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Kusintha kwachitatu kwa mafakitale kuti kudzetse chipwirikiti: Tsogolo lazachuma P2

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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Lachitatu, 09/16/2020 - 06:00

Mosiyana ndi zimene mawailesi athu a nkhani a maola 24 angafune kuti tizikhulupirira, tikukhala m’nthawi yotetezeka, yolemera kwambiri, ndiponso yamtendere kwambiri m’mbiri ya anthu. Luso lathu lonse lathandiza anthu kuthetsa njala, matenda, ndi umphaŵi. Ngakhale zili bwino, chifukwa cha zinthu zambiri zatsopano zomwe zikubwera, moyo wathu watsikirapo mtengo komanso wochulukirachulukira.

Ndipo komabe, n’chifukwa chiyani zili choncho ngakhale kuti zinthu zikuyenda bwino kwambiri, chuma chathu chikusokonekera kwambiri kuposa kale lonse? Chifukwa chiyani ndalama zenizeni zikuchepa pakadutsa zaka khumi? Ndipo nchifukwa ninji mibadwo ya zaka chikwi ndi XNUMX imada nkhaŵa kwambiri ponena za ziyembekezo zawo pamene ikukula mu uchikulire wawo? Ndipo monga momwe mutu wapitawu udafotokozera, chifukwa chiyani kugawikana kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kukuchoka m'manja?

Palibe mayankho ku mafunso awa. M'malo mwake, pali zinthu zambiri zomwe zikuyenda bwino, chachikulu pakati pawo ndi chakuti anthu akulimbana ndi zowawa zomwe zikukula kuti zigwirizane ndi kusintha kwachitatu kwa mafakitale.

Kumvetsetsa chachitatu kusintha kwa mafakitale

Kusintha kwachitatu kwa mafakitale ndi njira yomwe ikubwera yomwe yatchuka posachedwa ndi katswiri wazachuma waku America, Jeremy Rifkin. Monga akufotokozera, kusintha kulikonse kwa mafakitale kunachitika kamodzi kokha zatsopano zitatu zomwe zinayambitsanso chuma chamasiku amenewo. Zatsopano zitatuzi nthawi zonse zimaphatikizapo zotsogola zotsogola m'mayankhulidwe (kugwirizanitsa ntchito zachuma), mayendedwe (kuti asunthire bwino katundu wazachuma), ndi mphamvu (kupititsa patsogolo ntchito zachuma). Mwachitsanzo:

Kusintha koyamba kwa mafakitale m'zaka za zana la 19 kunatanthauzidwa ndi kupangidwa kwa telegraph, locomotives (masitima), ndi malasha;
Kusintha kwachiwiri kwa mafakitale kumayambiriro kwa zaka za zana la 20 kunatanthauzidwa ndi kupangidwa kwa telefoni, magalimoto oyaka mkati, ndi mafuta otsika mtengo;
Pomaliza, kusintha kwachitatu kwa mafakitale, komwe kudayamba cha m'ma 90s koma kudayamba kuchulukira pambuyo pa 2010, kumakhudza kupangidwa kwa intaneti, zoyendera ndi zoyendera, komanso mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa.

Tiyeni tiwone mwachangu chilichonse mwazinthu izi komanso momwe zimakhudzira chuma chambiri, tisanaulule zomwe zidzachitike limodzi.

Makompyuta ndi intaneti zimayimira chithunzithunzi cha deflation

Zamagetsi. Mapulogalamu. Kukula kwa intaneti. Timasanthula mitu iyi mozama m'mitu yathu tsogolo la makompyuta ndi tsogolo la intaneti mndandanda, koma chifukwa cha zokambirana zathu, nazi zolemba zachinyengo:

(1) Kupititsa patsogolo kokhazikika, kotsogozedwa ndi Lamulo la Moore kulola kuchuluka kwa ma transistors, pa mainchesi sikweya imodzi, pamabwalo ophatikizika kuwirikiza kawiri chaka chilichonse. Izi zimathandiza kuti mitundu yonse yamagetsi ikhale yaying'ono ndikukhala yamphamvu kwambiri chaka chilichonse.

