Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Maulendo apagulu amapitilira ndege, masitima amapita opanda driver: Future of Transportation P3

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lolemba, 09/14/2020 - 08:43

Magalimoto odziyendetsa okha si njira yokhayo yomwe tidzayendere mtsogolo. Padzakhalanso kusintha kwa kayendetsedwe ka anthu pamtunda, panyanja, ndi pamwamba pa mitambo.

Koma mosiyana ndi zomwe mudawerengapo magawo awiri apitawa a Future of Transportation, kupita patsogolo komwe tiwona m'njira zina zoyendera sikunakhazikike paukadaulo wamagalimoto a autonomous (AV). Kuti tifufuze lingaliroli, tiyeni tiyambe ndi mtundu wa zoyendera anthu okhala m'mizinda omwe amazidziwa bwino kwambiri: zoyendera anthu onse.

Maulendo apagulu alowa nawo gulu lopanda dalaivala mochedwa

Zoyendera za anthu onse, kaya mabasi, magalimoto apamsewu, masitima apamtunda, masitima apansi panthaka, ndi chilichonse chapakati, zitha kukumana ndi chiwopsezo chochokera kumayendedwe ophatikizika omwe afotokozedwa mu gawo limodzi za mndandanda uno—ndipo kwenikweni, sizovuta kuwona chifukwa chake.

Ngati Uber kapena Google atakwanitsa kudzaza mizinda ndi zombo zazikulu zoyendetsedwa ndi magetsi, ma AV omwe amapereka maulendo opita kopita kwa anthu pa kilomita imodzi, zidzakhala zovuta kuti anthu azitha kupikisana potengera njira yokhazikika yomwe imagwira kale. pa.

M'malo mwake, Uber ikugwira ntchito yokonza mabasi atsopano pomwe imagwiritsa ntchito maimidwe angapo odziwika komanso osakonzekera kuti anyamule okwera m'misewu yosagwirizana ndi anthu omwe akupita kumalo enaake. Mwachitsanzo, taganizirani kuyitanitsa ntchito yogawana nawo kuti ikuyendetseni ku bwalo lamasewera la baseball lapafupi, koma pamene mukuyendetsa, ntchitoyo imakutumizirani kuchotsera kwa 30-50 peresenti ngati, panjira, mutanyamula wokwera wina wopita kumalo omwewo. . Pogwiritsa ntchito lingaliro lomweli, mutha kuyitanitsa basi yokwerera kuti ikunyamuleni, komwe mumagawana mtengo waulendo womwewo pakati pa anthu asanu, 10, 20 kapena kupitilira apo. Utumiki woterewu sungochepetsa mtengo kwa wogwiritsa ntchito wamba, koma kujambula kwanuko kungathandizenso makasitomala.

Potengera ntchito zotere, makomiti oyendera anthu m'mizinda ikuluikulu atha kuyamba kuwona kuchepa kwakukulu kwa ndalama za okwera pakati pa 2028-2034 (pamene ntchito zamagalimoto zimanenedweratu kuti zikuyenda bwino). Izi zikachitika, mabungwe oyendetsa maulendowa adzakhala ndi zosankha zochepa.

Ambiri adzayesa kupempha ndalama zambiri zaboma, koma zopempha izi zitha kugwa m'maboma omwe akukumana ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa bajeti yawo nthawi imeneyo (onani tsamba lathu). Tsogolo la Ntchito mndandanda kuti mudziwe chifukwa chake). Ndipo popanda ndalama zowonjezera zaboma, njira yokhayo yomwe yatsala paulendo wapagulu ikhala yodula ntchito ndikudula misewu ya mabasi/misewu kuti isasunthike. Zachisoni, kuchepetsa ntchito kumangowonjezera kufunikira kwa ntchito zogawana nawo mtsogolo, motero kumathandizira kutsika komwe kwafotokozedwa kumene.

Kuti apulumuke, makomiti oyendera anthu ayenera kusankha pakati pa zochitika ziwiri zatsopano:

Choyamba, mabungwe ochepa padziko lonse lapansi, odziwa bwino kwambiri zoyendera anthu adzakhazikitsa mabasi awo opanda dalaivala, okwera mabasi, omwe amathandizidwa ndi boma ndipo motero amatha kupikisana mwachinyengo (mwina kupitilira) ntchito zogawira anthu mwachinsinsi. Ngakhale ntchito yotereyi ingakhale yabwino komanso yofunikira kwa anthu onse, izi sizikhalanso zachilendo chifukwa cha ndalama zoyambira zomwe zimafunika kuti mugule mabasi osayendetsa. Mitengo yomwe ikukhudzidwayo ingakhale mabiliyoni ambiri, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kugulitsa kwa okhometsa msonkho.

