Uhlelo lwezomnotho oluzayo oluzowa amazwe asathuthuka: Ikusasa lomnotho P4

Kuqubuka isivunguvungu somnotho eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo esingashiya amazwe asathuthuka enkingeni.

Kuwo wonke uchungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lomnotho, sihlole ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bakusasa buzothuthukisa kanjani ibhizinisi lomhlaba jikelele njengenjwayelo. Futhi nakuba izibonelo zethu zigxile emazweni athuthukile, amazwe asathuthuka azozwa ubuhlungu bokuphazamiseka komnotho okuzayo. Yingakho futhi sisebenzisa lesi sahluko ukugxila ngokuphelele kumathemba omnotho womhlaba osathuthuka.

Ukuze singangeni kule timu, sizogxila e-Afrika. Kodwa ngenkathi senza kanjalo, qaphela ukuthi yonke into esizoyiveza isebenza ngokulinganayo ezizweni zonkana eMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, e-Soviet Bloc yangaphambili, naseNingizimu Melika.

Ibhomu lezibalo zabantu emhlabeni osathuthuka

Ngo-2040, inani labantu emhlabeni lizokhula libe ngaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyisishiyagalolunye. Njengoba kuchaziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lenani Labantu uchungechunge, lokhu kukhula kwezibalo zabantu ngeke kwabiwe ngokulinganayo. Nakuba amazwe athuthukile azobona ukwehla okukhulu nokuba mpunga kwenani labantu, amazwe asathuthuka azobona okuphambene.

Akukho lapho okuyiqiniso lokhu njengase-Afrika, izwekazi okubikezelwa ukuthi lingeza abanye abantu abayizigidi ezingu-800 eminyakeni engu-20 ezayo, lifinyelele ngaphezudlwana kwezigidigidi ezimbili ngo-2040. INigeria iyodwa izobona inani labantu bakhona likhula lisuka ezigidini eziyi-190 ngo-2017 liya ezigidini ezingama-327 ngo-2040. Sekukonke, i-Afrika imiselwe ukumunca ukwanda kwabantu okukhulu nokushesha kakhulu emlandweni wesintu.

Konke lokhu kukhula akuveli ngaphandle kwezinselelo zakho. Kabili abasebenzi baphinde basho kabili imilomo ukondla, indlu, nokuqasha, ingasaphathwa ephindwe kabili enani labavoti. Kodwa lokhu kuphindeka kabili kwabasebenzi base-Afrika bakusasa kudala ithuba lokuba amazwe ase-Afrika alingise isimangaliso somnotho waseShayina ngeminyaka yawo-1980 kuya kowezi-2010—okucatshangwa ukuthi uhlelo lwethu lwezomnotho lwesikhathi esizayo luzosebenza kakhulu njengoba lwenzile phakathi nengxenye yekhulunyaka edlule.

Ukusikisela: Ngeke.

I-automation izominyanisa izimboni zomhlaba osathuthuka

Esikhathini esedlule, indlela amazwe ampofu ayeyisebenzisa ukuze aguqule abe yizizinda zezomnotho kwakuwukuheha ukutshalwa kwezimali kohulumeni bamazwe angaphandle kanye nezinkampani ngokushintshanisa imisebenzi yazo eshibhile. Bheka eJalimane, eJapan, eKorea, eShayina, wonke la mazwe aphuma osizini lwempi ngokuheha abakhiqizi ukuthi basungule izitolo emazweni abo futhi basebenzise imisebenzi yabo eshibhile. IMelika yenza okufanayo emakhulwini amabili eminyaka ngaphambili ngokunikeza umsebenzi oshibhile ezinkampanini zama-British Crown.

Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali okuqhubekayo kwamazwe angaphandle kuvumela izwe elisathuthuka ukuthi lifundise futhi liqeqeshe kangcono abasebenzi balo, liqoqe imali edingeka kakhulu, bese liphinde litshale imali engenayo kwingqalasizinda emisha nasezikhungweni zokukhiqiza ezivumela izwe ukuthi lihehe kancane kancane ukutshalwa kwezimali kwangaphandle okwengeziwe okubandakanya ukukhiqiza. izimpahla namasevisi athuthuke kakhulu futhi ahola kakhulu. Ngokuyisisekelo, lena yindaba yoguquko ukusuka emnothweni wabasebenzi abanamakhono aphansi ukuya kwephezulu.

Leli su lezezimboni lisebenze isikhathi nesikhathi futhi futhi emakhulwini eminyaka manje, kodwa lingaphazanyiswa ngokokuqala ngqá umkhuba okhulayo wokuzenzakalela okuxoxwe ngawo ku. isahluko sesithathu yalolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lomnotho.

