Sustainable ships: A path to emission-free international shipping

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• March 24, 2022

Insight summary

The International Maritime Organization (IMO)'s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from ships by 2050 is steering the industry towards a cleaner future. This shift involves the development of sustainable ships, the exploration of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, and the implementation of regulations to reduce harmful emissions such as NOx and SOx. The long-term implications of these changes include transformations in shipbuilding, transportation infrastructure, global trade dynamics, political alliances, and public awareness.

Sustainable ships context

In 2018, the United Nations (UN) agency IMO committed to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from ships by about 50 percent by 2050. The primary purpose of the IMO is to develop and maintain a comprehensive regulatory framework for international shipping. This move may see sustainability defaulters met with heavy fines, increased fees, and less favorable finance opportunities. Alternatively, investors in sustainable ships may benefit from sustainable financing initiatives.

Presently, most ships are powered by fossil-derived fuels, which result in the emissions of greenhouse gases. The current paradigm is set to change as the IMO has developed the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), an important convention to prevent pollution from ships through the building of sustainable ships. The MARPOL covers the prevention of air pollution from ships, mandating industry participants to either invest in scrubbers or switch to compliant fuels.

The shift towards sustainable shipping is not just a regulatory requirement but a response to the global need to reduce harmful emissions. By enforcing these regulations, the IMO is encouraging the shipping industry to explore alternative energy sources and technologies. Companies that adapt to these changes may find themselves in a favorable position, while those who fail to comply may face challenges. 

Disruptive impact

The international shipping industry, which is responsible for the carriage of more than 80 percent of world trade, contributes only 2 percent of the global carbon dioxide emissions. However, the industry emits aerosols, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur oxides (SOx), into the air and vessel discharges in the sea, which results in air pollution and marine casualties. Moreover, most merchant ships are made of heavy steel instead of lighter aluminum and do not bother with energy-saving measures, such as waste heat recovery or low-friction hull coating.

Sustainable ships are built on renewable energy such as wind, solar, and batteries. While sustainable ships may not come into full force until 2030, more slender ship designs may cut fuel use. For example, the International Transportation Forum (ITF) reported that if the current known renewable energy technologies are deployed, the shipping industry could achieve close to 95 percent decarbonization by 2035.

The European Union (EU) has been a longtime advocate for sustainable international shipping. For example, in 2013, the EU enacted the Ship Recycling Regulation on safe and sound ship recycling. Also, in 2015, the EU adopted Regulation (EU) 2015/757 on the monitoring, reporting, and verification (EU MRV) of carbon dioxide emissions from maritime transport. 

Implications of sustainable ships

Wider implications of sustainable ships may include:

• The development of novel designs in the shipbuilding industry as designers seek to explore ways to build highly efficient sustainable ships, leading to a shift in industry standards and practices.
• The increased use of ocean-based transport for public transport and commercial shipping once its lower carbon profile is achieved in future decades, leading to a transformation in transportation infrastructure and urban planning.
• The passing of stricter emissions and pollution standards for ocean vessels by the 2030s as various industries push the adoption of green vessels, leading to a more regulated and environmentally responsible maritime industry.
• A shift in labor demands within the shipping industry towards more specialized roles in sustainable technology and engineering, leading to new career opportunities and potential challenges in workforce retraining.
• The potential rise in costs associated with compliance to new environmental regulations, leading to changes in pricing strategies and potential impacts on global trade dynamics.
• The emergence of new political alliances and conflicts over the enforcement and compliance of international maritime regulations, leading to potential shifts in global governance and diplomacy.
• A greater focus on education and public awareness regarding sustainable shipping practices, leading to a more informed and engaged citizenry that may influence consumer behavior and policy decisions.
• The potential for coastal communities to experience improved air quality and health benefits as a result of reduced NOx and SOx emissions.

Questions to consider

• Do you think the cost of manufacturing and operating sustainable ships will be lesser or greater than that of conventional ships?
• Do you think the efficiency of sustainable ships, in terms of energy consumption, will be lesser or higher than that of conventional ships?