Chochitika chachiwiri, komanso chowonjezereka, chidzakhala chakuti makomiti oyendetsa mabasi adzagulitsa mabasi awo kwathunthu ku ntchito zoyendetsa anthu payekha ndikulowa m'gulu loyang'anira ntchito zapaderazi, kuonetsetsa kuti zikugwira ntchito mwachilungamo komanso motetezeka kuti zithandize anthu. Kugulitsa kumeneku kungapangitse chuma chambiri kuti chilole makomiti oyendera anthu kuti aziika mphamvu zawo pamanetiweki awo apansi panthaka.

Mukuwona, mosiyana ndi mabasi, ntchito zokwerera sizingapambane njira zapansi panthaka zikafika pakusuntha mwachangu komanso moyenera anthu ambiri kuchokera kudera lina lamzinda kupita kwina. Sitima zapansi panthaka sizimaima pang'ono, zimakumana ndi nyengo yoipa kwambiri, sizikhala ndi zochitika zapamsewu mwachisawawa, komanso zimakhala njira yabwino kwambiri yothanirana ndi chilengedwe pamagalimoto (ngakhale magalimoto amagetsi). Ndipo poganizira momwe njanji zapansi panthaka zilili zochulukirachulukira komanso zoyendetsedwa bwino, ndipo nthawi zonse zizikhala, ndi njira yamayendedwe yomwe sizingatheke kukumana ndi mpikisano wachinsinsi.

Zonsezi zikutanthauza kuti pofika zaka za m'ma 2030, tiwona tsogolo lomwe ntchito zoyendetsa anthu wamba zidzalamulira mayendedwe apagulu, pomwe makomiti omwe alipo akupitilizabe kulamulira ndikukulitsa mayendedwe apagulu pansi pa nthaka. Ndipo kwa anthu ambiri okhala m’mizinda yamtsogolo, angagwiritse ntchito njira zonse ziwirizi paulendo wawo wa tsiku ndi tsiku.

Thomas Sitimayo imakhala yowona

Kulankhula za subways mwachibadwa kumabweretsa mutu wa sitima. Pazaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, monga momwe zimakhalira nthawi zonse, sitima zapamtunda pang'onopang'ono zizikhala zothamanga, zowoneka bwino, komanso zomasuka. Ma network ambiri a masitima apamtunda azikhalanso okhazikika, aziwongoleredwa patali m'nyumba zoyang'anira njanji zaboma. Koma ngakhale kuti masitima apamtunda ndi onyamula katundu atha kutaya antchito ake onse, masitima apamtunda apitiliza kunyamula gulu lopepuka la antchito.

Ponena za kukula, ndalama zoyendetsera njanji sizikhalabe zocheperako m'maiko ambiri otukuka, kupatula njanji zingapo zatsopano zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito potumiza katundu. Anthu ambiri m'mayikowa amakonda kuyenda pandege ndipo izi sizidzatha mpaka mtsogolo. Komabe, m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, makamaka ku Asia, Africa, ndi South America, njanji zatsopano, zodutsa ku kontinenti zikukonzekera kuti pofika kumapeto kwa 2020s ziwonjezeke kwambiri maulendo a m'madera ndi mgwirizano wa zachuma.

Woyimilira wamkulu pamapulojekiti anjanjiwa adzakhala China. Pokhala ndi ndalama zokwana madola thililiyoni atatu kuti agwiritse ntchito, ikuyang'ana mwachidwi ogwirizana nawo malonda kudzera mu Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) kuti ikhoza kubwereketsa ndalama kuti abweze makampani omanga njanji aku China - pakati pa abwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi.

Maulendo apanyanja ndi mabwato

Mabwato ndi mabwato, monga masitima apamtunda, pang'onopang'ono azikhala othamanga komanso otetezeka. Mitundu ina ya mabwato idzakhala yokhayokha-makamaka omwe akugwira ntchito yonyamula katundu ndi usilikali-koma zonse, mabwato ambiri adzakhalabe oyendetsedwa ndi anthu, kaya chifukwa cha mwambo kapena chifukwa mtengo wopititsa patsogolo ntchito zamanja udzakhala wopanda ndalama.

Momwemonso, zombo zapamadzi zidzakhalanso zoyendetsedwa ndi anthu. Chifukwa cha kupitiriza kwawo ndi kukula kutchuka, sitima zapamadzi zidzakula kwambiri ndipo zidzafuna kuti anthu ambiri aziyang'anira ndi kutumikira alendo ake. Ngakhale kuti kuyenda panyanja paokha kungachepetse mtengo wa ogwira ntchito pang'ono, mabungwe ndi anthu angafune kuti woyendetsa sitimayo azikhalapo nthawi zonse kuti aziwongolera sitima yake panyanja.

