I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Uguquko lwesithathu lwezimboni ukubangela ukuqubuka kokwehla kwamandla emali: Ikusasa Lomnotho P2

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesithathu, 09/16/2020 - 06:00

Ngokungafani nalokho iziteshi zethu zezindaba zamahora angu-24 ezingathanda ukuba sikukholelwe, siphila esikhathini esiphephe kunazo zonke, esicebe kakhulu, nesinokuthula kakhulu emlandweni wesintu. Ubuhlakani bethu obuhlangene buye benza isintu saqeda indlala, izifo, nobumpofu obusakazekile. Okungcono nakakhulu, ngenxa yohlu olubanzi lwezinto ezintsha eziqhubekayo njengamanje, izinga lethu lokuphila lihlehliselwe ukuba lishibhe nakakhulu futhi libe nenala kakhulu.

Nokho, kungani naphezu kwayo yonke le nqubekelaphambili, umnotho wethu uzizwa untekenteke kakhulu kunakuqala? Kungani imali engenayo yangempela incipha ngonyaka ngamunye odlulayo? Futhi kungani izizukulwane zeminyaka eyinkulungwane kanye nezekhulunyaka zizwa zikhathazeke kangaka ngamathemba azo njengoba zikhula zibe abantu abadala? Futhi njengoba isahluko esandulele sichazile, kungani ukwehlukana kwengcebo emhlabeni wonke kuphuma esandleni?

Ayikho impendulo yale mibuzo. Esikhundleni salokho, kukhona iqoqo lezindlela ezedlulanayo, okuyinhloko kuzo ukuthi isintu sidonsa kanzima ezinhlungwini ezikhulayo zokuzivumelanisa nenguquko yesithathu yezimboni.

Ukuqonda inguquko yezimboni yesithathu

Uguquko lwesithathu lwezimboni luwumkhuba osafufusa osanda kuthandwa yisazi saseMelika sezomnotho nezenhlalo, uJeremy Rifkin. Njengoba echaza, uguquko lwezimboni ngalunye lwenzeka lapho kwavela izinto ezintsha ezintathu ezithi zihlangene zavuselela umnotho wangaleso sikhathi. Lezi zindlela ezintathu ezintsha zihlala zihlanganisa impumelelo enkulu kwezokuxhumana (ukuxhumanisa umsebenzi wezomnotho), ezokuthutha (ukuhambisa impahla yezomnotho ngokuphumelelayo), namandla (ukuze kusebenze umsebenzi wezomnotho). Ngokwesibonelo:

Inguquko yokuqala yezimboni ngekhulu le-19 yachazwa ngokusungulwa kwe-telegraph, izitimela (izitimela), namalahle;
Uguquko lwesibili lwezimboni ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-20 lwachazwa ngokusungulwa kocingo, izimoto ezivuthayo zangaphakathi, namafutha ashibhile;
Ekugcineni, uguquko lwesithathu lwezimboni, olwaqala cishe ngawo-90s kodwa lwaqala ukusheshisa ngempela ngemva kuka-2010, lubandakanya ukusungulwa kwe-inthanethi, ezokuthutha ezizenzakalelayo kanye nempahla, namandla avuselelekayo.

Ake sibheke ngokushesha ngayinye yalezi zingxenye kanye nomthelela wazo ngamunye emnothweni obanzi, ngaphambi kokudalula umphumela wokushintsha umnotho ezizowudala ndawonye.

Amakhompiyutha kanye ne-Intanethi kufanekisela ukwehla kwamandla emali

Ezogesi. Isofthiwe. Ukuthuthukiswa kwewebhu. Sihlola lezi zihloko ngokujulile kweyethu ikusasa lamakhompyutha futhi ikusasa le-inthanethi uchungechunge, kodwa ngenxa yengxoxo yethu, nanka amanothi okukopela:

(1) Ukuthuthuka okuqinile, okuqondisiwe koMthetho kaMoore kuvumela inani lama-transistors, intshi ngayinye yesikwele, kumasekethe ahlanganisiwe ukuthi aphindeke kabili cishe njalo ngonyaka. Lokhu kwenza zonke izinhlobo ze-electronics zibe zincane futhi zibe namandla kakhulu unyaka ngamunye odlulayo.

(2) Le miniaturization maduze izoholela ekukhuleni kokuqhuma kwe- Inthanethi Things (IoT) maphakathi nawo-2020s esizobona amakhompuyutha aseduze-microscopic noma izinzwa zishunyekwe kuwo wonke umkhiqizo esiwuthengayo. Lokhu kuzodala imikhiqizo "ehlakaniphile" ezohlala ixhunywe kuwebhu, okuvumela abantu, amadolobha, nohulumeni ukuthi baqaphe, balawule, futhi bathuthukise indlela esisebenzisa futhi sisebenzisana ngayo nezinto ezibonakalayo ezisizungezile.

