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Dongosolo lazachuma lamtsogolo likugwa mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene: Tsogolo la Chuma P4

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachitatu, 09/16/2020 - 05:56

M'zaka makumi aŵiri zikubwerazi, mavuto azachuma ayamba kuchititsa kuti mayiko amene akutukuka kumene ali m'mavuto.

Pamndandanda wathu wonse wa Tsogolo la Economy, tafufuza momwe matekinoloje a mawa angapitirizire bizinesi yapadziko lonse lapansi monga mwanthawi zonse. Ndipo ngakhale zitsanzo zathu zimayang'ana kwambiri mayiko otukuka, ndi mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene omwe angamve vuto la kusokonekera kwachuma komwe kukubwera. Ichi ndichifukwa chake tikugwiritsanso ntchito mutuwu kuyang'ana kwambiri zachuma chomwe chikutukuka padziko lapansi.

Kuti tisalowe pamutuwu, tiyang'ana kwambiri ku Africa. Koma pochita izi, zindikirani kuti zonse zomwe titi tifotokoze zikugwira ntchito kumayiko aku Middle East, Southeast Asia, Soviet Bloc wakale, ndi South America.

Bomba la anthu omwe akutukuka kumene

Podzafika chaka cha 2040, chiŵerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chidzakwera kufika pa anthu XNUMX biliyoni. Monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Chiwerengero cha Anthu mndandanda, kukula kwa chiwerengerochi sikugawidwa mofanana. Ngakhale kuti mayiko otukuka adzawona kuchepa kwakukulu ndi imvi kwa anthu awo, mayiko otukuka adzawona zosiyana.

Palibe kwina kulikonse komwe kuli koona ngati ku Africa, kontinenti yomwe ikuyembekezeka kuwonjezera anthu ena 800 miliyoni pazaka 20 zikubwerazi, kupitilira pang'ono mabiliyoni awiri pofika 2040. Nigeria yokha idzawona chiŵerengero chake chikuwonjezeka kuchoka pa 190 miliyoni m’chaka cha 2017 kufika pa 327 miliyoni pofika chaka cha 2040. Ponseponse, Africa ikuyembekezeka kutenga chiwonjezeko chachikulu komanso chofulumira kwambiri m’mbiri ya anthu.

Kukula konseku, ndithudi, sikumabwera popanda zovuta zake. Kawiri ogwira ntchito amatanthauzanso kawiri pakamwa kudyetsa, nyumba, ndi ntchito, osatchula kawiri chiwerengero cha ovota. Ndipo komabe kuwirikiza uku kwa ogwira ntchito amtsogolo ku Africa kumapereka mwayi kwa mayiko aku Africa kuti atsanzire chozizwitsa cha China pazachuma chazaka za m'ma 1980 mpaka 2010 - zomwe zikutanthauza kuti chuma chathu chamtsogolo chidzayenda bwino momwe zidakhalira mzaka zapitazi.

Malangizo: Sizingatero.

Zochita zokha kuti zitsamwitse chitukuko chamakampani omwe akutukuka kumene

M'mbuyomu, njira yomwe mayiko osauka ankagwiritsa ntchito posinthira kukhala maiko otukuka pazachuma inali kukopa ndalama kuchokera ku maboma akunja ndi mabungwe kuti agulitse ntchito zawo zotsika mtengo. Tayang'anani ku Germany, Japan, Korea, China, maiko onsewa adatuluka kuchokera ku chiwonongeko cha nkhondo pokopa opanga kuti akhazikitse masitolo m'mayiko awo ndikugwiritsa ntchito ntchito zawo zotsika mtengo. America idachitanso chimodzimodzi zaka mazana awiri m'mbuyomu popereka ntchito zotsika mtengo kumakampani aku Britain.

M'kupita kwa nthawi, kupitilirabe ndalama zakunja kumeneku kumapangitsa dziko lotukuka kuti liphunzitse bwino ndi kuphunzitsa antchito ake, kusonkhanitsa ndalama zomwe zikufunika, ndikubwezeretsanso ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa m'malo atsopano ndi malo opanga zinthu zomwe zimalola dzikolo kukopa pang'onopang'ono ndalama zambiri zakunja zomwe zimaphatikizapo kupanga. katundu ndi ntchito zotsogola kwambiri komanso zopeza ndalama zambiri. Kwenikweni, iyi ndi nkhani yakusintha kuchoka ku chuma chotsika kupita ku luso lapamwamba la ogwira ntchito.