Cabanga ngalokhu ngale ndlela: Lonke isu lezezimboni elichazwe ngenhla lincike kubatshalizimali bakwamanye amazwe ababheke ngaphandle kwemingcele yamazwe abo ukuze bathole umsebenzi oshibhile ukuze bakhiqize izimpahla namasevisi abangawangenisa ekhaya ukuze bathole inzuzo ephezulu. Kodwa uma laba batshalizimali bengakwazi ukutshala imali nje kumarobhothi nakubuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI) ukuze bakhiqize izimpahla nezinsizakalo zabo, isidingo sokuya phesheya kwezilwandle siyancibilika.

Ngokwesilinganiso, irobhothi lasembonini elikhiqiza izimpahla ezingu-24/7 lingazikhokhela ngaphezu kwezinyanga ezingu-24. Ngemva kwalokho, wonke umsebenzi wesikhathi esizayo umahhala. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma inkampani yakhela imboni yayo emhlabathini wasekhaya, ingagwema ngokuphelele izindleko zemikhumbi zamazwe ngamazwe ezibizayo, kanye nokusebenzisana okudumazayo nabangenisa kwamanye amazwe nabathumela ngaphandle. Izinkampani zizophinde zibe nokulawula okungcono emikhiqizweni yazo, zingathuthukisa imikhiqizo emisha ngokushesha, futhi zingavikela impahla yazo yengqondo ngempumelelo kakhudlwana.

Maphakathi nawo-2030, ngeke kusawenza umqondo wezomnotho ukukhiqiza izimpahla phesheya kwezilwandle uma usunezindlela zokuba ngawakho amarobhothi.

Futhi yilapho esinye isicathulo sehla khona. Lezo zizwe esezivele zinesiqalo sokuqala kumarobhothi kanye ne-AI (njenge-US, China, Japan, Germany) izodlala eqhweni inzuzo yazo yezobuchwepheshe ngokubonakalayo. Njengoba nje ukungalingani kweholo kuba kubi phakathi kwabantu emhlabeni wonke, ukungalingani kwezimboni nakho kuzoba kubi kakhulu eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo.

Amazwe asathuthuka ngeke nje abe nayo imali yokuncintisana emjahweni wokuthuthukisa amarobhothi esizukulwane esilandelayo ne-AI. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe kuzoqala ukugxila kulawo mazwe anezimboni zamarobhothi ezishesha kakhulu, ezisebenza kahle kakhulu. Khonamanjalo, amazwe asathuthuka azoqala ukuzwa lokho abanye abakubiza ngokuthi "deindustrialization ngaphambi kwesikhathi"lapho la mazwe eqala khona ukubona amafekthri awo engasasetshenziswa futhi inqubekelaphambili yezomnotho iyama futhi ihlehla.

Uma sibeka ngenye indlela, amarobhothi azovumela amazwe acebile, athuthukile ukuba abe nezisebenzi ezishibhile kunamazwe asathuthuka, ngisho nalapho inani labantu bawo liqhuma. Futhi njengoba ubungase ulindele, ukuba namakhulu ezigidi zentsha engenawo amathemba omsebenzi kuyindlela yokungaqini kahle komphakathi.

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kudonsela phansi izwe elithuthukayo

Uma i-automation ibingeyimbi ngokwanele, imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu izogqama nakakhulu eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo. Futhi nakuba ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okudlulele kuyindaba yezokuphepha kazwelonke yawo wonke amazwe, kuyingozi ikakhulukazi emazweni asathuthuka angenayo ingqalasizinda yokuzivikela kukho.

Singena ngemininingwane eminingi ngalesi sihloko kwethi Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu uchungechunge, kodwa ngenxa yengxoxo yethu lapha, ake sithi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okuba kubi kakhulu kuzosho ukusweleka kwamanzi ahlanzekile kanye nokuphazamiseka kwesivuno emazweni asathuthuka.

Ngakho-ke ngaphezu kokuzenzakalela, singaphinde silindele ukushoda kokudla namanzi ezifundeni ezinezibalo zabantu. Kodwa kuba kubi kakhulu.

Ukuphahlazeka ezimakethe zikawoyela

Kuqale kushiwo ku isahluko sesibili yalolu chungechunge, u-2022 uzobona isiphetho samandla elanga nezimoto zikagesi lapho izindleko zazo zizokwehla kakhulu kangangokuthi zizoba yizinketho ezikhethwayo zamandla kanye nezokuthutha ukuze izizwe nabantu ngabanye batshale imali kuzo. Kusukela lapho, iminyaka engamashumi amabili ezayo izobona ukwehla kwezinga lentengo kawoyela njengoba izimoto ezimbalwa nezimboni eziphehla amandla zisebenzisa uphethiloli ukuze zibe namandla.

