Singadala umhlaba ongenazifo?

Singakwazi ukudala umhlaba ongenazifo?
ISIKWELETU SOMTHETHO:  http://www.michaelnielsen.org/ddi/guest-post-judea-pearl-on-correlation-causation-and-the-psychology-of-simpsons-paradox/

Singadala umhlaba ongenazifo?

    • Igama lombhali
      U-Andre Gress
    • Umbhali we-Twitter Handle
      @Quantumrun

    Indaba egcwele (KUPHELA sebenzisa inkinobho ethi 'Namathisela EZwini' ukuze ukopishe futhi unamathisele ngokuphephile umbhalo kudokhumenti ye-Word)

    Kungenzeka yini ukuba nomhlaba ongenazo izifo? Isifo igama abaningi (uma kungebona bonke) abantu abazizwa bengakhululekile ukuzwa uma bona noma othile abamaziyo enaso. Ngenhlanhla, UMax Welling, uprofesa wokufunda ngomshini eNyuvesi yase-Amsterdam kanye nelungu le-Canadian Institute of Advanced Research, kanye nethimba lakhe losomabhizinisi baye bakha uhlelo lokuhlaziya idatha lokuxilongwa kwezifo ezigulini. Iqiniso elijabulisayo: Uqondisa i-AMLAB (Amsterdam Machine Learning LAB) futhi uqondisa ngokuhlanganyela i-QUVA Lab (Qualcomm-UvA Lab). Lapha sizobona ukuthi le ndoda emangalisayo nethimba layo losomabhizinisi (uCynthia Dwork, uGeoffrey Hinton kanye noJudia Pearl) benza kanjani intuthuko emangalisayo ukuqeda izifo emhlabeni.

    Izinkathazo zikaMax Welling

    Amanye amaqiniso ashiwo u-Welling ngesikhathi ekhuluma nge-TEDx aletha ukunaka eqinisweni lokuthi kunezikhathi lapho udokotela angase aphuthelwe okuthile ngesikhathi sokuxilongwa kwesiguli. Ngokwesibonelo, uthi “ingxenye yezinqubo zokwelapha ayinabo ubufakazi besayensi obuceliwe.” Lokho kuxilongwa kwenziwa ngokuyinhloko ngokwenza kwabo kanye nolwazi abaluthole esikoleni, kuyilapho uMax ethi kufanele kube nohlobo oluthile lokubikezela kwesifo kwezinye izifo ezingaba khona. Uqhubeka echaza ukuthi ezinye iziguli zingaxilongwa ngendlela engafanele, zigcine sezibuyela esibhedlela, lapho ecacisa khona ukuthi maningi amathuba okuthi zishone ngokuphindwe kayisi-8. Okuhlaba umxhwele kakhulu yilolu daba oseluhlale lukhona. Isizathu silula njengoba amaphutha nakanjani enziwe okungenzeka ngeshwa alahlekisele othile noma abantu abambalwa izimpilo zabo. Akugcini lapho, njengoba u-Welling esho, kunezinqubo zezokwelapha eziyizigidi ezingama-230 njalo ngonyaka ezibiza ingxenye yesigidigidi samadola. Njenganoma iyiphi imboni ezama ukunikeza isevisi ukusiza abanye, kubiza imali; ngaphezu kwalokho, lokho kusho ukuthi izibhedlela nalabo abaphethe uxhaso lwezikhungo zezokwelapha kudingeka balalele abasunguli abazama ukuqhubekisela phambili imboni ngendlela engcono. Noma kunjalo, ukonga kuyazuzisa ngaso sonke isikhathi.