(2) Miniaturization iyi posachedwa idzatsogolera kukula koopsa kwa Internet Zinthu (IoT) pofika pakati pa 2020s yomwe idzawona makompyuta ang'onoang'ono kapena masensa omwe ali muzinthu zilizonse zomwe timagula. Izi zipangitsa kuti pakhale zinthu "zanzeru" zomwe zizikhala zolumikizidwa ndi intaneti nthawi zonse, zomwe zimapangitsa anthu, mizinda, ndi maboma kuyang'anira bwino, kuyang'anira, ndi kukonza momwe timagwiritsira ntchito ndi kulumikizana ndi zinthu zomwe zimatizungulira.

(3) Masensa onsewa ophatikizidwa muzinthu zonse zanzeru izi adzapanga phiri lalikulu la tsiku ndi tsiku lomwe lingakhale losatheka kuwongolera ngati sichoncho makompyuta a quantum. Mwamwayi, pofika pakati mpaka kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2020, makompyuta ogwira ntchito a quantum apanga kuseweredwa konyansa kwa ana a data.

(4) Koma quantum processing of big data is only help if we can also make sense of this data, that is where artificial intelligence (AI, kapena zimene ena amakonda kuzitcha advanced machine learning ma aligorivimu) amabwera. Makinawa AI adzagwira ntchito limodzi ndi anthu. kuti amvetsetse zonse zatsopano zomwe zikupangidwa ndi IoT ndikupangitsa opanga zisankho m'mafakitale onse ndi maboma onse kupanga zisankho zodziwika bwino.

(5) Pomaliza, mfundo zonse pamwambapa zidzakulitsidwa ndi kukula kwa intaneti yokha. Pakali pano, ochepera theka la dziko lapansi ali ndi intaneti. Pofika pakati pa zaka za m'ma 2020, anthu oposa 80 pa XNUMX alionse padziko lapansi adzakhala ndi mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito intaneti. Izi zikutanthauza kusintha kwa intaneti komwe mayiko otukuka adasangalalira kwazaka makumi awiri zapitazi kufalikira pakati pa anthu onse.

Chabwino, tsopano popeza tagwidwa, mwina mukuganiza kuti zochitika zonsezi zikumveka ngati zabwino. Ndipo mokulira, mungakhale olondola. Kupanga makompyuta ndi intaneti kwasintha moyo wamunthu aliyense womwe wakhudza. Koma tiyeni tione mokulirapo.

Chifukwa cha intaneti, ogula masiku ano ali ndi chidziwitso kuposa kale. Kutha kuwerenga ndemanga ndi kuyerekeza mitengo pa intaneti kwadzetsa kukakamizidwa kosalekeza kuti achepetse mitengo pazochitika zonse za B2B ndi B2C. Komanso, ogula masiku ano safunika kugula kwanuko; atha kupeza malonda abwino kwambiri kuchokera kwa ogulitsa aliyense wolumikizidwa pa intaneti, ku US, EU, China, kulikonse.

Ponseponse, intaneti yakhala ngati mphamvu yochepetsera mphamvu yomwe yathetsa kusinthasintha kwapakati pakati pa inflation ndi deflation zomwe zinali zofala m'zaka za m'ma 1900. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, nkhondo zamtengo wapatali zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pa intaneti komanso mpikisano wowonjezereka ndi zinthu zazikulu zomwe zapangitsa kuti kukwera kwa mitengo ikhale yolimba komanso yotsika kwa zaka pafupifupi makumi awiri mpaka pano.

Apanso, kutsika kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali sikukhala koyipa kwenikweni chifukwa kumalola munthu wamba kupitirizabe kupeza zofunika pamoyo. Vuto ndilakuti matekinolojewa akamakula ndikukula, momwemonso zotsatira zake za deflationary (mfundo yomwe titsatira pambuyo pake).

Dzuwa limafika pachimake

Kukula kwa dzuwa mphamvu ndi tsunami yomwe idzawononge dziko lonse pofika 2022. Monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu tsogolo la mphamvu mndandanda, dzuwa liyenera kukhala lotsika mtengo kuposa malasha (popanda thandizo) pofika 2022, padziko lonse lapansi.

Izi ndi mbiri yakale kwambiri chifukwa izi zikachitika, sizikhalanso zomveka kuti tigwiritse ntchito ndalama zambiri muzamagetsi opangidwa ndi mpweya monga malasha, mafuta, kapena gasi wamagetsi. Solar idzalamulira ndalama zonse zatsopano zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi, kuwonjezera pa mitundu ina ya zongowonjezwdwa zomwe zikuchepetsanso mtengo womwewo.