Lezi yizindaba ezinhle zemvelo. Lezi futhi izindaba ezinyantisayo emazweni amaningi athuthukile nasathuthuka e-Afrika, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, naseRussia umnotho wazo oncike kakhulu emalini etholwa uwoyela ukuze uhlale uqinile.

Futhi ngokuncipha kwemali engenayo kawoyela, lawa mazwe ngeke abe nezinsiza ezidingekayo ukuze aqhudelane nezomnotho ukusetshenziswa kwazo kwamarobhothi kanye ne-AI okwandayo. Okubi nakakhulu, le mali enciphayo izonciphisa ikhono labaholi balezi zizwe abangontamo-lukhuni ukuthi bakhokhele amasosha abo kanye nozakwabo ababalulekile, futhi njengoba usuzofunda, lokhu akuyona into enhle ngaso sonke isikhathi.

Ukubusa okungalungile, izingxabano, kanye nokufuduka okukhulu kwasenyakatho

Okokugcina, mhlawumbe into edabukisa kakhulu kulolu hlu kuze kube manje ukuthi iningi lamazwe asathuthuka esikhuluma ngawo ahlushwa ukubusa okumpofu nokungameleli.

Omashiqela. Imibuso enegunya. Abaningi balaba baholi nezinhlelo ezibusayo batshala imali encane ngenhloso kubantu babo (kokubili kwezemfundo kanye nengqalasizinda) ukuze bazicebise kangcono futhi bagcine ukulawula.

Kodwa njengoba ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe kanye nemali kawoyela yoma emashumini eminyaka ezayo, kuzoba nzima kakhulu kulaba bashiqela ukukhokhela amasosha abo kanye nabanye abanamandla. Futhi ngaphandle kwemali yokugwazela ukukhokhela ukwethembeka, ukubamba kwabo amandla ekugcineni kuzokwehla ngenxa yokuketula umbuso kwamasosha noma ukuvukela okudumile. Manje nakuba kungase kusilingo ukukholelwa ukuthi imibuso yentando yeningi evuthiwe izophakama esikhundleni sayo, ngokuvamile, omashiqela bathathelwa indawo abanye omashiqela noma ukungabi namthetho ngokuphelele.   

Kuhlanganiswe ndawonye—imishini ezenzakalelayo, ukufinyeleleka kwamanzi nokudla okubi kakhulu, ukwehla kwemali etholwayo kawoyela, ukubusa okungekuhle—isibikezelo sesikhathi eside samazwe asathuthuka sibi, ukusho okungenani.

Futhi masingacabangi ukuthi amazwe athuthukile avinjwe yiziphetho zalezi zizwe ezimpofu. Lapho izizwe zibhidlika, abantu abawahlanganisayo ababhidliki nazo. Kunalokho, laba bantu bafudukela emadlelweni aluhlaza.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi singabona izigidi eziningi zesimo sezulu, ezomnotho, kanye nababaleki/abafuduki bempi bebaleka besuka eNingizimu Melika beya eNyakatho Melika nase-Afrika naseMpumalanga Ephakathi beya eYurophu. Sidinga kuphela ukukhumbula umthelela wezenhlalo, wezepolitiki, kanye nezomnotho ababaleki baseSyria abayisigidi ezwenikazi lase-Europe ukuze bathole ubungozi obungalethwa ukufuduka.

Nokho naphezu kwakho konke lokhu kwesaba, ithemba lisekhona.

Indlela yokuphuma kumjikelezo wokufa

Lezi zindlela okuxoxwe ngazo ngenhla zizokwenzeka futhi azinakugwenywa, kodwa ukuthi zizokwenzeka kangakanani kusasele impikiswano. Izindaba ezinhle ukuthi uma zilawulwa ngokuphumelelayo, usongo lwendlala enkulu, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi, nezingxabano zingancishiswa kakhulu. Cabangela lezi zici eziphikisanayo nenhlekelele nesigayegaye esingenhla.

Ukungena kwe-inthanethi. Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020s, ukungena ku-inthanethi kuzofinyelela ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-80 emhlabeni jikelele. Lokho kusho ukuthi abanye abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu (iningi labo emazweni asathuthuka) bazothola ukufinyelela ku-inthanethi kanye nazo zonke izinzuzo zomnotho esezizilethile emazweni athuthukile. Lokhu kufinyelela okusha kwedijithali emazweni asathuthuka kuzogqugquzela umsebenzi obalulekile, omusha wezomnotho, njengoba kuchazwe ku isahluko sokuqala bakithi Ikusasa le-inthanethi chungechunge.

