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Usuku ngemoto yakho ezishayelayo: Ikusasa Lezokuthutha P1

ISIKWELETU SOMTHETHO: Quantumrun

Usuku ngemoto yakho ezishayelayo: Ikusasa Lezokuthutha P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
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Unyaka ngu-2033. Yintambama yekwindla eshisa ngendlela engafanele, okungenani yilokho okwamenyezelwa ikhompuyutha yendiza ngaphambi kokuhlanganisa izinga lokushisa eliqondile elingu-32 degrees Celsius. Amadigri ambalwa nje okushisa kune-New York, kodwa unovalo kakhulu ukuba ungakhathazeki. Izinzipho zakho ziqala ukuluma ezibanjeni zakho zezihlalo.

Indiza yakho ye-Porter ibiqala ukwehla iye esikhumulweni sezindiza sase-Toronto's Island, kodwa selokhu yashintsha abashayeli bezindiza abangabantu nge-autopilot egcwele, iphuzu nephoyinti, awuzange uzizwe ulula ngokuphelele ngesikhathi sokufika kwalezi zindiza zebhizinisi zanyanga zonke.

Indiza ithinta phansi kahle futhi ngaphandle kwesigameko, njengenjwayelo. Ucosha imithwalo yakho endaweni yesicelo sempahla yesikhumulo sezindiza, ugibele uphinde uphume esikebheni esizihambelayo se-Porter ukuze uwele iLake Ontario, bese wehla etheminali yomgwaqo u-Porter's Bathurst e-Toronto ngokufanelekile. Ngenkathi usendleleni eya lapho uphuma khona, umsizi wakho we-AI usevele uyalile imoto ukuthi ikulande ngohlelo lokusebenza lwe-Google lokuhamba nge-rideshare.

Iwashi lakho elihlakaniphile lidlidliza emizuzwini emibili nje ngemva kokufinyelela endaweni yokuthatha abagibeli engaphandle. Yilapho uyibona khona: iFord Lincoln yasebukhosini eluhlaza ezishayela yona yehla ngomgwaqo ongenela. Ima phambi kwalapho omi khona, ikwemukele ngegama, bese ivula umnyango wabagibeli ongemuva. Uma isingaphakathi, imoto iqala ukushayela ibheke enyakatho ngaseLake Shore Boulevard emzileni onqunywe kusengaphambili okuxoxiswene ngawo phakathi kwayo nohlelo lwakho lokusebenza lwe-rideshare.

Kunjalo, wena spurged ngokuphelele. Phakathi nalokhu kwehla komnotho kwakamuva, uhambo lwebhizinisi lungelinye lamathuba ambalwa asele lapho inkampani ikuvumela ukuthi ukhokhele imodeli yemoto ebiza kakhulu enemilenze eyengeziwe negumbi lemithwalo. Uphinde ukhethe ukumelana nenketho eshibhile ye-carpooling, ngokusemthethweni ngenxa yezizathu zokuphepha, ngokungekho emthethweni ngoba ukuzonda ukushayela ezimotweni ezinabantu ongabazi. Uze wakhetha ukugibela okungenazikhangiso.

Ukuya ehhovisi lakho le-Bay Street kuzothatha kuphela imizuzu eyishumi nambili, ngokusekelwe kumephu ye-Google esibukweni esiphambi kwakho. Uhlezi, uphumule, futhi ukhombe amehlo akho ngefasitela, ugqolozele zonke izimoto ezingashayeli namaloli akuzungezile.

Ngempela kwakungekudala kangako, uyakhumbula. Lezi zinto zibe semthethweni kuphela kulo lonke elase-Canada ngonyaka owathweswa ngawo iziqu—2026. Ekuqaleni, babembalwa emgwaqeni; zazimba eqolo nje kumuntu ovamile. Eminyakeni embalwa kamuva, ubambiswano lwe-Uber-Apple ekugcineni lwabona i-Uber ishintsha iningi labashayeli bayo ngezimoto ezakhiwe i-Apple, zikagesi, ezizimele. I-Google ibambisene ne-GM ukuze iqale isevisi yayo yokwabelana ngezimoto. Abakhiqizi bezimoto abasele balandela lesi sibonelo, bagcwala amadolobha amakhulu ngamatekisi azimele.

