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Ukuhamba komphakathi kuyaphazamiseka ngenkathi izindiza, izitimela zingenamshayeli: Ikusasa Lezokuthutha P3

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

Msombuluko, 09/14/2020 - 08:43

Izimoto ezizishayelayo akuyona yodwa indlela esizobe sihamba ngayo ngokuzayo. Kuzophinde kube nezinguquko kwezokuthutha umphakathi emhlabeni, phezu kolwandle nangaphezulu kwamafu.

Kodwa ngokungafani nalokho okufunde ochungechungeni lwethu lwekusasa Lezokuthutha, intuthuko esizoyibona kwezinye izindlela zokuhamba ezilandelayo ayigxili kubuchwepheshe bezimoto ezizihambelayo (AV). Ukuhlola lo mbono, ake siqale ngohlobo lwezokuthutha izakhamuzi zasedolobheni ezijwayelene kakhulu nazo: ezokuthutha zomphakathi.

Izinto zokuhamba zomphakathi zijoyina iqembu elingenamshayeli sekwephuzile

Ezokuthutha zomphakathi, kungaba amabhasi, izimoto zasemgwaqeni, amashuttle, imizila ehamba ngaphansi, nayo yonke into ephakathi, izobhekana nobungozi obukhona obuvela kumasevisi okwabelana ngamahhashi achazwe ku- ingxenye ezimbili yalolu chungechunge—futhi empeleni, akunzima ukubona ukuthi kungani.

Uma kwenzeka i-Uber noma i-Google iphumelela ukugcwalisa amadolobha ngemikhumbi emikhulu yamandla kagesi, ama-AV anikezela ngokugibela okuqondile ukuya endaweni eya kubantu ngamasenti ikhilomitha, kuzoba nzima ngezokuthutha zomphakathi ukuncintisana uma kubhekwa uhlelo lwemizila engaguquki olusebenza ngokujwayelekile. ku.

Eqinisweni, i-Uber okwamanje isebenzela insizakalo yebhasi entsha yokwabelana ngabagibeli lapho isebenzisa uchungechunge lwezitobhi ezaziwayo nezingalindelekile ukuze ilayishe abagibeli emizileni engajwayelekile yabantu abaya endaweni ethile. Isibonelo, ake ucabange u-oda isevisi yokwabelana ngamahhashi ukuze ikuyise enkundleni ye-baseball eseduze, kodwa njengoba ushayela, isevisi ikuthumelela isaphulelo samaphesenti angama-30-50 ozikhethela sona uma, endleleni, uthatha umgibeli wesibili oya endaweni efanayo. . Ngokusebenzisa lo mqondo ofanayo, unga-oda ibhasi lokugibela ukuze likulande, lapho wabelana ngezindleko zalolo hambo phakathi kwabantu abahlanu, 10, 20 noma ngaphezulu. Isevisi enjalo ngeke yehlise izindleko kumsebenzisi ojwayelekile kuphela, kodwa ukuthatha komuntu siqu nakho kuzothuthukisa isevisi yamakhasimende.

Ngenxa yalezi zinsizakalo, amakhomishana ezokuthutha zomphakathi emadolobheni amakhulu angase aqale ukubona ukwehla okukhulu kwemali engenayo yabagibeli phakathi kuka-2028-2034 (lapho izinsiza zokwabelana ngamahhashi zibikezelwa ukuthi zizohamba kahle ngokugcwele). Uma lokhu sekwenzekile, lezi zigungu ezilawula ezokuthutha zizosala nezinketho ezimbalwa.

Iningi lizozama ukucela uxhaso lukahulumeni olwengeziwe, kodwa lezi zicelo cishe zizowela ezindlebeni ezingezwa kohulumeni ababhekene nokwehliswa kwesabelomali sabo ngaleso sikhathi (bona Ikusasa Lomsebenzi uchungechunge ukuze ufunde ukuthi kungani). Futhi ngaphandle koxhaso olungeziwe lukahulumeni, okuwukuphela kwenketho esele ekuthuthweni komphakathi kuzoba ukunciphisa izinsiza nokusika imizila yamabhasi/yezimoto zomgwaqo ukuze uhlale untanta. Ngokudabukisayo, ukwehlisa isevisi kuzokwandisa kuphela isidingo sezinsizakalo zokwabelana ngamahhashi, ngaleyo ndlela kusheshise ukuzungeza okuya phansi okusanda kuchazwa.