Ukuthuthukisa ukubusa. Ukwehla kwemali engenayo kawoyela kuzokwenzeka kancane kancane eminyakeni engamashumi amabili. Nakuba kuyishwa ngemibuso enegunya, ibanika isikhathi sokuzivumelanisa nezimo ngokutshala imali yabo yamanje ezimbonini ezintsha, bakhulule umnotho wabo, futhi kancane kancane banikeze abantu babo inkululeko eyengeziwe—isibonelo yiSaudi Arabia Umbono we-2030 Thatha isinyathelo kuqala. 

Ukuthengisa izinsiza zemvelo. Nakuba ukufinyelela kwabasebenzi kuzokwehla ngenani ohlelweni lwethu lwezomnotho lomhlaba wonke lwesikhathi esizayo, ukufinyelela ezinsizeni kuzokhuphuka kuphela inani, ikakhulukazi njengoba inani labantu likhula futhi liqala ukufuna amazinga okuphila angcono. Ngenhlanhla, amazwe asathuthuka anensada yemithombo yemvelo ngaphezu kukawoyela nje. Ngokufana nokusebenzisana kweShayina namazwe ase-Afrika, lawa mazwe asathuthuka angahweba ngezinsiza zawo ukuze athole ingqalasizinda entsha kanye nokufinyelela okuhle ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle.

Imali Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke. Lesi yisihloko esisihlanganisa ngokuningiliziwe esahlukweni esilandelayo salolu chungechunge. Kodwa ngenxa yengxoxo yethu lapha. I-Universal Basic Income (UBI) empeleni iyimali yamahhala uhulumeni akunika yona nyanga zonke, efana nempesheni yabadala. Nakuba kubiza ukuqalisa emazweni athuthukile, emazweni asathuthuka lapho izinga lokuphila lishibhe kakhulu, i-UBI ingenzeka kakhulu—kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ixhaswa ngemali yangaphakathi noma ngabanikeli bangaphandle. Uhlelo olunjalo lungaqeda ubumpofu emazweni asathuthuka futhi ludale imali eyanele etholakalayo phakathi kwabantu abaningi ukuze kusimame umnotho omusha.

Ukulawula ukuzalwa. Ukugqugquzelwa kokuhlela umndeni kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwezindlela zokuvimbela inzalo zamahhala kunganciphisa ukukhula kwenani labantu okungalawuleki esikhathini eside. Izinhlelo ezinjalo zishibhile ukuxhasa, kodwa kunzima ukuzisebenzisa uma kubhekwa ukuthambekela kwezenkolo kwabaholi abathile.

Indawo yokuhweba evaliwe. Ukusabela kunzuzo enkulu yezimboni izwe lezimboni elizothuthuka kulo emashumini eminyaka azayo, amazwe asathuthuka azogqugquzelwa ukuthi enze izivimbelo zohwebo noma intela ephakeme yempahla evela emazweni athuthukile ngomzamo wokwakha imboni yawo yasekhaya nokuvikela imisebenzi yabantu, konke. ukugwema izinxushunxushu emphakathini. E-Afrika, isibonelo, singabona indawo yokuhwebelana kwezomnotho evaliwe evuna ukuhwebelana kwezwekazi ngaphezu kohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. Lolu hlobo lwenqubomgomo yokuvikela enolaka lungakhuthaza utshalomali lwangaphandle oluvela emazweni athuthukile ukuze lufinyelele kule makethe yezwekazi evaliwe.

Ukungathembeki kwabafuduki. Kusukela ngo-2017, iTurkey isebenzise imingcele yayo ngenkuthalo futhi yavikela i-European Union esikhukhuleni sababaleki abasha baseSyria. ITurkey ayizange ikwenze lokho ngenxa yothando lokuzinza kweYurophu, kodwa ngokushintshanisa izigidigidi zamaRandi kanye nenani lezivumelwano zezombangazwe zesikhathi esizayo. Uma kwenzeka izinto ziba zimbi esikhathini esizayo, akukhona okungenangqondo ukucabanga ukuthi amazwe asathuthuka azofuna uxhaso olufanayo kanye nezivumelwano ezivela emazweni athuthukile ukuze avikeleke ezigidini zabafuduki abafuna ukubalekela indlala, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi noma izingxabano.