Njira yopangira mafakitale iyi yakhala ikugwira ntchito mobwerezabwereza kwazaka mazana ambiri tsopano, koma ikhoza kusokonezedwa kwa nthawi yoyamba ndi kukula kwazomwe zikukambidwa mu mutu wachitatu za mndandanda wa Tsogolo la Economy.

Ganizilani izi motere: Njira zonse zoyendetsera mafakitale zomwe zafotokozedwa pamwambapa zimatengera osunga ndalama akunja omwe amayang'ana kunja kwa malire a dziko lawo kuti akagwire ntchito yotsika mtengo yopangira katundu ndi ntchito zomwe angathe kubwereketsa kunyumba kuti apeze phindu lalikulu. Koma ngati osunga ndalamawa atha kungoyika ndalama mu maloboti ndi nzeru zopangira (AI) kuti apange katundu ndi ntchito zawo, kufunikira kopita kutsidya kwa nyanja kumasungunuka.

Pafupifupi, loboti yakufakitale yotulutsa katundu 24/7 imatha kudzilipira yokha miyezi 24. Pambuyo pake, ntchito zonse zamtsogolo ndi zaulere. Komanso, kampani ikamanga fakitale yake pamtunda wanyumba, itha kupeweratu zolipiritsa zotsika mtengo zapadziko lonse lapansi, komanso kuchita zinthu zokhumudwitsa ndi ogulitsa ndi ogulitsa kunja. Makampani adzakhalanso ndi mphamvu zowongolera zinthu zawo, amatha kupanga zatsopano mwachangu, ndipo amatha kuteteza luntha lawo mogwira mtima.

Pofika pakati pa zaka za m'ma 2030, sizidzakhalanso zomveka kupanga katundu kunja ngati muli ndi njira zopezera maloboti anu.

Ndipo ndi pamene nsapato ina imagwera. Mayiko omwe ali ndi chiyambi cha robotics ndi AI (monga US, China, Japan, Germany) adzakhala ndi chipale chofewa mwayi wawo wamakono. Monga momwe kusalingana kwa ndalama kukuchulukirachulukira pakati pa anthu padziko lonse lapansi, kusagwirizana kwa mafakitale kudzaipiraipiranso pazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi.

Mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene sangakhale ndi ndalama zopikisana nawo pa mpikisano wopititsa patsogolo ma robotic a m'badwo wotsatira ndi AI. Izi zikutanthauza kuti ndalama zakunja ziyamba kuyang'ana kwambiri mayiko omwe ali ndi mafakitale othamanga kwambiri, ochita bwino kwambiri. Pakadali pano, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene ayamba kukumana ndi zomwe ena akuzitcha "deindustrialization msanga"kumene maikowa akuyamba kuwona mafakitale awo akusiya kugwiritsidwa ntchito komanso kupita patsogolo kwachuma ndikubwerera m'mbuyo.

Mwa njira ina, maloboti adzalola maiko olemera, otukuka kukhala ndi antchito otsika mtengo kuposa maiko otukuka kumene, ngakhale pamene chiŵerengero chawo chikuchulukira. Ndipo monga momwe mungayembekezere, kukhala ndi mazana a mamiliyoni a achichepere opanda chiyembekezo cha ntchito ndiko njira yodzetsa kusokonekera kwakukulu kwa anthu.

Kusintha kwanyengo kukugwetsa maiko omwe akutukuka kumene

Ngati makinawo sanali oipitsitsa, zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo zidzawonekera kwambiri pazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi. Ndipo ngakhale kusintha kwakukulu kwa nyengo ndi nkhani yachitetezo cha dziko m'maiko onse, ndikowopsa makamaka kwa mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene omwe alibe zida zodzitetezera.

Timapita mwatsatanetsatane za mutuwu m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Kusintha kwa Nyengo mndandanda, koma chifukwa cha zokambirana zathu pano, tiyeni tingonena kuti kusintha kwa nyengo kukuipiraipira kudzatanthauza kusowa kwa madzi abwino komanso kusokonekera kwa zokolola m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene.