(3) Zonke lezi zinzwa ezishumekwe kuyo yonke le mikhiqizo ehlakaniphile zizodala intaba yansuku zonke yedatha enkulu okuzoba nzima ukuyiphatha uma kungenjalo ngenxa yokwanda kwedatha. amakhompyutha we-quantum. Ngenhlanhla, maphakathi no-2020s, amakhompyutha we-quantum asebenzayo azokwenza ukucubungula amanani angcolile omdlalo wedatha wengane.

(4) Kodwa ukucutshungulwa kwe-quantum yedatha enkulu kuwusizo kuphela uma singakwazi futhi ukwenza umqondo wale datha, kulapho ubuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI, noma lokho abanye abakhetha ukukubiza ngokuthi ama-algorithms okufunda komshini okuthuthukile) kungena. Lawa masistimu e-AI azosebenza eduze kwabantu. ukwenza umqondo wayo yonke idatha emisha eyenziwa yi-IoT futhi ivumele abenzi bezinqumo kuzo zonke izimboni kanye nawo wonke amazinga kahulumeni ukuthi benze izinqumo ezinolwazi.

(5) Okokugcina, wonke amaphuzu angenhla azokhuliswa kuphela yi- ukukhula kwe-inthanethi uqobo. Njengamanje, ngaphansi kwesigamu somhlaba one-inthanethi. Maphakathi nawo-2020, ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-80 omhlaba azothola ukufinyelela kuwebhu. Lokhu kusho ukuthi uguquko lwe-inthanethi olujatshulelwe umhlaba othuthukile emashumini amabili eminyaka adlule luzonwetshwa kuso sonke isintu.

Kulungile, njengoba manje sesibambekile, ungase ucabange ukuthi zonke lezi zenzakalo zizwakala njengezinto ezinhle. Futhi ngokuvamile, uzobe ulungile. Ukuthuthukiswa kwamakhompuyutha kanye ne-inthanethi kuthuthukise izinga lempilo yomuntu ngamunye elimthintile. Kodwa ake sibheke banzi.

Ngenxa ye-inthanethi, abathengi banamuhla banolwazi kakhulu kunangaphambili. Ikhono lokufunda izibuyekezo nokuqhathanisa izintengo ku-inthanethi libangele ingcindezi engapheli yokwehlisa izintengo kukho konke okwenziwayo kwe-B2B ne-B2C. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abathengi banamuhla abadingi ukuthenga endaweni; bangathola amadili angcono kakhulu kunoma yimuphi umhlinzeki oxhumeke kuwebhu, kungaba e-US, EU, China, noma yikuphi.

Sekukonke, i-inthanethi isebenze njengamandla aphansi okwehlisa amandla okushintshashintsha phakathi kokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okwakuvamile kuyo yonke iminyaka yawo-1900. Ngamanye amazwi, izimpi zamanani ezinikwe amandla ku-inthanethi kanye nokuncintisana okwandisiwe yizici ezinkulu ezigcine ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzinzile futhi kuphansi cishe amashumi amabili eminyaka kuze kube manje.

Futhi, amazinga aphansi e-inflation awayona ngempela into embi esikhathini esiseduze njengoba evumela umuntu ovamile ukuthi aqhubeke nokukhokhela izidingo zokuphila. Inkinga ukuthi njengoba lobu buchwepheshe bukhula futhi bukhula, kanjalo nemiphumela yabo yokunciphisa amandla (iphuzu esizolilandela kamuva).

I-Solar ifinyelela iphuzu lokunikeza

Ukukhula kwe amandla elanga iyi-tsunami ezogubuzela umhlaba ngo-2022. Njengoba kuchaziwe kweyethu ikusasa lamandla uchungechunge, ilanga kufanele lishibhe kunamalahle (ngaphandle koxhaso) ngo-2022, emhlabeni jikelele.

Lesi yiphuzu eliyingqopha-mlando ngoba ngesikhathi lokhu kwenzeka, ngeke kusawenza umqondo wezomnotho ukutshala imali eyengeziwe emithonjeni yamandla asuselwa kukhabhoni njengamalahle, uwoyela, noma igesi yemvelo kagesi. I-Solar izobe isibusa konke ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda yamandla amasha emhlabeni jikelele, ngaphezu kwalokho ezinye izinhlobo zokuvuselelwa abenza ukuncishiswa kwezindleko okulinganayo.