Imisebenzi yengqalasizinda. Njengasezweni elithuthukile, amazwe asathuthuka angabona ukudalwa kwemisebenzi elingana nesizukulwane sonke ngokutshala imali kungqalasizinda kazwelonke neyasemadolobheni kanye namaphrojekthi anamandla aluhlaza.

Imisebenzi yesevisi. Ngokufanayo naleli phuzu elingenhla, njengoba nje imisebenzi yezinsizakalo ithatha indawo yemisebenzi yokukhiqiza emazweni athuthukile, kanjalo nokuhlinzeka ngemisebenzi (okungenzeka) esikhundleni semisebenzi yokukhiqiza emazweni asathuthuka. Lena imisebenzi ekhokha kahle, yasendaweni engakwazi ukuzenzela kalula. Isibonelo, imisebenzi kwezemfundo, ukunakekelwa kwezempilo kanye nobuhlengikazi, ezokuzijabulisa, lena imisebenzi ezophindaphindeka kakhulu, ikakhulukazi njengoba ukungena ku-inthanethi kanye nenkululeko yomphakathi ikhula.

Ingabe amazwe asathuthuka angagxumela esikhathini esizayo?

Amaphuzu amabili adlule adinga ukunakwa okukhethekile. Eminyakeni engamakhulu amabili kuya kwamathathu edlule, iresiphi evivinywe isikhathi eside yokuthuthukiswa komnotho bekuwukufukula umnotho wezimboni ogxile kwezokukhiqiza ezinamakhono aphansi, bese kusetshenziswa inzuzo yakhe ukwakha ingqalasizinda yezwe bese kamuva ishintshela emnothweni osekelwe ekusetshenzisweni. ngamakhono aphezulu, imisebenzi yomkhakha wezinsizakalo. Lena indlela eyathathwa yi-UK, kwase kuba yi-US, Germany, kanye ne-Japan ngemva kwe-WWII, kanye ne-China yakamuva (ngokusobala, sicwebezela ezinye izizwe eziningi, kodwa uyalithola iphuzu).

Kodwa-ke, ngezingxenye eziningi ze-Afrika, iMpumalanga Ephakathi, nezinye izizwe eziseNingizimu Melika nase-Asia, le ndlela yokuthuthukisa umnotho ingase ingasatholakali kubo. Amazwe athuthukile angompetha bamarobhothi asebenza nge-AI maduze azokwakha isizinda esikhulu sokukhiqiza esizokhiqiza inala yezimpahla ngaphandle kwesidingo sokusebenza kwabantu okubizayo.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi amazwe asathuthuka azobhekana nezinketho ezimbili. Vumela umnotho wabo ume futhi uncike phakade osizweni oluvela emazweni asethuthukile. Noma bangasungula izinto ezintsha ngokugxumela phezulu kwesigaba somnotho wezimboni ngokuphelele futhi bakhe umnotho ozondleka ngokuphelele phezu kwengqalasizinda nemisebenzi yomkhakha wezinsizakalo.

Ukudlulela phambili okunjalo kuzoncika kakhulu ekubuseni okuphumelelayo kanye nobuchwepheshe obusha obuphazamisayo (isb. Ukungena ku-inthanethi, amandla aluhlaza, ama-GMO, njll.), kodwa lawo mazwe asathuthuka anamandla okwenza lokhu kugxuma cishe azohlala enokuncintisana emakethe yomhlaba.

Sekukonke, ukuthi ohulumeni noma imibuso yalezi zizwe ezisathuthuka isebenzisa ngokushesha futhi ngempumelelo kangakanani inguquko eyodwa noma ngaphezulu yalezi zinguquko ezishiwo ngenhla kuncike emandleni abo nokuthi bazibona kahle kangakanani izingozi ezizayo. Kodwa njengomthetho ojwayelekile, iminyaka engu-20 ezayo ngeke ibe lula nganoma iyiphi indlela emazweni asathuthuka.

Ikusasa lochungechunge lwezomnotho

Ukungalingani kwengcebo eyedlulele kubonisa ukuntengantenga komnotho womhlaba: Ikusasa lomnotho P1

Uguquko lwesithathu lwezimboni ukubangela ukuqubuka kokwehla kwamandla emali: Ikusasa Lomnotho P2

I-Automation ukukhishwa okusha: Ikusasa lomnotho P3

I-Universal Basic Income yelapha ukungasebenzi kwabantu abaningi: Ikusasa lomnotho P5

Izindlela zokwelapha zokwandisa impilo ukuze kuzinziswe umnotho womhlaba: Ikusasa Lomnotho P6

Ikusasa Lentela: Ikusasa Lomnotho P7

Yini ezothatha indawo yobungxiwankulu bendabuko: Ikusasa lomnotho P8