Hydropower and drought: Obstacles to the clean energy transition

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• August 5, 2022

Insight summary

Climate change is reducing the effectiveness of hydroelectric dams, leading to a decline in their energy output. This decrease in hydropower is pushing governments and industries to consider alternative energy sources, like solar and wind power, and to reconsider their investment strategies. These changes are sparking discussions about energy conservation, the cost of living, and the future of national energy policies.

Hydropower and drought context

As the hydroelectric dam industry tries to strengthen its position as a climate change-friendly energy solution, an increasing body of evidence shows that climate change is undermining the ability of hydro dams to produce energy. This challenge is being faced globally, but this report will focus on the US experience.

The drought affecting the western US has reduced the region's capacity to create hydroelectric energy because of the reduced amount of water flowing through hydroelectric power facilities, based on 2022 media reports by the Associated Press. According to a recent Energy Information Administration assessment, hydropower output fell by about 14 percent in 2021 from 2020's levels due to severe drought in the region.

For example, when Oroville Lake's water levels became dangerously low, California shut down the Hyatt Power Plant in August 2021. Likewise, Lake Powell, a vast reservoir on the Utah-Arizona border, has suffered from a drop in water level. According to Inside Climate News, the lake's water levels were so low in October 2021 that the US Bureau of Reclamation forecasted that the lake may no longer have enough water to generate power by 2023 if drought conditions persisted. If Lake Powell's Glen Canyon Dam were to be lost, utility companies would have to find new ways to supply energy to the 5.8 million consumers that Lake Powell and other linked dams serve.

Since 2020, hydropower availability in California has declined by 38 percent, with declining hydropower supplemented by increased gas power output. Hydropower storage has fallen by 12 percent in the pacific northwest over the same period, with coal power generation expected to replace lost hydropower in the short term. 

Disruptive impact

Hydropower scarcity may prompt state and regional power authorities to temporarily rely on fossil fuels, potentially delaying the progress towards climate change goals. Such a shift risks escalating commodity prices, contributing to a global increase in the cost of living. The urgency to bridge energy supply gaps might prioritize fossil fuel use over long-term sustainable solutions, highlighting a critical juncture in energy policy decision-making.

The financial implications of investing in hydropower infrastructure are becoming increasingly significant, especially as climate change impacts its reliability. Governments may view the substantial capital required for hydropower projects as a less favorable investment compared to more immediate energy solutions like fossil fuels, nuclear power, or the expansion of solar and wind energy infrastructures. This reallocation of resources could lead to job creation in alternative energy sectors, particularly benefiting communities near large-scale construction projects. However, this shift might also signify a strategic move away from hydropower, impacting those employed in this sector and altering regional economic landscapes.

In response to these challenges, governments may explore innovative solutions like cloud-seeding technologies to enhance the performance of existing hydroelectric facilities. By artificially inducing rainfall, cloud seeding could alleviate drought conditions that hamper hydropower production. However, this approach introduces new environmental and ethical considerations, as manipulating weather patterns can have unforeseen ecological impacts. 

Implications of climate change threatening the viability of hydroelectric dams

Wider implications of hydropower becoming unviable due to persistent droughts may include:

• Governments restricting funds for new hydroelectric plants, leading to a shift in national energy strategies towards alternative renewable sources.
• Solar and wind energy projects gaining more financial support from public and private sectors, driving technological advancements and cost reductions in these fields.
• Communities near hydro dams facing energy rationing, fostering a heightened awareness of energy conservation and efficiency measures among residents.
• The visibility of empty lakes and inactive hydro dams spurring public demand for more aggressive environmental policies and actions.
• Reduced hydroelectric production prompting energy companies to innovate in energy storage and grid management, ensuring stability despite fluctuating renewable sources.
• A potential rise in energy costs due to the transition from established hydroelectric power to other renewables, impacting household budgets and business operating expenses.
• Increased public and political debates over energy priorities and climate commitments, influencing future elections and shaping national and international environmental agendas.

Questions to consider

• Can humanity develop ways to counter the effects of drought or produce rainfall? 
• Do you believe hydroelectric dams may become a defunct form of energy production in the future?