Ukuze asinde, amakhomishana ezokuthutha zomphakathi kuzodingeka akhethe phakathi kwezimo ezimbili ezintsha zokusebenza:

Okokuqala, ambalwa emhlabeni, amakhomishini ezokuthutha zomphakathi anolwazi olunzulu kakhulu azokwethula eyawo isevisi yamabhasi angashayeli, agibela ibhasi, exhaswe nguhulumeni futhi ngaleyo ndlela akwazi ukuncintisana ngokuzenzela (mhlawumbe ahluleke) izinsiza zokwabelana ngamahhashi ezixhaswe ngasese. Nakuba insizakalo enjalo ingaba usizo lukahulumeni olukhulu futhi oludingekayo, lesi simo sizophinde sibe yivelakancane ngenxa yotshalomali olukhulu oludingekayo ukuze kuthengwe uxhaxha lwamabhasi angashayeli. Amathegi entengo abandakanyekayo angaba ezigidini, okwenza kube nzima ukudayiselwa abakhokhi bentela.

Okwesibili, futhi okungenzeka kakhulu, kuzoba ukuthi amakhomishana ezokuthutha zomphakathi azothengisa izimoto zawo zamabhasi ngokuphelele ezinsizeni zangasese zokwabelana ngamahhashi futhi angene endimeni yokulawula lapho eqondisa khona lezi zinsizakalo ezizimele, aqinisekise ukuthi asebenza ngendlela efanele futhi ephephile ukuze azuze umphakathi. Lokhu kudayiswa kuzokhulula izinsiza zezezimali ezinkulu ukuze kuvunyelwe amakhomishini ezokuthutha zomphakathi ukuthi agxilise amandla awo kumanethiwekhi awo ahamba ngaphansi komhlaba.

Uyabona, ngokungafani namabhasi, izinsiza zokwabelana ngabagibeli azisoze zadlula ezitimeleni ezingaphansi komhlaba uma kuziwa ekususeni ngokushesha nangempumelelo inani elikhulu labantu ukusuka kwenye ingxenye yedolobha ukuya kwenye. Izitimela ezihamba ngaphansi azenza kancane, zibhekana nezimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu, azinazo izehlakalo zethrafikhi ezingahleliwe, kuyilapho futhi kuyinketho evumelana kakhulu nemvelo ezimotweni (ngisho nezimoto zikagesi). Futhi uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi izitimela ezingaphansi kwezakhiwo ezidinga imali enkulu futhi zilawulwa kanjani, futhi zizohlala zikhona, kuwuhlobo lwezokuthutha okungenzeka ukuthi lubhekane nokuncintisana kwangasese.

Konke lokhu ngokuhlangene kusho ukuthi ngeminyaka yawo-2030, sizobona ikusasa lapho izinsiza zokwabelana ngamahhashi zibusa ezokuthutha zomphakathi ngaphezu komhlabathi, kuyilapho amakhomishana akhona ezinto zokuhamba zomphakathi aqhubeka nokubusa futhi andisa ezokuthutha zomphakathi ngaphansi komhlaba. Futhi kubantu abaningi abahlala emadolobheni esikhathini esizayo, cishe bazosebenzisa izindlela zombili phakathi nohambo lwabo lwansuku zonke.

UThomas Isitimela uba ngokoqobo

Ukukhuluma ngezitimela ezihamba ngaphansi ngokwemvelo kuholela esihlokweni sezitimela. Emashumini ambalwa eminyaka alandelayo, njengoba kuhlale kwenzeka, izitimela kancane kancane zizoshesha, zibe bushelelezi, futhi zikhululeke kakhudlwana. Amanethiwekhi amaningi ezitimela nawo azozenzakalela, alawulwe kude endaweni ethile, isakhiwo sokuphatha izitimela sikahulumeni. Kodwa nakuba izitimela zesabelomali nezimpahla ezithwala impahla zingase zilahlekelwe yibo bonke abasebenzi bazo, izitimela zikanokusho zizoqhubeka zithwele iqembu elincane labalindi.