(Kupewa mawu okwiya, inde, chitetezo cha nyukiliya, fusion ndi thorium ndi magwero amphamvu a wildcard omwe angakhudzenso kwambiri misika yathu yamagetsi. Chakumapeto kwa 2020s, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti dzuwa liyambe.)

Tsopano pakubwera zotsatira zachuma. Zofanana ndi kutsika kwamagetsi pamagetsi ndi intaneti, kukula kwa zongowonjezwdwa kudzakhala ndi zotsatira za nthawi yayitali pamitengo yamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi pambuyo pa 2025.

Taganizirani izi: Mu 1977, a mtengo wa watt imodzi magetsi adzuwa anali $76. Pofika 2016, mtengowo inagwa mpaka 0.45 $. Ndipo mosiyana ndi magetsi opangidwa ndi kaboni omwe amafunikira magetsi okwera mtengo (malasha, gasi, mafuta), kuyika kwa dzuwa kumatenga mphamvu zawo kuchokera kudzuwa kwaulere, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mtengo wowonjezera wadzuwa ukhale pafupifupi ziro pambuyo poyika ndalamazo. Mukawonjezera kuti pachaka, kuyikira kwa dzuwa kukutsika mtengo ndipo mphamvu za solar zikuyenda bwino, tidzalowa m'dziko lokhala ndi mphamvu zambiri momwe magetsi amakhala otsika mtengo.

Kwa munthu wamba, iyi ndi nkhani yabwino. Ndalama zotsika mtengo komanso (makamaka ngati mukukhala mumzinda waku China) zoyeretsa, mpweya wopumira. Koma kwa osunga ndalama m'misika yamagetsi, iyi mwina sinkhani yayikulu kwambiri. Ndipo kwa mayiko omwe ndalama zawo zimadalira zinthu zachilengedwe zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja monga malasha ndi mafuta, kusintha kumeneku kwa dzuwa kungayambitse tsoka pachuma cha dziko lawo komanso kukhazikika kwa anthu.

Magalimoto amagetsi, odziyendetsa okha kuti asinthe mayendedwe ndikupha misika yamafuta

Mwinamwake mwawerengapo zonse za iwo muzofalitsa zaka zingapo zapitazi, ndipo mwachiyembekezo, m'nkhani yathu tsogolo la zoyendera series komanso: magalimoto a magetsi (EVs) ndi magalimoto odziimira (AVs). Tikambirana za iwo palimodzi chifukwa mwamwayi, zonse zatsopano zakhazikitsidwa kuti zigwirizane ndi mfundo zawo nthawi imodzi.

Pofika chaka cha 2020-22, opanga ma automaker ambiri amalosera kuti ma AV awo azikhala otsogola mokwanira kuti aziyendetsa okha, popanda kufunikira kwa driver yemwe ali ndi chilolezo kumbuyo kwa gudumu. Zachidziwikire, kuvomerezedwa ndi anthu kwa ma AV, komanso malamulo olola kuti azilamulira mwaulele pamisewu yathu, zitha kuchedwetsa kufalikira kwa ma AV mpaka 2027-2030 m'maiko ambiri. Mosasamala kanthu kuti zimatenga nthawi yayitali bwanji, kufika kwa ma AV m'misewu yathu sikungalephereke.

Momwemonso, pofika chaka cha 2022, opanga ma automaker (monga Tesla) amaneneratu kuti ma EV afika pamtengo wofanana ndi magalimoto amtundu wa injini zoyatsira, popanda thandizo. Ndipo monga solar, ukadaulo wakumbuyo kwa ma EV udzangoyenda bwino, kutanthauza kuti ma EV pang'onopang'ono azikhala otsika mtengo kuposa magalimoto oyatsa chaka chilichonse patsogolo pamitengo yamitengo. Pamene izi zikupita patsogolo, ogula okonda mitengo asankha kugula ma EV ambiri, zomwe zikuyambitsa kutsika kwa magalimoto oyaka pamsika pakadutsa zaka makumi awiri kapena kuchepera.