Chifukwa chake pamwamba pa zodzichitira zokha, titha kuyembekezeranso kusowa kwa chakudya ndi madzi m'magawo omwe ali ndi ma ballooning. Koma zikuipiraipira.

Kuwonongeka kwa misika yamafuta

Choyamba chotchulidwa mu mutu wachiwiri za mndandandawu, 2022 iwona pofika pachimake pamagalimoto amagetsi oyendera dzuwa ndi magetsi pomwe mtengo wawo udzatsika kwambiri kotero kuti zitha kukhala njira zomwe mayiko ndi anthu azitha kuyikamo. Kuchokera pamenepo, zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi ziwona. kutsika kwamtengo wamafuta chifukwa magalimoto ochepa ndi mafakitale opangira magetsi amagwiritsa ntchito mafuta amafuta.

Iyi ndi nkhani yabwino kwa chilengedwe. Izi ndi nkhani zomvetsa chisoni kwa mayiko ambiri otukuka ndi omwe akutukuka kumene ku Africa, Middle East, ndi Russia omwe chuma chawo chimadalira kwambiri ndalama zamafuta kuti zisamayende bwino.

Ndipo chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa ndalama zamafuta, maikowa sadzakhala ndi zinthu zofunikira kuti apikisane ndi chuma chomwe kugwiritsa ntchito maloboti ndi AI kukukulirakulira. Choyipa chachikulu, kuchepa kwa ndalama kumeneku kudzachepetsa kuthekera kwa atsogoleri odziyimira pawokha amitundu iyi kuti alipire zida zawo zankhondo ndi zazikulu, ndipo pamene mukuwerenga, izi sizikhala zabwino nthawi zonse.

Ulamuliro woyipa, mikangano, ndi kusamuka kwakukulu kwakumpoto

Pomaliza, mwina chomvetsa chisoni kwambiri pamndandandawu mpaka pano ndichakuti mayiko ambiri omwe akutukuka kumene omwe tikuwanena akuvutika ndi maulamuliro osauka komanso osayimira anthu.

Olamulira mwankhanza. Maboma aulamuliro. Ambiri mwa atsogoleriwa ndi machitidwe olamulira amawononga ndalama mwadala mwa anthu awo (zonse zamaphunziro ndi zomangamanga) kuti alemeretse bwino ndikuwongolera.

Koma pamene ndalama zakunja ndi mafuta akunja zikuuma m’zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, zidzakhala zovuta kwambiri kwa olamulira ankhanzawa kulipira asilikali awo ndi ena otchuka. Ndipo popanda ndalama za chiphuphu zolipirira kukhulupirika, kugwiritsitsa kwawo ulamuliro potsirizira pake kudzagwa chifukwa cha kulanda boma kapena kupanduka kotchuka. Tsopano pamene kuli koyesa kukhulupirira kuti maulamuliro okhwima a demokalase adzauka m’malo mwawo, kaŵirikaŵiri, olamulira a autocrat amalowedwa m’malo ndi olamulira ena kapena kusayeruzika kotheratu.

Kuphatikizidwa pamodzi, makina opangira makina, kuipiraipira kwa madzi ndi chakudya, kutsika kwa ndalama zamafuta, utsogoleri wopanda pake - zomwe zachitika kwa nthawi yayitali m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene ndizovuta, kunena pang'ono.

Ndipo tisaganize kuti maiko otukuka achotsedwa ku tsogolo la mayiko osaukawa. Pamene mayiko akusweka, anthu omwe amawapanga samaphwanyidwa nawo. M’malo mwake, anthu amenewa amasamukira ku malo obiriwira obiriwira.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti titha kuwona mamiliyoni ambiri a nyengo, zachuma, ndi othawa kwawo kunkhondo / othawa kwawo akuthawa ku South America kupita ku North America komanso ku Africa ndi Middle East kupita ku Europe. Tikungokumbukira zomwe anthu othawa kwawo aku Syria miliyoni miliyoni anali nazo pazachikhalidwe, zandale, komanso zachuma ku kontinenti yaku Europe kuti amve kuopsa komwe kungayambitse kusamuka.

Komabe ngakhale pali mantha onsewa, chiyembekezo chidakalipo.