Mayelana nokukhula, ukutshalwa kwezimali kumanethiwekhi ezitimela kuzohlala kukuncane emazweni amaningi athuthukile, ngaphandle kolayini besitimela abambalwa abasha abasetshenziselwa ukuthutha impahla. Iningi lomphakathi kulezi zizwe lincamela ukuhamba ngendiza futhi lokho kuthambekela kuzohlala kunjalo nangokuzayo. Kodwa-ke, emazweni asathuthuka, ikakhulukazi kulo lonke elase-Asia, e-Afrika, naseNingizimu Melika, imizila yezitimela emisha, ehlanganisa izwekazi lonke ihlelwa ukuthi ekupheleni kweminyaka yowezi-2020 izokwandisa kakhulu ukuhamba kwesifunda nokuhlanganiswa kwezomnotho.

Umtshali zimali omkhulu kula maphrojekthi kaloliwe kuzoba yiShayina. Njengoba itshale imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezintathu zamaRandi, ibheka ngenkuthalo ozakwethu bezohwebo ngeBhange Lotshalomali Lwengqalasizinda yase-Asia (AIIB) engaboleka imali ukuze ibuye ngokuqasha izinkampani zaseShayina ezakha ujantshi—phakathi kwezihamba phambili emhlabeni.

Imigqa ye-cruise nezikebhe

Izikebhe nezikebhe, njengezitimela, zizoshesha futhi ziphephe kancane kancane. Ezinye izinhlobo zezikebhe zizozenzakalela—ikakhulukazi lezo ezihilelekile kwezokuthutha namasosha—kodwa sezizonke, izikebhe eziningi zizohlala zinabantu futhi zihanjwa ngabantu, kungaba ngenxa yesiko noma ngenxa yokuthi izindleko zokuthuthukela emisebenzini yezandla ezizimele zizobe zingenamali.

Ngokufanayo, imikhumbi yokuhamba ngomkhumbi nayo izohlala inabantu abaningi. Ngenxa yokuqhubeka kwabo futhi ukuthandwa okukhulayo, imikhumbi ezohamba ngomkhumbi izokhula ibe mikhudlwana futhi ifune iqembu elikhulu ukuze liphathe futhi linikeze izivakashi zayo izivakashi. Nakuba ukuhamba ngomkhumbi okuzenzakalelayo kungase kunciphise izindleko zabasebenzi kancane, izinyunyana nomphakathi cishe bazofuna ukuba ukaputeni ahlale ekhona ukuze aqondise umkhumbi wakhe olwandle.

Izindiza ze-Drone zibusa phezulu kwezentengiselwano

Ukuhamba ngendiza sekuyindlela ehamba phambili yohambo lwamazwe ngamazwe kuningi lomphakathi phakathi nengxenye yekhulu edlule. Ngisho nasekhaya, abaningi bakhetha ukundiza besuka kwenye ingxenye yezwe labo baye kwenye.

Kunezindawo zokuvakasha eziningi kunangaphambili. Ukuthenga amathikithi kulula kunangaphambili. Izindleko zokuhamba ngendiza zisalokhu zincintisana (lokhu kuzoshintsha lapho amanani kawoyela ekhuphuka futhi). Kukhona izinsiza ezengeziwe. Ngokwezibalo kuphephe kakhudlwana ukundiza namuhla kunangaphambilini. Ngokwengxenye enkulu, namuhla kufanele kube yisikhathi esihle sokundiza.

Kodwa emashumini ambalwa eminyaka adlule, isivinini sezindiza zesimanje simile kumthengi ovamile. Ukuhamba phezu kwe-Atlantic noma i-Pacific, nanoma yikuphi ngaleyo ndaba, akukasheshi kakhulu amashumi eminyaka.