Ndege za drone zimayang'anira malo azamalonda

Kuyenda pandege kwakhala njira yayikulu yoyendera maulendo apadziko lonse lapansi kwa anthu ambiri m'zaka zapitazi. Ngakhale kunyumba, ambiri amakonda kuuluka kuchokera kudera lina kupita ku lina.

Pali malo ambiri oyendera kuposa kale. Kugula matikiti ndikosavuta kuposa kale. Mtengo wokwera ndege wakhalabe wopikisana (izi zidzasintha pamene mitengo ya mafuta idzakweranso). Pali zina zowonjezera. Ziwerengero ndi zotetezeka kuuluka lero kuposa kale. Nthawi zambiri, masiku ano ayenera kukhala nthawi yabwino yothawira ndege.

Koma kwa zaka makumi angapo zapitazi, kuthamanga kwa ndege zamakono kwatsika kwa ogula wamba. Kuyenda panyanja ya Atlantic kapena Pacific, kapena kulikonse pankhaniyi, sikunakhale kofulumira kwazaka zambiri.

Palibe chiwembu chachikulu kumbuyo kwa kusapita patsogolo uku. Chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwa ndege zamalonda ndi sayansi komanso mphamvu yokoka kuposa china chilichonse. Kufotokozera kwakukulu komanso kosavuta, kolembedwa ndi Wired's Aatish Bhatia, kumatha kuwerengedwa Pano. Mfundo yake ikupita motere:

Ndege imawuluka chifukwa chophatikiza kukokera ndi kukwera. Ndege imagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu yamafuta kukankhira mpweya kutali ndi ndegeyo kuti ichepetse kukoka ndikupewa kutsika. Ndege imagwiritsanso ntchito mphamvu yamafuta kukankhira mpweya pansi pa thupi lake kuti iumbe ndikuyandama.

Ngati mukufuna kuti ndegeyo ipite mofulumira, izi zidzapangitsa kuti ndegeyo ikhale yokoka kwambiri, ndikukukakamizani kuti muwononge mphamvu zambiri zamafuta kuti mugonjetse kukoka kowonjezera. Ndipotu, ngati mukufuna kuti ndege iziuluka mofulumira, muyenera kukankhira pafupifupi kasanu ndi katatu kuchuluka kwa mpweya. Koma ngati muyesa kuwulutsa ndege pang'onopang'ono, ndiye kuti mumayenera kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zambiri zamafuta kukakamiza mpweya pansi pa thupi kuti usasunthike.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake ndege zonse zimakhala ndi liwiro labwino kwambiri lowuluka lomwe silithamanga kwambiri kapena pang'onopang'ono-malo a goldilocks omwe amawalola kuti aziwuluka bwino popanda kuwononga ndalama zambiri zamafuta. Ndicho chifukwa chake mutha kukwanitsa kuwuluka pakati pa dziko lonse lapansi. Koma ndichifukwa chake mudzakakamizika kupirira ulendo wa maola 20 pambali pa makanda akukuwa kuti atero.

Njira yokhayo yothanirana ndi zofooka izi ndikupeza njira zatsopano zowonjezera efficiently kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa kuukoka ndege iyenera kukankhira kapena kuonjezera kuchuluka kwa kukwera komwe kungapange. Mwamwayi, pali zatsopano zomwe zitha kuchita zomwezo.

Ndege zamagetsi. Ngati muwerenga athu maganizo pa mafuta kuchokera kwa ife Tsogolo la Mphamvu mndandanda, ndiye mudzadziwa kuti mtengo wa gasi udzayamba kukwera kwake kokhazikika komanso kowopsa kumapeto kwa 2010s. Ndipo monga zomwe zidachitika mu 2008, mitengo yamafuta itakwera pafupifupi $150 mbiya, ndege ziwonanso kukwera kwa mtengo wamafuta, kutsatiridwa ndi kuwonongeka kwa matikiti ogulitsidwa. Kuti athane ndi vuto la bankirapuse, sankhani ndege zikuyika ndalama zofufuzira muukadaulo wamagetsi ndi ndege zosakanizidwa.