(Ukugwema noma yikuphi ukuphawula okuthukuthele, yebo, i-nuclear ephephile, i-fusion kanye ne-thorium imithombo yamandla e-wildcard engase ibe nomthelela omkhulu ezimakethe zethu zamandla. Kodwa uma le mithombo yamandla ingathuthukiswa, izofika kuqala endaweni yesehlakalo ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020, okushiya isiqalo esikhulu solar.)

Manje kufika umthelela wezomnotho. Ngokufana nomthelela wokwehliswa kwamandla okusebenza kwe-elekthronikhi kanye ne-inthanethi enikwe amandla, ukukhula kwezinto ezivuselelekayo kuzoba nomthelela wesikhathi eside wokunciphisa amanani kagesi emhlabeni jikelele ngemuva kuka-2025.

Cabanga ngalokhu: Ngo-1977, i- izindleko ze-watt eyodwa ugesi welanga wawungu-$76. Ngo-2016, lokho kubiza kunciphile namuhla sise-0.45 $. Futhi ngokungafani nezitshalo zikagesi osuselwa kukhabhoni ezidinga okokufaka okumba eqolo (amalahle, igesi, uwoyela), ukufakwa kwe-solar kuqoqa amandla ako elangeni mahhala, okwenza izindleko ezengeziwe ze-solar zicishe zibe ziro ngemva kokuba izindleko zokufakwa zibaliwe. Uma wengeza lokhu ukuthi njalo ngonyaka, ukufakwa kwe-solar kuya ishibhile futhi ukusebenza kahle kwamaphaneli elanga kuyathuthuka, ekugcineni sizongena emhlabeni ogcwele amandla lapho ugesi ushibhile.

Kumuntu ojwayelekile, lezi yizindaba ezinhle. Izindleko zezinsiza eziphansi kakhulu futhi (ikakhulukazi uma uhlala edolobheni laseShayina) umoya ohlanzekile, ophefumulayo. Kodwa kubatshalizimali ezimakethe zamandla, lezi akuzona izindaba ezinkulu kakhulu. Futhi kulawo mazwe imali yawo engenayo incike ekuthengisweni kwezisetshenziswa zemvelo njengamalahle namafutha, lokhu kushintshela ku-solar kungasho inhlekelele emnothweni wabo wezwe kanye nokuzinza komphakathi.

Izimoto zikagesi, ezizishayelayo ukuze ziguqule ezokuthutha futhi zibulale izimakethe zikawoyela

Cishe ufunde konke ngabo kwabezindaba kule minyaka embalwa edlule, futhi ngethemba, kweyethu ikusasa lezokuthutha uchungechunge futhi: izimoto kagesi (EVs) kanye izimoto ezizimele (ama-AV). Sizokhuluma ngazo ndawonye ngoba njengenhlanhla, zombili lezi zindlela ezintsha zizofinyelela amaphuzu azo athuthukile cishe ngesikhathi esifanayo.

Ngo-2020-22, abakhiqizi bezimoto abaningi babikezela ukuthi ama-AV abo azothuthuka ngokwanele ukuthi azishayele ngokuzenzakalelayo, ngaphandle kwesidingo somshayeli onelayisensi ngemuva kwesondo. Yebo, ukwamukelwa esidlangalaleni kwama-AV, kanye nomthetho ovumela ukuphatha kwawo mahhala emigwaqweni yethu, cishe kuzobambezela ukusetshenziswa okusabalele kwama-AV kuze kube ngu-2027-2030 emazweni amaningi. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kuthatha isikhathi esingakanani, ukufika ekugcineni kwama-AV emigwaqweni yethu akunakugwenywa.

Ngokunjalo, ngo-2022, abakhiqizi bezimoto (abanjengoTesla) babikezela ukuthi ama-EV ekugcineni azofinyelela ukulingana kwamanani nezimoto ezivamile zenjini evuthayo, ngaphandle koxhaso. Futhi njenge-solar, ubuchwepheshe obungemuva kwe-EV buzothuthuka kuphela, okusho ukuthi ama-EV kancane kancane azoshibha kunezimoto ezivuthayo unyaka ngamunye ukuya phambili ngemva kokulingana kwentengo. Njengoba lo mkhuba uqhubeka, abathengi abaqaphela amanani bazokhetha ukuthenga ama-EV ngobuningi, okubangele ukwehla kokuphela kwezimoto ezivuthayo ezimakethe phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili noma ngaphansi.