Alukho uzungu olukhulu ngemuva kwalokhu kuntuleka kwenqubekela phambili. Isizathu sesivinini esikhulu sezindiza zezentengiselwano sihlobene ne-physics namandla adonsela phansi ngaphezu kwanoma yini enye. Incazelo enhle nelula, ebhalwe ngu-Wired's Aatish Bhatia, ingafundwa lapha. Ingqikithi ihamba kanje:

Indiza iyandiza ngenxa yenhlanganisela yokudonsa nokuphakamisa. Indiza isebenzisa amandla kaphethiloli ukusunduza umoya kude nendiza ukuze inciphise ukudonsa futhi igweme ukwehla. Indiza iphinde isebenzise amandla kaphethiloli iphusha umoya phansi ngaphansi komzimba wayo ukuze idale i-lift futhi ihlale intanta.

Uma ufuna indiza ihambe ngokushesha, lokho kuzodala ukudonsa okuningi endizeni, okukuphoqa ukuthi usebenzise amandla kaphethiloli amaningi ukuze unqobe ukudonsa okwengeziwe. Eqinisweni, uma ufuna indiza indize ngokuphindwe kabili, udinga ukuphusha cishe ngokuphindwe kasishiyagalombili kunomthamo womoya endleleni. Kodwa uma uzama ukushayela indiza kancane kakhulu, kuzomele uchithe amandla kaphethiloli engeziwe ukuze uphoqe umoya ongezansi komzimba ukuze uqhubeke untanta.

Kungakho zonke izindiza zinesivinini esilungile sokundiza esingasheshi kakhulu noma esinensa kakhulu—indawo ye-goldilocks ezivumela ukuthi zindize kahle ngaphandle kokuqoqa imali enkulu kaphethiloli. Yingakho ungakwazi ukukhokhela ukundiza uzungeze umhlaba. Kodwa futhi yingakho uzophoqeleka ukuthi ubekezelele indiza yamahora angu-20 eceleni kwezingane ezimemezayo ukwenza kanjalo.

Okuwukuphela kwendlela yokunqoba le mikhawulo ukuthola izindlela ezintsha zokwengeza yehlisa kahle inani lokuhudula indiza idinga ukuphusha noma ikhuphule inani lokuphakanyiswa engalikhiqiza. Ngenhlanhla, kukhona amasu amasha angagcina enze lokho kanye.

Izindiza zikagesi. Uma ufunda yethu imicabango emafutheni ithu Ikusasa Lamandla uchungechunge, uzokwazi ukuthi intengo yegesi izoqala ukukhuphuka kwayo okuzinzile nokuyingozi ekugcineni kwawo-2010. Futhi njengoba kwenzeka ngo-2008, lapho amanani kawoyela enyuka afinyelela cishe ku-$150 umphongolo, izinkampani zezindiza zizophinde zibone intengo yegesi, okulandelwa ukuphahlazeka kwenani lamathikithi athengisiwe. Ukuze ugweme ukuqothuka, izindiza ezikhethiwe zitshala amadola ocwaningo kubuchwepheshe bendiza kagesi neyingxubevange.

I-Airbus Group ibilokhu izama izindiza ezisebenza ngogesi (isib. one futhi ezimbili), futhi banezinhlelo zokwakha indawo ehlala abantu abangu-90 ngo-2020. Isivimbamgwaqo esikhulu esiya ezindizeni zikagesi eziba yinsakavukela umchilo wesidwaba amabhethri, izindleko zawo, usayizi, umthamo wokugcina, nesikhathi sokushajwa kabusha. Ngenhlanhla, ngemizamo ka-Tesla, kanye nozakwabo waseShayina, i-BYD, ubuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko zamabhethri kufanele kuthuthuke kakhulu maphakathi nawo-2020, kugqugquzele ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu ezindizeni zikagesi neziyingxubevange. Okwamanje, amanani amanje okutshalwa kwezimali azobona izindiza ezinjalo zitholakala ngokwentengiso phakathi kuka-2028-2034.