Gulu la Airbus lakhala likuyesera ndege zamagetsi zatsopano (mwachitsanzo. chimodzi ndi awiri), ndipo ali ndi mapulani omanga malo okhala anthu 90 mu 2020s. Chotchinga chachikulu cha ndege zamagetsi zomwe zikukhala zodziwika bwino ndi mabatire, mtengo wake, kukula kwake, momwe amasungirako, komanso nthawi yoti muyikenso. Mwamwayi, kudzera mu kuyesetsa kwa Tesla, ndi mnzake waku China, BYD, ukadaulo komanso mtengo wa mabatire uyenera kupita patsogolo kwambiri pofika m'ma 2020, zomwe zikupangitsa kuti pakhale ndalama zambiri mu ndege zamagetsi ndi zosakanizidwa. Pakadali pano, mitengo yaposachedwa yandalama iwona ndege zotere zitha kupezeka pamalonda pakati pa 2028-2034.

Ma injini apamwamba. Izi zati, kupita kumagetsi sinkhani yokhayo yandege m'tauniyi - kulinso zamphamvu kwambiri. Patha zaka khumi kuchokera pamene Concorde inapanga ndege yake yomaliza kudutsa nyanja ya Atlantic; tsopano, mtsogoleri wapadziko lonse wazamlengalenga waku US Lockheed Martin, akugwira ntchito pa N+2, injini yokonzedwanso ya supersonic yopangidwira ndege zamalonda zomwe zitha, (DailyMail) "dulani nthawi yoyenda kuchokera ku New York kupita ku Los Angeles ndi theka-kuchokera pa maola asanu mpaka maola 2.5 okha."

Pakadali pano, kampani yaku Britain yazamlengalenga ya Reaction Engines Limited ikupanga makina a injini, wotchedwa SABER, kuti tsiku lina zitha kuwulutsa anthu 300 kulikonse padziko lapansi m'maola anayi okha.

Autopilot pa steroids. O eya, ndipo monga magalimoto, ndege pamapeto pake zimawulukiranso. Ndipotu amatero kale. Anthu ambiri sadziwa kuti ndege zamakono zimanyamuka, kuuluka, ndi kutera paokha 90 peresenti ya nthawiyo. Oyendetsa ndege ambiri sagwiranso ndodo.

Mosiyana ndi magalimoto, kuopa kwa anthu kuthawirako kungachepetse kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndege zamtundu uliwonse mpaka 2030s. Komabe, ma intaneti opanda zingwe ndi njira zolumikizirana zikakhala kuti zikuyenda bwino mpaka oyendetsa ndege amatha kuwuluka ndege munthawi yeniyeni, kuchokera pamtunda wamakilomita mazana (ofanana ndi ma drones amakono), ndiye kuti kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndege zongochitika zokha kudzakhala njira yopulumutsira ndalama zamakampani. ndege zambiri.

Kuyendetsa magalimoto

Panali nthawi yomwe gulu la Quantumrun lidataya magalimoto owuluka ngati chinthu chongopeka m'tsogolo lathu lopeka za sayansi. Koma chodabwitsa n’chakuti, magalimoto ouluka ali pafupi kwambiri ndi zenizeni kuposa mmene ambiri angakhulupirire. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwa ma drones.

Drone tech ikupita patsogolo mwachangu pazantchito zosiyanasiyana wamba, zamalonda, komanso zankhondo. Komabe, izi mfundo zomwe zikupangitsa kuti ma drones atheke sizimangogwira ntchito pama drones ang'onoang'ono, amathanso kugwirira ntchito ma drones akulu mokwanira kunyamula anthu. Pazamalonda, makampani angapo (makamaka omwe amathandizidwa ndi a Google Larry Page) ndizovuta kupanga magalimoto owuluka amalonda kukhala zenizeni, pomwe a Kampani yaku Israeli ikupanga mtundu wankhondo izo ziri molunjika kuchokera kwa Blade Runner.

Magalimoto owuluka oyamba (ma drones) ayamba kuyambika chakumapeto kwa 2020, koma mwina atenga mpaka 2030 zisanakhale zowoneka bwino mumlengalenga wathu.

Kukubwera 'mtambo wamayendedwe'

Pakadali pano, taphunzira kuti magalimoto odziyendetsa okha ndi chiyani komanso momwe angakulire kukhala bizinesi yayikulu yokonda ogula. Tangophunziranso za tsogolo la njira zina zonse zomwe tidzakhalemo m'tsogolomu. Kenako mu mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Zamayendedwe, tiphunzira momwe makina amagalimoto angakhudzire kwambiri momwe makampani m'mafakitale osiyanasiyana amachitira bizinesi. Langizo: Zikutanthauza kuti zinthu zomwe mumagula zaka khumi kuchokera pano zitha kukhala zotsika mtengo kwambiri kuposa masiku ano!