Ukuqalisa kwe-AI 'okunamandla' kuyajabulisa i-silicon valley elite - Kodwa ingabe konke lokhu kuyi-hype?

I-Artificial Intelligence startup, Vicarious, ithole ukunakwa okuningi muva nje, futhi akucaci ngokuphelele ukuthi kungani. Izikhulu eziningi zaseSilicon Valley bezivula ama-pocketbook azo futhi zikhipha imali enkulu ukuze zisekele ucwaningo lwenkampani. Iwebhusayithi yabo ibukisa ngokuthutheleka kwezimali kwakamuva okuvela kwabaqavile njengo-CEO we-Amazon uJeff Bezos, umsunguli we-Yahoo uJerry Yang, umsunguli we-Skype uJanus Friis, umsunguli we-Facebook u-Mark Zuckerberg kanye... u-Ashton Kutcher. Akwaziwa ngempela ukuthi yonke le mali ishonaphi. I-AI iyindawo eyimfihlo kakhulu futhi evikelayo yokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe muva nje, kodwa impikiswano yomphakathi mayelana nokufika nokusetshenziswa kwe-AI okulindeleke kakhulu emhlabeni wangempela ibilokhu ithule.I-Vicarious ibilokhu iyihhashi elimnyama kancane endaweni yezobuchwepheshe.

Yize kube nokuningi ukukhuluma ngale nkampani, ikakhulukazi njengoba amakhompyutha abo aqhekekile “CAPTCHA” ngekwindla edlule, bakwazile ukuhlala bengumdlali ongaqondakali futhi ongaqondakali. Isibonelo, abawakhiphi amakheli abo ngenxa yokwesaba ubunhloli bezinkampani, futhi nokuvakashela iwebhusayithi yabo kuzokushiya udidekile ngalokho abakwenzayo ngempela. Konke lokhu ukudlala kanzima ukukuthola kusafake abatshalizimali ukuthi bafole. Iphrojekthi enkulu ye-Vicarious kube ukwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi ye-neural ekwazi ukuphindaphinda ingxenye yobuchopho bomuntu elawula ukubona, ukunyakaza komzimba kanye nolimi.

Umsunguli osebenzisana naye uScott Phoenix uthe inkampani izama “ukwakha ikhompuyutha ecabanga okomuntu, ngaphandle kokuthi kungadingeki ukuthi idle noma ilale.” Ukugxila kuka-Vicarious kuze kube manje bekusekuqashelweni kwezinto ezibonakalayo: okokuqala ngezithombe, bese kuba ngamavidiyo, bese kuba ngezinye izici zobuhlakani nokufunda komuntu. Umsunguli osebenzisana naye u-Dileep George, phambilini owayengumcwaningi oholayo e-Numenta, ubelokhu egcizelela ukuhlaziya kokucutshungulwa kwedatha yombono emsebenzini wenkampani. Uhlelo luwukugcina umshini ongakwazi ukufunda "ukucabanga" ngochungechunge lwama-algorithms asebenzayo futhi angagadiwe. Ngokwemvelo, lokhu kwenza abantu bakhathazeke kakhulu.

Sekuyiminyaka ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-AI ibe yingxenye yempilo yangempela idonse ngokushesha izithenjwa zaseHollywood. Phezu kokwesaba mayelana nemisebenzi yabantu elahlekelwa amarobhothi, abantu bakhathazeke ngokweqiniso ukuthi ngeke kuthathe isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuba sizithole sisesimweni esingafani nalesi sethulwe ku-Matrix. Umsunguli we-Tesla Motors kanye ne-PayPal u-Elon Musk, naye ongumtshalizimali, uzwakalise ukukhathazeka nge-AI engxoxweni yakamuva ye-CNBC.

“Ngithanda ukuvele ngibheke ukuthi kwenzekani ngobuhlakani bokwenziwa,” kusho uMusk. “Ngicabanga ukuthi kungenzeka kube nomphumela oyingozi lapho. Kube namamuvi mayelana nalokhu, uyazi, njenge-Terminator. Kunemiphumela ethusayo. Futhi kufanele sizame ukwenza isiqiniseko sokuthi imiphumela mihle, hhayi mibi.”