Apanso, kwa ogula wamba, iyi ndi nkhani yabwino. Amafika pogula magalimoto otsika mtengo pang'onopang'ono, omwenso ndi okonda zachilengedwe, omwe amakhala ndi ndalama zochepetsera kukonza, ndipo amayendetsedwa ndi magetsi omwe (monga taphunzirira pamwambapa) amatsika pang'onopang'ono. Ndipo pofika chaka cha 2030, ogula ambiri adzasiya kugula magalimoto amtengo wapatali ndipo m'malo mwake amadumphira mu taxi ngati Uber yomwe ma EV opanda madalaivala amawayendetsa mozungulira ndi XNUMX tambala imodzi.

Choyipa chake ndikutha kwa ntchito mamiliyoni mazana ambiri okhudzana ndi gawo lamagalimoto (talongosoledwa mwatsatanetsatane mtsogolo mwazotsatira zamayendedwe), kutsika pang'ono kwamisika yangongole popeza anthu ochepa adzatenga ngongole kuti agule magalimoto, komanso china. mphamvu zotsika mtengo pamisika yayikulu monga magalimoto odziyimira pawokha a EV amachepetsa kwambiri mtengo wotumizira, potero amachepetsa mtengo wa chilichonse chomwe timagula.

Automation ndiye ntchito yatsopano

Maloboti ndi AI, asanduka a boogeyman a zaka chikwi akuwopseza kuti pafupifupi theka la ntchito zamasiku ano zitheratu pofika 2040. tsogolo la ntchito mndandanda, ndipo pa mndandanda uno, tikupereka mutu wonse wotsatira pa mutuwo.

Koma pakadali pano, mfundo yofunika kukumbukira ndi yakuti monga momwe ma MP3 ndi Napster analepheretsera makampani oimba nyimbo potsitsa mtengo wokopera ndi kugawa nyimbo mpaka ziro, makina opangira makina adzachita chimodzimodzi kwa katundu wambiri wakuthupi ndi ntchito zamakono. Mwa kupanga makina ochulukirachulukira a pansi pa fakitale, opanga adzachepetsa pang'onopang'ono mtengo wa chinthu chilichonse chomwe amapanga.

(Zindikirani: Kutsika mtengo kumatanthawuza mtengo wopangira chinthu china kapena ntchito pambuyo poti wopanga kapena wopereka chithandizo atenga ndalama zonse zokhazikika.)

Pachifukwa ichi, tidzagogomezeranso kuti automation idzakhala yopindulitsa kwa ogula, chifukwa ma robot omwe amapanga katundu wathu wonse ndi kulima chakudya chathu chonse akhoza kuchepetsa mtengo wa chirichonse mopitirira. Koma monga momwe tingaganizire, si maluwa onse.

Momwe kuchuluka kungayambitse kugwa kwachuma

Intaneti ikuyendetsa mpikisano wovuta komanso nkhondo zankhanza zodula mitengo. Solar ikupha mabilu athu othandizira. Ma EV ndi ma AV akutsitsa mtengo wamayendedwe. Makina opanga zinthu zathu zonse za Dollar Store kukhala zokonzeka. Izi ndi zochepa chabe mwa kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo zomwe sizikungochitika zokha koma zikupanga chiwembu chochepetsera mtengo wamoyo kwa mwamuna, mkazi, ndi mwana aliyense padziko lapansi. Kwa zamoyo zathu, izi zidzayimira kusuntha kwathu kwapang'onopang'ono kupita ku nyengo ya kuchuluka, nyengo yabwino momwe anthu onse padziko lapansi atha kusangalala ndi moyo wotukuka womwewo.

Vuto ndilakuti kuti chuma chathu chamakono chigwire bwino ntchito, zimatengera kuti pakhale kuchuluka kwa kukwera kwa mitengo. Pakadali pano, monga tanenera kale, zatsopanozi zomwe zikukokera mtengo watsiku ndi tsiku mpaka ziro, ndi tanthauzo, mphamvu zowononga. Pamodzi, zatsopanozi zidzakankhira chuma chathu pang'onopang'ono kukhala pachimake ndiyeno kutsika. Ndipo ngati palibe chomwe chachitika mwachangu, titha kugwa m'mavuto kapena kupsinjika.

