I-China namabhethri ezimoto: Ulwela ukubusa emakethe elinganiselwa ku-USD $24 trillion?

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• Mashi 13, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Ukuphumelela kwe-China phezu kokukhiqizwa kwebhethri lemoto kagesi (EV) akugcinanga nje ngokulolonga indawo yezimoto zomhlaba wonke kodwa kuphinde kwavuthisa umjaho wokuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokuma kwamasu. Isebenzisa ukulawula kwayo phezu kwamaminerali abalulekile kanye nomlando ogxile kubuchwepheshe be-lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), ukubusa kweChina kuthinta amanani, ukutholakala, kanye nokukhula okuphelele kwemakethe ye-EV. Imithelela efinyelela kude ihlanganisa ukuguquguquka ezimakethe zezabasebenzi, ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe, izinselelo zemvelo, okuthandwa ngabathengi, kanye nokugcizelela kakhulu ukugaywa kabusha nokulawulwa kwemfucuza embonini.

I-China namabhethri emoto umongo

Ukusungulwa kwamanje ekukhiqizweni kwezimoto zikagesi esizukulwaneni esilandelayo kuzonquma amandla okuthengisa nokukhiqiza ngobuningi amabhethri emoto kagesi. Noma kunjalo, ukubusa kweChina ekukhiqizeni amabhethri e-EV kusekelwe emlandweni. Ukusungulwa kokwakhiwa kwebhethri ngeminyaka yawo-90s ebizwa ngokuthi i-lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) ngu-John Goodenough, uprofesa waseMelika, kube yingxenye yokukhiqizwa okunamandla kwamabhethri e-China. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yesinqumo senhlangano ephethe amalungelo obunikazi ezinze eSwitzerland esikhawulele ukusetshenziswa kweShayina kwamabhethri e-LFP emakethe yendawo, i-China yenze laba likhulu ithuba lokwenza lawa mabhethri ngaphandle kokukhokha izimali ezishisiwe zamalayisense.

Ngenani lemakethe elilinganiselwa ku-USD $200 wezigidigidi, inkampani ehamba phambili ekhiqiza amabhethri ezimoto e-China, i-Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL), yaba ngowokuqala ukumaketha ngebhethri ye-sodium-ion yesizukulwane esilandelayo futhi yethula izinhlelo zokusungula uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngogesi ngo-2023. emisha yaqhutshwa ukutholakala kwensiza njengesidingo se-cobalt—isithako esiyinhloko samabhethri e-lithium-ion futhi asetshenziswa kuma-EVs ohlobo olude—akhuphuke ngo-2020, okuholele ekwenyukeni kwentengo ngamaphesenti angama-50 ezinyangeni eziyisithupha.

Ukuba sengozini kwemboni yokukhiqiza amabhethri ezimoto e-US naseYurophu kuphinde kuphazamiseke i-China, evikele uxhaso lwayo ngokutshala imali ngqo emisebenzini yezimayini ze-cobalt kanye nokusayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokuhlinzekwa kwensiza. 

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Ngobuningi bezinto zomhlaba eziyivelakancane kanye namaminerali abalulekile adingekayo ukuze kukhiqizwe amabhethri, i-China izibeke endaweni ebambe iqhaza elibalulekile ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla. Lokhu kubusa kungaholela ekuthembeleni e-China ngalezi zingxenye ezibalulekile, okungase kuthinte intengo nokutholakala kwamabhethri e-EV. Emazweni nasezinkampanini ezingaphandle kweChina, lokhu kwethenjwa kungaholela ezinseleleni ekutholeni ukuhlinzekwa okuzinzile futhi okungabizi kakhulu, ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte ukukhula okuphelele kwemakethe yezimoto zikagesi.

Ukuphelelwa yisikhathi kwamalungelo obunikazi e-LFP kanye nentshisekelo yabakhiqizi bezimoto baseNtshonalanga kubuchwepheshe be-LFP kungase kubonakale njengokusuka ebukhosini baseChina. Kodwa-ke, ulwazi olubanzi lwase-China nengqalasizinda esunguliwe ekukhiqizeni amabhethri kusengabagcina bephambili emdlalweni. Lo mkhuba ungathonya amasu ohulumeni nezinkampani, uzikhuthaze ukuthi zitshale emandleni okukhiqiza ekhaya noma zakhe imifelandawonye yamasu. 

Ubuholi baseShayina ekukhiqizeni amabhethri bubuye bube nemithelela ebanzi kwezenhlalo-mnotho kanye nemvelo. Ukugxila kwezwe emandleni ahlanzekile kuhambisana nemizamo yomhlaba wonke yokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, futhi ukubusa kwayo ekukhiqizeni amabhethri kungaqhuba intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ezisombululweni zokugcinwa kwamandla. Lobu buholi abusekeli nje kuphela ukuguqukela kweShayina emnothweni oluhlaza kodwa futhi bubeka isibonelo kwezinye izizwe. 

Imithelela yokubusa kwebhethri lesiShayina

Imithelela ebanzi yokubusa kwebhethri yase-China ingase ihlanganise: 

• Amandla okuthi i-China ibeke amazinga omhlaba kubuchwepheshe bebhethri, okuholela ekufaniseni izindlela zokukhiqiza nokwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe okungase kukhawulele ukuhlukana phakathi kwabakhiqizi.
• Ushintsho ezimakethe zezabasebenzi luye kumakhono ayisipesheli ekukhiqizeni amabhethri kanye nobuchwepheshe obuhlobene, okuholela esidingweni sokuqeqeshwa kabusha nokufunda emazweni ahlose ukuncintisana neChina.
• Ukwakhiwa kwemifelandawonye emisha kanye nezivumelwano zokuhwebelana phakathi kwamazwe afuna ukunciphisa ukuncika ekunikezeni amabhethri e-China, okuholela ekumisweni kabusha kokuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe.
• Ukugxila okwengeziwe ezimayini zasekhaya kanye nokucubungula amaminerali abalulekile ukuze kukhiqizwe amabhethri, okuholela ezinseleleni ezingaba khona zemvelo kanye nemithetho eqinile emazweni angaphandle kwe-China.
• Amathuba okuthi izintandokazi zabathengi zishintshele kuma-EV ahlonyiswe ngobuchwepheshe bebhethri obuthile, okuholela ezinguqukweni zamasu okumaketha nawokuthengisa ezinkampani zezimoto.
• Ohulumeni abangaphandle kwaseShayina batshala imali eningi ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukiseni ezinye izixazululo zokulondoloza amandla, okuholela ekwandeni kobuchwepheshe kanye nempumelelo engaba khona ekusebenzeni kahle kwamandla.
• Ukwenyuka okungenzeka kwemfucuza ye-elekthronikhi njengoba amazwe enyusa ukukhiqizwa kwamabhethri ukuze ahlangabezane nesidingo, okuholela ekugcizeleleni okukhulu ekugayweni kabusha kanye nezinqubo zokulawula imfucuza embonini.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Ukuqhubeka nokubusa kwe-China ekukhiqizeni amabhethri kungase kuqinise amandla ayo ezombusazwe kanye nokwenza izinqumo kwamasu okuthekelisa izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi kuphela hhayi amabhethri. Ucabanga ukuthi i-US kanye namazwe ase-Europe kufanele adambise kanjani le ngozi?
• Izinkampani zaseShayina zitshale imali eningi ezimayini ze-cobalt futhi zivikele lolu chungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngensimbi ebalulekile yebhethri, kuyilapho kungekho nkampani yaseNtshonalanga etshale imali efanayo. Ucabanga ukuthi kungani izinkampani zasentshonalanga zingatshali imali ngokukhuthele?