UStephen Hawking ufake amasenti akhe amabili, empeleni eqinisekisa ukwesaba kwethu ukuthi kufanele sesabe. Imibono yakhe yakamuva ku The Independent kuholele esiphithiphithini semithombo yezindaba, kwaqubula izihloko zezindaba ezinjengethi “Stephen Hawking is Terrified of Artificial Intelligence,” neka-MSNBC ethi “Artificial Intelligence Could End Mankind” kaHuffington Post! Ukuphawula kuka-Hawking kwakungeyona neze i-apocalytical, elingana nesixwayiso esiphusile: “Impumelelo ekudaleni i-AI kungaba isenzakalo esikhulu kunazo zonke emlandweni wesintu.

Ngeshwa, kungase kube okokugcina, ngaphandle uma sifunda ukugwema ubungozi. Umthelela wesikhathi eside we-AI uncike ekutheni ingalawuleka nhlobo. ” Lo mbuzo "wokulawula" ukhiphe izishoshovu eziningi zamalungelo amarobhothi emsebenzini wezinkuni, zikhuthaza inkululeko yamarobhothi, zithi ukuzama "ukulawula" lezi zidalwa ezicabangayo kuzoba nesihluku futhi kufinyelele uhlobo lobugqila, futhi kufanele sikuvumele. amarobhothi akhululeke futhi aphile izimpilo zawo ngokugcwele (Yebo, lezi zishoshovu zikhona.)

Izimo eziningi ezixegayo zidinga ukusukunyelwa ngaphambi kokuthi abantu bathatheke. Okokuqala, i-Vicarious ayidali iligi yamarobhothi azoba nemizwa, imicabango kanye nobuntu noma isifiso sokuvukela abantu ababenze futhi bathathe umhlaba. Abawaqondi kahle amahlaya. Kuze kube manje sekucishe kungenzeki ukufundisa amakhompyutha noma yini efana nengqondo yasemgwaqweni, “ukuba nenjongo” komuntu kanye nobuqili bomuntu.

Isibonelo, iphrojekthi evela eStanford ebizwa ngokuthi “Ukujula,” okuhloselwe ukuhumusha ukubuyekezwa kwamamuvi futhi kunikeze amafilimu ukubuyekezwa kokushaphu noma kwezithupha, akakwazanga nhlobo ukufunda ukubhuqa noma ukubhuqa. Ekugcineni, i-Vicarious ayikhulumi ngokulingiswa kokuhlangenwe nakho komuntu. Isitatimende esigcwele kabanzi sokuthi amakhompyutha kaVicarious "azocabanga" njengabantu abacacile. Kudingeka siqhamuke nelinye igama elithi “cabanga” kulo mongo. Sikhuluma ngamakhompyutha angafunda ngokuqashelwa – okungenani okwamanje.

Ngakho kusho ukuthini lokhu? Izinhlobo zentuthuko esidlulela kuzo ngokwangempela zinezici ezingokoqobo nezisebenzayo ezifana nokubona ubuso, izimoto ezizishayelayo, ukuxilonga ngokwezempilo, ukuhumushwa kombhalo (singasebenzisa okuthile okungcono kune-Google translate) kanye nokuhlanganisa ubuchwepheshe. Into ewubuwula ngakho konke lokhu akukho okusha. I-Tech guru kanye noSihlalo we-Artificial General Intelligence Society, uDkt. Ben Goertzel uveza ibhulogi yakhe, “Uma ukhethe ezinye izinkinga ezinjengokuba isithunywa sebhayisikili ku-New York Street egcwele abantu, ukubhala isihloko sephephandaba mayelana nesimo esisha, ukufunda ulimi olusha olusekelwe kulokho okwenzeka emhlabeni wangempela, noma ukuhlonza izenzakalo ezibaluleke kakhulu zomuntu phakathi kwazo zonke ezinye izinkinga. ukuxhumana phakathi kwabantu egumbini elikhulu eliminyene, khona-ke uzothola ukuthi izindlela zanamuhla zezibalo [Zokufunda Ngomshini] azisizi kangako.”

Kukhona nje izinto ezithile imishini engakaqondi, nezinye izinto ezingakwazi ukuthwebula nge-algorithm. Sibona uhlobo lwe-snowball olugingqikayo oselufakazelwe kakhulu, kuze kube manje, ukuthi luthambile kakhulu. Kodwa i-hype ngokwayo ingaba yingozi. NjengoMqondisi we-Facebook we-AI Research kanye noMqondisi Osungula we-NYU Center for Data Science, u-Yann LeCun uthumele esidlangalaleni ku- ikhasi lakhe le-Google+: “I-Hype iyingozi ku-AI. UHype ubulale i-AI izikhathi ezine kule minyaka engamashumi amahlanu edlule. I-AI hype kumele imiswe.”