Ukuncintisana kwashuba kakhulu, nezindleko zokuhamba zehla kakhulu, kangangokuthi ukuba nemoto emadolobheni amaningi namadolobhana akusenangqondo ngaphandle uma ucebe, wawufuna ukuthatha uhambo lomgwaqo oluyisidala, noma ubuthanda ukushayela. imanuwali. Ayikho yalezo zinketho esebenza ngempela esizukulwaneni sakho. Lokho kusho, wonke umuntu wamukele isiphetho somshayeli oqokiwe.

Imoto ima endaweni ephithizelayo yaseBay naseWellington, enkabeni yesifunda sezimali. Uhlelo lwakho lokusebenza lokugibela lukhokhisa ngokuzenzakalela i-akhawunti yakho yebhizinisi uma uphuma emotweni yesibili. Ngokusekelwe kuma-imeyili agcwele ifoni yakho, kubukeka sengathi kuzoba usuku olude ekuhwebeni kwe-bitcoin. Ohlangothini olukhanyayo, uma uhlala udlule ihora lesi-7 kusihlwa, inkampani izomboza uhambo lwakho lokuya ekhaya, izinketho zangokwezifiso ze-slurgy zifakiwe, kunjalo.

Kungani izimoto ezizishayelayo zibalulekile

Iningi labadlali ababalulekile emkhakheni wezimoto ezizimele (AVs) babikezela ukuthi ama-AV okuqala azotholakala ngokwezentengiso ngo-2020, azoba yindawo evamile ngo-2030, futhi azongena esikhundleni sezimoto eziningi ezijwayelekile ngo-2040-2045.

Leli kusasa alikude kangako, kodwa imibuzo isasele: Ingabe lawa ma-AV azobiza kakhulu kunezimoto ezivamile? Yebo. Ngabe bazobe bengekho emthethweni ukusebenza ezindaweni ezinkulu zezwe lakini lapho beqala ukusebenza? Yebo. Ngabe abantu abaningi bazosaba ukusebenzisa umgwaqo nalezi zimoto ekuqaleni? Yebo. Ingabe bazokwenza umsebenzi ofanayo nowomshayeli onolwazi? Yebo.

Ngakho-ke ngaphandle kwesici esipholile se-tech, kungani izimoto ezizishayelayo zithola i-hype engaka? Indlela eqondile yokuphendula lokhu ukuze ubhale izinzuzo ezihloliwe zezimoto ezizishayelayo, lezo ezifanele kakhulu kumshayeli ojwayelekile:

Okokuqala, bayosindisa ukuphila. Unyaka ngamunye, kubhaliswa izigidi eziyisithupha zokuphahlazeka kwezimoto e-US, ngokwesilinganiso, Imiphumela bangaphezu kuka-30,000 abafayo. Phindaphinda lelo nani emhlabeni wonke, ikakhulukazi emazweni asathuthuka lapho ukuqeqeshwa kwabashayeli kanye nokugcinwa kwamaphoyisa emigwaqeni kungaqini kangako. Eqinisweni, isilinganiso sango-2013 sabika ukufa kwabantu abayizigidi ezingu-1.4 emhlabeni wonke ngenxa yezingozi zezimoto.

