo, abantu bazozichaza kakhulu ngalokho abakwenzayo kunalokhu abanakho.
Uma sibeka ngenye indlela, lokhu kusho ukuthi abantu ekugcineni bazothola ukuzethemba okuncane emalini abanayo uma beqhathaniswa nomuntu olandelayo, futhi kakhulu ngalokho abakwenzayo noma abanikela ngakho uma kuqhathaniswa nomuntu olandelayo. Ukufezwa, hhayi ingcebo, kuyoba udumo olusha ezizukulwaneni ezizayo.

Ngalezi zindlela, indlela esiphatha ngayo umnotho wethu kanye nendlela esiziphatha ngayo izosimama kakhulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ukuthi konke lokhu kuzoholela enkathini entsha yokuthula nenjabulo yabo bonke abantu akunzima ukukusho, kodwa ngokuqinisekile sizosondela kuleso simo se-topian kunanoma isiphi isikhathi emlandweni wethu ohlangene.