Ngenkathi u-Vicarious ephula i-CAPTCHA ekwindla edlule, u-LeCun wayenokungabaza kwabezindaba, eveza amaqiniso ambalwa abaluleke kakhulu: “1. Ukwephula ama-CAPTCHA akuwona neze umsebenzi othokozisayo, ngaphandle uma ungugaxekile; 2. Kulula ukufuna impumelelo kudathasethi oyiphekile ngokwakho.” Uqhubekile nokweluleka izintatheli zobuchwepheshe, "Sicela, ningakholwa izimangalo ezingacacile eziqalwa yi-AI ngaphandle uma ziveza imiphumela yobuciko kumabhentshimakhi amukelwa kabanzi," futhi uthi qaphela i-jargon esezingeni eliphakeme noma engacacile njengokuthi "isoftware yokufunda ngomshini esekelwe izimiso zekhompyutha zobuchopho bomuntu,” noma “inethiwekhi ye-cortical recursive.”

Ngamazinga e-LeCun, into kanye nokubonwa kwesithombe kuyisinyathelo esihlaba umxhwele kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwe-AI. Unokholo olwengeziwe emsebenzini wamaqembu afana ne-Deep Mind, abanomlando omuhle ekushicilelweni okuhlonishwayo nasekuthuthukisweni kobuchwepheshe, kanye nethimba elihle kakhulu lososayensi nonjiniyela abasebenzela bona. "Mhlawumbe i-Google ikhokhele i-Deep Mind," kusho u-LeCun, "kodwa bathola inqwaba yabantu abahlakaniphile ngemali. Nakuba okunye okwenziwa yi-Deep Mind kuyimfihlo, bayawashicilela amaphepha ezingqungqutheleni ezinkulu." Umbono ka-LeCun ngo-Vicarious uhluke kakhulu.” Uthi: “I-Vicarious yonke intuthu nezibuko,” abantu abanawo umlando (noma uma benawo, kuwumlando wokuhleba nokungalethi impahla).

Abakaze benze iminikelo ku-AI, ukufunda ngomshini noma umbono wekhompyutha. Kunolwazi oluyiziro mayelana nezindlela nama-algorithms abawasebenzisayo. Futhi awukho umphumela kumadathasethi ajwayelekile angasiza umphakathi ukuthi uhlole ikhwalithi yezindlela zawo. Konke kungama-hype. Kunenqwaba ye-AI/ukuqala kokufunda okujulile okwenza izinto ezithokozisayo (ikakhulukazi ukusetshenziswa kwezindlela ezisanda kuthuthukiswa ezifundweni). Kuyangixaka ukuthi i-Vicarious idonsa ukunaka okuningi (kanye nemali) ngaphandle kwezicelo ezingenabufakazi ezingenabufakazi.”

Mhlawumbe yinkumbulo yeminyakazo yezomoya mbumbulu eyenza osaziwayo bangene. Kwenza yonke into ibonakale iyi-hokey encane noma okungenani iyinhle ngokwengxenye. Ngisho ukuthi, ungakuthatha ngokungathi sína kangakanani ukuhlinzwa okubandakanya u-Ashton Kutcher kanye nezinkomba ze-Terminator ezingaba yisigidi? Esikhathini esedlule, ukusakazwa okuningi kwemithombo yezindaba bekunomdlandla omkhulu, abezindaba mhlawumbe bejabule ngokweqile ukusebenzisa amagama anjengokuthi "i-biologically inspired processor" kanye "quantum computation."

Kepha kulokhu, umshini we-hype umanqikanqika ukushintshela egiyeni. Njengoba uGary Marcus esho kamuva nje The New Yorker, eziningi zalezi zindaba "zididekile kakhulu," empeleni ziyehluleka ukukhipha noma yini entsha nolwazi olusha olumayelana nobuchwepheshe esesivele sinabo nesibusebenzisayo. Futhi lezi zinto beziqhubeka amashumi eminyaka. Vele uhlole I-Perceptron futhi ungathola umbono wokuthi sigqwalile kangakanani lesi sitimela sobuchwepheshe. Sekushiwo lokho, abantu abacebile bagxumela isitimela semali futhi akubonakali sengathi sizoma maduze.