Ezimweni eziningi, kwakunephutha lomuntu: umuntu ngamunye wayecindezelekile, enesithukuthezi, esozela, ephazamisekile, edakiwe, njll. Amarobhothi, okwamanje, ngeke ahlupheke ngalezi zinkinga; bahlale beqaphile, bahlale behluzekile, banombono ophelele 360, futhi bayazi nemithetho yomgwaqo ngokuphelele. Eqinisweni, i-Google isivele ihlole lezi zimoto ngaphezu kwamamayela angu-100,000 ngezingozi ezingu-11 kuphela—zonke zibangelwa abashayeli abangabantu, hhayi ngaphansi.

Okulandelayo, uma uke waqeda omunye umuntu, uzokwazi ukuthi isikhathi sokusabela komuntu singahamba kancane kangakanani. Yingakho abashayeli abanomthwalo wemfanelo begcina ibanga elifanelekile phakathi kwabo nemoto engaphambi kwabo ngenkathi beshayela. Inkinga ukuthi inani elengeziwe lesikhala esinomthwalo wemfanelo linomthelela esilinganisweni esiningi sokuminyana emgwaqeni (ithrafikhi) esibhekana naso nsuku zonke. Izimoto ezizishayelayo zizokwazi ukuxhumana zodwa emgwaqeni futhi zihlanganyele ukuze zishayele zisondelane, kususwe ithuba lama-fender bender. Lokhu ngeke nje kulingane izimoto eziningi emgwaqeni futhi kuthuthukise izikhathi zokuhamba ezimaphakathi, kodwa kuzophinde kuthuthukise nokusebenza kwemoto yakho, ngaleyo ndlela yonge kugesi.

Uma sikhuluma ngophethiloli, umuntu ovamile akakwazi ukusebenzisa owakhe ngendlela efanele. Sisheshisa lapho singadingi. Silima amabhuleki kancane kakhulu lapho singadingi. Lokhu sikwenza kaningi kangangokuthi asikubhalisi ngisho emiqondweni yethu. Kodwa liyabhalisa, kokubili ohambweni lwethu olwandisiwe lokuya egalaji likaphethiloli kanye nomakhenikha wezimoto. Amarobhothi azokwazi ukulawula kangcono igesi namabhuleki ukuze asihambise kalula, anciphise ukusetshenziswa kwegesi ngamaphesenti angu-15, futhi anciphise ukucindezeleka nokuguga kwezingxenye zemoto—kanye nendawo esihlala kuyo.

Okokugcina, nakuba abanye benu bengase bajabulele isikhathi sokushayela imoto yakho ohambweni lomgwaqo olunelanga ngempelasonto, abantu ababi kakhulu kuphela abajabulela uhambo lwabo lokuya emsebenzini oluthatha ihora lonke. Cabanga ngosuku lapho esikhundleni sokuthi ugcine amehlo akho emgwaqeni, ungahamba ngomkhumbi uye emsebenzini ngenkathi ufunda incwadi, ulalele umculo, ubheka ama-imeyili, upheqa i-inthanethi, ukhuluma nabathandekayo, njll.

UmMelika ovamile uchitha amahora angaba ngu-200 ngonyaka (cishe imizuzu engu-45 ngosuku) eshayela imoto yakhe. Uma ucabanga ukuthi isikhathi sakho sibiza uhhafu womholo omncane, yithi amadola amahlanu, lokho kungafinyelela ku-$325 billion ngesikhathi esilahlekile, esingakhiqizi e-US yonkana (kuthatha cishe izigidi ezingu-325 zabantu base-US 2015). Phindaphinda lokho konga isikhathi emhlabeni wonke futhi singabona izigidigidi zamadola zikhululwa ukuze kutholakale izinzuzo ezengeziwe.

Kunjalo, njengazo zonke izinto, kukhona okungekuhle ezimotweni ezizishayelayo. Kwenzekani uma ikhompuyutha yemoto yakho iphahlazeka? Ingabe ukwenza ukushayela kube lula kukhuthaze abantu ukuthi bashayele kakhulu, ngaleyo ndlela kwandise isiminyaminya nokungcola? Ingabe imoto yakho ingagetshengwa ukuze kwebe ulwazi lwakho lomuntu siqu noma mhlawumbe ikuthumbe ukude ngenkathi usendleleni? Ngokunjalo, ingabe lezi zimoto zingase zisetshenziswe amaphekula ukuletha ibhomu ukude endaweni okuqondiswe kuyo?