    Ukugcina Ubumfihlo

    U-Welling uthe yena neqembu lakhe benze intuthuko emi-3. Enye yazo ikhompyutha engagcina ubumfihlo ngaphakathi kwesibhedlela; ngaphezu kwalokho, amakhompyutha angaphinda ahlaziye idatha eningi ukuze athuthukise ukuxilongwa kweziguli ezigula kakhulu. Le softhiwe inegama Umfundi Womshini. Empeleni, ikhompuyutha ithumela umbuzo kusizindalwazi sasesibhedlela, esiphendula umbuzo bese umfundi womshini ezoshintsha impendulo “ngokwengeza umsindo kuwo.” Ukuze uthole imininingwane eyengeziwe sicela Chofoza lapha (U-Max Welling uyichaza ngokuseduze phakathi kwemizuzu 5:20 – 6:06). Ngamanye amazwi, njengoba uMax echaza, ikhompuyutha ifuna “ukuzenza ngcono” ngokuxilongwa kanye “nokwakha imodeli engcono yedatha”. Konke lokhu kungenxa Cynthia Dwork, ongusosayensi ovelele ovela ku-Microsoft Research. Ugxile ekulondolozeni ubumfihlo ngokusekelwe kusisekelo sezibalo. Ukuze uthole okwengeziwe ngaye nangakwenzile, Chofoza lapha. Kafushane, lokhu kuphumelela kokuqala akubonisi nje kuphela ukuthi uMax ufuna ukuhlonipha ulwazi lomuntu siqu lweziguli kodwa futhi ufuna ukunikeza izibhedlela isisekelo esiqinile sokuxilongwa.

    Ukufunda Okujulile

    Ukuphumelela kwesibili kuvezwe ngu UGeoffrey Hinton. Yann Lecun, Yoshua Bengio kanye noGeoffrey baye bachaza ukuthi: “Ukufunda okujulile kuthola ukwakheka okuyinkimbinkimbi kumasethi amakhulu edatha ngokusebenzisa i-algorithm yokusakaza emuva ukuze ubonise ukuthi umshini kufanele uguqule kanjani amapharamitha awo angaphakathi asetshenziselwa ukubala ukumelwa kusendlalelo ngasinye kusukela ekumeleleni kusendlalelo sangaphambilini.” Ngokwamagama abantu abavamile, isiza umshini ukuthi uziqonde kangcono ngokusebenzisa izendlalelo zawo eziyinkimbinkimbi ngokusebenzisa imingcele yawo ejulile (ukuthola imininingwane eyengeziwe sicela ufunde okunye ukubukezwa okubhalwe ngabanumzane abathathu).

    I-Causality vs Ukuxhumana

    Impumelelo yesithathu neyokugcina ingumbono wokuhlanganyela ukuze uqhubeke nokuhlukanisa imbangela nokuhlobana. UMax unomuzwa wokuthi amathuluzi ka-Judia Pearl angasiza ukuhlukanisa le miqondo emibili kanye zihleleke. Ngokuyinhloko indima yeJudiya ukusiza ukunikeza ukwakheka okwengeziwe kudatha engenziwa uma amafayela esiguli edluliselwa ngedijithali kusizindalwazi. Umsebenzi kaPearl uyinkimbinkimbi ngakho uma ungathanda ukuqonda kabanzi ukuthi ayini "amathuluzi" akhe Chofoza lapha.

    Isifiso sikaMax

    U-Welling ufinyeze ekugcineni kweyakhe I-TEDX Talk ukuthi ufuna ukugcina ubumfihlo ngokusebenzisa umfundi womshini. Okwesibili, ukubandakanya abancane bedatha nososayensi ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuxilonga ukuze konge imali nezimpilo. Okokugcina, ufuna ukwenza izinguquko ekunakekelweni kwezempilo ngokuhlinzeka kangcono izibhedlela, odokotela kanye neziguli ngobuchwepheshe obungasiza ekunciphiseni ukuvakasha ezibhedlela nokusebenzisa imali ngendlela efanele. Lona umbono omuhle ngokunakekelwa kwezempilo ngoba akafuni nje ukuhlonipha imboni yezokwelapha, futhi ufuna ukusiza ukusindisa izimpilo kuyilapho ecabanga ngesabelomali sezibhedlela nezikhungo zezokwelapha.

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