Njira yopulumukira kumayendedwe a imfa

Zomwe takambiranazi zidzachitika ndipo sizingalephereke, koma kuti zidzachitika liti mpaka pano pali mkangano. Nkhani yabwino ndiyakuti ngati itayendetsedwa bwino, chiwopsezo cha njala yayikulu, ulova, ndi mikangano zitha kuchepetsedwa kwambiri. Ganizirani izi zotsutsana ndi chiwonongeko ndi mdima pamwambapa.

Kulowa pa intaneti. Pofika kumapeto kwa 2020s, kulowa kwa intaneti kudzafika pa 80 peresenti padziko lonse lapansi. Izi zikutanthauza kuti anthu owonjezera mabiliyoni atatu (makamaka m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene) apeza mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito intaneti komanso zabwino zonse zachuma zomwe zabweretsa kale kumayiko otukuka. Kupezeka kwa digito kwatsopano kumeneku kumayiko omwe akutukuka kumene kudzalimbikitsa ntchito zatsopano zachuma, monga tafotokozera mutu woyamba zathu Tsogolo la intaneti zino.

Kupititsa patsogolo utsogoleri. Kutsika kwa ndalama zamafuta kudzachitika pang'onopang'ono pazaka makumi awiri. Ngakhale zili zomvetsa chisoni kwa maulamuliro opondereza, zimawapatsa nthawi yoti azitha kusintha mwa kuyika ndalama zomwe ali nazo panopa m'mafakitale atsopano, kumasula chuma chawo, ndikupatsa anthu awo ufulu wambiri, chitsanzo kukhala Saudi Arabia ndi awo. Masomphenya 2030 kanthu.

Kugulitsa zinthu zachilengedwe. Ngakhale kuti mwayi wopeza anthu ogwira ntchito udzatsika mtengo m'tsogolo lathu lachuma padziko lonse lapansi, mwayi wopeza chuma udzangowonjezera phindu, makamaka pamene chiwerengero cha anthu chikukula ndikuyamba kufuna kukhala ndi moyo wabwino. Mwamwayi, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene ali ndi zinthu zachilengedwe zambiri kuposa mafuta okha. Mofanana ndi zomwe China ikuchita ndi mayiko aku Africa, mayiko omwe akutukukawa amatha kusinthanitsa chuma chawo kuti apeze zida zatsopano komanso mwayi wopita kumisika yakunja.

Zowonjezera Zachilengedwe. Uwu ndi mutu womwe tikufotokoza mwatsatanetsatane mutu wotsatira wa mndandanda uno. Koma chifukwa cha zokambirana zathu pano. Universal Basic Income (UBI) kwenikweni ndi ndalama zaulere zomwe boma limakupatsani mwezi uliwonse, zofanana ndi penshoni ya okalamba. Ngakhale okwera mtengo kukhazikitsa m'maiko otukuka, m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene komwe moyo ndi wotchipa kwambiri, UBI ndiyotheka kwambiri - mosasamala kanthu kuti imathandizidwa ndi ndalama zapakhomo kapena kudzera mwaothandizira akunja. Pulogalamu yotereyi ingathetseretu umphaŵi m’mayiko amene akungotukuka kumene ndi kupanga ndalama zokwanira anthu wamba kuti apititse patsogolo chuma chatsopano.

Kuletsa kubala. Kupititsa patsogolo kulera ndi njira zolerera zaulere kungathe kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa anthu kosakhazikika pakanthawi yayitali. Mapulogalamu otere ndi otsika mtengo, koma ndi ovuta kuwagwiritsa ntchito potengera malingaliro osamala komanso achipembedzo a atsogoleri ena.

Malo ogulitsa otsekedwa. Chifukwa cha phindu lalikulu la mafakitale limene dziko la mafakitale lidzatukuke m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adzalimbikitsidwa kuti akhazikitse ziletso zamalonda kapena kukwera mtengo kwa katundu wochokera kumayiko otukuka pofuna kulimbikitsa makampani awo apakhomo ndi kuteteza ntchito za anthu. kupewa chisokonezo. Mu Africa, mwachitsanzo, titha kuwona malo otsekedwa amalonda azachuma omwe amakomera malonda akukontinenti kuposa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi. Mfundo zachitetezo zankhanza zotere zitha kulimbikitsa ndalama zakunja kuchokera kumayiko otukuka kuti athe kupeza msika wotsekedwawu.