Le mibuzo iwukucatshangelwa futhi izehlakalo zayo zingaba yivelakancane kunejwayelekile. Ngocwaningo olwanele, eziningi zalezi zingozi zingakhiwa ngama-AV ngesofthiwe eqinile nezivikelo zobuchwepheshe. Sesikushilo lokho, esinye sezivimbamgwaqo ezinkulu ekwamukelweni kwalezi zimoto ezizimele kuzoba yizindleko zazo.

Izongibiza malini enye yalezi zimoto ezizishayelayo?

Izindleko zezimoto ezizishayelayo zizoncika kubuchwepheshe obungena ekwakhiweni kwazo kokugcina. Ngenhlanhla, ubuchwepheshe obuningi ezizosetshenziswa yilezi zimoto sebuvele buba yizinga ezimotweni eziningi ezintsha, njengalezi: ukuvimbela ukukhukhuleka emzileni, ukuzipaka, ukulawulwa kohambo oluguquguqukayo, ukubhuleka kwezokuphepha, izexwayiso ze-blind spot, futhi maduze. imoto ukuya emotweni (V2V) ukuxhumana, okudlulisa ulwazi lokuphepha phakathi kwezimoto ukuxwayisa abashayeli ngezingozi eziseduze. Izimoto ezizishayelayo zizokwakhela phezu kwalezi zici zokuphepha zesimanje ukuze kuncishiswe izindleko zazo.

Nokho, ngenothi elingenathemba kangako, ubuchwepheshe okwabikezelwa ukuthi buzopakishwa ngaphakathi ezimotweni ezizishayelayo buhlanganisa izinhlobonhlobo ezinkulu zezinzwa (i-infrared, i-radar, i-lidar, i-ultrasonic, i-laser ne-optical) ukuze ubone kunoma yisiphi isimo sokushayela (imvula, iqhwa, izinkanyamba, isihogo somlilo, njll.), i-wifi eqinile nesistimu ye-GPS, izilawuli zemishini ezintsha zokushayela imoto, kanye nekhompuyutha eyi-super-super esiqwini ukuze ilawule yonke imininingwane lezi zimoto okuzodingeka ziyibambe ngenkathi zishayela.

Uma konke lokhu kuzwakala kubiza, yingoba kunjalo. Noma ubuchwepheshe bubiza kancane unyaka nonyaka, bonke lobu buchwepheshe bungamela intengo yokuqala ephakathi kuka-$20-50,000 ngemoto ngayinye (ekugcineni yehle ifinyelele cishe ku-$3,000 njengoba izinga lokukhiqiza liyakhula). Ngakho-ke lokhu kubuza umbuzo, ngaphandle kwama-spoiled trust brats, ubani ozothenga lezi zimoto ezizishayelayo? Impendulo emangazayo neguquguqukayo yalo mbuzo ihlanganiswe ku ingxenye yesibili yochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lezokuthutha.

PS izimoto zikagesi

Inothi eseceleni elisheshayo: Ngaphandle kwama-AV, izimoto kagesi (EVs) kuzoba umkhuba wesibili omkhulu oguqula imboni yezokuthutha. Umthelela wabo uzoba mkhulu, ikakhulukazi uma kuhlanganiswa nobuchwepheshe be-AV, futhi sincoma nakanjani ukufunda mayelana nama-EV ukuze uthole ukuqonda okugcwele kwalolu chungechunge. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yomthelela ama-EV azoba nawo emakethe yamandla, sinqume ukukhuluma ngama-EV kweyethu Ikusasa lochungechunge lwamandla Esikhundleni.