(Kwa anthu omwe si a zachuma omwe ali kunja kuno, deflation ndi yoipa chifukwa ngakhale imapangitsa kuti zinthu zikhale zotsika mtengo, zimachititsanso kuti anthu asamafune kudya komanso ndalama. Bwanji mugule galimotoyo panopa ngati mukudziwa kuti idzakhala yotchipa mwezi wamawa kapena chaka chamawa? mu stock lero ngati mukudziwa kuti igwanso mawa, anthu akamayembekezera kuti deflation ipitirire, akamasunga ndalama zawo, akamagula zochepa, mabizinesi amafunikira kuwononga katundu ndikuchotsa anthu, ndi zina zotero. dzenje la recession.)

Maboma, ndithudi, adzayesa kugwiritsa ntchito zipangizo zawo zachuma kuti athetse kutsika kwakukulu kumeneku, makamaka, kugwiritsa ntchito chiwongoladzanja chotsika kwambiri kapena chiwongoladzanja choipa. Vuto ndiloti ngakhale kuti ndondomekozi zimakhala ndi zotsatira zabwino pakanthawi kochepa pakugwiritsa ntchito ndalama, kugwiritsa ntchito chiwongola dzanja chochepa kwa nthawi yayitali kumatha kuyambitsa poizoni, modabwitsa kubweretsa chuma kubwerera m'nyengo yopumira. Chifukwa chiyani?

Chifukwa chimodzi, chiwongola dzanja chochepa chikuwopseza kukhalapo kwa mabanki. Chiwongola dzanja chochepa chimapangitsa kuti mabanki azivutika kupeza phindu pa ntchito zangongole zomwe amapereka. Phindu lotsika limatanthauza kuti mabanki ena azikhala owopsa kwambiri ndikuchepetsa kuchuluka kwangongole yomwe amabwereketsa, zomwe zimachepetsa ndalama zomwe ogula amawononga komanso mabizinesi onse. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, chiwongola dzanja chochepa chingalimbikitsenso mabanki ena kuti azichita nawo bizinesi yowopsa mpaka yosagwirizana ndi malamulo kuti apeze phindu lomwe latayika kuchokera kubwereketsa wamba.

Momwemonso, chiwongola dzanja chotalikirapo chimabweretsa chiyani Forbes' Panos Mourdoukoutas amatcha "pent-down" kufuna. Kuti timvetsetse tanthauzo la mawuwa, tiyenera kukumbukira kuti mfundo yonse ya chiwongola dzanja chochepa ndikulimbikitsa anthu kuti agule zinthu zazikulu zamatikiti lero, m'malo mosiya zogula zomwe zanenedwa mawa pomwe akuyembekeza kuti chiwongola dzanja chibwererenso. Komabe, pamene chiwongoladzanja chochepa chikugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa nthawi yochuluka, chikhoza kuchititsa kuti pakhale vuto lachuma-chofuna "chochepa" - pamene aliyense wabweza kale ngongole yake kuti agule zinthu zodula zomwe akufuna kugula, kusiya ogulitsa kudabwa kuti adzagulitsa ndani mtsogolomo. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, chiwongola dzanja chotalikirapo pamapeto pake chimaba zogulitsa m'tsogolo, zomwe zitha kubweretsa chuma m'malo otsika.

Zodabwitsa za kusintha kwachitatu kwa mafakitale uku kuyenera kukugundani tsopano. Popanga chilichonse kukhala chochuluka, kupanga mtengo wamoyo kukhala wokwera mtengo kwa anthu ambiri, lonjezo ili laukadaulo, zonsezi zingatifikitsenso ku chiwonongeko chathu chachuma.

Inde, ndikuchita mopambanitsa. Pali zinthu zambiri zomwe zingakhudze chuma chathu chamtsogolo mwanjira zabwino komanso zoyipa. Mitu ingapo yotsatira ya mpambo uno idzamveketsa bwino zimenezi.

(Kwa owerenga ena, pakhoza kukhala chisokonezo ngati tikulowa gawo lachitatu kapena lachinayi la kusintha kwa mafakitale. Chisokonezochi chilipo chifukwa cha kutchuka kwaposachedwa kwa mawu oti 'fourth industrial revolution' pa msonkhano wa World Economic Forum wa 2016. Komabe, pali pali otsutsa ambiri omwe amatsutsana ndi malingaliro a WEF pakupanga mawuwa, ndipo Quantumrun ndi ena mwa iwo.