Futhi, kumthengi ojwayelekile, lezi yizindaba ezinhle. Bazokwazi ukuthenga izimoto ezishibhile kancane kancane, ezihambisana nemvelo, ezinezindleko zokunakekela eziphansi kakhulu, futhi ezinikwa amandla kagesi (njengoba sifundile ngenhla) uzogcina ushibhile. Futhi ngo-2030, iningi labathengi lizohoxa ekuthengeni izimoto ezibizayo ngokuphelele futhi esikhundleni salokho bagxumele kwisevisi yamatekisi efana ne-Uber ama-EV akhona angashayeli azobahambisa ngamasenti ikhilomitha.

Okubi nokho ukulahlekelwa amakhulu ezigidi zemisebenzi ehlobene nomkhakha wezimoto (okuchazwe kabanzi ngekusasa lethu lochungechunge lwezokuthutha), ukuncipha kancane kwezimakethe zezikweletu njengoba bembalwa abantu abazoboleka imali ukuze bathenge izimoto, kanye nokunye. amandla e-deflationary ezimakethe ezibanzi njengamaloli e-EV azimele anciphisa kakhulu izindleko zokuthutha, ngaleyo ndlela ehlisa izindleko zakho konke esikuthengayo.

I-Automation iwukukhipha okusha

Amarobhothi kanye ne-AI, asephenduke i-boogeyman yesizukulwane senkulungwane yenkulungwane esabisa ngokwenza cishe ingxenye yemisebenzi yanamuhla iphelelwe yisikhathi ngo-2040. Sihlola okuzenzakalelayo ngokuningiliziwe kwethi ikusasa lomsebenzi uchungechunge, futhi kulolu chungechunge, sinikela sonke isahluko esilandelayo esihlokweni.

Kodwa okwamanje, iphuzu eliyinhloko okufanele likhunjulwe ukuthi njengoba nje ama-MP3 kanye nama-Napster akhubaza imboni yomculo ngokwehlisa izindleko zokukopisha nokusabalalisa umculo ku-zero, i-automation kancane kancane izokwenza okufanayo ezimpahleni eziningi ezibonakalayo nasezinsizeni zedijithali. Ngokuzenzakalela izingxenye ezinkulu kakhulu zesitezi sefekthri, abakhiqizi bazokwehlisa kancane kancane izindleko ezimaphethelweni zawo wonke umkhiqizo abawenzayo.

(Qaphela: Izindleko eziphansi zisho izindleko zokukhiqiza impahla eyengeziwe noma isevisi ngemva kokuba umkhiqizi noma umhlinzeki wesevisi ebambe zonke izindleko ezingashintshi.)

Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, sizophinde sigcizelele ukuthi i-automation izoba yinzuzo enkulu kubathengi, njengoba amarobhothi akhiqiza zonke izimpahla zethu futhi alima konke ukudla kwethu anganciphisa izindleko zakho konke nakakhulu. Kodwa njengoba kungase kuqagele, akuwona wonke ama-roses.

Ukuchichima okungaholela kanjani ekucindezelekeni komnotho

I-inthanethi ishayela ukuncintisana okuxakile nezimpi ezinonya zokwehliswa kwamanani. I-Solar ibulala izikweletu zethu zezinsiza. Ama-EV nama-AV ehlisa izindleko zokuhamba. I-automation yenza yonke imikhiqizo yethu ilungele i-Dollar Store. Lezi ezimbalwa nje zentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ezingagcini ngokuba ngokoqobo kuphela kodwa zibopha uzungu lokunciphisa ngokuphawulekayo izindleko zokuphila zawo wonke amadoda, owesifazane, kanye nengane emhlabeni. Ezinhlotsheni zethu zezilwane, lokhu kuzomela ukuguqukela kwethu kancane kancane enkathini yenala, inkathi enobulungiswa lapho bonke abantu bomhlaba bengagcina bejabulela indlela yokuphila yokuceba ngendlela efanayo.

Inkinga ukuthi ukuze umnotho wethu wesimanje usebenze ngendlela, kuncike ekutheni kube nezinga elithile le-inflation. Khonamanjalo, njengoba kuke kwaphawulwa ngaphambili, lezi zindlela ezintsha ezidonsayo ezidonsa izindleko zokuphila kwansuku zonke zehle ziye kuqanda, ngokwencazelo, zingamandla okunciphisa amandla. Ndawonye, lezi zindlela ezintsha zizophusha kancane kancane umnotho wethu ufinyelele esimweni sokuma kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali. Futhi uma kungenzeki lutho olunzima ngenelela, singagcina sisesimweni sokuwohloka komnotho noma ukucindezeleka.