Migrant blackmail. Pofika chaka cha 2017, dziko la Turkey lakhazikitsa malire ake ndikuteteza European Union ku kusefukira kwa anthu othawa kwawo aku Syria. Dziko la Turkey silinachite izi chifukwa chokonda bata la ku Ulaya, koma posinthanitsa ndi mabiliyoni a madola ndi mgwirizano wa ndale wamtsogolo. Ngati zinthu ziipiraipira m'tsogolomu, sizomveka kuganiza kuti mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adzafuna thandizo lofananalo kuchokera kumayiko otukuka kuti atetezedwe ku mamiliyoni a anthu othawa kwawo omwe akufuna kuthawa njala, kusowa ntchito kapena mikangano.

Ntchito za zomangamanga. Monga momwe zilili m'mayiko otukuka, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene atha kuwona kukhazikitsidwa kwa ntchito zamtundu wamtundu wonse poikapo ndalama muzomangamanga zamayiko ndi m'matauni komanso ntchito zamagetsi obiriwira.

Ntchito zantchito. Mofanana ndi mfundo yomwe ili pamwambayi, monga momwe ntchito zautumiki zikulowa m'malo mwa ntchito zopanga zinthu m'mayiko otukuka, kotero kuti ntchito zitheke (mwina) m'malo mwa ntchito zopanga mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene. Izi ndi zolipira bwino, ntchito zakomweko zomwe sizingadzipangire zokha. Mwachitsanzo, ntchito zamaphunziro, chisamaliro chaumoyo ndi unamwino, zosangalatsa, izi ndi ntchito zomwe zidzachuluke kwambiri, makamaka pamene kulowa kwa intaneti ndi ufulu wa anthu ukukula.

Kodi mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene angathe kulumpha mtsogolo?

Mfundo ziwiri zam'mbuyo zimafunikira chisamaliro chapadera. Pazaka mazana awiri kapena atatu zapitazi, njira yomwe yayesedwa nthawi yayitali yachitukuko chachuma inali yolimbikitsa chuma chamakampani chomwe chimakhazikika pakupanga anthu omwe ali ndi luso lochepa, kenako kugwiritsa ntchito zopindulazo pomanga maziko a dzikoli ndikusintha kupita kuchuma chogwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri. ndi luso lapamwamba, ntchito zamagulu othandizira. Izi ndizochepa kapena zochepa zomwe UK, ndiye US, Germany, ndi Japan pambuyo pa WWII, ndipo posachedwapa China (mwachiwonekere, tikuyang'ana mayiko ena ambiri, koma mumamva mfundoyi).

Komabe, ndi madera ambiri a Afirika, Middle East, ndi mayiko ena a ku South America ndi Asia, njira iyi ya chitukuko cha zachuma mwina sangapezekenso kwa iwo. Mayiko otukuka omwe ali ndi luso la robotics oyendetsedwa ndi AI posachedwapa apanga malo opangira zinthu zambiri zomwe zidzatulutse katundu wochuluka popanda kufunikira kwa anthu okwera mtengo.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adzakumana ndi njira ziwiri. Lolani kuti chuma chawo chiyimire ndikudalira nthawi zonse thandizo lochokera kumayiko otukuka. Kapena atha kupanga zatsopano podumphadumpha pazachuma cha mafakitale ndi kupanga chuma chomwe chimadzichirikiza chokha pazantchito zamagawo ndi ntchito zamagulu.

Kupita patsogolo koteroko kudzadalira kwambiri utsogoleri wabwino komanso matekinoloje atsopano osokonekera (monga kulowa kwa intaneti, mphamvu zobiriwira, ma GMO, ndi zina zambiri), koma mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene omwe ali ndi luso lopanga kudumpha kumeneku adzakhalabe opikisana pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi.

Ponseponse, momwe maboma kapena maulamuliro a mayiko omwe akutukukawa amagwiritsira ntchito mofulumira komanso mogwira mtima kumodzi kapena zingapo mwa kusintha ndi njira zomwe tatchulazi zimadalira luso lawo komanso momwe amaonera zoopsa zomwe zikubwera. Koma monga lamulo, zaka 20 zikubwerazi sizidzakhala zophweka mwanjira iriyonse kwa mayiko amene akutukuka kumene.