Izinjini ezinkulu. Sesikushilo lokho, ukuhamba ngogesi akuzona kuphela izindaba zezindiza edolobheni—kukhona nokuhamba phambili. Sekudlule iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi kusukela i-Concorde yenza indiza yayo yokugcina phezu kwe-Atlantic; Manje, umholi we-Aerospace waseMelika u-Lockheed Martin, usebenza ku-N+2, injini eklanywe kabusha ye-Supersonic eyenzelwe izindiza zezentengiselwano ezingase, (I-DailyMail) "nciphisa isikhathi sokuhamba ukusuka eNew York ukuya e-Los Angeles ngesigamu-kusuka emahoreni amahlanu kuya emahoreni angu-2.5 nje."

Khonamanjalo, inkampani yezindiza yaseBrithani i-Reaction Engines Limited yakha uhlelo lwenjini, okuthiwa SABER, okungenzeka ngolunye usuku kundiza abantu abangu-300 noma kuphi emhlabeni ngamahora angaphansi kwamane.

I-Autopilot kuma-steroids. O yebo, futhi njengezimoto, izindiza zizogcina zizindiza ngokwazo. Eqinisweni, kakade bayakwenza. Abantu abaningi abaqapheli ukuthi izindiza zesimanje zezentengiselwano zisuka, zindiza, futhi zihlale zodwa amaphesenti angu-90 esikhathi. Iningi labashayeli bezindiza abasavamile ukuthinta induku.

Ngokungafani nezimoto, nokho, ukwesaba komphakathi ukuhamba kuzonciphisa ukwamukelwa kwezindiza zezindiza ezisebenza ngokuzenzakalelayo kuze kube ngo-2030. Kodwa-ke, uma i-inthanethi engenantambo kanye nezinhlelo zokuxhumana sezithuthuke kuze kufike ezingeni lapho abashayeli bezindiza bengakwazi ukundiza ngendlela ethembekile ngesikhathi sangempela, ukusuka emakhulwini amamayela kude (okufana nezindiza zesimanje zamasosha), khona-ke ukwamukelwa kwendiza ezenzakalelayo kuzoba iqiniso lebhizinisi lokonga izindleko. izindiza eziningi.

Izimoto ezihamba ngezinyawo

Kuke kwaba nesikhathi lapho ithimba leQuantumrun lachitha khona izimoto ezindizayo njengezinto eziqanjiwe ezibambelele ekusaseni lethu lezinganekwane zesayensi. Nokho, okusimangalisayo ukuthi izimoto ezindizayo ziseduze kakhulu namaqiniso kunalokho abaningi abangakukholelwa. Kungani? Ngenxa yokuthuthuka kwama-drones.

I-Drone tech ithuthuka ngesivinini esisheshayo sokusetshenziswa okuhlukahlukene okuvamile, ukuhweba, kanye nezempi. Kodwa-ke, lezi zimiso manje ezenza ama-drones abe nokwenzeka azisebenzi nje kuma-drones amancane wokuzilibazisa, zingasebenza futhi kuma-drones amakhulu ngokwanele ukuthutha abantu. Ngasohlangothini lwezohwebo, izinkampani eziningi (ikakhulukazi lawo axhaswe yi-Larry Page yakwa-Google) kunzima ukwenza izimoto ezindizayo ezentengiso zibe ngokoqobo, kanti i Inkampani yakwa-Israel yenza inguqulo yezempi lokho kuvele kuBlade Runner.

Izimoto ezindizayo zokuqala (ama-drones) zizovela ngo-2020, kodwa cishe zizothatha kuze kube ngu-2030 ngaphambi kokuba zibe yinto evamile esibhakabhakeni sethu.

'Ifu lezokuthutha' elizayo

Kuleli qophelo, sifunde ukuthi ziyini izimoto ezizishayelayo nokuthi zizokhula kanjani zibe yibhizinisi lesikhathi eside eligxile kubathengi. Sisanda kufunda nangekusasa lazo zonke ezinye izindlela esizohamba ngazo esikhathini esizayo. Okulandelayo ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lezokuthutha, sizofunda ukuthi ukuzenzekelayo kwezimoto kuzoba nomthelela omangalisayo kanjani ukuthi izinkampani ezimbonini ezahlukahlukene zizolenza kanjani ibhizinisi. Ukusikisela: Kuzosho ukuthi imikhiqizo nezinsizakalo ozithengayo eminyakeni eyishumi kusukela manje zingaba ishibhile kakhulu kunanamuhla!