(Kulabo ongqondongqondo abangekho kwezomnotho, i-deflation yimbi ngoba yize yenza izinto zishibhile, iphinde yome nesidingo sokuthengwa nokutshala imali. Uyithengeleni leyo moto manje uma wazi ukuthi izobiza ngenyanga ezayo noma ngonyaka ozayo? Kungani utshala imali esitokisini namuhla uma wazi ukuthi izophinde iwe kusasa.Uma abantu belindele isikhathi eside ukuthi i-deflation ihlale, lapho beqongelela imali yabo, lapho bethenga kancane, kuzodingeka amabhizinisi amaningi ukuthi aqedele izimpahla futhi adilize abantu, njalo njalo. umgodi wokuwohloka komnotho.)

Ohulumeni, vele, bazozama ukusebenzisa amathuluzi abo ezomnotho ajwayelekile ukulwa nalokhu kwehla kwamandla emali—ikakhulukazi, ukusetshenziswa kwamazinga enzalo aphansi kakhulu noma ngisho nenzalo engemihle. Inkinga iwukuthi nakuba lezi zinqubomgomo zinemiphumela emihle yesikhathi esifushane ekusetshenzisweni kwemali, ukusebenzisa amanani enzalo ephansi isikhathi eside kungase kubangele imiphumela enobuthi, okuholela ngendlela exakayo ukubuyisela umnotho kumjikelezo wokuwohloka komnotho. Kungani?

Ngoba, okokuqala, amanani enzalo ephansi asongela ukuba khona kwamabhange. Amazinga enzalo ephansi enza kube nzima ngamabhange ukwenza inzuzo ngezinsizakalo zezikweletu azinikezayo. Inzuzo ephansi isho ukuthi amanye amabhange azokwenqaba kakhulu ubungozi futhi anciphise inani lesikweletu alibolekayo, okubuye kucindezele ukusetshenziswa kwabathengi kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi kukonke. Ngokuphambene, izilinganiso zenzalo ephansi zingase futhi zikhuthaze amabhange athile ukuthi azibandakanye ekuhwebeni kwebhizinisi okuyingozi ukuya kwabangekho emthethweni ukuze abuyisele inzuzo elahlekile evela kumsebenzi ojwayelekile wokuboleka amabhange omthengi.

Ngokunjalo, amanani enzalo ephansi ende ende aholela kulokho I-Forbes' Panos Mourdoukoutas ibiza "pent-down" funa. Ukuze siqonde ukuthi leli gama lisho ukuthini, sidinga ukukhumbula ukuthi iphuzu eliphelele lenzalo ephansi ukukhuthaza abantu ukuthi bathenge amathikithi amakhulu namuhla, kunokuba bayeke ukuthenga kusasa lapho belindele ukuthi amanani enzalo aphinde anyuke. Kodwa-ke, lapho amanani enzalo ephansi esetshenziswa isikhathi eside ngokweqile, angaholela ekuwohlokeni komnotho okuvamile—isidingo “sokwehliswa”—lapho wonke umuntu esesikhiphile isikweletu sakhe ukuze athenge izinto ezibizayo abehlele ukuzithenga, okushiya abathengisi bezibuza ukuthi bazodayisela bani esikhathini esizayo. Ngamanye amazwi, izilinganiso zenzalo ezinde zigcina zintshontshe ukuthengisa kusukela esikhathini esizayo, okungase kuholele umnotho ubuyele endaweni yokwehla komnotho.

Indida yalo mguquko wesithathu wezimboni kufanele ngabe iyakushaya manje. Enqubweni yokwenza yonke into ibe inala, yokwenza izindleko zokuphila zifinyeleleke kubantu abaningi, lesi sithembiso sobuchwepheshe, konke kungase kusiholele ekulimaleni kwethu kwezomnotho.

Kunjalo, I'm being overdramatic. Kunezinto eziningi kakhulu ezizoba nomthelela emnothweni wethu wesikhathi esizayo ngezindlela ezinhle nezingezinhle. Izahluko ezimbalwa ezilandelayo zalolu chungechunge zizokwenza kucace lokho.

(Kwabanye abafundi, kungase kube nokudideka okuthile mayelana nokuthi singena enguqukweni yesithathu noma yesine yezimboni. Ukudideka kukhona ngenxa yokuduma kwakamuva kwegama elithi 'inguquko yesine yezimboni' phakathi nengqungquthela yeWorld Economic Forum ka-2016. Nokho, kukhona baningi abagxeki abaphikisana nemibono ye-WEF yokudala leli gama, futhi i-Quantumrun iphakathi kwabo. Noma kunjalo, sixhume isimo se-WEF mayelana nenguquko yesine yezimboni kuzixhumanisi zomthombo ezingezansi.)